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Ed Kelly

@edmundkelly.bsky.social
335 followers 545 following 4 posts

Postdoctoral Fellow @lsemethodology.bsky.social. Political behaviour, attitudes, and trust. edmund-kelly.github.io

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Reposted by Ed Kelly
Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Happy weekend! This Saturday brings you the rare joy of a 🙌job🙌 in: surveys! democratic attitudes! experiments! three years!! research only (if you want)!!!! with @rikkidean.bsky.social @sotonpolitics.bsky.social !!!!!! www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DTB393/r...
jobs.ac.uk
Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project at University of Southampton
Apply now for the Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.
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Duarte Amaro @duarteamaro.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New paper in @jeppjournal.bsky.social! With @leandrebenoit.bsky.social, we find that mainstream parties become more Eurosceptic as radical right support rises (whether in past elections or opinion polls), but only when the radical right is in parliament. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Different signals, same message? Evidence of mainstream accommodation of the radical right on European integration using parliamentary speeches
What drives mainstream parties’ reactions to the success of the radical right? Existing research shows that mainstream parties respond by moving closer to the radical right but most studies focus o...
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Joelle Tasker @joelletasker.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Exciting to see my first thesis paper in @polstudies.bsky.social! In this article I explore how economic versus cultural values predict left-right self-placement in the UK over the last 10 years, and how this looks different for those identifying on the left versus right. doi.org/10.1177/0032...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
From July 2026 - When Legislators Do Not Differentiate: A Field Experiment on British MPs’ Responses to Constituent Policy Queries - cup.org/4hormhs - @danbischof.bsky.social, @vchengm.bsky.social, @gidoncohen.bsky.social, Sarah Cohen, @florianfoos.bsky.social, et al #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract of a study on how UK Members of Parliament (MPs) respond to constituent policy queries. The research indicates that MPs' responsiveness varies with the level of agreement with constituents.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
A little something by me on the state of political trust in Britain (spoiler: things aren't looking great), for the latest report by @ukandeu.bsky.social here ➡️
ukandeu.ac.uk
Policy landscape 2026 - UK in a changing Europe
As Parliament returns from recess, there is no shortage of policy challenges confronting Andy Burnham’s new government. To spell out the difficult choices that lie ahead, Resolution Foundation and UK ...
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I am still overwhelmed and processing being awarded this grant. It funds a 5-year project from Jan 2027 on how trust can bolster support for major policy action on climate, redistribution, and crime prevention. You can read more here: danjdevine.github.io/contrust/ bsky.app/profile/erc....
danjdevine.github.io
CONTRUST
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
We need to understand political polarization through a global lens: Evidence from 53 countries suggests that high levels of affective polarization are correlated with democratic backsliding, but high levels of ideological polarization are not. www.nature.com/articles/s41...,
nature.com
Toward an integrated and globally equitable understanding of political polarization - Nature Communications
Nearly half of all polarization research focuses on the United States, yet many American findings are global outliers. A globally equitable understanding requires bridging traditional social science w...
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
How do citizens change democratic legitimacy? 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 🤨 Adele Webb, @maxgroemping.bsky.social & @marlenemauk.bsky.social test claims that the decision making of citizen's can strengthen the public's confidence in democracy as the governance is seen as more trustworthy buff.ly/XFxtLPS
cambridge.org
Does citizen deliberation inside representative institutions enhance legitimacy among non-participating publics? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Does citizen deliberation inside representative institutions enhance legitimacy among non-participating publics?
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Many myths debunked in this paper. Paper finds that: -faculty partisanship has no effect on students -students ideologically sort into majors; majors don’t affect partisanship -faculty partisanship is uncorrelated with how left/rightwing course content is micah-baum.github.io/files/baum-e...
DO FACULTY AFFECT STUDENT PARTISANSHIP?*
Micah Y. Baum*
Joaquín Endara
Annaliese Paulson®
Abstract
We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of major and sort toward ideologically similar instructors. Exploiting plausibly random variation in when instructors teach courses, we find no effect of faculty partisanship on student partisanship. Text analysis shows exposure to liberal topics reflects student demand rather than instructor supply, leaving little room for indoctrination.
JEL Codes: 123, D72, H75
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Reposted by Ed Kelly
Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Listening is a dyadic process associated with better job performance, leadership, quality of relationships, trust, job knowledge, job attitudes, and well-being. Listening yields clarity, novel plans, and strengthens attachment to the conversation partner. www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
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Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
People favour politicians from modest backgrounds and perceive them to be better representatives of citizens' interests, more accessible, and more trustworthy www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Closer to the people: the impact of politicians’ working-class affiliation on their ability to evoke feelings of symbolic representation among the general population and the working class | European P...
