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Len Metson

@lenmetson.com
537 followers 921 following 90 posts

PhD candidate @LSEGovernment 📚 Interested in campaigns, applied data science and field experiments 💻 he/him 🌐 lenmetson.com

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Reposted by Len Metson
Duncan Webb @duncanwebb.bsky.social · 8h
Super excited to see this labour of love out in the Journal of Political Economy! 🤩 I find that getting neighbours to talk to each other about hiring a transgender worker can on its own drastically reduce discrimination in urban India www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Mara Weber @marathwe.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📢 CALL FOR PAPERS! We invite submissions for the Political Methodology Seminar Series on frontiers in empirical political science and CSS. We welcome research examining political behaviour, public opinion, comparative politics, and CSS. Research on adjacent topics are also highly encouraged.
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Ben Ginsburg Hix @benghix.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Very excited to announce a new Political Methodology Seminar Series co-hosted by the @lsegovernment.bsky.social, @lsemethodology.bsky.social and European Institute. This bi-weekly series is designed to support ECRs applying state-of-the-art methodological tools to political science research.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Side note: This is not only another very bad result for the CDU, but for the centre-right in general. The FDP doesn't even factor anymore. 1% in MV and likely no more than 2-3% in Berlin. Looks like the populist rebirth of the Free Democrats isn't quite going to plan.
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 18/09/2026
Excited to present some new(ish) data tomorrow on the Campaign Strategy, Persuasion and Mobilisation panel (11:30-13:00) at EPOP! #EPOP2026
Screenshot reading:

Socially-mediated campaign contact: An RCT testing the spillover of SMS messages in the 2025 English local elections

