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Paula Surridge

@psurridge.bsky.social
17K followers 616 following 3.5K posts

Professor of Political Sociology, University of Bristol British politics, elections, public opinion and (a lot of) political values. SubStack: pollingsnippets.substack.com/?r=4a6…

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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 12h
Well creepy or not, my husband and son are currently tracking son's phone across the city because he left it on the bus (again). Yes there is Benny Hill music playing in my head
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 17h
Caught between 'how is it not Friday yet' and 'how is it already October'
static.klipy.com
Spiraling Clock Optical Illusion
ALT: Spiraling Clock Optical Illusion
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 20h
Redesigning my public opinion course for next semester. I have some topics like 'Are the British public tolerant?' Wondering how annoyed I will be with myself by March if I change one to 'Do the British public want to rejoin the EU?'
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Voters can respond, as they did when Thatcher was PM, to a leader willing to take tough decisions in the short term that seem to have a pay off in the long term. If Burnham can combine his likeability with her toughness--not an easy trick to pull off--then Labour has at least a chance of reelection.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Might be back on More seriously don't read too much into movements between single polls from the same pollster and small variations between pollsters. All compatible with three parties on ~ 21-24% of the vote. And with potentially large impacts from tactical voting
More in Common poll with Labour 27% Conservative 22 and Reform 21
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The interesting question is what Reform do. Electoral reform was in their 2024 manifesto before they topped polls and started winning under FPTP.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
My instinct is 'triple-lock' doesn't play the same as 'winter fuel allowance' WFA is easy to grasp - the triple lock is not. WFA is understood as a welfare payment and so hits the liberal-left instinct to preserve 'benefits' in a way triple lock doesn't. Could of course be wrong - we will see.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Thanks to this image I now have a ear worm of Atomic Kitten's Whole Again
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
So about that early election...
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is fun - and also very difficult to keep to 9 across 40 years of gaming. Amazingly five of them have sequels, remakes or expansions coming in the next few months even though they were originally released 20+ years ago.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
It would be quite the plot twist if the large crowd of men dressed in black turned out to be a group of patriots whose sat nav went awry.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Every year I am a little disappointed my sons don't know all the words to Christmas carols the way I do from being force fed them every year at school. So I am in favour of this provided it is In the Bleak Midwinter in July.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This afternoon's rabbit hole, re-industrialisation, post materialism political values and the knowledge economy. Any recommended reading?
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The best thing about this clip is that I did a double take at the chancellor being described as 'he' in much the same way as when someone talks about the queen in the present tense.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I know people said the electorate wanted hope...but I don't think that is quite what was meant.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I have found my new automated email response (h/t @helenebismarck.bsky.social )
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I think we might need a few focus groups on whether 'northern' is a neutral term.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
See, I told you Ed Davey needed a by election - but a Westminster one would be more effective
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
My almost 18 year old son is studying Philosophy and Psychology A levels and wants to continue Philosophy to degree level and that is about as much fun to live with as you'd imagine.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I'm not sure that's necessarily the case Labour weren't in power in 2019 but the LibDems felt they suffered from a fear of a Corbyn led government. Why can't they benefit from a fear of a Conservative government cosying up to Reform?
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Because the two parties are like chalk & cheese, sociologically & geographically, Reform are rarely within 20% of a LibDem incumbent so only start to contest LibDem seats after their top 100 targets (Newton Abbott, Devon is 102nd) once heading for 200 gains (4-5 more). But LD 72 crucial in hung parl
There are no Lib Dem-held constituencies in the top 100 Reform target seats – though Newton Abbot in Devon would be Reform’s 102nd if the seats were ranked arithmetically. Reform came in third place, 9% behind the Conservative runner-up and 14% short of the Liberal Democrats. Only three more Lib Dem seats would feature if Reform stretched its target list to 200 seats with Frome 161st, Torbay 174th and Hazel Grove 175th by the arithmetic of the last election. And those might be harder seats to target than similarly long-shot Conservative or Labour seats, where Reform could hope to convert more voters from the incumbent party.

In Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe in Wales, Reform finished in fourth place, but just 16% behind the Lib Dem winner, making it 208th on an
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Again, stop conceding the talking points of the right. The description 'unvetted' comes up in right wing Facebook posts constantly. This really isn't about security checks. Have we 'vetted' masked men intimidating RNLI volunteers?
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Grief is a difficult emotion, and from personal experience this is especially the case in families where relationships have been complex. Not experiencing in the expected way doesn't make you a monster. I can't see how it is in the public interest to rake over it though.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Policy development by Facebook comments. Guess it'll be giving police the power to give kids a clip round the ear next. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Parents could face prison for child's crimes under justice reforms, minister says
The reforms to Parenting Orders could also see parents losing benefits, Jake Richards MP told the Times.
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
LibDems appear in strong position to consolidate +64 gains they made in 2024, eso if Labour/Green tempted voters see them as pref local alternative to Cons/Reform, & some disaffected moderate Tories not put off Beyond consolidation [+marginal gains if right fragments more] difficult in this cycle
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Resharing this - a quick look at how the Lib Dem vote has changed since 2024. And why headline polls aren't the key story. pollingsnippets.substack.com/p/libdems-re...
pollingsnippets.substack.com
LibDems Revisited
Since the 2024 general election the Liberal Democrat vote share in national polls has remained relatively flat, with calls for Ed Davey to be more radical amid concerns about the visibility of the par...
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
As promised, if a little later than I anticipated pollingsnippets.substack.com/p/libdems-re...
pollingsnippets.substack.com
LibDems Revisited
Since the 2024 general election the Liberal Democrat vote share in national polls has remained relatively flat, with calls for Ed Davey to be more radical amid concerns about the visibility of the par...
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
If other parties were able (willing even) to make this stick to Reform and Restore I think it would have a significant impact on support. RNLI is a very widely supported institution.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Thanks to Stephen, I was reminded that people don't think about the Lib Dems enough and have revisited some analysis to see where 2024 Lib Dem voters are now. Post coming tomorrow but key take away - Ed Davey could do with a by election in a place they were a close second sometime soon.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Unless she has had to deal with the NHS more than once a week in which case it is entirely understandable.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
It's the start of the academic year, and so of course I am browsing Christmas decorations in the hope of convincing myself it isn't far to the end of term. I have questions about this description though
Description of Christmas ornament as 'true-to-life' North Pole preparation
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
BBC News - UK to return to cooler wetter weather. My local weather forecast next week.
Weather forecast showing dry, sunny and 23-24 degrees
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
First I misread this as involve more housework, and honestly I could get behind that. But more coursework when we can't work out what to do with the AI issue at degree level sounds quite problematic
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
According to this reply this form of protest would not work without the direct mailing envelopes provided by Reform UK Haven't deleted the original, because the intention was to highlight the sentiment/action from facebook. bsky.app/profile/ab-i...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...
cambridge.org
EPOP collection
EPOP collection
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Worth remembering whenever we create/see breakdowns of anything by Brexit vote without a too young to vote category.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
A very British form of resistance popping up on Facebook today. People buying RNLI Christmas cards to send to a Reform UK free post address.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Start of University visiting weeks with my Year 13 son. He seems to have stumbled on a new 'widening participation' index based on the heights of the other prospective students (for context he is 5'7 and has noticed that height and class correlate)
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
So about that incredible new bowling attack that was going to win the Ashes next year...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Thanks to everyone who's donated. Those of us lucky enough to have grown up and to live by the sea - and so see how rough and cold it gets in the autumn and winter - realise again and again just how brave these folk must be to go out and do what they do.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Something very strange happened yesterday. I got a GP appointment within an hour of making the request - actually seen in person within an hour. The item prescribed was available at my pharmacy *and* it seems to have actually stopped the pain.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Response on facebook to a post about a poor road finish after pot holes had been fixed (and this is on the milder side)
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
💥 NEW REPORT 💥 📖 The latest edition of our Policy Landscape 2026 with @resolutionfoundation.org is now available It's is an invaluable one-stop shop explaining the major policy challenges the confronting the UK and the difficult choices that lie ahead 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Policy landscape 2026 - UK in a changing Europe
As Parliament returns from recess, there is no shortage of policy challenges confronting Andy Burnham’s new government. To spell out the difficult choices that lie ahead, Resolution Foundation and UK ...
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Must be tired, spent quite some time wondering about Living Populism Vs the undead variety.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The news isn't improving, and it is the wrong time of year to retreat into cricket.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Can't decide whether the footage from Dover or of the audience and protestor at the Reform conference is the most chilling.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Getting on for 9 hours now. The supposedly pre by GP urgent Gynae assessment has become 'wait your turn for the ED doctor'. 🤬
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
This place is so bad. Third visit in 5 days for an elderly person recovering from major surgery, with a hospital acquired infection. This time sent by GP supposedly direct for assessment. Three hours later and we haven't even seen a nurse.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Start of the academic year so of course it is time for more adventures in NHS land. Utterly grim in A and E again. Despite assurances we were going direct to a ward from the ambulance 🤬
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I think it is true that for some voters the stories around Reform UK really don't matter but for others they do. The electoral impact is to lower the ceiling for their vote rather than to remove it completely. But a party with a ceiling at < 20% is much weaker than one with a ceiling at 25-30%
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