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Joris Frese

@fresejoris.bsky.social
4K followers 1.8K following 285 posts

Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow in Politics at the University of Oxford. www.jorisfrese.com

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Reposted by Joris Frese
Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 10h
New from Hainmueller and Laitin on the causal effects of becoming a citizen on wages. Short story: the observational ests overstate the premium relative to the experimental ests. Authors conclude "observational averages should not be used as causal forecasts for policy" doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
screen shot of the article with "observational averages shouldnot be used as causal forecasts for policy" highlighted
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Luis Sattelmayer @luissattelmayer.bsky.social · 18h
Today, @malojan.bsky.social and I are launching the PartySOME website at partysome.org, an open, interactive platform for exploring how much political parties communicate online and what they talk about 🎤💻📊
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Marcos Echevarria-Eirea @marcoseche.bsky.social · 18h
Announcing Round 1 of the 𝐌𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐢𝐤𝐓𝐨𝐤 (𝐌𝐏𝐏𝐓𝐢𝐤𝐓𝐨𝐤) dataset! It provides manually collected TikTok handles for MPs and parties in 17 Western democracies (elected as of December 2025). Dataset: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/mp... Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf... 1/3
dataverse.harvard.edu
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Denis Cohen @denis-cohen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
📄 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social: “From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection” 👥 with @krausewe.bsky.social and @aigneranna.bsky.social 🔗 doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Over the past two years, I4R partnered with Psychological Science (@psychscience.bsky.social) on a large reproducibility project. 67 independent teams reproduced 64 articles published in 2024–2025, about 44% of eligible papers. Paper: www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10... Here's what we learned 🧵
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Call for Proposals: EPSS Copenhagen 2027 Pre-Conference Workshops! We're seeking proposals for workshops on 23 June 2027, at the University of Copenhagen. Whether you are a senior scholar or an ECR, we want your expertise! ⏳Deadline: 13 Nov 2026 🔗Apply here: epssnet.org/2027-copenha... #EPSS2027
epssnet.org
Pre-Conference Workshops EPSS 2027
Submit your proposal for a pre-conference workshop at the EPSS 2027 Conference in Copenhagen to lead focused discussions and skill-building sessions for political science scholars.
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Mohsen Mosleh @mmosleh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New paper: In Nov 2025, X began showing where accounts actually operate from. We studied 8,200 politically engaged accounts claiming to be in the US half were revealed to be elsewhere What happened when the mismatch went public? @yuweichuai.bsky.social @thomasrenault.bsky.social @dgrand.bsky.social
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📄 New working paper w. Alex De Juan, @felixhaass.bsky.social & Henry Thomson: We study Weimar Germany in 1932 to ask whether far right electoral success pacifies extremist movements - or can fuel violence when mandates do not translate into power. osf.io/preprints/so...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Extremely impressive field experiment by @nmalhotra.bsky.social et al. had few effects on election attitudes among conservatives in TX despite being "exposed to an average of 20 online videos, 18.5 cable TV videos, 23.9 display ads, 3 text messages, and 3 postcards" www.science.org/doi/full/10....
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Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Interesting new research on the effects and content of Instagram Reels and podcasts ceciliaysui.com/files/Influe... preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g... link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007...
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vincentholst.bsky.social @vincentholst.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
In 2023, @nature.com published 'Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time', receiving world-wide media attention. Our Matters Arising, published after a 32 month delay (more on that soon), shows that the reported decline can largely be attributed to dataset artefacts. 🧵
The average CD_5 index per year for Web of Science. The original Park et al. decline (top curve) becomes essentially flat (bottom curve) when removing papers with CD_5=1. Those papers largely correspond to dataset artefacts.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
🔥🔥🔥 noahdasanaike.github.io/sage.html
The Small-Area Global Elections (SAGE)
Dataset
Noah Dasanaike*
June 30, 2026
Conditionally Accepted at Nature Scientific Data
Abstract
Cross-national research on electoral behavior has been bounded by the granularity of comparative election data. Existing archives aggregate to constituency or country level, omit spatial information, or restrict coverage to a small set of well-documented democracies. The Small-Area Global Elections (SAGE) dataset collects lower-house parliamentary and presidential returns for 110 countries and territories at the smallest unit each electoral authority publishes, geocodes the units, and harmonizes party and candidate identifiers across languages. For most countries the unit is a polling station with fewer than a thousand voters; the full dataset carries roughly ten billion votes cast across more than eight million units. The dataset is openly available in tabular and spatial formats, with companion R and Python packages providing direct access. SAGE supports spatial analyses of electoral behavior across democracies and hybrid regimes at a granularity not previously available for cross-national comparison.Map
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Maksym Polyakov 🇺🇦🌻 @maksympolyakov.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
what is the longest time between submission and publication in an academic journal?