Abstract

The spillover of campaign contact within households is well established, but communication is necessary for effects to spillover to neighbours. Previous work treats spillover as a by-product rather than the primary purpose of contact. However, campaigns are increasingly employing ‘relational’ strategies where they ask supporters mediate contact by communicating with their personal networks. Additionally, existing causally-identified research has modelled spillover in single constituencies, limiting exploration of moderating contextual factors. One underexplored factor that could moderate neighbourhood communication - and thus spillover - is rurality. This paper presents national field experiment conducted with a British political party during the May 2025 local elections. Party members across all areas with elections (N=27,330) were randomly assigned at the neighbourhood level to receive SMS messages asking them to remind their housemates and neighbours to vote. By measuring effects on supporters and their social ties across urban and rural areas, this paper tests the effectiveness of mobilising supporters’ social influence and contributes to the literature on how networks and context moderate political behaviour.
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Convergent Opinion @convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Where did the bounce come from? Progressives returning to Labour 🌹 63% of 2024 Labour voters now say they'd vote Labour, up from 50% in June Labour's losses to the Greens (14%→10%) and Lib Dems (13%→7%) have fallen sharply since Burnham took over
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
That doesn't make RCTs "bad" but we could probably rethink how we interpret them with standard estimands. The ATE may not be all that important!
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 23/06/2026
PM resignation watch followed by a heat health alert is peak UK news cycle
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
One thing I think the focus on block politics underplays are the (small) voters who 'least liked' party are in their 'block'.
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 05/06/2026
Cannot recommend this documentary enough ! www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
bbc.co.uk
Storyville - Agent of Happiness
A Storyville documentary that follows Amber and Guna, happiness agents for the government of Bhutan, as they travel the mountainous Himalayas, meeting people and measuring how happy they are.
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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
This was the 2024 result in Makerfield, where Josh Simons is standing down to allow Andy Burnham to return to Parliament. It's going to be really, really tough for Burnham to win it.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
This whole by-election will now be about the future PM. Have we ever seen a by-election like it?! It will change the calculations, divert so many resources there, make the choice high stakes. Maybe even a slam dunk result that shows Reform's vulnerabilities. A killer move, if so, for Burnham.
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
One of the largest drops in nhs waiting lists on record, which no one will now hear about. Opportunity cost from all the leadership turmoil www.england.nhs.uk/2026/05/heal...
england.nhs.uk
NHS England » “Huge moment” as the health service hits 18-week target amid half-a-million waiting list drop
NHS England » “Huge moment” as the health service hits 18-week target amid half-a-million waiting list drop
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Chart showing the lading party by ward % age 50 or older and % with a managerial or professional occupation. Between 2021 and 2024 Labour won wards with a majority of young or working-class voters, in 2026 the Greens won younger wards while Reform UK won older working class wards
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 14/05/2026
Early individual-level survey data from around the local elections 👇 allows us to start understanding what drove the huge LAB (& CON) losses, which the ward-level data we've seen so far just can't tell us
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Nationally, this suggests Labour vote disproportionately stayed at home or went to another left party. Massive collapse to Plaid in Wales. Reform turned out an energised base with some switchers on top. Greens also. Lab->Reform exists but not the major part of the picture.
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 12/05/2026
Does anyone know of (/have) individual-level data on "split ballot" voting (i.e. voting for candidates from different parties) in English local elections?
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 12/05/2026
Campaign Lab are hiring for 3 new roles - Great opportunity for anyone from an academic or applied research background who's excited about running RCTs and doing data science with progressive campaigns in the UK! campaignlab.uk/work-with-us/
campaignlab.uk
Work with us - Campaign Lab
We are an experimental, research-driven organisation. Our work includes applied research, pilot projects, and hackdays alongside partnerships with MPs, campaigners and progressive organisations. We ar...
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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
🧵/ Let's put Labour's local election results into perspective... They lost 58% of the seats they were defending, the 10th worst performance for any party in the last sixty years and the 5th worst for a govt. This compares to the Tories losing 48-53% in the locals prior to their landslide defeats.
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 11/05/2026
👇
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Yusuf @yusufimaadkhan.com · 08/05/2026
Overcoming the ecological fallacy by appealing to the world spirit
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home. The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low... 1/2
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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Ahead of the local elections, here's an easy guide of how best to assess the results as they come in, including the best metrics to use and some historical benchmarks. It's on the longer side, but is split into sections and filled with lots of (hopefully) useful data, and completely free-to-read.
dylandifford.substack.com
How to assess the 2026 local elections
A cut-out-and-keep guide of benchmarks for the 2026 council elections
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
British politics is resembling the rest of Europe: • Multi-party competition has replaced two-party dominance • Challengers are on the rise, esp. the populist right • Political realignment centres on identity politics (incl Brexit) But FPTP is poorly suited to this fragmentation
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 08/05/2026
This but "ecological fallacy"
static.klipy.com
Steve Ballmer's Iconic 'Developers!' Chant
Alt: Steve Ballmer's Iconic 'Developers!' Chant
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 08/05/2026
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
Misunderstood, over interpreted, unrepresentative: How to read the local election results
