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Jack Bailey

@jack-bailey.co.uk
4.9K followers 2.3K following 2.7K posts

Political Scientist at the University of Manchester Co-Director of the British Election Study www.jack-bailey.co.uk

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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 15h
Some interesting takeaways here. Namely 1) the Tories either don’t know that AV isn’t PR or are trying to pretend that it is 2) the penny hasn’t dropped that *they* could be a small (or at least much smaller) party at the next election
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James Chalmers @jameschalmers.bsky.social · 18h
This seems a good thing but I’m not sure it’s ideal that the UK’s cordon sanitaire against the far right is a random number generator mediated by an unevenly distributed set of levers poorly labelled “Tactical Vote?”
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Alan Renwick @alanrenwick.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Immediate thoughts on Andy Burnham's announcement today of a national commission on electoral reform. Doing this process well will be really important. theconversation.com/if-he-wants-...
theconversation.com
If he wants to secure legitimacy for electoral reform, Andy Burnham must stick to these rules
Involving both the public and all parties in shaping reforms on how they vote will be crucial.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20h
This Indonesian prison looks nicer than the one bed flat I lived in during the pandemic.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Our School of Politics and International Relations at @ucddublin.bsky.social is hiring two permanent (!) Assistant Professors in any field of political science, international relations, political theory, or development. Deadline: 9 November Start date: 30 August 2027 my.corehr.com/pls/coreport...

Lecturer/Assistant Professor in Politics and International Relations (x2), UCD School of Politics and International Relations, Permanent
Applications are invited for a permanent post of a Lecturer/Assistant Professor in Politics and International Relations (x2) within UCD School of Politics and International Relations.
 
The UCD School of Politics & International Relations (SPIRe) is a globally ranked, research-active school with teaching and research expertise across the fields of political science, international relations, normative political theory, international development, and other areas. It is committed to the highest standards in undergraduate and graduate teaching and research supervision. The school is home to a number of research centres, and further information can be found at: https://www.ucd.ie/spire/about/
 
95 Lecturer/Asst Professor Above The Bar (7943) Salary Scale: €66,055  - €104,600 per annum

Appointment will be made on scale and in accordance with the Department of Finance guidelines.
 
Closing date: 12:00 noon (local Irish time) on 9th November 2026.
 
Applications must be submitted by the closing date and time specified. Any applications which are still in progress at the closing time of 12:00 noon (Local Irish Time) on the specified closing date will be cancelled automatically by the system. UCD are unable to accept late applications.
 
