iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

this is a good catch, thank you - the headline figure and past vote figures are correct but the age breaks got messed up somehow. Here they are. Will retweet this for clarity! Apols for the confusion.

101

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

One theory here might be that winter fuel allowance - though small - was ripping ‘real money’ out of real people’s pockets right now. Whereas a smaller increase in the future is less tangible and thus less electorally toxic.

161

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Definitely one of most self-confident & coherent speeches from a political leader in recent years. The full range of Burnhamism there - public control, political reform, social care - plus a gamble on triple lock. Something for every bit of the Labour’s electoral coalition

1104

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There is no doubt most voters - across generations- start from a position of supporting triple lock. Far more so than SW1. Probably Burnham's approach (frame it as double lock, give something back, push change into future) is the best possible persuasion play. Still a gamble, i think winnable.

342

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This theme around control - the loss of accountability and agency in the face of spiralling cost - is still easily the most powerful thread of Burnhamism among target voters. Comes up across so many issue areas. Delivery is another thing ofc, but it’s powerful territory.

2155

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

NEW: With the first day of Labour conference upon us, here are a few random interesting things i've noticed in @persuasionuk.bsky.social polling recently. Featuring: the Andy Burnham vibe emporium, the cost of living blame game and north vs south.

232

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 27/09/2026

oh we've got a classic one today

2837140

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

"Soe Noire rampaged through Greenfield’s LGBTQ community like a dose of the clap." The Greenfield lesbian bar saga, by @helenlewis.bsky.social www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

theatlantic.com

How to Destroy a Lesbian Bar

The scourge of COVID led to drive-by whinings disguised as activism.

309614

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

NEW: How did the summer heatwaves and wildfires change attitudes to climate and Net Zero, if at all? A short thread on analysis of tracker polling now summer is winding down. 🧵 (for @persuasionuk.bsky.social with @yougov.co.uk)

37551

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Pretty much the info environment that led to the winter fuel allowance cut in 2024. Show you are serious, show you are tough etc - sensible governments make themselves unpopular with their own voters, and so on. Round and round we go!

091

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

One of the really odd things here is that we know from @steveakehurst.bsky.social work that attacks on corruption, donations and crypto links aee the most effective against Farage. And here they are, in essence, leaning into them - after weeks of similar stories which caused huge damage.

45628

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

milk bottle champion @stepheniscowboy.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

nimbys remained unmatched

36863172

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Abigail Thorn @theabigailthorn.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

My friend Nicholas is making a new short podcast series about the history of 9/11, starting with the story of the architect who designed the towers podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/h...

podcasts.apple.com

Hijacked: a brief pre-history of 9/11 (part 1)

Podcast Episode · Eternal Youth · 7 September · 17min

114716

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

This by Adam Tooze is good. I’ve always found overly materialist explanations of far right voting unsatisfactory and tbh a form of left cope at times. Yes economic insecurity & loss plays a role but the driving force is simply racial resentment. It’s always best to look that squarely in the eye.

18820

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Just passed a broken-down car off Deptford Church Road, the owner clearly distressed as he frantically calls the AA. A helpful stranger in a passing car slows down, winds the window down and shouts, “you can’t park there mate!”. Drives off. Very good country imo 👍🇬🇧

151

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Already seeing people argue these donor stories don’t hurt Reform, they only make them stronger etc. This is Yank brained nonsense! Research pretty consistently shows that among swing voters, Reform’s connections to vested interests are damaging - because it punches a bruise on who they stand for

2225

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Slightly mad thing about this is polling industry rules are very light touch. All pollsters need to do is publish who paid for it on the tables on the back end of a website, which hardly anyone ever checks. Doesn’t even need to be in any media copy. To not even do this is pretty shocking tbh

1336

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Holborn & St Pancras gut take, fwiw: Should be a fairly safe Labour hold, but Polanski adds a big chaos factor. Without the credible threat of Reform, Labour will need to find a way to up the stakes. Greens will need to settle on a few wedge issues. Bit more on each of these 👇🧵

295

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Majestic bit of polling / data vis this from @yougov.co.uk and i fancy tells you quite a bit about the UK’s media ecosystem !

050

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Updated figures on where the Burnham bounce is coming from: Most of it still clawing back Lab 2024 voters from other left parties. But Lab now also taking 11-12% of Green & LD 2024 vote. Small but important slither of Con 2024 vote too. Reform voters (incl Lab/Reform voters) are unmoved.

1116

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Sometimes neglected thing about the Conservative's hard turn against Net Zero is that as an issue it actually splits their voter coalition a fair bit more than Labour's. Con-Reform swing voters are hostile to climate action and clean energy, but Con-Lib Dem type swing voters are pro.

45615

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Martin Headon @martinheadon.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Well. Glad you had your fun, I guess.

Sonia Sodha post on X: A lot of chin-stroking over on BlueSky about why there's so much interest in the Arday story. It's because it beautifully and hilariously exposes the intellectual dishonesty of your worldview guys, of course you don't get it! 🤪

611569258

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Wow this is a bad result for Farage. In the most Reform friendly seat in the country should get more than this - and Binface’s result shows once again that the centre and left will vote for literally anyone to try and stop him.