The internet will be teeming with hot takes as soon as the first declarations come in on Friday morning. To help you navigate a weekend of noise, h...
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 27/04/2026
Really helpful framework for thinking about the utility of survey experiments for practitioners by @benmtappin.bsky.social 👇 www.benmtappin.com/publication/...
benmtappin.com
Thinking clearly about the value of survey pretesting for practitioners | Ben Tappin
A research note in which I articulate a simple framework to try and facilitate clearer thinking about the value of survey pretesting for practitioners.
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 01/04/2026
Not interested 😂
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 01/04/2026
2-3 on aggregate 4-1 on the posts #CHEARS #UWCL
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Delighted our paper (with an amazing group of co-authors) is forthcoming in the APSR Takeaway for Labour and other centre-left parties: fixing public services is key to reducing support for the populist right 👇
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
📄Published Today in Nature: 500 researchers reproduced 100 studies across the social & behavioral sciences to assess their analytical robustness (led by @balazsaczel.bsky.social & @szaszibarnabas.bsky.social). Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41... Preprint: osf.io/preprints/me... TLDR: 1/11
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Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
🚨 New POAL brief from @victoraraujo.bsky.social & @miriamsorace.bsky.social out now: how to properly evaluate the causal impact of shocks, debates, and political crises on public opinion. Diagnostics, pitfalls, examples … all in three pages! Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_U...
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Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
AJPS article from @kenbenoit.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Conor Laver, Michael Laver, and Jinshuai Ma on using LLMs to analyse political texts. 🧵 1/8 Social science research requires reliable extraction of information from texts to identify authors' preferences on various policies and issues.
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Anton Könneke @antonkoenneke.de · 23/03/2026
Turns out sorting below the threshold is quite hard
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HOPE not hate @hopenothate.org.uk · 23/03/2026
HOPE not hate stands in solidarity with Jewish communities in Golders Green and around the country after last night's arson attack.
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 20/03/2026
This cool website tracks and collates union wins & achievements (partially) through automated means - fun to browse & could make for a really interesting dataset! watcha.site
watcha.site
What Have Unions Done For Us? - Tracking Union Wins across the UK
Tracking Union Wins across the UK
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EPOP @psaepop.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The call for papers for #EPOP2026 in Liverpool (17–19 September) is now open! We welcome submissions across all areas of research on elections, public opinion and parties. Deadline: 26 April Submit your proposals here: www.liverpool.ac.uk/politics/eve... @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
The Royal Liver Building, Liverpool
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
As @bwalker.uk points out at the other place, progressives being undecided until late *could* be coming up in polls as they will be Don't Knows and will need squeezing for vote intention. We already know that DKs look quite a bit like Labour voters in policy views. So an undercount on the left?
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
newstatesman.com
The rise of the undecided voter
Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/03/2026
In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why? My new post explains how to count like a political scientist: using the *effective* number of parties. jack-bailey.co.uk/blog/what-is...
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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 16/03/2026
A headline in the Times was inaccurate and they have issued this correction: “YouGov is not making changes to its methodology or to any previously published results. We are happy to make this clear” We are not changing our methodology or results, which accurately predicted Reform's vote at GE2024
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
If I had to guess (always a bad idea) I suspect there would be changes to the freedom of expression and freedom of association components following on from the Public Order Act 2023 and use of the proscription powers under the Terrorism Act (2/2)
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The UK decline (shown below) is particularly marked. It's surprising to see a decline to below levels of the 1970s, when there was (for example) internment without trial in parts of the UK (1/2)
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 17/03/2026
A bit of data science, a bit of social history, what more could you ask for? Another excellent blog by @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
open.substack.com
London's Divide Was Called Character. It Was Actually Policy.
I built a machine learning model to find London's divide and you can enter your postcode to see which side you're on. We've been blaming the wrong people for it.
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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 12/03/2026
Oh no, someone left the testing constituency in!
Screenshot of the Wikipedia page for Southampton Test
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
New w/@scottclifford.bsky.social. Lots of work uses agree-disagree scales, and a lit review shows these are 1) frequently just measured in one direction (agree = higher trait) and 2) correlated with each other. This has potentially big issues for conclusions. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Acquiescence Bias and Criterion Validity: Problems and Potential Solutions for Agree-Disagree Scales - Political Behavior
Political Behavior - Scholars frequently measure dispositions like populism, conspiracism, racism, and sexism by asking survey respondents whether they agree or disagree with statements...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
This is really worth reading, not least as it highlights how the 'Hero Voter' idea has been twisted beyond all recognition in most commentary and Westminster briefing.
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
As Maria Sobolewska and I first said in Brexitland, the legacy parties under FPP are like Tinkerbell - they need belief to survive. if people cease to believe they see the best and only options, they can die fast. Is this the moment Labour’s Tinkerbell dies?
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Well, no, they’re not just as wrong. The bigger error is not seeing that “trying to win over voters from a party on the opposite end of the spectrum, whose values your core voters oppose” is not same as “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like.”
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