Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 15hSome interesting takeaways here. Namely 1) the Tories either don’t know that AV isn’t PR or are trying to pretend that it is 2) the penny hasn’t dropped that *they* could be a small (or at least much smaller) party at the next election 391
Reposted by Jack BaileyJames Chalmers @jameschalmers.bsky.social · 18hThis seems a good thing but I’m not sure it’s ideal that the UK’s cordon sanitaire against the far right is a random number generator mediated by an unevenly distributed set of levers poorly labelled “Tactical Vote?” 3153
Reposted by Jack BaileyAlan Renwick @alanrenwick.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Immediate thoughts on Andy Burnham's announcement today of a national commission on electoral reform. Doing this process well will be really important. theconversation.com/if-he-wants-...theconversation.comIf he wants to secure legitimacy for electoral reform, Andy Burnham must stick to these rulesInvolving both the public and all parties in shaping reforms on how they vote will be crucial. 43618
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20hThis Indonesian prison looks nicer than the one bed flat I lived in during the pandemic. 030
Reposted by Jack BaileyStefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Our School of Politics and International Relations at @ucddublin.bsky.social is hiring two permanent (!) Assistant Professors in any field of political science, international relations, political theory, or development. Deadline: 9 November Start date: 30 August 2027 my.corehr.com/pls/coreport... 15145
Reposted by Jack BaileyDavid Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I wrote this piece a year ago making the case for a National Commission on Electoral Reform (as initially by @appgfairelections.bsky.social). Delighted to see Andy Burnham announce plans for one today.blogs.bath.ac.ukWhy a “National Commission” is the way forward for electoral reformElectoral reform is back on the UK’s political agenda as First-Past-the-Post strains under the pressures of multi-party politics. The new APPG for Fair Elections proposes a National Commission to e… 1385
Reposted by Jack BaileyMake Votes Matter @makevotesmatter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026💥BREAKING: Andy Burnham announces a National Commission on Electoral Reform. This is a historic moment. The era of First Past the Post is coming to an end. It's time to transform politics and make all votes count. It's time for Proportional Representation. 24510133
Reposted by Jack BaileyChris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/09/2026Critics of proportional representation: 'Yes, yes, I know that in reality politics under first-pass-the-post has been chaotic for the last decade, but in theory it provides stable two-party government, and that's what matters'.* * Not actually true in theory either. 2275
Reposted by Jack BaileyJack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024 76027
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026Catching up with the Labour Conference speeches and spotted this little zinger in @heidialexander.bsky.social’s speech. It has that nice quality of being new but still feeling like you’ve heard it before. 021
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026Fun politics fact: Until 2019, Australia had a division called "Batman" while the UK still has a ward called "Gotham", both of which are apparently Labour territory 🦇 0123
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024 76027
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 27/09/2026🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 27 September 2026 26% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP 010
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 26/09/2026I disagree with much of this by @modernlockey.bsky.social, but I think the points he makes tell us something interesting about the shortcomings of the Starmer project and the problems that Labour faces today.futureoftheleft.substack.comWhat is politics for?Do we still live in a material world? 26017
Reposted by Jack BaileyMaria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 26/09/2026The piece that contains this… “Strategists like David Shor have developed a robust theory that explains how rising affluence reshaped American electoral politics towards precisely the “post-materialist” future long sketched out by the political scientist, Ronald Inglehart.” 281
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 25/09/2026Morning at Berkeley: 🚗 Move your car. It's Nobel laureates only. 🚙 I *am* a Nobel laureate. 🚗 In what? 🚙 Economics. 🚗 Nice try. Mine’s Peace. So get out of the damned space. 0130
Reposted by Jack BaileyJack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...ft.comIs the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fastThe battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two 183
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...ft.comIs the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fastThe battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two 183
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026Another thought on this: we’re going to end up with PR-like electoral fragmentation, but without any of the predictability. Worst of both worlds. 2428
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026Even though they’re in third place, this would be a colossal change to our party system and a massive boon for Reform. Coalition negotiations would be a nightmare too. 021
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 23/09/2026This is something that I'm interested in but don't have the time to work out. The variation around the Green's vote share is much larger than the Lib Dem's, who they're neck-and-neck with. 293
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/09/2026This would be a nightmare for international organisations that have to deal with Super Intelligence (SI) and the International System of Units (SI). 040
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/09/2026Ever feel like the Universe is taunting you? I put a lofi hiphop playlist on to help me concentrate and a Scooby Doo remix came on. 120
