Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 8h📚 As the new academic year gets underway, take a look at our Methods Briefs From conjoint analysis and polling to AI agents and LLM-assisted coding, these short guides offer practical introductions to methods and emerging challenges in public opinion research 🧵⬇️ 132
Reposted by Miriam SoraceWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 29/09/2026All the issues with the Labour Force Survey highlight the huge risks of sticking with traditional ‘gold standard’ face-to-face random probability survey methods in an age of low/differential response rates. 0132
Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Brilliant, as ever, from @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social might I add: v likely consequence is that state of the art data-driven campaign operations will become even more crucial, if anything to ensure correct signalling to voters-potentially scary, depending on campaign ethos 171
Reposted by Miriam SoraceMiriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Delighted to be co-chairing the Electoral and Voting Behaviour section @epssnet.bsky.social with the brilliant @carolinaplescia.bsky.social! We welcome papers on the themes below. Have an idea for a Roundtable or Authors Meet Critics session? Contact us! ⏰ 13 Nov. 2026 👉 Call: shorturl.at/CB8Lr 13812
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 15/09/2026"[Trust], mistrust, and distrust [comprise] the political trust family " 📝Our first public explainer is out from @danjdevine.bsky.social and Mollie Ruler, talking about political trust and moving beyond a simplistic view of declining trust Read here: www.poal.co.uk/research/pub... 042
Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Delighted to be co-chairing the Electoral and Voting Behaviour section @epssnet.bsky.social with the brilliant @carolinaplescia.bsky.social! We welcome papers on the themes below. Have an idea for a Roundtable or Authors Meet Critics session? Contact us! ⏰ 13 Nov. 2026 👉 Call: shorturl.at/CB8Lr 13812
Reposted by Miriam SoraceEPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 15/09/2026📢 The Call for Papers for EPSS 2027 is open! After a fantastic first conference in Belfast, we’re heading to Copenhagen 🇩🇰, 24–26 June 2027. ⏰ Deadline: 13 Nov 2026 👉 Call for papers: epssnet.org/2027-copenha... 1/2epssnet.orgCall for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 ConferenceSubmit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact. 18659
Reposted by Miriam SoraceWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14/09/2026For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...cambridge.orgEPOP collectionEPOP collection 11815
Reposted by Miriam SoraceWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 03/09/2026The British Polling Council and the Market Research Society may also take an interest in whether their rules have been broken. 51129
Reposted by Miriam SoraceWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 03/09/2026One of the interesting aspects of all this footage is it reveals that parties/strategists firmly believe that opinion polls can be used for significant political advantage. 30575131
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 03/09/2026"treating the texts holistically, the LLMs achieve “functional equivalence” to [...] human coders." New POAL methods brief out from Mollie Ruler and @kenbenoit.bsky.social They outline a validated workflow for applying LLMs to qualitative coding tasks. Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_l... 042
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 10/08/2026"research using this approach has found that polling errors have remained relatively stable" New POAL methods brief from Mollie Ruler, @drjennings.bsky.social, and Christopher Wlezien 🚨 They recommend Mean Absolute Error (MAE) to measure polling error Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_p... 064
Reposted by Miriam SoraceWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 05/08/2026People will say this is comms, but really it’s a function of policy (there has been a flurry of action) and character/content (Burnham is just better at this stuff than his recent predecessors, including BoJo). 5256
Reposted by Miriam SoraceSimon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 21/07/2026Right, let's have a look at the new UK line-up for EU relations tl;dr complete clear-out of senior politicians and reduced weight in Cabinet 1/ 63919
Reposted by Miriam Soraceorlabarry.bsky.social @orlabarry.bsky.social · 15/07/2026Andy Burnham enters 10 Downing Street on Monday as Britain's newest Prime Minister. What does he stand for and what challenges does he face? Coming up shortly on @theworld.org f/t @miriamsorace.bsky.social @uniofreading.bsky.social Dr Roli Asthana @chathamhouse.org Tune in: theworld.org 042
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 10/07/2026The report from our EPSS 2026 roundtable, Protecting Democracy in the Age of AI, is now available! The discussion covered the latest on how generative and agentic AI impact democratic processes, and the risks and opportunities for representation and policymaking Read here: www.poal.co.uk/events/ 154
Reposted by Miriam SoraceKai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 23/06/2026"before the 2016 vote, it had a serious voice in both Brussels and Washington. It has lost both"nytimes.comnytimes.com 042
Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 20/06/2026Bye bye #EPSS2026 - the GOAT of all conferences ♥️ @epssnet.bsky.social 0323
