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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

@turnbulldugarte.com
5.7K followers 1.3K following 983 posts

[trying to spend less time on social media] #ihadablackdog youtu.be/XiCrniLQGYc?si=q-gQTNXfScm…

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Reposted by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
Alessandro Nai @alessandronai.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
You know those (rare) papers that really make you proud? In new piece out at APR, we show that #AffectivePolarization likely spills onto other types of non-political polarization - notably, PREFERENCES FOR CATS VS. DOGS (aka “affective PAWlarization”) paper: tinyurl.com/jn48bypp data: osf.io/4p2zu
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb
First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Happy weekend! This Saturday brings you the rare joy of a 🙌job🙌 in: surveys! democratic attitudes! experiments! three years!! research only (if you want)!!!! with @rikkidean.bsky.social @sotonpolitics.bsky.social !!!!!! www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DTB393/r...
jobs.ac.uk
Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project at University of Southampton
Apply now for the Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.
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Marius Sältzer @msaeltzer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Our colleague and friend Philipp Köker has left us and i can't begin to order my thoughts. I hope I can express to his family the feeling of loss we can't beginn to understand, but attempt to share. rundblick-niedersachsen.de/politikwisse...
rundblick-niedersachsen.de
Politikwissenschaftler stirbt überraschend mit 40 Jahren
Philipp Köker, habilitierter Politikwissenschaftler und Experte für die Erforschung politischer Institutionen, ist im Alter von 40 Jahren überraschend gestorben. Die Nachricht hat in Kreisen der Unive...
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Interested in a politics PhD? If you also have a penchant for watching passenger ferries up close and/or excellent project supervision, then @sotonpolitics.bsky.social is ideal for you. You can apply for full funding from @scdtp.bsky.social southcoastdtp.ac.uk
southcoastdtp.ac.uk
Welcome to the South Coast Doctoral Training Partnership
An exciting collaboration between the Universities of Southampton, Brighton and Portsmouth, the South Coast DTP aims to deliver the latest developments in training in research methods and skills to pr...
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Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos @ipp-csic.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
📢 ¡El próximo miércoles arrancamos! @bertous.bsky.social inaugura el 30 de septiembre la temporada de otoño de nuestro Seminario permanente. Seis ponentes y seis investigaciones nos esperan hasta diciembre. 👇 Consulta toda la programación
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026
Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...
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Alex Hartland @alexhartland.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📄 New Publication 📄 When AI Talks Politics: How reliable is ChatGPT? Co-authored with Daniela Braun, @giucarny.bsky.social and @rosanavarrete.bsky.social Now available Open Access @electoralstudies.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 🧵
sciencedirect.com
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Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It's been quite the ride, with lots of supporters: I've received a @ukri.org Future Leaders Fellowship to examine how data visualization matters for what people know, think, and want on climate change, migration, and economic development and inequality. For details, see www.visualizer.org.uk #flf
visualizer.org.uk
VISUALIZER
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 23/09/2026
Today is Bisexual visibility day. Remember to take special care of all the Bisexual Kings in your life. They are far more susceptible to penalties on the dating market than Bisexual Queens.... Girls can kiss girls, but boys can't kiss boys. @ejprjournal.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S147...
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026
Bivariate regressions and less than 2K words? Your first year undergrads will thank you. doi.org/10.1332/2515... I'll even throw in an infographic explainer video.
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026
Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...
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Julian Hamann @julianhamann.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Happy to share our new article on academic freedom. @paulita.bsky.social, Christiane Thompson and Gregor Fabian examine how academic rank shapes experiences, expectations and perceptions of restrictions on academic freedom, based on a survey of 9.083 academics in Germany. doi.org/10.1111/1468...