UCD do not require assistance from Recruitment Agencies. Any CV's submitted by Recruitment Agencies will be returned.
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David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I wrote this piece a year ago making the case for a National Commission on Electoral Reform (as initially by @appgfairelections.bsky.social). Delighted to see Andy Burnham announce plans for one today.
blogs.bath.ac.uk
Why a “National Commission” is the way forward for electoral reform
Electoral reform is back on the UK’s political agenda as First-Past-the-Post strains under the pressures of multi-party politics. The new APPG for Fair Elections proposes a National Commission to e…
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Make Votes Matter @makevotesmatter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
💥BREAKING: Andy Burnham announces a National Commission on Electoral Reform. This is a historic moment. The era of First Past the Post is coming to an end. It's time to transform politics and make all votes count. It's time for Proportional Representation.
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/09/2026
Critics of proportional representation: 'Yes, yes, I know that in reality politics under first-pass-the-post has been chaotic for the last decade, but in theory it provides stable two-party government, and that's what matters'.* * Not actually true in theory either.
Screenshot of newspaper article saying: 'Critics of proportional representation have said it would lead to a more chaotic form of government, with unstable coalitions and an inability to pass legislation.'
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026
Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024
Screenshot showing interactive ward level MRP estimates at the 2024 UK general election.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026
Catching up with the Labour Conference speeches and spotted this little zinger in @heidialexander.bsky.social’s speech. It has that nice quality of being new but still feeling like you’ve heard it before.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026
Fun politics fact: Until 2019, Australia had a division called "Batman" while the UK still has a ward called "Gotham", both of which are apparently Labour territory 🦇
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026
Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024
Screenshot showing interactive ward level MRP estimates at the 2024 UK general election.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 27/09/2026
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 27 September 2026 26% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 26/09/2026
I disagree with much of this by @modernlockey.bsky.social, but I think the points he makes tell us something interesting about the shortcomings of the Starmer project and the problems that Labour faces today.
futureoftheleft.substack.com
What is politics for?
Do we still live in a material world?
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Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The piece that contains this… “Strategists like David Shor have developed a robust theory that explains how rising affluence reshaped American electoral politics towards precisely the “post-materialist” future long sketched out by the political scientist, Ronald Inglehart.”
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 25/09/2026
Morning at Berkeley: 🚗 Move your car. It's Nobel laureates only. 🚙 I *am* a Nobel laureate. 🚗 In what? 🚙 Economics. 🚗 Nice try. Mine’s Peace. So get out of the damned space.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026
Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...
ft.com
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026
Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...
ft.com
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026
Another thought on this: we’re going to end up with PR-like electoral fragmentation, but without any of the predictability. Worst of both worlds.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026
Even though they’re in third place, this would be a colossal change to our party system and a massive boon for Reform. Coalition negotiations would be a nightmare too.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 23/09/2026
This is something that I'm interested in but don't have the time to work out. The variation around the Green's vote share is much larger than the Lib Dem's, who they're neck-and-neck with.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/09/2026
This would be a nightmare for international organisations that have to deal with Super Intelligence (SI) and the International System of Units (SI).
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/09/2026
Ever feel like the Universe is taunting you? I put a lofi hiphop playlist on to help me concentrate and a Scooby Doo remix came on.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/09/2026
This is undoubtedly true -- the ties that bind social groups to parties have been loosening for decades -- but it's also partly mechanical. Vote shares must add up to 100% by definition, so if you add a new party with a modicum of support, shares for some other party/parties must fall to compensate.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 21/09/2026
Not much to say other than I rediscovered this photo again and can't stop laughing about it
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Paul Eric @pauleric70.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Walter Cronkite: After liberating execution camps… Germans (who cried) they didn’t know…were as as guilty as Nazis…because they applauded when Hitler shut down (media) and said, ‘We don’t need to know. We trust our government...’ It’s our duty to know.
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Joel Williams @jaowilliams74.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Outstanding new voting intention format from local LibDems.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20/09/2026
Cool example of a paper that shows that treatment effects in conjoint experiments are *conditional*: they depend on what else you show the respondent, so aren't always comparable from experiment to experiment (As this paper also shows!)
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20/09/2026
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 20/09/2026
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 20 September 2026 26% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 19/09/2026
It’s all fun and games buying grilled squid flavour crisps at the Chinese supermarket until you remember that at some point you actually have to eat them
Two packets of Chinese crisps. The left is grilled squid flavour; the right, fried crab.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 19/09/2026
To be honest, I think that this is something that would benefit all of the parties. They’re all playing their greatest hits at the moment. Time to shake things up and do some deep thinking.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Here's a chart from the post.... quite a change in a single generation.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 19/09/2026
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 18/09/2026
lol not this mac
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henry @runeberg.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
which other country/region would each British city fit best in? eg Bristol is West German, Sheffield is East German, Birmingham is American
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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is fascism and no amount of language policing can change that. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...
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Sophie E. Hill @sophieehill.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm a Meta-Effective Altruist™️ I believe that Effective Altruism needs to be redistributed from where it is least effective (Silicon Valley sex cultists) to where it would be most effective (British pensioners who leave their life savings to the Donkey Sanctuary).
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/09/2026
Not just saying this because I went to school with Rob, but the FT is absolutely smashing it at the moment. Feels like the only paper worth reading most of the time.
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 17/09/2026
I’m at @psaepop.bsky.social #EPOP2026 in Liverpool for the next few days, presenting papers on: 1. The bloc structure of British voting behaviour (Friday 14:10-15:40, LT 3) 2. The urban-rural divide in British politics (16:00-17:30, Flex 1) Quick summaries of both below ⬇️
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/09/2026
Real politics fans know that this is the ultimate Bob Katter image
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 16/09/2026
I know this isn’t the point, but do Americans just get loads of unsolicited texts and phone calls?
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 16/09/2026
As is now common, Welsh politics is one of the most overlooked – and most interesting – areas of British politics. You can easily imagine it’s party system shifting such that constitutional issues become the major electoral cleavage.
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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
🚨 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social with @klaramueller.bsky.social! “How snap election calls shape vote intention uncertainty” We show that when a snap election is called, voters resolve their uncertainty about who to vote for almost *immediately* www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Chris Terry-Enescu @cjterry.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Going from Reform to Plaid is a journey, isn't it
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 14/09/2026
Picked up a copy of "Hyperpolitics" on a whim after seeing it promoted all over the place and I can only conclude that Verso have an amazing marketing department because there's not much substance here and the evidence base is weak.
A copy of the book "Hyperpolitics" by Anton Jäger on a pub table next to a pint of lager.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 13/09/2026
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 13 September 2026 27% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 10% 🍃 Green 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 12/09/2026
The thing about RSI hype is that it requires you to ignore obvious bottlenecks. Sure, we might get a lot of improvement coming from models building new models, but some (maybe most!) will come from scaling up and at some point we'll hit a computational limit.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 12/09/2026
The post isn't even internally consistent. If the UK "is taxing itself to death", and if Laffer is right that "taxes can become so punitive they reduce revenues", then why would lowering taxes require you to cut spending?
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 11/09/2026
The Greens have selected their leader @zackpolanski.bsky.social to contest the by-election in Holborn and St. Pancras. What will it take for him to win the seat? Some analysis from me 👇
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