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/09/2026This is undoubtedly true -- the ties that bind social groups to parties have been loosening for decades -- but it's also partly mechanical. Vote shares must add up to 100% by definition, so if you add a new party with a modicum of support, shares for some other party/parties must fall to compensate. 181
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 21/09/2026Not much to say other than I rediscovered this photo again and can't stop laughing about it 070
Reposted by Jack BaileyPaul Eric @pauleric70.bsky.social · 21/07/2026Walter Cronkite: After liberating execution camps… Germans (who cried) they didn’t know…were as as guilty as Nazis…because they applauded when Hitler shut down (media) and said, ‘We don’t need to know. We trust our government...’ It’s our duty to know. 242215888
Reposted by Jack BaileyJoel Williams @jaowilliams74.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Outstanding new voting intention format from local LibDems. 2013320
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20/09/2026Cool example of a paper that shows that treatment effects in conjoint experiments are *conditional*: they depend on what else you show the respondent, so aren't always comparable from experiment to experiment (As this paper also shows!) 1183
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20/09/2026🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 20 September 2026 26% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP 020
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 19/09/2026It’s all fun and games buying grilled squid flavour crisps at the Chinese supermarket until you remember that at some point you actually have to eat them 150
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 19/09/2026To be honest, I think that this is something that would benefit all of the parties. They’re all playing their greatest hits at the moment. Time to shake things up and do some deep thinking. 130
Reposted by Jack BaileySam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Here's a chart from the post.... quite a change in a single generation. 2735991
Reposted by Jack Baileyhenry @runeberg.bsky.social · 18/09/2026which other country/region would each British city fit best in? eg Bristol is West German, Sheffield is East German, Birmingham is American 1284
Reposted by Jack BaileyLeonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 17/09/2026This is fascism and no amount of language policing can change that. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s... 26016
Reposted by Jack BaileySophie E. Hill @sophieehill.bsky.social · 17/09/2026I'm a Meta-Effective Altruist™️ I believe that Effective Altruism needs to be redistributed from where it is least effective (Silicon Valley sex cultists) to where it would be most effective (British pensioners who leave their life savings to the Donkey Sanctuary). 952767
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/09/2026Not just saying this because I went to school with Rob, but the FT is absolutely smashing it at the moment. Feels like the only paper worth reading most of the time. 1102
Reposted by Jack BaileyChris Prosser @caprosser.com · 17/09/2026I’m at @psaepop.bsky.social #EPOP2026 in Liverpool for the next few days, presenting papers on: 1. The bloc structure of British voting behaviour (Friday 14:10-15:40, LT 3) 2. The urban-rural divide in British politics (16:00-17:30, Flex 1) Quick summaries of both below ⬇️ 173
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/09/2026Real politics fans know that this is the ultimate Bob Katter image 0150
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 16/09/2026I know this isn’t the point, but do Americans just get loads of unsolicited texts and phone calls? 310
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 16/09/2026As is now common, Welsh politics is one of the most overlooked – and most interesting – areas of British politics. You can easily imagine it’s party system shifting such that constitutional issues become the major electoral cleavage. 2133
Reposted by Jack BaileyAlejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 15/09/2026🚨 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social with @klaramueller.bsky.social! “How snap election calls shape vote intention uncertainty” We show that when a snap election is called, voters resolve their uncertainty about who to vote for almost *immediately* www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...sciencedirect.com 12913
Reposted by Jack BaileyChris Terry-Enescu @cjterry.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Going from Reform to Plaid is a journey, isn't it 6489
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 14/09/2026Picked up a copy of "Hyperpolitics" on a whim after seeing it promoted all over the place and I can only conclude that Verso have an amazing marketing department because there's not much substance here and the evidence base is weak. 1821243
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 13/09/2026🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 13 September 2026 27% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP 3146
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 12/09/2026The thing about RSI hype is that it requires you to ignore obvious bottlenecks. Sure, we might get a lot of improvement coming from models building new models, but some (maybe most!) will come from scaling up and at some point we'll hit a computational limit. 120
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 12/09/2026The post isn't even internally consistent. If the UK "is taxing itself to death", and if Laffer is right that "taxes can become so punitive they reduce revenues", then why would lowering taxes require you to cut spending? 1620753
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 11/09/2026The Greens have selected their leader @zackpolanski.bsky.social to contest the by-election in Holborn and St. Pancras. What will it take for him to win the seat? Some analysis from me 👇 21711