Closer to the people: the impact of politicians’ working-class affiliation on their ability to evoke feelings of symbolic representation among the general population and the working class - Volume 18 ...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
This sort of facile populism is really damaging to trust in politics. Most British MPs are highly attuned to the cost of living crisis and challenges faced by their constituents.
theguardian.com
What I learned from my first few weeks as a Green MP? Most politicians have no clue how tough things are out there | Hannah Spencer
With this escalating cost of living crisis, so many are really suffering – yet Labour lacks the imagination, boldness and will to do anything about it, says Green party MP Hannah Spencer
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
🌀 🚨 Terrorist attacks rarely increase trust in political leaders 🧠 Christof Nägel, @nivette.bsky.social & @christian.czymara.com show that, contrary to common assumptions, terrorist attacks don’t generally boost public trust in political leaders.
buff.ly
Terrorist attacks rarely increase trust in political leaders
Research suggests that institutional trust increases in times of political crises. Christof Nägel, Amy Nivette and Christian Czymara test this notion for jihadist terror attacks in Europe. Their…
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Tom van der Meer @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Political Trust Network: Call for papers (Barcelona, October 2026) The young and fast growing academic 'Political Trust Network' organizes yearly workshops, where scholars of trust can meet up, present papers, and exchange ideas. These workshop have been brilliant, socially and professionally!
upf.edu
Political Trust - RECSM Research and Expertise Centre for Survey Methodology - UPF
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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Really happy this work with @fraraffaelli.bsky.social found a home at EJPR. We show that growing up at times of high salience of immigration produces cohorts of voters who are more likely to vote for parties that they agree with specifically on immigration. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization
Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2026
Leonardo Carella and Francesco Raffaelli
This paper considers how issue salience environments affect long-term patterns of political choice via processes of political socialization. Drawing on the well-known ‘impressionable years’ hypothesis, we theorize that voters who grew up in high-immigration salience contexts subsequently exhibit higher levels of voter-party agreement on immigration (issue congruence). We find support for this hypothesis from two studies, which leverage cross-sectional variation within cohorts in exposure to immigration salience in voters’ formative years. The first employs congruence data from a survey of 10 European countries, linked to historical salience data from the Comparative Manifesto Project. The second is a within-country study, measuring salience and congruence from two long-running German public opinion survey series. The analysis suggests that growing up at times when immigration is high on the political agenda can have long-term consequences for the relationship between voters’ preferences on that issue and their political choices, shedding light on the mechanism behind ‘generational realignment’.
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Rachel Bernhard @rivb.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
In the midst of chaos, excited to share a new publication with @aeggers.bsky.social and Marko Klašnja, dx.doi.org/10.1111/lsq..... As usual, I write an embarrassing thread about my wonderful coauthors-- 🧵 (1/)
dx.doi.org
A Rich Woman's World? Wealth and Gendered Paths to Office
We introduce and seek to explain a new and surprising fact about members of the US Congress: since at least the 1980s, Congresswomen have been substantially wealthier than Congressmen serving in the ....
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
For the historical polling nerds out there, an article about our project with @ropercenter.bsky.social that digitised ~800 surveys by Gallup poll in Britain between 1955 and 1991 has been published in JEPOP. The merged dataset contains over three-quarters of a million respondents.
tandfonline.com
Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the Gallup Poll in Britain, 1955–1991
From the 1930s to early 2000s, the British affiliate and later subsidiary of the Gallup Organization conducted around three thousand surveys of public opinion in Great Britain. While the records of...
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Clara Weißenfels @clarawe.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy? Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not. 🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Fascinating paper by @grattonecon.bsky.social, @bartonelee2.bsky.social, and Hasin Yousaf! The paper addresses a fundamental question: Why do some democracies chronically avoid ambitious, long-term reforms even when they have decent institutions? They argue that what matters is not only
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Although not yet available to read (January 2026!), very happy to see our book on political trust online. Co-edited with @mfair.bsky.social and available open access, we think it'll be a useful addition to the field. www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...
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Tiago Ventura @tiagoventura.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality? Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Let me add this forthcoming paper by Besley et al (in the @qjeharvard.bsky.social), which, I think, provides a nice micro-foundation for between-cohort variation in zero-sum attitudes. They define “growth experience” as the average GDP growth an individual has lived through since birth, weighted by
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Ceri Fowler @cerifowler.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Very pleased to say my new article is out @polstudies.bsky.social ! In it I compare single individuals to those with partners with different past vote choices/party identifications and demonstrate that this is associated with an individual's own vote choice. doi.org/10.1177/0032...
doi.org
Partner Effects and Gender Gaps in Vote Choice in the United Kingdom: Brexit and Subsequent Elections - Ceri Fowler, 2025
This article explores differences in voting behaviour between those that were single and those that had a Eurosceptic or Europhile partner at the United Kingdom...
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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)? ➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Imagine asking people two questions -- whether each of these is a good or bad way to run a govt: 1) having a democratic political system 2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections What percent says *both* are good? 44%!
