Reposted by Len MetsonDuncan Webb @duncanwebb.bsky.social · 8hSuper excited to see this labour of love out in the Journal of Political Economy! 🤩 I find that getting neighbours to talk to each other about hiring a transgender worker can on its own drastically reduce discrimination in urban India www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 163
Reposted by Len MetsonMara Weber @marathwe.bsky.social · 23/09/2026📢 CALL FOR PAPERS! We invite submissions for the Political Methodology Seminar Series on frontiers in empirical political science and CSS. We welcome research examining political behaviour, public opinion, comparative politics, and CSS. Research on adjacent topics are also highly encouraged. 11415
Reposted by Len MetsonBen Ginsburg Hix @benghix.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Very excited to announce a new Political Methodology Seminar Series co-hosted by the @lsegovernment.bsky.social, @lsemethodology.bsky.social and European Institute. This bi-weekly series is designed to support ECRs applying state-of-the-art methodological tools to political science research. 096
Reposted by Len MetsonFlorian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Side note: This is not only another very bad result for the CDU, but for the centre-right in general. The FDP doesn't even factor anymore. 1% in MV and likely no more than 2-3% in Berlin. Looks like the populist rebirth of the Free Democrats isn't quite going to plan. 1303
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 18/09/2026Excited to present some new(ish) data tomorrow on the Campaign Strategy, Persuasion and Mobilisation panel (11:30-13:00) at EPOP! #EPOP2026 1133
Reposted by Len MetsonConvergent Opinion @convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 03/08/2026Where did the bounce come from? Progressives returning to Labour 🌹 63% of 2024 Labour voters now say they'd vote Labour, up from 50% in June Labour's losses to the Greens (14%→10%) and Lib Dems (13%→7%) have fallen sharply since Burnham took over 101
Reposted by Len MetsonRobert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/06/2026That doesn't make RCTs "bad" but we could probably rethink how we interpret them with standard estimands. The ATE may not be all that important! 001
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 23/06/2026PM resignation watch followed by a heat health alert is peak UK news cycle 030
Reposted by Len MetsonPaula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 21/06/2026One thing I think the focus on block politics underplays are the (small) voters who 'least liked' party are in their 'block'. 4103
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 05/06/2026Cannot recommend this documentary enough ! www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...bbc.co.ukStoryville - Agent of HappinessA Storyville documentary that follows Amber and Guna, happiness agents for the government of Bhutan, as they travel the mountainous Himalayas, meeting people and measuring how happy they are. 000
Reposted by Len MetsonAdam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 14/05/2026This was the 2024 result in Makerfield, where Josh Simons is standing down to allow Andy Burnham to return to Parliament. It's going to be really, really tough for Burnham to win it. 5213743
Reposted by Len MetsonJane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026This whole by-election will now be about the future PM. Have we ever seen a by-election like it?! It will change the calculations, divert so many resources there, make the choice high stakes. Maybe even a slam dunk result that shows Reform's vulnerabilities. A killer move, if so, for Burnham. 0297
Reposted by Len MetsonRob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 14/05/2026One of the largest drops in nhs waiting lists on record, which no one will now hear about. Opportunity cost from all the leadership turmoil www.england.nhs.uk/2026/05/heal...england.nhs.ukNHS England » “Huge moment” as the health service hits 18-week target amid half-a-million waiting list dropNHS England » “Huge moment” as the health service hits 18-week target amid half-a-million waiting list drop 31372198
Reposted by Len MetsonOwen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/05/2026The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026... 61831309
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 14/05/2026Early individual-level survey data from around the local elections 👇 allows us to start understanding what drove the huge LAB (& CON) losses, which the ward-level data we've seen so far just can't tell us 141
Reposted by Len MetsonSteve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026Nationally, this suggests Labour vote disproportionately stayed at home or went to another left party. Massive collapse to Plaid in Wales. Reform turned out an energised base with some switchers on top. Greens also. Lab->Reform exists but not the major part of the picture. 36329
