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Marta Miori

@martamiori.bsky.social
1.2K followers 358 following 117 posts

UK Politics Impact Research Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford Voting, public opinion, longitudinal methods, nice graphs

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Reposted by Marta Miori
Miranda Green @greenmirandahere.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Is it really 5 party politics or a load of 2 party politics in every area (and crucially a battle to be 1 of those 2)? Great piece based on new research from @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social of Nuffield College - www.ft.com/content/28ea...
ft.com
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.
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Lotte Hargrave @lottehargrave.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
🚨New paper🚨 Very pleased that “Using Gender to Choose: Voter Decision-Making in Low-Information Elections”, coauthored with Ellie Woodhouse, is now out at @jeppjournal.bsky.social. In it, we ask: when voters know very little about candidates, how do they use gender when deciding who to vote for? 🧵👇
static.klipy.com
Happy
ALT: Happy
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
So happy about this – this paper has a lot of sentimental value, mainly because I learned so much from working with @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social. Thank you so much to the BJPIR advisory board members for their lovely feedback!
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero: drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com
How many Britons think the public shares their view on net zero?
An environmental addendum to YouGov’s ‘Perceived Majority’ report
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
We argue that Burnham's victory shows what can happen when appeals aren't primarily about ideology, but 'valence'; bridging issues where left and right bloc voters both feel disillusioned (the economy). Burnham takes this 'valence' into Westminster but he'll have an uphill challenge to maintain it.
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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Notable how much this year's local results for Con+Lab were favourably skewed by London's elections falling this year Proportional seat change Lab London: -40% Unitaries: -69% Districts: -73% Counties: -73% Metros: -75% Con London: +1% Metros: -49% Districts: -49% Unitaries: -57% Counties: -76%
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics. drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com
If polls played a part, then you might be wrong about Gorton and Denton
What the tactical voting story tells us about attempts to explain the by-election result
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
I know the local elections were seven hundred years ago in Labour-time but I thought I'd share a little app I made that lets you look at the English ward results on a map and compared to various Census demographics. Warning the map takes a while to load. 1/n benwansell.github.io/local-electi...
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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
My post on tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026: blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp... No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026 | LSE British Politics
With the UK Party system fragmenting, tactical voting has become harder. There is little evidence of tactical voting in the local and devolved elections of 2026.
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Lawrence McKay @lawrencemckay.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to. Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/
datawrapper.de
Local elections 2026: aggregate-level correlations | Created with Datawrapper
Pearson correlation coefficients between aggregate-level census data and the 2026 local election vote share and swing for each party, for the electoral ward or County Electoral District.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
The most reasoned and reasonable thing I’ve read so far on the locals. By my Nuffield colleagues @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Nerding out
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
What have we learnt - that’s actually new - from today’s results? Not much! But here’s our summary: www.itv.com/news/2026-05... @martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
itv.com
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home. The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low... 1/2
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Using single wards to show patterns of vote flows (between blocs) seems very risky to me. Turnout is incredibly low in local elections. It was between 20 and 30% in many wards in the last election. 1000-1500 votes cast. Few people changing their vote or staying at home will look like huge changes
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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Ahead of the local elections tomorrow, a reminder of my cut-out-and-keep guide to how best to assess the results as they come in. Of course, from Friday, I'll be sharing updated versions of the charts - and more - to help put the results into perspective.
dylandifford.substack.com
How to assess the 2026 local elections
A cut-out-and-keep guide of benchmarks for the 2026 council elections
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Brilliant video here from Jane, covers so much ground with such clarity. Well worth a watch
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University of Oxford @ox.ac.uk · 06/05/2026
Are we witnessing the end of two-party politics in Britain? @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News. Find out more ⬇️ bit.ly/42ioslS
Alt text: Graphic titled “Expert Commentary” featuring Professor Jane Green standing outdoors in front of greenery, wearing a red blazer and black top. Alongside her image is a quote that reads: “It is possible we are at a tipping point, where voters are rejecting the two traditional parties on a scale never seen before.” Text underneath identifies her as Professor of Political Science and British Politics at DPIR and Nuffield College.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Comparing Remain and Leave voters, we find that Britishness has declined more among Remainers in the aftermath (2016-2020) of the 2016 EU Ref. As British politics is still polarised around Brexit, our paper shows how political events like referendums can also reshape social identities.
Three graphs showing within-individual change in Britishness in Britain between 2016 (pre-referendum) and 2020. The top left graph shows the results from an OLS regression, where someone's Britishness in 2016 is subtracted from their Britishness in 2020. The value indicates the average difference between the two values among Remain voters and Leave voters. The top right graph shows the results from a Latent Growth Curve Model, which represents the average change in Britishness between 2016 and 2020 among Remain and Leave voters. The bottom graph shows the results of a two-way fixed-effects model, indicating the average within-individual change in Britishness among Remainers relative to Leavers between 2016 and 2020. All models show the same thing: Britishness declined far much more during this period among Remainers than it did among Leavers.
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