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Replication Research (R2) @r2journal.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Our new website is now live at www.replicationresearch.org - See what is currently under review, learn more about who we are, customize article appearance, and view lay summaries, viewership stats, etc. for each article. Read more at www.replicationresearch.org/announcement....
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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Replicate everything? Interested in thoughts on this idea: shiny2.wzb.eu/ipi/replicate/ At @wzb.bsky.social we've been developing a protocol for replication files for empirical papers to: ✅be readable by machines ✅keep humans in the loop
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Marc Debus @marcdebus.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
In this oa contribution to Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Jale Tosun, Nils Schütz, Elisabeth Maikranz and I show that the programmatic gap between churches and Christian Democratic parties in Germany on the issue of migration has widened over the years. rdcu.be/ft6wy /1
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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Should immigrants be allowed to vote? This is a highly politically charged question. In a new research paper and substack piece, me and @tarekjaziri.bsky.social test the biggest objection to letting foreign residents vote locally, and find it doesn't hold up. 🧵 simonhix.substack.com/p/why-not-gi...
simonhix.substack.com
Why Not Give Immigrants the Right to Vote?
The fear that allowing foreign residents to vote in local elections would benefit left-wing parties turns out to be wrong.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
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Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
The debate about Borjas/Breznau's paper on ideological bias in migration research is out now @i4replication.bsky.social. With a comment by Katrin Auspurg & Josef Brüderl: hdl.handle.net/10419/341575 And a reply by the original authors: hdl.handle.net/10419/341576
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Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · 22/06/2026
Representativeness and response validity across nine opt-in online samples
dlvr.it
Representativeness and response validity across nine opt-in online samples
Nature Human Behaviour, Published online: 22 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02438-zStagnaro et al. compare nine opt-in participant samples on measures of response validity, representativeness and professionalism. They find substantial variation across samples and offer guidance for choosing samples based on the research question.
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Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Are preferences for authoritarian rule individual predispositions—or can they spread socially? Using field + survey experiments in the Norwegian Armed Forces, we show that openness to strongman rule can spread socially. American Journal of Political Science: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
The increasing popularity of strongman rule in democratic societies underscores the need to explore how authoritarian regime preferences might spread socially. We assess the role of social influence ...
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Yiqing Xu @yiqingxu.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
🧵 Introducing ReproAI, an author-facing agentic AI plugin for replication packages: reproai.org We built this tool to help authors prepare replication packages before submission, w/ @leoyangyang.bsky.social.
reproai.org
ReproAI: the plugin for reproducible replication packages
An author-facing AI plugin that helps you prepare a cleaner, reproducible replication package before submission.
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
🔄 Starting shortly – EPSS Roundtable 1 on Standards for Replication in Political Science with Daniel Bischhof, Yara Bochkareva, Andrew Eggers, Joris Frese & Macartan Humphreys from 10:50 - 12:30 | Bar 2 (ICC)
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Now traveling to @epssnet.bsky.social I would like to draw your attention to a panel on: Standards for Replication in Political Science 10:50-12:30 Thursday, 18 June, 2026, Bar 2 w. @bochkareva.bsky.social @fresejoris.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social @aeggers.bsky.social and myself.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 16/06/2026
The White House has moved to ban almost all work authorization for asylum seekers, indefinitely. In my new note with the brilliant Natalia Rigol & Amy Nice, we assess White House claims that work authorization 1) harms US workers and 2) causes frivolous asylum claims. www.hbs.edu/faculty/Page...
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Lukas Röseler @aufdroeseler.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Check for replications of a specific article or your entire Zotero library - it only takes a few seconds with our Zotero Replication Checker. Download it for free at forrt.org/flora-zotero/ @zotero.org @forrt.bsky.social
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
⚽📚 The Ultimate World Cup Research Thread I've set up a little automated thread: every day of the 2026 World Cup (11 Jun–19 Jul) it shares one study on what football does to society: politics, economics, migration, health, crime & more. One paper a day. Kickoff below 👇
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
This is a great study and (one of?) the first of its kind! A note of caution from a human contributor though: given the slow academic publishing process, the findings should primarily be interpreted as a snapshot of AI capabilities (and the capabilities of researchers using AI) in 2024. (1/4)
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
This is a great study and (one of?) the first of its kind! A note of caution from a human contributor though: given the slow academic publishing process, the findings should primarily be interpreted as a snapshot of AI capabilities (and the capabilities of researchers using AI) in 2024. (1/4)
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Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
🚨NEW PUBLICATION🚨 in Science Advances. We meta-reanalyze 100 conjoint experiments to assess which immigrants citizens prefer around the world. Our evidence reinforces existing findings, identifies novel insights, and provides a basis for future research 1/n www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Which immigrants do citizens prefer? A meta-reanalysis of 100 conjoint experiments
Meta-reanalysis of 100 conjoint experiments reveals patterns of similarity and variation in public immigration preferences worldwide.
