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Len Metson

@lenmetson.com

537 followers 921 following 90 posts

PhD candidate @LSEGovernment 📚 Interested in campaigns, applied data science and field experiments 💻 he/him 🌐 lenmetson.com

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 18/09/2026

Excited to present some new(ish) data tomorrow on the Campaign Strategy, Persuasion and Mobilisation panel (11:30-13:00) at EPOP! #EPOP2026

Screenshot reading:

Socially-mediated campaign contact: An RCT testing the spillover of SMS messages in the 2025 English local elections

Abstract

The spillover of campaign contact within households is well established, but communication is necessary for effects to spillover to neighbours. Previous work treats spillover as a by-product rather than the primary purpose of contact. However, campaigns are increasingly employing ‘relational’ strategies where they ask supporters mediate contact by communicating with their personal networks. Additionally, existing causally-identified research has modelled spillover in single constituencies, limiting exploration of moderating contextual factors. One underexplored factor that could moderate neighbourhood communication - and thus spillover - is rurality. This paper presents national field experiment conducted with a British political party during the May 2025 local elections. Party members across all areas with elections (N=27,330) were randomly assigned at the neighbourhood level to receive SMS messages asking them to remind their housemates and neighbours to vote. By measuring effects on supporters and their social ties across urban and rural areas, this paper tests the effectiveness of mobilising supporters’ social influence and contributes to the literature on how networks and context moderate political behaviour.

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 12/03/2026

Oh no, someone left the testing constituency in!

Screenshot of the Wikipedia page for Southampton Test

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 18/12/2025

Live scenes from the England Cricket Board meeting on Monday

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 03/12/2025

I think this point is nicely stated by this quote in Kinder's critique of the framing literature onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Screenshot of text reading: "Nevertheless, experimental results can always be questioned on their generalizability, and framing effects are no exception. The major worry in this respect is that
framing experiments—like experiments in mass communication generally—typically obliterate the distinction between the supply of information, on the one hand,
and its consumption, on the other. That is, experiments are normally carried out in
such a way that virtually everyone receives the message. The typical experiment
thereby avoids a major obstacle standing in the way of communication effects,
namely, an inattentive audience, lost in the affairs of private life. By ensuring that
frames reach their intended audiences, experiments may exaggerate their power.
A more balanced reading of frame effects requires methodological diversification,
experiments and studies oriented to the world outside."

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 28/10/2025

But even from a purely office-seeking perspective, the issue with the current strategy isn't only that it's losing votes to the left, but it isn't persuading anyone on the right either... osf.io/preprints/so...

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 23/10/2025

Matching designs be like... @antonkoenneke.de

Two men wearing the same shirt, reading the same book

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 29/09/2025

At the Campaign Fringe by @campaign-lab.bsky.social today - If you're in Liverpool today, make sure to drop by to meet some amazing campaigners and chat about what works in campaigning! It's at Camp & Furnace (outside the main conference area) so you do not need a pass to come luma.com/rpu1av03

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 08/09/2025

Political scientists are finding strong evidence it isn't working osf.io/preprints/so...

Paper, with abstract: "Social democratic parties across Europe have increasingly adopted restrictive
immigration rhetoric in response to radical right challengers’ electoral successes.
The consequences of accommodation remain contested. This paper leverages a
pre-registered quasi-experimental design exploiting within-individual variation
from as-good-as-random exposure to UK Labour leader Keir Starmer’s “Island of
Strangers” speech – a major rhetorical turn toward anti-immigration positions. We
find that exposure significantly altered perceptions of Labour, making it appear
more anti-immigration and right-leaning. Crucially, these shifts carried electoral
costs: support for Labour declined within individuals following the speech. While
we detect no corresponding gains for the radical right Reform UK party, there is
also no evidence that Labour’s adoption of nativist rhetoric diminished Reform’s
appeal. Our findings highlight the risks of strategic convergence, showing that
accommodation of exclusionary rhetoric by social democratic parties is electorally
costly for them rather than for their radical right competitors"

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 04/09/2025

On my way to @psaepop.bsky.social to present this paper at the PhD pre-conference today at 1pm and the Campaigns panel on Friday at 4pm - Looking forward to seeing everyone and hearing about lots of exciting research! #EPOP2025

Paper abstract: "Political campaigns are adopting increasingly sophisticated software to automate highly tailored communication with supporters and potential supporters. This allows campaigns to adapt messages using a wider range of individual-level information, such as individuals’ preferences, previous communications, or issue priorities. Despite a growing literature on micro-targeting by campaigns, previous literature mostly focuses on messages tailored to demographic characteristics. Less is known about the effects of tailoring using individual-level information, which is an increasingly viable option for campaigns. Furthermore, existing literature is reliant upon survey experiments, meaning there is limited understanding of the behavioural effects of targeted political communication in real-world settings. This paper presents the results of a large-scale field experiment (N=11,743) conducted collaboratively with a British pressure group during a real petition campaign. The campaign organisation’s mailing list was randomly assigned to a pure control group or to one of three emails: (1) untailored; (2) tailored; and (3) tailored with explicit reference to the tailoring. The findings reveal that whilst both tailored emails mobilise petition signatures, the effect is substantially larger when emails are explicitly tailored. Notably, no significant difference was observed between plain tailored and untailored conditions. These results provide two theoretical contributions. Firstly, despite theoretical fears of backlash to over-tailored communication in previous literature, individuals respond positively when they are explicitly told that content is individually tailored to them. Additionally, in line with organisational theories of activism, the results provide evidence that tailoring at the individual level acts as a signal of a campaign organisation’s responsiveness."

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 26/06/2025

Excited to present this paper on the effects of micro-targeting later today at EPSA! Will be in room -1.A.02 at 15:00:

The Behavioural Effects of Individual-Level Message Tailoring

l.m.metson@lse.ac.uk

Political campaigns are adopting increasingly sophisticated software to automate highly tailored communication with supporters and potential supporters. This allows campaigns to adapt messages using a wider range of individual-level information, such as individuals’ preferences, previous communications, or issue priorities. Despite a growing literature on micro-targeting by campaigns, previous literature mostly focuses on messages tailored to demographic characteristics. Less is known about the effects of tailoring using individual-level information, which is an increasingly viable option for campaigns. Furthermore, existing literature is reliant upon survey experiments, meaning there is limited understanding of the behavioural effects of targeted political communication in real-world settings. This paper presents the results of a large-scale field experiment (N=11,743) conducted collaboratively with a British pressure group during a real petition campaign. The campaign organisation’s mailing list was randomly assigned to a pure control group or to one of three emails: (1) untailored; (2) tailored; and (3) tailored with explicit reference to the tailoring. The findings reveal that whilst both tailored emails mobilise petition signatures, the effect is substantially larger when emails are explicitly tailored. Notably, no significant difference was observed between plain tailored and untailored conditions. These results provide two theoretical contributions. Firstly, despite theoretical fears of backlash to over-tailored communication in previous literature, individuals respond positively when they are explicitly told that content is individually tailored to them. Additionally, in line with organisational theories of activism, the results provide evidence that tailoring at the individual level acts as a signal of a campaign organisation’s responsiveness.

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Len Metson @lenmetson.com · 18/04/2025

GOTV scholars hate him! With this ONE weird trick @antonkoenneke.de

WhatsApp message replying to a message saying "Please remember to vote" with "Thanks for sending this, I will now decide not to vote. I had planned to vote before #defier"

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