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Will Jennings📉🗳️

@drjennings.bsky.social
1 followers 0 following 845 posts

I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, geography, place, trust. I run on espresso.

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 11h
Am talking about rebuilding the Red Wall in the Burnham era a little later today for a panel organised by the @goodgrowthfdn.bsky.social, so re-upping this thread on what Labour's voters look like in its new seats.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 18h
Excellent panel yesterday. Somehow we are still banging on about towns after all these years. Am talking about whether Labour can rebuild the Red Wall later (spoiler, I might mention towns some more)...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 20h
All the issues with the Labour Force Survey highlight the huge risks of sticking with traditional ‘gold standard’ face-to-face random probability survey methods in an age of low/differential response rates.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 19h
Haven’t been following the story closely but releasing people on bail suggests maybe this wasn’t the security threat reported rather than evidence of a woke criminal justice system?
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Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social · 19h
Saw something in the news, wanted to make the something about himself, inserted himself into the news cycle, and then when they were released is doubling down on that because it keeps him in the news. Classic Donald pattern tbh
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Margot Finn @eicathomefinn.bsky.social · 20h
'The Westminster government’s contribution to funding domestic undergraduates studying in England fell in real terms from £8.9 billion in 2012-13 to just £3.3bn in 2024-25, a drop of more than 60 per cent, an analysis has found.'
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Lee Savage @leesavage.bsky.social · 19h
AI is a complementary technology. It's going to take a few years for employers to fully grasp this as they try to replace workers with LLMs, but they'll get there eventually
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Arthur Snell @snellarthur.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I don’t understand this “very British/very English” framing. According to the Today programme it was “very English” that a member of the public called the police on seeing something dodgy. I’d no idea this is a specifically English thing. Perhaps we can encourage other countries to adopt this idea?
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 20h
All the issues with the Labour Force Survey highlight the huge risks of sticking with traditional ‘gold standard’ face-to-face random probability survey methods in an age of low/differential response rates.
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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 20h
as a satire on so-called late stage capitalism how could one beat investors pouring a trillion into a company offering to wipe out humankind
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Times this morning. Me in December last year. It was pretty damn obvious this would happen to anyone who did the maths. samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This train journey had better end soon otherwise people playing music out loud is going to make me become the joker.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I'm increasingly disillusioned with the (policy) ideas ecosystem in the UK - it seems like underlying (social) scientific research is less and less influential and there's increasing dominance of PR and pseudo-research.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Amen... www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...
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Chris Weatherspoon @cweatherspoon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Gabby Agbonlahor dead right on talkSPORT to bemoan City snaffling Gareth Barry, James Milner and Fabian Delph from Villa. Only Arsenal (four) lost more first-teamers to City in period of the main charges (2009-18). Everton lost three as well All were fighting near the top and had their stars nabbed
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
For connoisseurs of UK labour data, the ONS has now produced a reworking of LFS data using PAYE numbers to better adjust for the post-pandemic drop in responses. Key chart is here, showing a bigger fall in employment at the start of pandemic, stronger recovery after and more decline recently.
Estimated rate of employment among people aged 16 to 64 years, before and after recalibration of Labour Force Survey (LFS) weights to Pay As You Earn (PAYE) employee totals, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, Great Britain
Source: Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics, Pay As You Earn Real Time Information from HM Revenue and Customs
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William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Politics island is outnumbered by the hostile mainland that oppose our way of life. A nuclear deterrent is necessary.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Due out January...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Three in five people will not vote based on free speech at the next election. 🤦‍♂️
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
There have been some interesting *small* changes... people seem more proud of their local area and slightly less likely to say it has been left behind by government.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Over the summer, I re-ran a few of the questions that we ran previously in 2022, '24 and '25 about how people perceive their local area (polling by @yougov.co.uk).
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Cheese will be a big concern for voters at the next general election, with the government's current approach on the issue perceived by many to be bad for Britain, polling suggests. Three in five people said a political party's position on cheese would affect how they voted at a general election.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Over the summer, I re-ran a few of the questions that we ran previously in 2022, '24 and '25 about how people perceive their local area (polling by @yougov.co.uk).
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good thing that this couldn’t have been predicted almost a year ago <runs bitter victory lap> and the government didn’t just blithely carry on doing the same thing. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
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Dan of the Year @downwithdan.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ah yes the circle of life
• Dispatched
Sep 25 23:03 pm
In Transit
Sep 26 09:52 am
Delayed
Sep 26 10:57 am
Held By Carrier
Sep 26 15:07 pm
Destroyed
Sep 26 15:08 pm