721365293

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Really don’t get this (increasingly popular) take. Farage’s goal in Clacton was to knock one into the net from 2 yards out, do a lap of honour and have sympathetic media laud him as the metro-lib vanquisher. What was there ever to gain for other parties in gifting him that performance theatre?

2183

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Hove Park today. All totally normal! 🥴

131

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Some interesting context: a summer of extreme weather (or, cultural discussion around it) has spiked the issue salience of climate for voters. Is back as a top 5 issue, ahead of housing, education, crime. But elite polarisation means politicians largely still too scared to talk about it for now.

2197

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Very useful thread here on some of the recent trends

032

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Updated numbers here: Burnham bounce still basically entirely coming from clawing back voters Labour had lost to Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid/SNP. In addition, Burnham now winning 10% of Green 2024 voters - double that from June.

65113

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

A silver lining for Greens in all this: they can now focus resources properly for next general election. There’s a dozen or so Labour-held seats where Greens have a base & Lab can’t plausibly play the “it’s us or Reform” card. Talk of replacing Lab next time was always hubristic, not to say risky

1111

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation).

175

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Was intrigued by this so went to have a look at how Labour voters values/priorities differ by whether they live in more metropolitan or provincial constituencies. The answer is: not much ! Geography matters at the margin, but a Lab voter in Makerfield is not that different to one in Hastings.

34413

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Rachael Henry @rachaelhenry.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

@mcgregor.bsky.social’s been @ippr.org trustee years &I can confidently say he’s one of the wisest, smartest, kindest. He talks human not bullshit. Really impressive experience +perspective at intersection of politics/policy/campaigns/digital. And an incredibly open, generous operator. Wicked hire ❤️

093

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Weird thing is most testing will show you that one of the most vote losing positions Labour could adopt is explicit anti-Net Zero signalling. This is because climate still disproportionately matters to Lab/Green voters while Lab/Reform voters don’t care either way...

4385136

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Couple of stats to highlight this: ⁠- In vote share terms, Clacton is about twice as right wing as UK average. Reform + Con vote was 74% in 2024 vs 38% UK. - In @persuasionuk.bsky.social opinion maps, Clacton is about 11ppts more right-leaning on any given issue: persuasionuk.org/opinion-maps...

persuasionuk.org

UK-EU relationship

Exploring people's attitudes to trade-offs involved in the future UK-EU relationship

062

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Feel like I’m missing a step in the narrative here. Why is winning a by-election in one of the most right wing constituencies in the country a refutation of allegations against your fitness to be Prime Minister?

3264

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Just one normal day of British politics please. Can't we just turn the machine off for a month and come back after everyone has had a nice break?

140

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

What might a ‘cost of living populism’ look like & how would it do electorally for Labour/Burnham? Some new research via @persuasionuk.bsky.social TL;DR such a platform boosts Lab’s vote share by 15ppt (!) to 34% in our MRP experiment. This & anti-Reform squeeze is prob their best hope 🧵

53820

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

I’ll be interested to see if “Burnham doesn’t care about the South” cuts through with Labour voters in the swathes of Blue Wall type seats they won in 2024. On the one hand, it’s plausible: voters are increasingly zero sum and alert to ‘someone else’ less deserving getting help ahead of them.

433

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/06/2026

UK's outgoing PM Keir Starmer tells parliament that climate change is "one of the most significant challenges of our time" and says it is a "shame" that the Conservatives have broken the cross-party consensus "in order to chase Reform votes"

39926

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Nice of this cafe in Sarajevo to pay tribute to our fallen leader this week

262

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

They’re calling it the quote on British politics that ended the need for all other quotes

8266191955

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

What happened in Makerfield? Some new constituency polling between @persuasionuk.bsky.social & Convergent (most accurate pollster in the race!), covering among other things: - Burnham assembling a coalition Lab needs nationally - 'Get Starmer out' + 'public ownership' at the centre of it. 🧵👇

25723

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

Really consistent pattern now: Reform are doing well at local elections but the minute the stakes are higher (Caerphilly, Gorton, Senedd, even Runcorn) people are coming out and uniting behind whoever is best placed to stop them. This was target seat number 29 for them. It’s a terrible result

3416

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

Burnham’s coalition in Makerfield looking a lot like the one Labour needs to win nationally: uniting the progressive vote (note Greens & Lib Dems, who didn’t fight here, whittled down to nothing) then pulling over some soft Tories and Reform voters on top. Proof of concept, in that sense.

2173

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

Well done to all pollsters who polled in Makerfield - incredibly hard to do and all got the winner right. And especially well done to Convergent Opinion - a new pollster led by @fintan-smith.bsky.social and @dylanspielman.bsky.social - who I think came the closest! Survation a close second. 💥

0103

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

Thats a remarkable margin for Burnham - and another by election where Reform have massively underperformed both national and constituency polling

2284

Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Really pleased that @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on the strengths and weaknesses of the Reform brand features in @samfr.bsky.social's substack today.

2183