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 12/05/2026Does anyone know of (/have) individual-level data on "split ballot" voting (i.e. voting for candidates from different parties) in English local elections? 121
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 12/05/2026Campaign Lab are hiring for 3 new roles - Great opportunity for anyone from an academic or applied research background who's excited about running RCTs and doing data science with progressive campaigns in the UK! campaignlab.uk/work-with-us/campaignlab.ukWork with us - Campaign LabWe are an experimental, research-driven organisation. Our work includes applied research, pilot projects, and hackdays alongside partnerships with MPs, campaigners and progressive organisations. We ar... 195
Reposted by Len MetsonDylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 11/05/2026🧵/ Let's put Labour's local election results into perspective... They lost 58% of the seats they were defending, the 10th worst performance for any party in the last sixty years and the 5th worst for a govt. This compares to the Tories losing 48-53% in the locals prior to their landslide defeats. 15619
Reposted by Len MetsonYusuf @yusufimaadkhan.com · 08/05/2026Overcoming the ecological fallacy by appealing to the world spirit 121
Reposted by Len MetsonMarta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 08/05/2026This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home. The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low... 1/2 1198
Reposted by Len MetsonDylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 19/04/2026Ahead of the local elections, here's an easy guide of how best to assess the results as they come in, including the best metrics to use and some historical benchmarks. It's on the longer side, but is split into sections and filled with lots of (hopefully) useful data, and completely free-to-read.dylandifford.substack.comHow to assess the 2026 local electionsA cut-out-and-keep guide of benchmarks for the 2026 council elections 79835
Reposted by Len MetsonSara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 08/05/2026British politics is resembling the rest of Europe: • Multi-party competition has replaced two-party dominance • Challengers are on the rise, esp. the populist right • Political realignment centres on identity politics (incl Brexit) But FPTP is poorly suited to this fragmentation 1022355
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 08/05/2026This but "ecological fallacy"static.klipy.comSteve Ballmer's Iconic 'Developers!' ChantAlt: Steve Ballmer's Iconic 'Developers!' Chant 021
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 08/05/2026www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...politicshome.comMisunderstood, over interpreted, unrepresentative: How to read the local election resultsThe internet will be teeming with hot takes as soon as the first declarations come in on Friday morning. To help you navigate a weekend of noise, h... 021
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 27/04/2026Really helpful framework for thinking about the utility of survey experiments for practitioners by @benmtappin.bsky.social 👇 www.benmtappin.com/publication/...benmtappin.comThinking clearly about the value of survey pretesting for practitioners | Ben TappinA research note in which I articulate a simple framework to try and facilitate clearer thinking about the value of survey pretesting for practitioners. 141
Reposted by Len MetsonInstitute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 01/04/2026🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇 216989
Reposted by Len MetsonSara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 01/04/2026Delighted our paper (with an amazing group of co-authors) is forthcoming in the APSR Takeaway for Labour and other centre-left parties: fixing public services is key to reducing support for the populist right 👇 414053
Reposted by Len MetsonJoris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 01/04/2026📄Published Today in Nature: 500 researchers reproduced 100 studies across the social & behavioral sciences to assess their analytical robustness (led by @balazsaczel.bsky.social & @szaszibarnabas.bsky.social). Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41... Preprint: osf.io/preprints/me... TLDR: 1/11 29148
Reposted by Len MetsonPublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/03/2026🚨 New POAL brief from @victoraraujo.bsky.social & @miriamsorace.bsky.social out now: how to properly evaluate the causal impact of shocks, debates, and political crises on public opinion. Diagnostics, pitfalls, examples … all in three pages! Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_U... 1186
Reposted by Len MetsonPublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 30/03/2026AJPS article from @kenbenoit.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Conor Laver, Michael Laver, and Jinshuai Ma on using LLMs to analyse political texts. 🧵 1/8 Social science research requires reliable extraction of information from texts to identify authors' preferences on various policies and issues. 12713
