iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

I’ve written this week about the unusual glut of US House seats (exacerbated by gerrymandering) which voted for Trump by 10-20 percentage points. economist.com/united-state... Democrats’ blue wave now threatens to sweep over this wall of Republican districts

3184

Reposted by Owen Winter

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

NEW: How does Burnham’s conference speech land with voters when they see it it? In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇

613951

Reposted by Owen Winter

Josh Self @josh.politics.co.uk · 01/10/2026

Yes. The decision to set up a huge APPG, Sarah Olney’s 10-minute rule bill in December 2024, the consistent op-eds, the focus on calling for a “commission”, the parliamentary debates, the pro-reform amendment to the Representation of the People Bill – all helped make Burnham’s commitment possible

1204

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Greens slip into fifth place in our poll tracker, while Reform are only two points off third place. Two parties that dominated discourse in 2025 on their way down

Chart showing polls since 2024. Latest average:

Labour 27
Reform 22
Con 20
Lib Dem 11
Green 10

128729

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This week Democrats lead by 15 points in our Economist/YouGov poll. Huge

1197

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New YouGov MRP is dreadful for Labour in Wales yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

2168

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I wonder how parties/tactical voting orgs are prepping for the first LLM election. I assume it's harder to convince ChatGPT to regurgitate a dodgy bar chart than stuffing it through a voter's door

380

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Dems keep rising in our Senate forecast, now up to 62% chance of winning control. Their gains have been concentrated in red-ish states (OH, KS, TX, IA), offsetting some losses in bluer states (MN, MI, NH)

Horizontal arrow chart showing changes in The Economist’s forecast probability of a Democratic Senate win in each state between July 21st and September 23rd. Democratic chances rose in most states, with especially large increases in Ohio (43% to 75%), Iowa (25% to 43%), Kansas (16% to 39%), Texas (40% to 59%), North Carolina (81% to 96%) and Georgia (76% to 89%). Chances fell in Minnesota (about 93% to 82%), Michigan (80% to 72%), New Hampshire (91% to 86%) and Florida (23% to 20%). North Carolina has the highest Democratic win probability at the end of the period, while several strongly Republican states remain with outside chances of a Dem victory.

1142

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The latest Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's approval -28 and Democrats leading the generic ballot by 14 points among likely voters. If replicated in November it would be the biggest popular vote victory for either party since 1976

220642

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

For the first time since April, our poll tracker shows Flávio Bolsonaro overtaking Lula in the second round of Brazil's presidential election www.economist.com/interactive/...

Line chart of Brazilian second-round presidential polling from June 2025 to September 16th 2026. Lula led Bolsonaro by roughly eight points in mid-2025, but Bolsonaro steadily closed the gap; by early 2026 the two were roughly level. Their support has remained close since then, with both polling at 44% on September 16th.

263

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The latest Democratic win probabilities from our Senate forecast: NC 97% (44th Dem seat - most likely D flip) GA 90% (45) NH 81% (46) MN 81% (47) ME 76% (48) OH 69% (49) MI 69% (50 - most likely R flip) TX 60% (51) AK 54% (52) IA 35% (53) KS 30% (54) FL 20% (55) NE 18% (56) SC 12% (57)

87326

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

It's a bumper day for Democrats' senate polling

1207

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

On forecasts vs experts, here's how our House model compares with Cook's race ratings: Solid D - 100% average Dem win probability Likely D - 100% Lean D - 95% Toss up - 77% Lean R - 54% Likely R - 33% Solid R - 3%

1200

Reposted by Owen Winter

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

It's both bizarrely cynical and bizarrely naive at the same time to do a video in bad and halting Urdu, to a constituency with high levels of English proficiency, very few Urdu speakers, and then to post it on X. Is the plan to replace Labour as the UK's number one producers of 'who is this for?'

717612

Reposted by Owen Winter

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Good thread, great replies from Owen and many others in it.

