iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1h

I think this would ultimately be good for Farage/Reform, who would presumably be viewed as stronger on ‘no going back’ than the Tories and who would be buoyed by riling against the ‘anti-democratic establishment’. Albeit on an angry, vocal minority.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1h

We (BES colleagues) have just finished a book showing how Brexit crystallised the realignment of the electorate, and how its persistence beyond 2024 depends on whether the parties appeal to the same groups … Seems that’s a ‘yes’ then!

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Sharon Graham said removing the triple lock is morally wrong in the context that the better option is going after billionaires. Frankly, all cuts could be framed as morally wrong given that starting assumption if you prefer billionaire wealth taxes. If we DON'T assume that, what is morally right?!

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

From the speculation so far Burnham is going to go big politically and set some cats amongst pigeons today. Interesting challenge for the lobby who specialise in politics way more than they do policy.

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Miranda Green @greenmirandahere.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Is it really 5 party politics or a load of 2 party politics in every area (and crucially a battle to be 1 of those 2)? Great piece based on new research from @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social of Nuffield College - www.ft.com/content/28ea...

ft.com

Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast

The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Its so important people distinguish between: a) Trump's politics are popular; and b) Trump is in office because of institutional capture and capitulation The right in Britain really needs to understand how unpopular he is, and how particular the institutional story is.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Incredibly clear from @alfie-stirling.bsky.social here on BBC, who we are delighted to be working with @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Here's the seats to votes ratios for 2024! In a paper by @martamiori.bsky.social and me:

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

While its true that the Lib Dems got a whopping seats to vote share in 2024 and could do again on static polling, it is genuinely intriguing that they're not doing better nationally given the Conservatives are chasing Reform voters. Where are the more affluent voters going, and why?

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I feel like Westminster got hooked on the adrenaline of constant instability.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Thanks, all, for the solidarity, but also sorry so many people relate to this. Hmm. It really sucks. This whole sandwich generation thing should be called something less benign-sounding, for sure….

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

I am trying to bank for my mother and sort all her affairs as her Attorney and can you all just give me the pleasure of briefly screaming into the void please.... .... Thank you. Nothing works. Worse. It works negatively. Rant over.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Where I work really is incredibly beautiful. Yes, you have to be a bird to appreciate it right now and to avoid just dodging the crowds. I am looking forward to the wintry early dark nights when the lights are on inside the libraries and low fog envelops the lanes, and it is peaceful...

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I think high-stakes by-elections are actually extremely important for parties' signals of viability nationally. If the Greens put up Polanski and lose, that's going to send a broad signal. When Farage won in Clacton (even though it wasn't a contested by-election in any meaningful way) it matters.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Happy to report that Boston’s bird offerings are unchanged. (Not a gun or a yellow quiff in sight)

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Drizzly, grey view of Boston and it looks incredibly…British…

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

First time back in the US since 2023. Easiest customs experience I’ve ever had, which was nice. Looking forward to seeing everyone at #APSA2026!

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

A great spot by @peterkellner.bsky.social (as always!). Would be good to dig into this with: 2024 ‘Tory’ non-voters 2024 Tories who now have Reform VI 2019 (and 2017) Tories who switched in 2024 (and 2019) Cf 2024 Tories who stayed Because Badenoch can’t just focus on the second of those!

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

While there is a ‘Burnham bounce’, it is very small so far. Depending on pollster, Labour are still around 8 points below their share in 2024, and that’s with Farage and Reform suffering negative coverage and the right vote splitting. Huge tests for the government this autumn.

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

This phenomenon was catchily titled “macro-competence” by @profjanegreen.bsky.social and me in 2012…

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Surely all Burnham needs to do is transfer his season ticket to a deserving fan. Can't you do that? Win-win-win...

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I see the story about an early election is actually referencing two years early, 2027. That’s ages away. Early, yes, but not the ‘snap-election-seizing-on-a-‘small’-honeymoon-and-divided-right’ kind of early. 2027 is when we find out what people really think of his government and governing.

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Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

💡Should AI be regulated? What people want depends on what they experience in the workplace ➡️Grant, @profjanegreen.bsky.social & Evans (@politicsoxford.bsky.social) in @jeppjournal.bsky.social

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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Come to Oxford and join our amazing Nuffield community! Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellows (PPRFs) in Sociology, include sociology, demography, criminology, social and medical statistics, public policy, and social policy. www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/... @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social

nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Sociology (two posts) - Nuffield College Oxford University

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Reform should know that Tim Montgomerie just isn’t the kind of person to be silenced. I think being suspended will strengthen his resolve to hold people to account within Reform. The classic voice as loyalty, over exit…(for Albert Hirschman fans)

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

I doubt 30% of Cambridge Professors are women….

