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Robert (Bob) Kubinec

@rmkubinec.bsky.social
11K followers 542 following 6.9K posts

Political scientist @ Texas A&M Bush School of Government. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics The Bayesian Hitman: a.co/d/e4QmtKo Website: www.robertkubinec.com

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 11h
I gotta say, this guy has *chutzpah.* *Writing* an essay to convince us that writing isn't important. He must be playing 8-dimensional chess... if only we knew which move he's on... 🫣
nyt headline
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 12h
static.klipy.com
Scooby-Doo Says Ruh Roh
Alt: Scooby-Doo Says Ruh Roh
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 13h
I love how this new Jev model has brought GLMs back. 👍
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Love everything about this RCT ☀️🔋💚 www.centrefornetzero.org/papers/the-i...
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Debby Randolph @debbynyc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
And while we're at it, *triple* investment in schools. Only the rich in America get a class-A education. The rest of the kids get leftovers. Schools need the latest innovations in learning, and budgets and politicians decide which kids get shortchanged.
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Diana B. Greenwald @dbgreenwald.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Please look at the updated Google Maps satellite imagery of Rafah: maps.app.goo.gl/nkxomMi1d9zL... The total destruction goes all the way northwest to the sea, all the way up to Khan Yunis, where the destruction and killing continues today. It is all of southern Gaza. All of it.
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Daniel Giraldo @danielgiraldopaez.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Yeah there seems to be a hard-to-overturn folk wisdom in the space that more money to schools (and by extension, more teacher pay) is ineffective. But to your point higher teacher pay seems as effective as tutoring per this study www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...
aeaweb.org
Teacher pay and student achievement
Large stipends drew effective educators into Dallas's lowest-performing schools.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Look guys, you want to make teachers more effective, pay them more. No, it's not cheap, but it's absurd that this NYT graphic 👇 shows "teacher pay" in the middle range of effectiveness. How effective would these experts be if we cut their pay in half? 🤔
nyt solutions
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Andy Kaczynski @kfile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A new CNN KFile investigation finds two past accounts from Texas GOP candidate Bo French calling for public executions of government officials, Obama, Adam Schiff, and more. Repeatedly asked Texas GOP, Paxton, Abbott campaigns if they stood by him and got no response. www.cnn.com/2026/09/28/p...
cnn.com
KFile: Texas GOP candidate Bo French has a history of calling for public executions | CNN Politics
Bo French, the Republican nominee for one of Texas’ most powerful statewide offices, is facing bipartisan criticism over a racist post about the crowd at a University of Texas football game.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I don’t even know what to say newrepublic.com/post/213446/...
newrepublic.com
Trump Moves to Cut Off Student Loans for Tons of Degrees
Under a new rule, if your degree doesn’t make enough money, you won’t be able to get a student loan.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Guys send help, I've started running agent-based models 🫣. As in, not Claude Code blah blah blah, the old-fashioned "lots of workers with two open economies" models.
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Dr. Christine M. Slaughter @cmslaughter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Democrats must get more vocal in condemning this prosecution, which is both politically motivated and vindictive on the part of the Trump administration.
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The Bulwark @thebulwark.com · 25/09/2026
The Bulwark community has raised more than $100,000 for the Haitian Support Center in Springfield, Ohio, which is helping families with food, transportation, legal assistance, and other basic needs. If you’re able, please consider donating.
lnk.thebulwark.com
The Bulwark Community Stands With Springfield
Over the past year, we’ve been telling you about what is happening to Springfield’s Haitian community, and about the extraordinary people there who have stepped up to help their friends and neighbors through an incredibly difficult time. Now we’re asking the Bulwark community to step up with them. We’re raising money for the Haitian Support Center, which is on the ground in Springfield helping families with food, transportation, legal assistance, and other basic needs.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
New in APSR: Program cuts from DOGE were larger in more heavily Democratic areas www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Texas Tribune @texastribune.org · 25/09/2026
When a new Texas law prompted scrutiny of universities, professors and students warned it could lead to self-censorship and limit what students learn. The Tribune examined what the law was doing. www.texastribune.org/2026/07/28/u...
texastribune.org
Increased scrutiny of Texas colleges detailed in hearing
Students and professors who say SB 37 led to censorship are holding a news conference before the Texas Senate’s hearing.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Such a weird statement when his entire business depends on finding new ways to do matrix multiplication
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Grace @gracekind.net · 24/09/2026
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS DO NOT THINK, FEEL, WANT OR UNDERSTAND. AVOID LANGUAGE THAT GIVES THEM HUMAN CHARACTERISTICS.