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 17/06/2026🚨 POAL roundtable at @epssnet.bsky.social (EPSS) 2026: Protecting Democracy in the Age of AI — join us to discuss the democratic risks of AI technologies with a great lineup of @poalab.bsky.social and @aimediademlab.bsky.social experts 121
Reposted by Miriam SoraceDylan Spielman @dylanspielman.bsky.social · 13/06/2026You can see some of our early public work here: convergent-opinion.com/local-electi... convergent-opinion.com/impact Get in touch if you're interested in working with us! info@convergent-opinion.com 021
Reposted by Miriam SoraceDylan Spielman @dylanspielman.bsky.social · 13/06/2026Personal news: After four years at Labour, I’m moving on to set up Convergent Opinion with my brilliant co-founder @fintan-smith.bsky.social! We’re building a new polling company to develop better ways of understanding and shifting public opinion - particularly for progressive organisations. 141
Reposted by Miriam SoraceMiriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 11/06/2026What happens when you ask an AI chatbot for political information? In experiments with ChatGPT, Grok, and DeepSeek, we show that even implicit demographic and ideological cues embedded in AI chats shape the news and frames users receive. Study here: osf.io/preprints/so... @zachdickson.bsky.socialosf.ioOSF 195
Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 11/06/2026What happens when you ask an AI chatbot for political information? In experiments with ChatGPT, Grok, and DeepSeek, we show that even implicit demographic and ideological cues embedded in AI chats shape the news and frames users receive. Study here: osf.io/preprints/so... @zachdickson.bsky.socialosf.ioOSF 195
Reposted by Miriam SoracePolitically In/Sane - The Podcast @politicallyinsane.bsky.social · 02/06/2026Can political messages become too personalized ? New podcast episode w/ @miriamsorace.bsky.social on nano-targeting now available! 📺 Stream here : pod.link/1851725697 @simonhix.bsky.social @poalab.bsky.social 022
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 28/05/2026We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/ 1137
Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 13/05/2026Happy to have contributed my reactions to the State Opening of Parliament for @uk.theconversation.com on the government’s EU bill and the current state of public opinion on UK–EU relations - UK seems locked in a suboptimal equilibrium for the foreseeable future theconversation.com/state-openin...theconversation.comState opening of parliament 2026: experts on plans for cost of living, EU ties, tourist tax and moreThe government has laid out its plans for the next parliamentary session. 020
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026Roundtable on what comes next for the parties Conservatives are aiming most of their attacks at Labour but Reform is the bigger threat to them Meanwhile, Labour needs to outline a clearer ideological sense of what it is for rather than triangulating between Reform and Green 052
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026Roundtable on campaigning an tactical voting Strong local campaigns matter at the margins but can't stop major shift in attitudes A lot of tactical voting at the 2024 GE but less evidence of that in the locals. The top two candidates in a huge number of wards is changing — isn't simple for voters 172
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026Roundtable on polls and the media They discussed the increased use of MRP polls in this campaign. There was some scepticism on their utility — that while they may indicate where party support is weak and strong, in an era of fragmentation they are prone to a lot of error. 142
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026John Curtice walked through his interpretation of the results. They confirmed fragmentation with the combined Lab+Con vote falling a lot in England, Scotland, and Wales. They also showed Brexit still matters with Reform increasing much more in strongly Leave areas. 131
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026For the rest of England, @hannahbunting.bsky.social showed that while Reform gained more seats from Labour than the Tories, they gained more from the Tories as a proportion of the seats they were defending Reform won in lower turnout areas but also areas with highest increase in turnout 141
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026In London, Tony Travers highlighted that London's boroughs are more fragmented than ever before in terms of party control Simultaneously, London is the last region or nation in the UK that resembles traditional British politics — Lab+Con+LD still won more than three quarters of the seats 172
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026On Wales, @jaclarner.bsky.social showed how national identity was changing in Wales, with more people identifying as only Welsh, and increasing Left-Right polarisation along the lines of Welsh vs British identification Reform also doing better than the Tories among stronger Welsh identifying areas 3118
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026On Scotland, @robjohns75.bsky.social highlighted how independence still drives voting intention in Holyrood elections. Focus from unionist parties on "getting out the SNP" acts as a proxy for the issue because the SNP so much embodies independence. 1124
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026We heard from @robfordmancs.bsky.social about one of the precursors to the 7 May election, the Gorton & Denton by-election G&D is "frankenstein" constituency with a Reform friendly side and a Green friendly side — both those parties repeated their successes in the by-election at the local election 192