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Stunning evening in West Oxfordshire tonight as the local bell ringing practice accompanied the eclipse, the bats are now out, and it’s a clear night for meteors ❤️.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

In Clacton, it will be different again of course, because its not a competitive by-election by any normal standards, so I suppose Farage will only be turning out his die-hards.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

As Clacton places a spotlight on Reform, beware assuming Reform are winning non-voters en masse. Why? Most of their voters are ex-Tories, but also - most of their voters are older, whereas the highest % of non-voters are in younger age groups, where progressive parties have greater potential...

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

I very much enjoyed meeting the 2026 cohort who had travelled from around the world to listen to my colleagues (and, much more briefly, me!), to be challenged by them and inspired. It feels more timely than ever.

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Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

🚨New report out today! 🗣️ @profjanegreen.bsky.social: “What really matters right now for households, and for politics, are people’s feelings of economic security. “Having peace of mind about finances should something go wrong; being able to plan; feeling confident about the future.”

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

This is work by me, Geoffrey Evans, Zack Grant, Justin Robinson. We show The Economic Insecurity Trap. Published today by @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Thanks to @benzaranko.bsky.social for seeing the importance of household experiences of economic insecurity. NEW REPORT: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...

jrf.org.uk

The economic insecurity trap

Financial insecurity is self-reinforcing. Setbacks mean reduced planning and saving, and increasing unemployment, income loss and housing costs. Financial vulnerability is persistent and widespread an...

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Reminds me of Yellowface, which I read last year (hugely stressful to read!).

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

See @benzaranko.bsky.social: feelings of economic security for households go much deeper than living costs, and, as we show, can create an Economic Insecurity Trap. Absolutely vital focus for politics. Our work here w/ @jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social share.google/310c4MF0BSwN...

share.google

Economics is a confidence game midlifers are losing

Financial insecurity is trapping households in short-term thinking and costing the government votes, new research shows. Savings policy could lift the mood

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Question put to me today: if Farage resigned, would Reform implode? I’m sceptical. Farage is an asset for Reform, and a liability. He costs them and gains them votes. Perhaps more a liability now. So the question is: who would take over? And could they take more votes from Tories, or Restore?

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Actually, Americans are just like you. ~20-30% of them genuinely support fascism, as in ~every 🇪🇺 country. You are just more fortunate to have political institutions & a multiparty system that prevent that 20-30% from fully capturing the center-right party, becoming 51%, & controlling the government.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The ‘Burnham Bounce’ is small but that’s not the point. The point is whether he can turn it into solid, increased, sustained support, not momentary interest, and we won’t know that for 6+ months. You obviously don’t sensibly call early elections on fragile moments, and talk of it now is unserious.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

A different way of doing politics also means a change to the ecosystem that has sustained it the way it was. Very, very interesting if it persists.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Aside from the politics of ‘actually getting stuff done’ under Burnham (I think *hugely* significant to avert loss of faith in the system, not just Labour) there’s a fascinating pivot away from the usual people and way of doing things around Westminster.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Watch for Greens going down to see Reform struggle in polls and council by-elections. This has, for two years, been primarily about the left splitting making Reform’s *relative* position stronger. If the Conservatives go up, that is about Reform’s vote losses due to Farage etc.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

May = ‘competent’ Brexit-supporting Remainer. Undone by a campaign. Johnson = a campaigner. Undone by distrust in a crisis. Lets skip over Truss and Sunak. Starmer = not political, steady as you go, competent manager. Needed vision, nouse. Burnham = has latter. Does he have the next thing??

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

One thought today. When parties switch leaders, they’ve been seen as answers to recent problems. But they get undone by different problems they’re not well suited to. Burnham meets the need for relatability, political skill, a plan. But his biggest challenges will be ones we can’t yet see coming.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

If pubs passed on savings to customers who have spent the last years struggling to afford a meal out, an actual cost of living benefit which isn’t just about supporting the sector or a cheaper pint (also often a core part of a community).

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

I’m excited to share this. David and I get into the substance of leader effects, whether elections were ‘won by leaders’, why we give them too much weight, but how they can matter, and when. I’m indebted to Tiphaine Le Corre @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social who helped me think about this over years.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

It has been my view for some time that Tories had to pivot to the economy. Of course none of this is easy, but their losses have continued on current course. Will be important, now, to see if they respond to Burnham’s agenda setting by doing so. He understands he can set the terms of debate.

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Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

🗣️"We see this in our research with JRF over and over, people are very worried about their finances. It is their primary concern and what's been driving them away from mainstream parties." @profjanegreen.bsky.social on @itvnews.bsky.social earlier today (from 2hrs3mins) www.itv.com/watch/itv-ne...

itv.com

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