3423

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

disagreeing with Urdu election material is silly. the more interesting question is why Polanski is campaigning in Urdu in a constituency with hardly any Urdu speakers

Census 2021 data on main language in Holborn and St Pancras. Only 156 people listed Urdu as their main language (compared with 3,471 for Bengali, 2,488 for French, 2,153 for Spanish)

4632575

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Sweden's centre-left parties managed to turn out many more voters in areas with large migrant populations than in 2022

Scatter plot of 5,024 Swedish electoral districts showing a strong positive relationship between the share of eligible voters born abroad and the change in the left bloc’s vote share from 2024 to 2026. In districts with few foreign-born voters, the left bloc’s vote share was roughly unchanged or slightly lower; in districts where around 70–90% of eligible voters were born abroad, it typically rose by around 10–20 percentage points. A fitted trend line rises from about −3 percentage points in the districts with fewest migrants to nearly +20 points in those with the most.

05012

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Sweden's cities swung left while rural areas moved to the right. Change in left bloc vote share: Stockholm +2 Göteborg +3 Malmö +6 Uppsala +3 Linköping +1 Örebro +4 Västerås +2

33213

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Sweden's election is partly a story of turnout, which fell substantially in municipalities that lean towards the Sweden Democrats

Scatter plot showing that turnout fell more in Swedish municipalities where the Sweden Democrats (SD) won a larger share of the vote in the 2026 election. The x-axis shows SD vote share, from around 5% to 40%; the y-axis shows the change in total votes cast between 2024 and 2026, from about +10% to −30%. A downward-sloping trend line indicates that higher SD support was associated with larger turnout declines. Points are sized by votes cast and coloured by the winning party—Moderates (blue), Social Democrats (red) or Sweden Democrats (yellow).

2264

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Great case of "land doesn't vote, people do" in Sweden

815952

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

In a statement on Instagram, Michelle O’Neill hailed her party’s historic agreement with Plaid Cym-roo and its leader Roon abba-worth

130

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

One tidbit from this analysis is that Muslims are the group with by far the biggest swing towards Democrats in our data. From being evenly split on Trump in 2024 to D+40 in 2026

0118

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

In our polling with YouGov, Donald Trump's net approval is underwater on every single issue www.economist.com/interactive/...

Horizontal bar chart titled “Catalogue of errors” showing net approval of Donald Trump’s handling of 15 issues in August 2026. Approval is negative on every issue, ranging from -10 points on crime and -13 on immigration to -30 on foreign policy, -32 on Iran, -34 on the economy, tariffs and government spending, and -41 on inflation, his worst-rated issue. Source: The Economist/YouGov.

07225

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

We have a data-heavy package in this week's @economist.com on the state-of-play ahead of the midterms. Donald Trump has tied himself to inflation-boosting policies that swing voters hate. His historic unpopularity could sink the Republican Party: www.economist.com/interactive/...

Three charts:

(1) How registered voter split between their 2024 vote and 2026 intention. Around 65% of Trump voters are sticking with Republicans, compared with 76% of Harris voters.

(2) The top issues for Americans. Despite the inflation rate falling since 2022, the share saying inflation and prices is their top issue has risen from 20% to 30% in the past four years. The second top issue is jobs and the economy.

(3) Trump's approval rating with different groups over time. His approval among black, Hispanic and white under 30s fell rapidly in 2025. In 2026, his approval fell furthest among whites aged 30-64

24817

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Where do Europe's Muslims live? Some data in The Economist's cover briefing this week "The good news: few Muslims want to subvert European democracy" www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Two-panel map of Europe. Left: Muslim share of the population in 2020, estimated by Pew, with the highest proportions in the western Balkans and smaller but substantial shares across much of western and northern Europe. Right: locations of mosques, using the latest available data up to 2026; mosques are most densely clustered in Britain, France, Germany, the Benelux countries and the western Balkans, with fewer across much of eastern Europe and Scandinavia.

081

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Likud keep dropping in our poll tracker. Now projected 23 seats, down from 28 in March www.economist.com/interactive/...

Line chart of projected seats in Israel’s parliament from 2023 to September 9th 2026, with individual poll estimates shown as dots and smoothed trends as lines. Likud rises from about 19 seats in 2023 to the high 20s in 2025 before falling to 23; in 2026, Yashar climbs rapidly from around 6 seats to 24, while Together falls from roughly 24 to 13. Smaller parties, including Yesh Atid, Blue & White and Bennett 2026, mostly remain below 20 seats, with several close to or below the electoral threshold.