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/05/2026We are here at LSE for their 2026 Elections event organised in collaboration with POAL! 🗳️ Throughout the afternoon, top academics on elections and public opinion in the UK will be giving their analysis of what happened on 7 May, what this means for the country, and what happens next. 1106
Reposted by Miriam SoraceRob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 08/05/2026I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle 811227440
Reposted by Miriam SoraceSteve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/05/2026This time next week there's going to be a lot of hot takes and spin knocking around, especially re: Reform. I've written a short primer for @politicshome.bsky.social on how to stay sane and navigate the immediate post-election chaos. Thread here too. 🧵 www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...politicshome.comMisunderstood, over interpreted, unrepresentative: How to read the local election resultsThe internet will be teeming with hot takes as soon as the first declarations come in on Friday morning. To help you navigate a weekend of noise, h... 37851
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 20/04/2026"measuring [LLM] agents’ relative issue saliences using party manifestos as a source of data is a harder problem than measuring their issue positions" New article from @kenbenoit.bsky.social and Michael Laver on the challenges with LLMs measuring issue salience Read here: doi.org/10.1080/0140...doi.orgMeasuring issue salience for political parties using LLMsUnderstanding both party positions on issues and the relative importance, or salience, they attach to these is central to the study of party competition. Recent work shows that large language model... 142
Reposted by Miriam SoraceSara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 20/04/2026📣 The programme for the European Political Science Society (EPSS) conference in Belfast is now out 👇 1399
Reposted by Miriam SoraceFinancial Times @financialtimes.com · 13/04/2026Starmer defends fast-tracking EU rules into UK law ft.trib.al/6rzUKCsft.trib.alStarmer defends fast-tracking EU rules into UK lawPrime minister says mechanism would help cut business costs and bring down prices 3415
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 30/03/2026AJPS article from @kenbenoit.bsky.social, Scott de Marchi, Conor Laver, Michael Laver, and Jinshuai Ma on using LLMs to analyse political texts. 🧵 1/8 Social science research requires reliable extraction of information from texts to identify authors' preferences on various policies and issues. 12713
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 11/03/2026🚨 New POAL brief from @victoraraujo.bsky.social & @miriamsorace.bsky.social out now: how to properly evaluate the causal impact of shocks, debates, and political crises on public opinion. Diagnostics, pitfalls, examples … all in three pages! Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_U... 1186
Reposted by Miriam SoraceChris Curtis MP @chriscurtis94.bsky.social · 07/03/2026Have been a bit frustrated by some of the conversation about Labour's voter coalition. I've written about who the "Hero Voters" actually were, how we won them, and what we need to do to earn their support next time. chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...chriscurtismk.substack.comWho actually were the Hero Voters?Labour won in 2024 because of economically insecure voters, not social conservatism. 5217068
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 03/03/2026New POAL methods brief out from @miriamsorace.bsky.social 🚨 Outdated policy‑insight frameworks = bad strategy, as exemplified by the government's current woes. Here’s how to fix how we track what voters think about policy: www.poal.co.uk/miriam_brief... 132
Reposted by Miriam SoraceBest for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 03/03/2026BREAKING - Rachel Reeves on the need for closer relations with the EU 🇪🇺 "To go further in strengthening our global relationships, breaking down trade barriers and deepening alliances with our European partners for a more secured and connected economy. 717928
Reposted by Miriam SoraceWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 02/03/2026This loss of talent will have long term consequences for our national research base. Government and funders should do something about it. 29829
Reposted by Miriam SoracePublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 27/02/2026"The strategic use of negative campaigning in political fundraising is likely to continue through this next election cycle" Check out @politicallyinsane.bsky.social's write-up on Substack about recent research from POAL members on negative campaigning politicsinsane.substack.com/p/defeat-the...politicsinsane.substack.comDefeat the Enemy : Do Negative Campaigns Outperform Positive Ones?Jade Holman, Producer at Politically In/Sane writes for POAL on emerging research about the affective responses generated by emotionally-charged campaign messaging 052
Reposted by Miriam SoraceOwen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 03/03/2026YouGov has the Greens in second place for the first time 2136590
Reposted by Miriam SoraceRob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 24/02/2026New Swingometer - Gorton and Denton Final Update!! Featuring seat polling, new adventures in abstract leaflet art, and a last word from Liam and Noel: open.substack.com/pub/swingome...open.substack.comGorton & Denton Final Update: All To Play ForAnyone can win it, and each will have a tale to tell if they do 118139