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Victor Araújo

@victoraraujo.bsky.social
911 followers 662 following 48 posts

Political scientist specialising in public opinion, public policy, and political behaviour in Latin America. Lecturer (Assist. Professor) in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading, UK.

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Reposted by Victor Araújo
Dannagal Goldthwaite Young @dannagal.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Do yourself a favor. Read these 7 pages by @lilymasonphd.bsky.social right now. It is the most concise explanation of the current situation in U.S. politics I've seen and it captures why calls to reduce "polarization" can ultimately worsen the problem 🧵 www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/pol...
journalofdemocracy.org
Polarization Is Not the Problem | Journal of Democracy
Americans have never been angrier with one another. But polarization is not the disease—it is the response to a revanchist movement seeking to roll back sixty years of social progress.
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British Voter @britishvoter.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Hi, this is the British Voter Bot. We're really proud of this latest update, which will give insight into the biggest political social survey in Britain - revealing the breadth of perspective and opinion across our country. Let us know what you think!
Introduction poster for British Voter Bot. Headline: Real British voters, one at a time. Every card on this account is one real, anonymous respondent to the British Election Study, Britain's largest survey of voters. Each card says who they are, what they think and how they'd vote, in their own answers to questions written by the BES. The views are the respondent's own, not ours. How to read a card, five rows: 1. A map of Wales with a magenta dot. The dot is where they live: each voter is drawn over their home nation, marked at their constituency. 2. A lilac speech bubble. The bubbles are their views: favourite and least favourite leader, the issues they care about, how they see their nation - each one the respondent's own answer to a BES question, not the opinion of this account, its authors or the BES. 3. A slider with a magenta dot left of centre, a black tick at the centre and a lilac band around it. The scales show where they sit: two BES 0 to 10 scales, economic left to right and social liberal to authoritarian. The tick is the centre of the scale (5); the lilac band is the voters' interquartile range. 4. A magenta block reading 2024 to today. The band is their vote: how they voted in 2024 and who they'd vote for now, coloured by the party they're backing today, grey if they're undecided or wouldn't vote. 5. 24 lilac dots, one magenta. Together, they are Britain in miniature: voters are drawn from the wave's 31,392 real respondents in proportion to BES survey weights, so the feed reflects the British adult population by age, gender, region, past vote and more. One voter, four times a day. BES Wave 31, YouGov, May-June 2026. Closing band, magenta: No one is the average voter. Taken one at a time, voters are messier - and more interesting - than any stereotype. Credits: Jacob Weinbren, @jacobweinbren.bsky.social; Lawrence McKay, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social; Chris Terry-Enescu, @cjterry.bsky.social.
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Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ @poqjournal.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Christian nationalism isn't just a worldview — it's an emerging identity. In POQ, Walker et al. find that various definitions of Christian nationalism can influence respondents' self-categorization. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Unbelievably, there are *two* academic jobs at Cardiff University. One in British politics (seemingly broadly defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... One in political behaviour/opinion 🙌 cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52...
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
Lecturer in Politics - Teaching and Research in Law Building | Internal & External Website
View details and apply for this Lecturer in Politics - Teaching and Research vacancy in Law Building. Lecturer in Politics - Teaching & Research School of Law and Politics The School of Law a...
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
👇🏽
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Reposted by Victor Araújo
Political Studies Association @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
*PSA27 Annual Conference* ⛵️ Join us in #Hull for #PSA27 to discuss 'Seismic Politics: impacts and responses from the global to the local' 📆 22 - 24 March 2027, University of Hull ➡️ Details including key dates and FAQs online buff.ly/PjjSIr6 #PoliticalStudies #Politics #InternationalRelations #PIR
buff.ly
PSA27 Annual Conference - Political Studies Association
Join us in Hull for PSA27 to discuss Seismic Politics – impacts and responses from the global to the local “PSA [conference] was really great. It gave much-needed exposure to interact with…
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Reposted by Victor Araújo
Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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anticristo da silva jr. @jellen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
ótimo uso da regressão descontínua no tempo. a prisão do Bolsonaro ocorreu de forma muito tempestiva p/ funcionar como unexpected event. de todo modo, esse achado reforça uma ideia importante, segundo a qual a lei precisa ser cumprida em regimes democráticos, mesmo q isso contrarie os mais radicais.
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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Reposted by Victor Araújo
Maarja Lühiste @maarja.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Extremely happy - and even more honoured - to be trusted with one of the most exciting journals @ejpgjournal.bsky.social to co-edit with such an amazing team, starting July 1 2026! We'll celebrate already next month at #ecpg2026newcastle 🥳 @nclpolitics.bsky.social @grahn.bsky.social
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Simon Munzert @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
🚨CfA🚨 We're looking for a postdoc joining us in summer in Berlin. 3-year position @hertieschool.bsky.social @hertiedatascience.bsky.social. Pursue your own research agenda in data science for public policy - ML/AI, causal inference, computational methods. Questions? Don't hesitate to reach out!
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Aurelien Mondon @aurelmondon.com · 27/03/2026
🚨Job alert🚨 We are looking for two lecturers/assistant professors in environmental politics (permanent!) www.bath.ac.uk/jobs/Vacancy...
bath.ac.uk
ED13504 Lecturer in Environmental Politics - Jobs at Bath
lecturer
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
I’m pleased to share a call for papers for our upcoming workshop on Elections & Political Parties in Africa and Latin America, hosted by the Centre for Political Behaviour and Policy Analysis at the University of Reading. Abstract deadline: 6 April 2026. Link for submissions 👇🏽
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EPOP @psaepop.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The call for papers for #EPOP2026 in Liverpool (17–19 September) is now open! We welcome submissions across all areas of research on elections, public opinion and parties. Deadline: 26 April Submit your proposals here: www.liverpool.ac.uk/politics/eve... @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
The Royal Liver Building, Liverpool
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
👇🏽
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Reposted by Victor Araújo
Konstantin Bogatyrev @bogatyrev.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
For colleagues in the London area: next week (6-7 March), we're hosting the annual LSE Behavioural Political Economy Workshop at @lsegovernment.bsky.social together with @florianfoos.bsky.social and @thchau.bsky.social. If you'd like to come, please sign up here: forms.cloud.microsoft/e/uxaAx17DHq
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JPLA @jplaeditor.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Has exPresident #Bolsonaro fostered a lasting issue alignment in Brazil that transcends his personal fortunes? To answer, this 🆕study draws on longitudinal public opinion data from the Brazilian Electoral Study and the Face of Democracy survey series.👇👇👇 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Karsten Donnay @karstendonnay.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
🚨Job alert 🚨 I have an opening for a postdoc in my team at @ipz.bsky.social in the area of digital democracy starting Sep 1, 2026. If you are working on the impact of the digital transformation on politics, please apply by 🗓️ Mar 1, 2026. 📤 Please share widely! www.ipz.uzh.ch/de/ueber-uns...
ipz.uzh.ch
Offene Stellen / Open Positions
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Max Schaub @maxschaub.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Why did antisemitism rise in Germany during the Covid pandemic? And why was this increase concentrated among political centrists, rather than on the fringes? doi.org/10.1017/S153... @kanol.bsky.social @wzb.bsky.social @uni-hamburg.de @politikuhh.bsky.social @socfub.bsky.social
doi.org
Cultural Roots of Prejudice: Cultural Scripts and the Reactivation of Antisemitism in Germany | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Cultural Roots of Prejudice: Cultural Scripts and the Reactivation of Antisemitism in Germany
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Christian Breunig @breunig.eurosky.social · 23/01/2026
🚨 Postdoctoral Position at the University of Konstanz 🚨 We’re hiring a post-doc for our @excinequality.bsky.social project on political elites and decision-making. 4-year position | Deadline: Feb. 20 | Start: Sept 2026 Please share widely 🙏 The ad is here stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/f...
stellen.uni-konstanz.de
Postdoctoral Position at the Cluster of Excellence “The Politics of Inequality”
Deadline: 20 February 2026, 12:00 pm CET
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 14/01/2026
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers “We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.” (Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic
Argentina