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Francesco Raffaelli @fraraffaelli.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
✨Very happy to see my paper "Attitudinal ambivalence toward multiculturalism" out on @jeppjournal.bsky.social ! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/8 🧵
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices! Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
kuleuven.be
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior
2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 28/05/2025
New preprint w/ @grahn.bsky.social & @joenoonan.se What happens when the world's most powerful democracy rolls back core liberal values? 🇺🇸 In this paper, we show how US liberal retrenchment, especially on women’s rights & LGBTQ+ equality, damages US global standing. 📄 doi.org/10.31219/osf...
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 26/05/2025
This is a very interesting observational paper for those working on gendered dynamics of far-right, descriptive rep & femonationalism Does women's descriptive rep. lower anti-gender discourse among far-right? No, it *increases* it (according to parl speech data 2009-2023) doi.org/10.1177/1465...
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar. We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads. What we find is disturbing: osf.io/preprints/os...
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Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
What an extremely relevant graph for what happened yesterday
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Ed Kelly @edmundkelly.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Does political trust cause political participation? In this paper, James Tilley, Sven Oskarsson and I use twin data to argue that the correlation is largely explained by confounding with family background. Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Revisiting the link between political trust and political participation | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Moving right on immigration: no evidence that it weakens the far right Cutting social and public spending: solid evidence that it strengthens the far right So what does the Labour party - obsessing over the threat by Reform - do? Moves right on immigration and cuts social spending
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
New research alert! Our study investigates the effectiveness of human-only, AI-assisted, and AI-led teams in assessing the reproducibility of quantitative social science research. We've got some surprising findings!
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Ed Kelly @edmundkelly.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Happy to share that my paper (w/ James Tilley) is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social We show that expenses misconduct by British MPs was not associated with political distrust among their constituents. Open access here: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Kenn Rushworth @kennrushworth.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
I'm assisting @robfordmancs.bsky.social in organising this ECR event for UK in a Changing Europe. Get your papers in, come to Manchester, enjoy the rain, have a drink, go home, tell your mates how good it was.
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 04/03/2024
We are hiring a Postdoctoral student for our AI program. 15-month position to start Spring 2024 – 75 000 USD per year. The work can be done remotely or in Ottawa, Canada. Travel funding will also be provided. Applications to be submitted to Abel Brodeur abrodeur@uottawa.ca
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 16/12/2023
What else can you call this but fascism? What would you say if you saw it in another country? www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/p...
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 06/12/2023
An interesting paper on support for long-term policy making (journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....), with evidence that political trust matters for boosting support. Alternative evidence to a recent paper of mine (osf.io/7hazf) that finds a null effect. 🌐
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Ed Kelly @edmundkelly.bsky.social · 05/12/2023
Very pleased to see our work on social values published as part of UK in a Changing Europe's new public opinion report (ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...). Here's a thread from @leonardocarella.bsky.social summarizing our main findings:
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Katharina Lawall @katharinalawall.bsky.social · 01/12/2023
🚨Do echo chambers polarize? Yes! 🚨Very excited that our paper “The Polarizing Effect of Partisan Echo Chambers” w @sarahobolt.bsky.social and James Tilley has been published FirstView at APSR! Link: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... Thread 👇1/n
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Gaia Ghirardi @gaiaghirardi.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
New sociogenomics WP! Does family SES moderate the impact of children’s genetic predisposition for (non)cognitive skills on educational outcomes? 2nd WP of my thesis by a strong interdisciplinary team: Gil-Hernández, @fabriberna.bsky.social, van Bergen @perlinedemange.bsky.social! ✨
publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Interaction of family SES with children’s genetic propensity for cognitive and noncognitive skills...
This study examines the role of genes and environments in predicting educational outcomes. We test the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis, suggesting that enriched environments enable genetic potential to unfold, ...
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 25/11/2023
Interested in climate policy and/or political trust? Especially in Germany? Then I've a paper for you, accepted at Journal of Public Policy. 🌐 ⁉️We ask why people support particular climate policies. The literature on (political) trust shows that trust increases support for costly policy. Nope.
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 23/11/2023
Last time I'll bother people with this, but you've a few hours to submit a paper for this joint sessions on all things trust, democracy, and trustworthiness. The lineup is looking like you'd get great feedback👇🌐
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 20/11/2023
Three days until the deadline (23rd Nov) for anyone interested in putting in a paper for our workshop 👇 polisky
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 15/11/2023
Interested in a PhD, or have students who you think might be? Especially keen to hear from those in political behaviour, public opinion, political psychology, or any plausible variant thereof 👇🌐
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 13/11/2023
Proposals due on the 23rd November 👇
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Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 13/11/2023
🚨Blog post alert! In the latest @thejop.bsky.social blog piece, Satoshi Kasamatsu & Daiki Kishishita show that an endogenous change in political trust lowers and destabilizes the performance of democracy. Learn more ⬇️ jop.blogs.uni-hamburg.de/endogenous-p...
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