Screenshot showing abstract: This article investigates the relationship between academic career ranks and restrictions on academic freedom. Drawing on a representative survey of 9083 full-time academics at German higher education institutions, we examine how academics across different career ranks assess their freedom in teaching and research. Although precarious employment conditions and professional hierarchies may suggest otherwise, our findings show that doctoral candidates and postdocs on fixed-term contracts do not report experiencing restrictions on their academic freedom significantly more often compared to tenured professors. However, distinguishing between experienced restrictions, on the one hand, and expectations of restrictions as well as broader perceptions of academic freedom on the other, we find that non-tenured academics report more often to expect or perceive their academic freedom to be restricted compared to professors. We explain these rank-based differences with a chilling effect generated by a polemical and polarized discourse on ‘cancel culture.’ Academics on fixed-term contracts are more likely to be receptive to often polemical debates on ‘cancel culture’ and for the concerns that come with it. This suggests that structural employment insecurity plays a key role in shaping how academics assess their academic freedom. Our results challenge simplified accounts of ‘cancel culture’ by showing that discourse and institutional hierarchies intersect to produce differentiated vulnerabilities within academia. Although based in Germany, the findings speak to broader international concerns about restrictions on academic freedom and precarious academic labour.
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 19/09/2026
See you after lunch :)
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Rikki Dean @rikkidean.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 Job alert 🚨 Come and join me and @paul-kindermann.net researching European process preferences. 3-year postdoc @sotonpolitics.bsky.social with travel and training budget. Potentially of interest to those attending #EPOP2026. Details at: jobs.soton.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx... #polisky
jobs.soton.ac.uk
Job Opportunity at the University of Southampton: Research Fellow - Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE) project
We are delighted to welcome applications for the position of Research Fellow within a new ERC-funded research group on Political Process Preferences in Europe (PoPPiE): Rethinking Conceptual, Ontologi...
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 18/09/2026
If you are unsure what #EPOP2026 panel to attend tomorrow, I can suggest dropping in to Flex 1 tomorrow afternoon (14:00-15:30). You can hear me make as many phallic puns as I can while explaining why size matters for gender attitudes.
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 17/09/2026
Do LGBTQ+ individuals take a nativist turn after Islamist violence? Does the general pop. increase support for the LGBTQ+ community? We, with @wurthmann.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social, answer these Qs with a pre-reg. RDiT around the Berlin attack which I'll present at the next QPW on Oct 8th.
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Arndt Leininger @aleininger.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
🧵 Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social, with @tswalve.bsky.social "What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success" Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 15/09/2026
With many of my cool colleagues, I'll be at @psaepop.bsky.social later this week presenting work on two questions 1. Does size matter? 🍆📏 2. Do women sanitise the far-right? You'd be surprised which is the null effects paper 👀 Drop me a DM if not at EPOP but interested - feedback welcome!
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The Comparative Inequality Conference is held by @lseinequalities.bsky.social and @lisdata.bsky.social in London 11-12 Feb 2027. Submit your contribution until 15 September. www.lisdatacenter.org/wp-content/u...
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Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I'll be at @psaepop.bsky.social #epop2026 next week, and still have an offer of a few coffee chats on me for anyone wanting to talk about job markets, publishing, grant applications, or research connections. Or just say hi if we pass each other!
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
New JOP paper shows some gaps between Black Americans' personal beliefs about what constitutes racism and what they believe other Black folks think. Majorities think group members will say instances of colorblind or subtle racism count as racism but do not themselves agree. doi.org/10.1086/743970
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Extremely impressive field experiment by @nmalhotra.bsky.social et al. had few effects on election attitudes among conservatives in TX despite being "exposed to an average of 20 online videos, 18.5 cable TV videos, 23.9 display ads, 3 text messages, and 3 postcards" www.science.org/doi/full/10....
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Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The @magdalenoxford.bsky.social junior research fellowships are now open, including for politics. Due 15 Oct. 3 years of 100% research time to those who submit their PhD between July 2025-Oct 2027. Comes with good ECR pay, relatively generous support funds. www.magd.ox.ac.uk/job-vacancie...
magd.ox.ac.uk
Job Vacancies - Magdalen College
Magdalen College is one of the oldest, largest, and most beautiful colleges in Oxford – it is a wonderful place to work. You can explore and apply for current vacancies on our recruitment website via ...