Adam Scharpf
Christian Gläßel

Abstract: Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.
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theresa gessler @gessler.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
One week left to apply - join us in Hamburg @politikuhh.bsky.social for the next years 👋
Image of the Alster with sunny weather
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Anibal Perez-Linan @aperezli.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Sometimes a divided opposition is not a good sign for dictators. We explain this with @natanski.bsky.social
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Our neighbours at @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social are hiring 3 (!) tenure-track faculty members: – Assistant Professor in Political Economy – Assistant Professor in International Politics – Assistant Professor in Political Science Deadline: 15 Jan 2026 More details: jobs.tcd.ie @tcddublin.bsky.social
Photo of Trinity College Dublin taken by Stefan Müller
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Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ @poqjournal.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective? In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
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Simon Chauchard @simonchauchard.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣 This does NOT happen everyday. THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
my totally unsolicited end-of-the-semester advice to junior scholars is to keep the nice notes that students write to you in a safe place so you can reference them when things get tough in the future.
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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Professionalism: New Evidence from Web Browsing Data,” Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg, @tiagoventura.bsky.social, Tiago Ventura, @jonathannagler.bsky.social, @ericka.bric.digital, & Magdalena Wojcieszak provide evidence on survey professionalism across three samples.
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Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
"Even if the transition succeeds — if Maduro and other compromised regime figureheads depart, the military stands down, and González assumes the presidency — Venezuela is also highly unlikely to become a peaceful democracy overnight."
journalofdemocracy.org
How Venezuela Actually Becomes a Democracy | Journal of Democracy
The South American country may be on the verge of real change. But it isn’t going to descend into civil-war chaos like Libya. It will be difficult, imperfect, and far better than what Venezuelans have…
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Carolina Torreblanca @carotorreblanca.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf... 🧵
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
"[Political science] studies without an explicit identification strategy...constitute nearly 40% of empirical quantitative work."
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects: -"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size" -"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025
A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published. Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response. osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Not a drill - there's a Britain-focused lectureship (FT, permanent) available. www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPQ588/l...
jobs.ac.uk
Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics at UCL
An academic position as a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics is being advertised on jobs.ac.uk. Click now to find more details and explore additional academic job opportunities.
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Philipp Kerler @philipp-kerler.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
I'm delighted to announce that my paper "How terrorism affects support for democracy" doi.org/10.1007/s111... is now published in Public Choice. Thanks to all my dear colleagues and friends who supported this project in whatever way over the years.😍🥳🍀
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
This is a must read book! 👇🏽
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Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Happy to share that my article with Miguel Rueda and Shuning Ge is out for early view at @bjpols.bsky.social. We show that the level of aggregation at which electoral results are published affects election integrity. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Do More Disaggregated Electoral Results Deter Aggregation Fraud? | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Do More Disaggregated Electoral Results Deter Aggregation Fraud? - Volume 55
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
🚨 New LSE job in political science 🚨 We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy Please share! jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></...
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Janina Beiser-McGrath @jbeisermcgrath.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Want to present your paper to a great community of autocracy researchers next April in Oxford? Then submit your abstract to us at the Autocracy and Regime Change SG for the PSA 2026 Conference. The deadline is this Friday, details below.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Depolarization is not "a scalable solution for reducing societal-level conflict.... achieving lasting depolarization will likely require....moving beyond individual-level treatments to address the elite behaviors and structural incentives that fuel partisan conflict" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Political Studies Association @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
*PSA JOB OPPORTUNITY* 📢 Join our team as PSA #Membership, Programmes & #Events Assistant (PT 0.6,Fixed term) to support with new projects and Annual Conference. Open to all including #PhdStudents and #EarlyCareerResearchers 📆 Application deadline Friday 3 October ➡️
buff.ly
Job Opportunity: Membership, Programmes & Events Assistant | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Job Opportunity: PSA Membership, Programmes & Events AssistantThe Political Studies Association (PSA) is seeking an enthusiastic and detail-oriented individual to join our team as Membership,…
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8
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ERA Chair in Multidisciplinary Area Studies Project @era-areas.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
We are hiring! 🌏 For the future Center for Multidisciplinary Area Studies (CenMAS) at @ff.unikarlova.cuni.cz, we are looking for a 👉 Research Group Leader in Comparative Area Studies. Join us in Prague – details here: bit.ly/CenMASleader @millanos.bsky.social @karelkouba.bsky.social
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 05/09/2025
Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
WE ARE HIRING! 2 Lecturers in Quantitative Social Science. Want a friendly interdisciplinary department in one of the world's most vibrant cities? This just might be for you. Apply by: 10 Oct www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
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PS: Political Science & Politics @pspolisci.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Now on FirstView! "…we present a predation index in political science based on a clear operational definition & coding, thereby providing a tool that every scholar can use to protect the integrity of the publishing process & their own work." doi.org/10.1017/S104... #polisky #academisky
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Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Thrilled to share this 16-country conjoint experiment with @catherinedevries.bsky.social & @simonhix.bsky.social. We find strong support for majoritarian reforms and tougher legal enforcement, even when paired with policies people dislike. Policy-inelastic institutional preferences exist! A 🧵...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 26/08/2025
#FirstView from @pspolisci.bsky.social - The Predation Index: A Tool to Discover Predatory Journals - cup.org/4nlv3of - Annika Marlen Sabine Hinze, Daniel Stockemer & @theresareidy.bsky.social‬
Image featuring a crowd of people at a Pride parade, holding a vibrant, multicolored rainbow flag. The left side shows the logo "PS #FirstView" in bold blue text.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
📢 Call for Papers – London Experimental Seminar Series (LESS) in Political Science @lsegovernment.bsky.social. We are launching a new forum for experimental political science research: First seminar: 19/11/2025. Deadline: 31/08/2025. Submit here: forms.gle/ZUJcBbZoDoaY...
forms.gle
London Experimental Seminar Series in Political Science
We are inviting submissions for the London Experimental Seminar Series in Political Science (LESS), a new forum for discussing experimental political science research among researchers at London unive...
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Sabine Carey @sabinecarey.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
If you know of recent PhDs/postdocs with interest in quant. (ideally mixed-method) research on pol violence/repression/armed actors PLEASE direct them to me! Am looking to appoint Humboldt Fellows to work with me for a year. Esp looking for ppl from Global South. No German citizens/German degree.
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