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Max Bradley @maxbradley.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
We have a new paper out in PNAS. Susanna’s thread outlines our findings. The big picture takeaway is that well-designed climate education (active, personally relevant, science-based) can complement fiscal and regulatory instruments by building public support for ambitious policy!
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Brandon Stewart @bstewart.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
1/ New @Nature! We study how powerful institutions shape the information environment for LLMs. Commercial LLM training is opaque, so we trace a path from state-coordinated media -> training data -> model responses.
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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵
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Sandra González-Bailón @sgonzalezbailon.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
It takes a village to produce research with impact. This is the idea that motivated us to write this paper, published today.  Kudos to the team: @lluisdanus.bsky.social @william-dinneen.bsky.social @carotorreblanca.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social @asc.upenn.edu www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.eurosky.social · 21/04/2026
Interesting paper on minimum detectable effects and underpoweredness www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Null by Design: Statistical Dilution in Immigration-Crime Research | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Null by Design: Statistical Dilution in Immigration-Crime Research - Volume 56
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
🚨🚨Welcome and very significant news on #EU-UK relationship and #brexit reversal: yesterday, the European Union and the United Kingdom have enabled the UK's association to #Erasmus+ in 2027. 🧵 ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu
European Union and United Kingdom take decisive step towards Erasmus+ association in 2027
Today, the European Union and the United Kingdom have enabled the UK\'s association to Erasmus+ in 2027.
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Moritz Marbach @moritz-marbach.com · 15/04/2026
🚨New Paper in PNAS: "Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Ungated preprint osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/px9ew_v3 w/ J Hainmueller, D Hangartner, @niklas-harder.bsky.social & E Vallizadeh #econtwitter #econsky
pnas.org
Refugee labor market integration at scale: Evidence from Germany’s fast-track employment program | PNAS
Governments face persistent challenges in integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. ...
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Jen Pan @jenpans.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
New study out in Nature Human Behaviour: 37 million US users were exposed to deceptive networks on Facebook & 3 million on Instagram during the 2020 elections—roughly 15% and 2% of active users. 🧵
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
📄Published Today in Nature: 500 researchers reproduced 100 studies across the social & behavioral sciences to assess their analytical robustness (led by @balazsaczel.bsky.social & @szaszibarnabas.bsky.social). Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41... Preprint: osf.io/preprints/me... TLDR: 1/11
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Johannes Breuer @johannesbreuer.com · 01/04/2026
Really excited to see this published! I contributed a small part by doing one of the "robustness replications" as my econ friends call it. Stellar coordination effort by @balazsaczel.bsky.social, @szaszibarnabas.bsky.social et al.!
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
📄Published Today in Nature: 500 researchers reproduced 100 studies across the social & behavioral sciences to assess their analytical robustness (led by @balazsaczel.bsky.social & @szaszibarnabas.bsky.social). Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41... Preprint: osf.io/preprints/me... TLDR: 1/11
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Sholto David @sholtodavid.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Just read the abstract 🫠 via Alexander Magazinov. I don't believe he is on Bluesky.
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Oleg Urminsky @olegurminsky.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
When you collect data online, are the results from humans or AI? In a project led by Booth PhD student Grace Zhang, we estimate the prevalence of AI agents on commonly used survey platforms: osf.io/preprints/ps... 🧵
osf.io
OSF
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Writing simulations in DeclareDesign just went from "I should do that, but it's kind of a lot of work" to extremely easy
Screenshot of claude just writing a design no trouble
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Oscar Stuhler @oms279.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Now out in the American Sociological Review We present the first large-scale assessment of the structure and evolution of temporalities expressed in U.S. climate change news coverage (2000 to 2021). For this, we analyzed more than 23,000 statements about climate change effects and actions. 🧵 1/
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Nicolai Berk @nicolaiberk.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
🚨 TADA Speaker Series Spring 2026 schedule is here! 🚨 We've assembled a fantastic lineup of researchers exploring the future of survey research in the age of LLMs. Mar 18 - May 27, online at 17:00 CEST. Join us! More info & signup: tada.cool
An image of the schedule with speaker images. You can find the full schedule on tada.cool.
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Moritz Marbach @moritz-marbach.com · 27/02/2026
🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇
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