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 06/09/2026
Within-bloc logic observed in the wild doi.org/10.1086/736698
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 30/08/2026
Just a couple of days away from my desk, and look what the book fairy has left for me! Recommended, if slightly scary reading for anyone interest in #femonationlism (and other things #farright)
Book cover of "Women and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)" by Katherine Williams, part of the Routledge Studies in Fascism and the Far Right series, shown beside the quote: "Fascinating reading for anyone who wants to understand the motivations of female far-right activists."
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 01/09/2026
The Rainbow Vote now has a cover & publication date. www.therainbowvote.com 🗳️🏳️‍🌈 Please consider pre-ordering, or asking your institution’s library to pre-order! Insufferable self-promotion to follow but I am dutifully celebrating every milestone along the way to publication day in February 😎
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⭕⭕⭕ Zoë Greene ⭕⭕⭕ @zdgreene.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The official release date of ParliView EU is coming soon! Follow below for more updates about the project and sign up for early access at parliview.org @transparency-eu.bsky.social @ucdpolitics.bsky.social @strathpolir.bsky.social @strathplacelab.bsky.social
parliview.org
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 01/09/2026
The Rainbow Vote now has a cover & publication date. www.therainbowvote.com 🗳️🏳️‍🌈 Please consider pre-ordering, or asking your institution’s library to pre-order! Insufferable self-promotion to follow but I am dutifully celebrating every milestone along the way to publication day in February 😎
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🚨🚨 New publication: 🚨🚨 Does affective polarization (AP) change citizens’ willingness to support democratic norms or participate? 🧵1/10 Full paper here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Cool Citizens? How Affectively Unpolarized Citizens View and Participate in Democracy - Political Behavior
Does affective polarization change how citizens view and participate in democracy? We posit that the answer to this crucial question depends on how affectively unpolarized citizens view and participat...
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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What happens when you remind Republicans that, if they give Trump more power, Democrats will one day engage in payback? ~GOP support for giving Trump more power goes ⬇️, BUT ~Democrats become more OK with it 🤯 Lesson for understanding democratic backsliding: time matters.⏰
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Lorenzo Piccoli @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
We have updated the Migration Movies Database, which now includes 700+ documentaries, movies, and series globally. The database is designed to serve as a resource for anyone interested in incorporating movies into teaching, learning, and public discourse. migrationpolicycentre.eu/project/migr...
migrationpolicycentre.eu
Migration Movies Database - Migration Policy Centre
This Migration Movies Database brings together screen works that tell stories of migration and human movement from1940 until 2025.
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Magda Breyer @mabreyer.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
How do individuals normatively assess changes to the social order and what does this tell us about electoral realignment? New publication with @dpzollinger.bsky.social and Tabea Palmtag out now in the Journal of European Public Policy 😊 doi.org/10.1080/1350...
The title and abstract of the article in a screenshot
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
There is a postdoc position available at @sotonpolitics.bsky.social working on disability and political parties with @elizabethjevans.bsky.social and @stefaniereher.bsky.social Qualitative focus and Danish/Spanish required. jobs.soton.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...
jobs.soton.ac.uk
Job Opportunity at the University of Southampton: Research Fellow
We are delighted to welcome applications for the position of Research Fellow within a new ESRC-funded research project led by Prof Elizabeth Evans and Dr Stefanie Reher (Strathclyde) on Disability and...
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
A good moment to recommend Angela Saini‘s Superior, which traces back the history of “race science” and shows the institutions that sustain this pseudo-research until today. These pursuits have nothing in common with the principles of academic inquiry www.angelasaini.co.uk/superior
angelasaini.co.uk
Angela Saini | Award-winning Science Journalist and Author
The website of British independent science journalist, author and broadcaster, Angela Saini. Her most recent book is Superior: The Return of Race Science.