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Darin Self @darinself.com · 24/09/2026
People's idea of how politics works on here is borderline insane. "He'll just cancel the election!!" In what universe is that a potential outcome?
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Here's another take from January 2025 - it wasn't that hard to see that the Trump playbook had a lot of weaknesses before it even got going.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
While I'm preregistering priors, it's nice to look back on where we were before. I wrote this thread👇 in the dark days of January 2025 when many on here were skeptical of my optimistic takes about democracy's survival. I laid out some theories from poli sci to explain why, it seems I was right.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'll preregister my prior that the Dems will win at least 54 Senate seats--on the outside of what's possible in our polarized environment. Plenty of time, of course, for Democrats to do dumb things. But 54 seems to me the most likely outcome given where we are & the trajectory moving forward.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
So "how can 1 in 3 support Trump?" Trump has a powerful position & in a polarized environment, he can always make *some* ppl happy. For example, immigration hardliners are 😍 & also old ppl with 401ks 📈. That's why Trump's approval drop is so... 😬. He's upsetting ppl with reasons to support him.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The @gelliottmorris.com tracker is showing Trump at -28% approval rating. Only 1 in 3 Americans think he is doing a good job. 🫣 These are George Bush at the end of his term numbers.💀 I didn't think we'd get here without a full recession... but here we are. link: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Elliott morris polling average
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Another of these outlier Texas polls. What stands out in this poll is the over-representation of college grads - +10% in this sample over the Texas population. So whether this poll is accurate or not probably comes down to difference in turnout rates btw. college vs. no college. Nail biter... 🫣
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MayhemMel! @melindameyer.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
x.com/HunterBiden/... I hate GOP it's no secret. But sometimes they do the stupidest shit that I love. 🤪😂😂😂😂
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Texas Tribune @texastribune.org · 23/09/2026
Texas DPS failed to send voter registration applications to county election officials. Via @votebeat.org
texastribune.org
DPS voter registration applications weren’t sent to counties
It’s not known how many applications have been unprocessed. Counties will receive a backlogged surge less than two weeks before the Oct. 5 deadline to register for the Nov. 3 election.
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Texas Tribune @texastribune.org · 22/09/2026
New: The Texas Rangers appear to be pursuing criminal charges against Camp Mystic, saying in a search affidavit they believe camp leadership committed manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide during last year’s July 4 floods, according to The New York Times.
texastribune.org
Texas Rangers pursuing Camp Mystic criminal investigation
In an affidavit, the Rangers said they believe camp leaders committed multiple crimes including manslaughter in connection with the deaths of 27 campers and counselors in the July 2025 flood.
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Moira Donegan @moiradonegan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
ProPublica got the literal check Collins was bribed with.
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Mark Kersten @markkersten.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"U.S. officials warned their Dutch counterparts that sanctions would be levied as early as Monday and encouraged the court’s host state to withdraw from the institution." The Netherlands is bracing for potentially devastating US sanctions against the ICC: apnews.com/article/icc-...
