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Ben Walker

@bwalker.uk
4.5K followers 744 following 109 posts

Co-Founder of @britainelects.com | walker@britainelects.com

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Reposted by Ben Walker
Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...
cambridge.org
EPOP collection
EPOP collection
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 14/09/2026
New post: Support for Reform among 2024 non-voters has almost halved... BUT the decline and fall of Brand Farage isn't all it's made out to be. Context please. Read all about it: www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
newstatesman.com
Reform has peaked
Scandals have tarnished the party's image
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Reposted by Ben Walker
Michael Goodier @michaelgoodier.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
interesting election data from my old colleague @bwalker.uk who has managed to gather ward-level results for the Greater Manchester mayoral britainelects.substack.com/p/catch-up-g...
britainelects.substack.com
Catch up: Greater Manchester mayoral results by ward
What’s more remarkable, that Labour swept Gorton and Denton; or that the fourth-placed Tories were still winning wards?
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Anoosh Chakelian @anooshc.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
New @newstatesman1913.bsky.social pod! @bwalker.uk and I analysed the results as they came in the Clacton count, and tell you the story of a bizarre by-election night. Listen here:
shows.acast.com
Farage wins again at Clacton circus | The Politics Show
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 10/08/2026
Radicalisation of the radicals, new post for the NS www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
newstatesman.com
Restore voters can't stomach Nigel Farage
It will take more than a pact to win back the radical right
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bort @crushbort.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
a true crime podcast I would listen to is one where the victims families walk in and sit down in the studio halfway through the episode
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 09/08/2026
A very geeky post but important for the discourse britainelects.substack.com/p/what-the-p...
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 08/08/2026
I have a pretty geeky post out tomorrow morning on what forecasters might be getting wrong about where the parties are. Something good and bad for everyone. BritainElects.com
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 04/08/2026
New post: www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 03/08/2026
Brand Burnham at 35% positive, 24% negative according to Britain Elects poll tracker britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 02/08/2026
Putting Brand Badenoch into perspective, staved the Tories from oblivion, but... www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 01/08/2026
Greater Manchester debrief britainelects.substack.com/p/mancman-ba...
britainelects.substack.com
Mancman Backs Burnham — who knew?
What you won't read elsewhere
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Reposted by Ben Walker
flyingrodent @flyingrodent.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Please show this to various people in politics and media, while filming their reactions www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
newstatesman.com
Are the Greens taking Reform votes?
The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour
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Adam Payne @adampayne26.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
I'm late to it but @bwalker.uk spots something that makes sense, but is still fascinating: the Greens seem to be taking votes from Reform "Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"
newstatesman.com
Are the Greens taking Reform votes?
The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 18/03/2026
Hello geeks. Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
newstatesman.com
The rise of the undecided voter
Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 15/03/2026
Great idea, any and all activists who have recollections from the EUref counts should get involved
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Alexandra Lanes @ajlanes.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Wow! makes me think of Willie Rennie!!! (Cartoon from @neilslorance.com )
Six panels of a cartoon, with various Scottish politicos explaining that you should vote.  In the bottom right a man wearing a blue shirt and black trousers, with grey hair and a big excited wide open mouth has his hands up in the air and is sliding down a children's slide shouting "Willie Rennie!!!"
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 26/02/2026
Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 25/02/2026
Yes, I know some tactical voting sites say otherwise. I refer you to the statement above. The polling is a toss up, maybe favouring the greens a tiny amount. Labour has the more established ground operation. It is too close to call.
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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 25/02/2026
Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning. It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.
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Reposted by Ben Walker
The New Statesman @newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart 📊 @bwalker.uk
newstatesman.com
Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart
New factors have put Zack Polanski's party neck-and-neck with Labour and Reform
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Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
I've previously been critical of some people on here for favouring the YouGov poll over poll-of-polls average - the argument for YouGov being that the average is distorted by Find Out Now. @bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 02/02/2026
New post: likely ward by ward breakdowns of Gorton and Denton if it voted today. It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
newstatesman.com
Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?
Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder
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The New Statesman @newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder. 📊 @bwalker.uk
newstatesman.com
Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?
Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder
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Georgina Sturge @georginasturge.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
How do you forecast an election result more accurately than all the professional pollsters? I asked Ben Walker from @britainelects.com and he told me... it's all about using local election microdata. Fascinating stuff in this week's episode of the Talk Data to Me podcast!
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens. This is particularly striking:
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 16/01/2026
New best party on the economy poll: Con: 21% Ref: 14% Lab: 12% Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods. 8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons 17% of Con voters now prefer Ref YouGov d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 15/01/2026
Newark would vote Conservative in an election held today: Con: 37% (-2) Ref: 23% (+8) Lab: 21% (-12) Britain Predicts
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 15/01/2026
Jenrick held greater sympathy among Reform voters (30%) than Tory (26%) YouGov, Oct 2025
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 15/01/2026
Farage reacts
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 02/01/2026
A run through of... everything electorally for the year ahead www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZPj...
youtube.com
Will Labour survive 2026? | UK Politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
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Reposted by Ben Walker
The New Statesman @newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Labour understands the public on immigration. But if Shabana Mahmood’s gamble fails, Reform will benefit. 📊 @bwalker.uk
newstatesman.com
Labour understands the public on immigration
But if Shabana Mahmood's gamble fails, Reform will benefit
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 20/11/2025
Looking at the Danish local elections net change in seats... Net losers SocDems (centre-left): -156 Venstre (centre-right): -99 Conservatives (right): -61 Net winners Green Left (left): +80 DPP (far-right): +62 Liberal Alliance (right): +116 Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123 Hmm.
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 13/11/2025
Guardian — Police and Crime Commissioner roles to be abolished
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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
"The problem isn’t that we have a deliberately biased BBC, it’s that we have a BBC that has been consciously reduced in its scope and bullied into dumbing down and retreating." www.ft.com/content/676c...
ft.com
Home - Financial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 05/11/2025
A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote. If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 05/11/2025
Most important issue to voting New Yorkers who've given the win to Mamdani: Cost of living: 56% Crime: 22% >> Immigration: 10% via AP Voter Poll / SSRS
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 05/11/2025
Well there we are www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 05/11/2025
Decision Desk HQ calls NYC for Mamdani.
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
If parties want credit for telling hard truths, they need to tell them when they're genuinely hard. If Labour had told the truth about taxes & the costs of Brexit before the election, its majority would be smaller. But it would have more real power & the public would put more faith in its judgment
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 03/11/2025
An election petition is being heard because the last placed candidate of the Runcorn by-election regards it as a statistical impossibility he could have got 50 votes in two separate elections.
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 01/11/2025
£4bn raised from 4 per cent of households
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Anoosh Chakelian @anooshc.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
And listen to our snap analysis after it was released on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Podcast:
podcasts.apple.com
England's most deprived areas revealed
Podcast Episode · The New Statesman: politics and culture · 30/10/2025 · 24m
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 31/10/2025
New deprivation data: Britain is levelling down www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
newstatesman.com
Britain is levelling down
Pockets of deprivation can be found in all corners of the country
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Sam Greene @samagreene.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing. /3
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 15/08/2025
Spot the election campaign britainelects.substack.com/p/who-do-you...
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@bobhudson.bsky.social @bobhudson.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Truly grim analysis of Labour’s electoral prospects in Wales by @bwalker.uk. 2026 looks to be a politically explosive year. open.substack.com/pub/britaine...
open.substack.com
Death spiral? The state of Labour in Wales
Plus: the polling which shows how bad it really is
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AG @anthonycgreen.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
Reform has eaten the Tory recovery britainelects.substack.com/p/reform-has... — @bwalker.uk
britainelects.substack.com
Reform has eaten the Tory recovery
Things aren't so rosy for Britain's Grand Old Party
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Ben Walker @bwalker.uk · 29/05/2025
New post: Will Labour's trumpeted re-Brexit deal bite it in the backside? www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
newstatesman.com
Labour has put the EU back on the agenda. Will the party regret it?
The issue is low on the agenda for almost all British voters. But the reset could still be a political gift for the government.
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