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Erick Padilla @erickpadilla.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
New paper with @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social in EJPR: Does the "winner-loser gap" in democratic attitudes also apply to politicians? We extend some previous insights from recent literature on the topic by looking at 27 elections across 15 European countries. 🧵 buff.ly/UarD6eC
buff.ly
The winner–loser gap in democratic attitudes among politicians: Individual and collective outcomes | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
The winner–loser gap in democratic attitudes among politicians: Individual and collective outcomes
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Come and work with us! We are seeking a colleague to join us on a full-time, fixed-term basis as a Research and Enterprise Manager for the Faculty of Social Sciences: jobs.soton.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx... The role involves a range of interesting activities supporting research and knowledge exchange.
jobs.soton.ac.uk
Job Opportunity at the University of Southampton: Research and Enterprise Manager
The Faculty of Social Sciences is seeking a Research and Enterprise Manager to join the Faculty Operating Service. Based in the Faculty of Social Sciences, you will make an important contribution to l...
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James Dennison @jamesrdennison.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Special delivery! 📚 Very happy to receive the first copies of What Europeans Think About Immigration and Why It Matters, my new book with @andrewpgeddes.bsky.social, out now with @oxfordunipress.bsky.social Great to see this in physical form!
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
There will be several postdocs joining the department over the coming year and so it's a good time to join.
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 17/08/2026
Three pre-registered experiments. One story. But now with page numbers. Non-heterosexual behaviour/identities among men is punished significantly more than the same among women.
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 15/08/2026
Now is as good a time as ever to simply say that support services are available if you are in need of them. ; www.nhs.uk/mental-healt... findahelpline.com
nhs.uk
Help for suicidal thoughts
Where to get help if you are having suicidal thoughts, and what to do if you are worried about someone else.
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Pavlos Vasilopoulos @pavlosvas1.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Teaching political behaviour / psychology? You can now order a print inspection copy for my forthcoming textbook in political psychology. www.routledge.com/Key-Topics-i...
routledge.com
Key Topics in Political Psychology
This highly accessible book provides an overview of the discipline of political psychology. It breaks down political psychology into five key areas that discuss the history, impact and future directio...
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 11/08/2026
Exogenous opportunity to have your political say at the polls makes you more certain about what you want to say in the polling booth. Snap elections accelerate the formation of vote intentions and depress voter uncertainty. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
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Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
📣 We are hiring - please share! 👉 1-2 Postdoctoral Fellows with specialization in political data science or comparative politics as part of the ERC project “Authoritarian Threats to Scientific Knowledge” (AutoKnow)- PI Tore Wig. 📅3-4 years ⏳September 10, 2026. 🔗 www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060) | University of Oslo
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Thursday, September 10, 2026
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The Week in Polls @theweekinpolls.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Do opinion polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? buff.ly/4zkxUWY
buff.ly
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties?
This time, I’m taking a look at some new evidence about the accuracy of opinion polls.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Hot takes suggest that spending more on public schools doesn't help. But this cool paper (political scientists publishing in an econ journal 😎) shows that increasing public school spending improves test scores and graduation rates. gated: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
We are hiring a postdoc in Comparative Politics at JGU Mainz! Join our friendly and productive team, led by Armin Schäfer (@arminschaefer.bsky.social). • Full-time position • Five-year contract (!) • Start: from 1 October Apply by 22 August: stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de/jgu/job/56328 Please share!
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
If journal editorial is of interest to you - replace me at @jeppjournal.bsky.social as Associate Editor. I've loved working with JEPP. The team, papers, and reviewers have been awesome. Happy to answer questions if you have any. editorresources.taylorandfrancis.com/editor_recru...
editorresources.taylorandfrancis.com
Associate Editor needed for Journal of European Public Policy
Associate Editor needed for Journal of European Public Policy
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