apnews.com
The Netherlands is bracing for potentially devastating US sanctions against the ICC
The Netherlands is making preparations for the United States to sanction the International Criminal Court, in the last escalation of the Trump Administration’s attacks on the global tribunal.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 01/04/2026
Culture and Mass Schooling by Melina R. Platas Reveals a widespread gap in education between African Muslims and Christians, and examines the role of culture in its persistence. 📚 cup.org/4bYyiiI
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
There's a new approach to handling genAI manuscripts: make an exam based on the submission, and then have the author answer questions about the submission. The approach has a remarkably good detection rate as visualized in the AUC curve 👇. Open source software too. Link: arxiv.org/pdf/2609.20481
abstractAUC curve
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Ryan J. Reilly “paints a vivid and urgent portrait of… disarray” @ryanjreilly.com · 22/09/2026
A federal grand jury indicted a Tennessee Bluesky user for allegedly threatening ICE agents. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
🎶 curb your enthusiasm 🎶
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Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
In sworn testimony, the Treasury Department says it hasn't seen the money from Venezuela, and doesn't know where it's gone. Time to figure out who's pocketing it. In an overall kleptocracy, this may well be the most brazen act of embezzlement so far. www.ft.com/content/0588...
ft.com
US state department under pressure to disclose Venezuelan oil takings
Trump administration holds back from revealing how much money it has collected and how much it has sent back to Caracas
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
finally
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Simon Weschle @simonweschle.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"a different doctorate"
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Anna Dorman @annalovesvoting.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Do you live in Arizona, California, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina or Texas? Check out @protectdemocracy.org's state voter guide with everything you need to know to vote. protectdemocracy.org/how-you-can-...
protectdemocracy.org
How you can protect democracy - Protect Democracy
These concrete actions are a tangible way to push back against abuses of power and create something better.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
So that's why A&M lost 😡
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
My little old personal website gets scraped a dozen times a day. Sorry if you end up sounding like me in your cover letters and cold emails... 🫢
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Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
A greyscale newspaper cartoon. It shows a plumber and another man looking pensively at a leaking exposed pipe on the wall in what seems like a basement. The plumber is saying something and the man is listening. Both look concerned. The caption reads

"Can't help you with that, the water's gone rogue."
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Andrea Howard @drandreahoward.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New paper from me, out soon in Behavior Research Methods: I'm a lil bit obsessed with good online recruitment and the result is this side-quest paper that made use of data we had collected that recruited people online in three ways (met them on Zoom, validated their email, and Prolific). 🧵>>
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
OLS strikes again!
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Plot twist: what if shariah law encourages universal health care?? 😳
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Joseph Rezek @rezekjoe.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Columbia University bans all electronic devices in required courses in its Core Curriculum. This is the way! I’m rarely proud to be a Columbia graduate, but this is great:
columbiaspectator.com
Columbia prohibits electronic devices in all Literature Humanities, Contemporary Civilization sections
Columbia has prohibited the use of electronic devices in all Literature Humanities and Contemporary Civilization sections starting this fall, 12 syllabi for the courses reviewed by Spectator show and ...
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This type of pivot is a sign of desperation. If it had been a carefully thought out electoral strategy, she would have said this months ago. The boat is drowning and she's clutching at anything that floats.
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Tyler King @tyleraking.com · 17/09/2026
“A senior executive at Microsoft said A.I. systems built on the work of others will be seen as ‘an astonishing theft of unprecedented proportions’ and possibly the greatest robbery of labor in human history, according to court documents unredacted Thursday in an ongoing Manhattan lawsuit.”
orlandosentinel.com
Docs in A.I. copyright suit reveal startling admission by Microsoft exec over ‘astonishing theft’
The admission appeared in a newly unredacted filing in the landmark copyright infringement legal battle playing out between newspapers like the Orlando Sentinel and tech companies Microsoft and OpenAI...
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Gautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 16/09/2026
Nihar Shah did a heroic experiment for TMLR: he spent 20-25 hours over two weeks interviewing authors of seemingly low-quality submissions about their own papers. He confirmed what we all suspected: people submitting these papers have *no idea* what is going on in them.
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The total weirdness of US research ethics...
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Ok this is kind of funny 🤭
Spam email
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Simon Weschle @simonweschle.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We're hiring at UNC! Assistant or Associate level, any area of comparative politics. unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/325... members.apsanet.org/CAREERS/eJob... If you have any questions, get in touch with me!
unc.peopleadmin.com
Open Rank
The tenure-track, open rank position, (Assistant or Associate Professor) includes 40% teaching, 40% research and 20% service to the department/college. The service portion includes, but is not limited...
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