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Am speaking on a couple of panels in Liverpool this week. Good Growth in Towns - Monday, 16:15 @ Museum of Liverpool, for @fairness.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social Rebuilding the Red Wall in the Burnham Era - Tuesday, 17:00 for @goodgrowthfdn.bsky.social and the Red Wall Group
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Back in *June*, before there had been a change in PM and Labour were ~20% in the polls, I gave a talk where I was asked to set out a series of scenarios for the future of UK politics. This one is holding up well, though clearly there is huge domestic and global uncertainty and instability ahead...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is textbook, not in a good way.
theguardian.com
Failure to protect free speech could cost Labour votes at next election, says Liberty
Polling for rights group shows issue is concern for voters and many feel recent policies have had negative effect
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Joel Williams @jaowilliams74.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The reporting of questionnaire based research is so credulous. You could ask these same questions about 20 differemt topics and get the same result. Only a handful will have any real effect.
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The divergence starts in 2016 - I read this in part as "Brexit voting bits of the UK have experienced their revenge* through property price catch up" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... while making the whole country a bit poorer too *Never quite understood revenge for what...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Three in five people will not vote based on free speech at the next election. 🤦‍♂️
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Ann M. Lipton @annmlipton.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Oh. www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/dig...
hollywoodreporter.com
YouTube and Meta Reverse Course, Will Accept ‘Musk’ Trailer Ad
The Google unit says the ad was "temporarily restricted" while Meta calls it "an error." TikTok and X remain silent.
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Adam Keiper @adamkeiper.com · 28/09/2026
NEW: Just how big of a blue wave are we talkin' here? www.thebulwark.com/p/could-a-bl...
thebulwark.com
Could a Wave THIS Big Actually Happen?
Dems who lived through past bloodbaths see something similar happening—in reverse.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Back in *June*, before there had been a change in PM and Labour were ~20% in the polls, I gave a talk where I was asked to set out a series of scenarios for the future of UK politics. This one is holding up well, though clearly there is huge domestic and global uncertainty and instability ahead...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Due out January...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
*Every time* I am somehow surprised by how long it takes to 'finish' a book after finishing writing the thing. Copy-edits, indexing, abstracts, alt-text, cover design, proofs, more proofs, marketing, op-eds, launches, the list goes on!
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Am speaking on a couple of panels in Liverpool this week. Good Growth in Towns - Monday, 16:15 @ Museum of Liverpool, for @fairness.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social Rebuilding the Red Wall in the Burnham Era - Tuesday, 17:00 for @goodgrowthfdn.bsky.social and the Red Wall Group
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
I've extended a bit my analysis from yesterday of the profile of Labour voters *in constituencies won by the party at GE2024* - including clearer titles and also used more easily interpretable odds ratios. The story is the same: Labour's vote in seats gained in 2024 tended towards the liberal-left.
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John Oxley @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk · 27/09/2026
This is also true about many of the things going on with Trump and with Musk. Things you observe by being online just not reported or noticed, and they sound mad.
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
This balaclava-clad mob were reading out a weird & imtimidating message about Fabians, Zionists and others outside Bluecoat before dispersing
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Just ran my first 10km in over twenty years. I will not be taking any further questions at this time.
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Dan O’Sullivan @osullyville.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Today I saw the new 4 hour documentary Musk, directed by Alex Gibney. There were too many times to count that a sold out theater burst out laughing at Elon Musk, something he said or did, even sometimes just how he looked. I believe that is his worst nightmare come to life.
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The whole video is like 0.01% of a VLCC its crazy
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
And, in "It never gets old" territory, this from tenured pundit:
Headline from March 2026: 'The War Is Going Better Than You Think'
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This is going great. (*Average* US price now above $6.50)
Chart of diesel prices, showing them about 50% higher than one year ago.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 26/09/2026
I disagree with much of this by @modernlockey.bsky.social, but I think the points he makes tell us something interesting about the shortcomings of the Starmer project and the problems that Labour faces today.
futureoftheleft.substack.com
What is politics for?
Do we still live in a material world?
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 26/09/2026
I would welcome more diversity in politics, but a focus on material issues rooted in this sort of sentimentality about who counts as working class is a death sentence for Labour. As @jamesdaustin.bsky.social says, you can't hold your own voters in contempt then begrudge them for not voting for you.
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Lloyd Lane @lloydlane.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Chasing the mist again on the South Downs.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The way sources are attributed in this article is an absolute masterclass in Westminster code/speak. "one cabinet minister" "Another minister" "one MP" "one senior figure" "a minister" "an insider" "One influential figure" "One prominent figure" "one senior figure" "A senior source" One minister"
bbc.co.uk
How long can Labour's feel-good factor last?
The party’s spirits have been transformed since Burnham became PM, but what's coming down the tracks, asks Laura Kuenssberg.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Burnham bounce is real - but there's a catch. Brief🧵of what @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data tells us ahead of #Labourconf First - clearly Labour's fortunes in headline voting intention have improved from a year ago (and from when Burnham took over). Labour now have a small lead.
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