So proud of all our hard work on this! Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
I explain the GB picture; why national level fragmentation overlooks the two-sided nature of choices, in work w/ @martamiori.bsky.social and why that REALLY matters. John Curtice on Scotland + Wales, @stephenkb.bsky.social sage insights galore, @benlake.bsky.social the view from Plaid Cymru....
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Probably the most talented early-career political scientist out there just became a doctor! If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her. Do it and thank me later 😉
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Here we argue that predictions of local ‘chaos’ as a result of fragmentation may be misleading - given the current incentives of FPTP under bloc politics … We may instead be in the middle of a restructuring towards national fragmentation, local two-partyism.
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PoliticsHome @politicshome.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism, write @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
politicshome.com
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism
There are certainly reasons to argue for electoral reform. But pointing to the current system as a generator of chaos could be a misinterpretation ...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
One of Labour's big problems right there: a whole bunch of MPs who are convinced that the only reason they won in 2024 and might hold on to their seats in 2028/9 is because they persuaded Reform-curious voters to back them. The research doesn't really support their belief. But hey, 'the doorstep'. 🙄
inews.co.uk
'Load of b******s': Labour Red Wall MPs angered by Rayner's migration attack
Sources close to the former deputy prime minister deny she is making a leadership pitch
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 17/03/2026
In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why? My new post explains how to count like a political scientist: using the *effective* number of parties. jack-bailey.co.uk/blog/what-is...
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
I’ve written about this excellent piece before in my own take on Labour’s “midlife crisis“ but this really was the warning sign from almost six months ago that the data was saying something very different from Number 10’s rhetoric.
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Lotte Hargrave @lottehargrave.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics. We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵 theconversation.com/late-decider...
theconversation.com
Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters
High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.
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Chris Butler @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Pleased to see this work with @rozemarijnvandijk.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social & @robfordmancs.bsky.social published: We look at the effects of involving party members in candidate selection at the 2019 UK general election: eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=https%3A...
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs! Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!): youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Very pleased to share that I passed my PhD viva yesterday! Huge thanks to my lovely examiners @robjohns75.bsky.social and @profsob.bsky.social, and amazing supervisors @rosieshorrocks.bsky.social, @nspmartin.bsky.social and Ed Fieldhouse... 1/3
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
@martamiori.bsky.social and I have been writing, since 2024, about why Labour's 'Reform' challenge and emphasis was based on a misunderstanding of Labour's vote. Here for anyone interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
A very insightful and important read!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs! labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi... If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
We think (in work w/@martamiori.bsky.social) viability is the name of the game! How voters make sense of which party in their bloc can defeat a party in the other. The big question: how voters make sense of this in our electoral system, whether there is a return to the major parties because of it.
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Political Quarterly @politicalquarterly.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
The most-read PQ article of 2025 was.... .... Drumroll.... 'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024' Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Has Reform hit a ceiling, or could its support go higher? buff.ly/5IudVQP
buff.ly
Has Reform hit a ceiling, or could its support go higher?
Welcome to the 191st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), which takes a swerve from my previous piece about how Reform’s vote is slipping in the polls and instead looks to the future: are we seeing a…
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Here's the analysis with @martamiori.bsky.social on which this @economist.com @matthewholehouse.bsky.social article is based: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
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Renewal @renewaljournal.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future." @mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
renewal.org.uk
This Labour government lacks a future
You might be forgiven for thinking that the Labour government is focused on the future. Since before his government’s first Budget, the Prime Minister has repeatedly asked the British public to stomac...
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Chris Butler @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
NEW - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of political scandals on perceptions of leaders, focusing on the UK and Scotland. The study explores themes like containment and contrast in institutional reactions to such scandals.
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David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
How can we compare the size and structuring power of different cleavages over time? Check out @jacobgunderson.bsky.social 's great paper and dataset for scholars working on cleavages at the party system level! The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.
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Danny Clink @dannyclink.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
This is a great study and makes the govt's focus on Reform all the more questionable. TLDR: Basically Reform are beating Labour not by taking Labour voters but by Labour losing Labour voters and Reform taking Tory voters and non-voters www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Can Labour Take Reform UK's Voters? Why Labour's Electoral Challenges Are Being Misunderstood - Nuffield College Oxford University
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared
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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
This is important to remember in terms of upcoming by-elections. Even in Reform-facing seats, Labour's losses to progressive parties are now much more electorally costly than losses to Reform. In the May locals, this was additionally compounded by lower turnout among Labour's now don't knows.
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