Reposted by Len MetsonAnton Könneke @antonkoenneke.de · 23/03/2026Turns out sorting below the threshold is quite hard 2201
Reposted by Len MetsonHOPE not hate @hopenothate.org.uk · 23/03/2026HOPE not hate stands in solidarity with Jewish communities in Golders Green and around the country after last night's arson attack. 017856
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 20/03/2026This cool website tracks and collates union wins & achievements (partially) through automated means - fun to browse & could make for a really interesting dataset! watcha.sitewatcha.siteWhat Have Unions Done For Us? - Tracking Union Wins across the UKTracking Union Wins across the UK 110
Reposted by Len MetsonEPOP @psaepop.bsky.social · 17/03/2026The call for papers for #EPOP2026 in Liverpool (17–19 September) is now open! We welcome submissions across all areas of research on elections, public opinion and parties. Deadline: 26 April Submit your proposals here: www.liverpool.ac.uk/politics/eve... @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social 13131
Reposted by Len MetsonBen Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026As @bwalker.uk points out at the other place, progressives being undecided until late *could* be coming up in polls as they will be Don't Knows and will need squeezing for vote intention. We already know that DKs look quite a bit like Labour voters in policy views. So an undercount on the left? 2222
Reposted by Len MetsonBen Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...newstatesman.comThe rise of the undecided voterExclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided 7455169
Reposted by Len MetsonJack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/03/2026In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why? My new post explains how to count like a political scientist: using the *effective* number of parties. jack-bailey.co.uk/blog/what-is... 093
Reposted by Len MetsonYouGov @yougov.co.uk · 16/03/2026A headline in the Times was inaccurate and they have issued this correction: “YouGov is not making changes to its methodology or to any previously published results. We are happy to make this clear” We are not changing our methodology or results, which accurately predicted Reform's vote at GE2024 724477
Reposted by Len MetsonChris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 17/03/2026If I had to guess (always a bad idea) I suspect there would be changes to the freedom of expression and freedom of association components following on from the Public Order Act 2023 and use of the proscription powers under the Terrorism Act (2/2) 391
Reposted by Len MetsonChris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 17/03/2026The UK decline (shown below) is particularly marked. It's surprising to see a decline to below levels of the 1970s, when there was (for example) internment without trial in parts of the UK (1/2) 44830
Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 17/03/2026A bit of data science, a bit of social history, what more could you ask for? Another excellent blog by @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...open.substack.comLondon's Divide Was Called Character. It Was Actually Policy.I built a machine learning model to find London's divide and you can enter your postcode to see which side you're on. We've been blaming the wrong people for it. 0145
Reposted by Len MetsonDrew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 25/02/2026New w/@scottclifford.bsky.social. Lots of work uses agree-disagree scales, and a lit review shows these are 1) frequently just measured in one direction (agree = higher trait) and 2) correlated with each other. This has potentially big issues for conclusions. link.springer.com/article/10.1...link.springer.comAcquiescence Bias and Criterion Validity: Problems and Potential Solutions for Agree-Disagree Scales - Political BehaviorPolitical Behavior - Scholars frequently measure dispositions like populism, conspiracism, racism, and sexism by asking survey respondents whether they agree or disagree with statements... 411249
Reposted by Len MetsonWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 07/03/2026This is really worth reading, not least as it highlights how the 'Hero Voter' idea has been twisted beyond all recognition in most commentary and Westminster briefing. 45915
Reposted by Len MetsonRob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 03/03/2026As Maria Sobolewska and I first said in Brexitland, the legacy parties under FPP are like Tinkerbell - they need belief to survive. if people cease to believe they see the best and only options, they can die fast. Is this the moment Labour’s Tinkerbell dies? 510235
Reposted by Len MetsonRob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 28/02/2026Well, no, they’re not just as wrong. The bigger error is not seeing that “trying to win over voters from a party on the opposite end of the spectrum, whose values your core voters oppose” is not same as “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like.” 691070245