0174

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Kansas's senate race has been steadily narrowing in our congressional forecast. We now give the Democrat Adam Hamilton a 28% chance of winning www.economist.com/interactive/...

0191

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I think Polanski's "vote for me to keep Burnham honest" pitch makes sense in this context

Polling from YouGov showing that Brits prefer Burnham to Polanski as PM by 50 to 8, Green voters are equally split (37-38) and Labour voters prefer Burnham 71-9

130

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

"Nothing matters, Farage is untouchable" they say, as his party peaks at 30% and slips towards third place

2314

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

"A solid Labour victory would wallop the already floundering Greens, quash the idea that the new PM’s appeal is limited to the north and prolong the glow of his first weeks in power." In case Andy B is looking for an optimistic take on Holborn and St Pancras: www.economist.com/britain/2026...

economist.com

Can Andy Burnham extend his winning streak in London?

A by-election will test whether the prime minister is more than just a northern phenomenon

1121

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

in fact the Greens did just as well in wards without many students in May

2025 local election results in Holborn and St Pancras by the share of students. Labour did slightly better in wards with few students but the Greens (combined with Camden People's Alliance) won a similar vote share across the board

281

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Last time Holborn and St Pancras was a Green Party target seat

261

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

I'm surprised how confidently people are predicting that the Greens will win Holborn and St Pancras. They didn't in May, when Labour was at its nadir, and polls suggest Greens are very positive about Burnham, who is still in his honeymoon

8506

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The post-Burnham MRPs show Labour winning Holborn and St Pancras with ~41% of the vote versus the Greens on ~22%. By-election dynamics could of course scramble that

51712

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Holborn and St Pancras's local election results from May (ish): Labour 38% Green 29% Conservative 10% Reform 9% Lib Dem 7%

2105

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

American politics is at its angriest since the civil war. My piece on research by @s-stantcheva.bsky.social and colleagues: www.economist.com/united-state...

Chart showing the share of sentences in congressional floor speeches that are categorised as angry. The share has risen to its highest level in both the House and the Senate in recent years

1195

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

If we were to add Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter's new right-wing party—no relation...) to our Israeli poll tracker today, we would show them on 5 seats. Meanwhile Likud has slumped from around 28 in mid-March to 23 seats in the latest polls

030

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

🇮🇱 For the first time, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar has overtaken Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud in our tracker of Israeli election polls. Overall, we show the current governing coalition of Netanyahu with 53 seats, while opposition parties are on 67 seats www.economist.com/interactive/...

Chart showing Israeli election polls since 2023. Yashar has overtaken Likud for the first time.

Yashar 23.8
Likud 23.7
Together 12.6
Democrats 10.1
Yisrael Beiteinu 9.1
Jewish Power 8.1
United Torah Judaism 7.9
Shas 7.7
Joint List 5.9
Ra'am 5.0
Religious Zionism 4.9

0182

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

My chart in this week's Economist on the Jason Arday scandal and the pipeline from blog to broadsheet to Beeb (anatomy of a shitstorm). In @georgiabanjo.bsky.social's excellent piece: www.economist.com/britain/2026...

Chart showing the number of articles about Jason Arday by date. Nathan Cofnas's blog was published on 21st July and subsequently picked up by The Telegraph, then the Daily Mail, then the Times, before being covered by The Guardian and BBC News shortly before Arday's resignation.

0207

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

looks like we might be past the peak of the Burnham bounce. (that was quick!) still leaves Labour in a much better position than two months ago, of course

281

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Farage has been let off the hook a bit by the hype around binface. 63% against no major parties is not good

2234

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Our Brazilian election poll tracker is live 🇧🇷 www.economist.com/interactive/... We show Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro by 41 to 33 in the first round

Polling trends over time, showing Lula leading Bolsonaro

1214

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

We estimate that Trump's approval is net negative among 2024 voters in forty states, including twenty that he won www.economist.com/interactive/...

Map of state approval estimates from https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

0277

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Donald Trump's approval rating is -29 in this week's Economist/YouGov poll. He has broken his own record from July for the lowest approval rating since the poll started in 2009

1739798