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Aaron Strauss

@aaronstrauss.bsky.social
529 followers 323 following 783 posts

Following the evidence to elect more Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper

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Reposted by Aaron Strauss
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

    97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).
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Anna Alexandrova @annaalexandrova.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Somebody somewhere in Russia sent a drone to hit this great Kyiv institution. We mustn’t get used to this
nytimes.com
Russian Drone Strikes Ukraine’s Science Academy, Causing Fire in City Center (Gift Article)
A Russian jet-powered drone hit Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, the source of almost all of the country’s major scientific discoveries.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is a regular feature of data-matching, especially when done in a half-assed way. The purpose is to create the false claims of fraud. For example, Republicans complained for years about the risk of double voting. A credible system was built to detect it (ERIC). Then they killed it.
ERIC had been relatively uncontroversial since its creation. The idea behind it started in 2008, when election officials identified the potential for people to have multiple registrations in different states — in itself not surprising in a country that is at once highly mobile but operates a decentralized voting system — creating the potential for voting in different states. ERIC offered a tool that could track that problem, through a mixture of data sourcing and analytical tools that minimized false positives. By identifying moves and deaths, it allowed states to keep the voting rolls accurate. In 2013 it had seven members, which would increase to 32 states at its height.

Then in January of 2022, the Louisiana Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin dropped out of ERIC. He made his announcement to a group of far right election activists, to sustained applause. But for other election officials it was a puzzle. One state election official who worked for GOP secretaries of state said:

Everybody looked at this and said, 'This is insane, what are you talking about?' As soon as [Ardoin] did that — that created this pressure on the other Republican states that wasn't there before
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 24/09/2026
Yes. I think the consensus among US elite pundits and senior politicians that the way to protect liberal democracy is *not* to punish elite figures who violate its rules is wrong. A norm starting at least with the Watergate pardon. The opposite is true. You need to enforce the law and Constitution.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Confluence of indicators pointing to a huge swing and upset win in TX-23 -- NYT poll has Dem Katy Padilla Stout in the lead!
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Great @the-downballot.com nationwide analysis of how the Blue Wave could be a Blue Tsunami. Diving into specific districts, I found six non-DCCC-Red-to-Blue Dem challengers where Dem primary turnout exceeded R's. Trump won all these districts by 8 or more. Can we snatch some victories in '26? A 🧵
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Bethany Albertson @albertsonb2.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Our students don’t deserve this. For those who don’t understand UT Austin admissions, most undergrads get in bc they were top 5% of their graduating class, from a Texas high school. Anyone calling for more white students is advocating for race conscious admissions - to help out white students.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
So when I give to @wck.org some of that money goes to Google ads for the search term "GiveWell"? 😡😡😡
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Laura Belin @laurarbelin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Jess Djukanovic was denied care for a doomed pregnancy under Iowa's abortion ban and almost lost her life. When she was getting a ton of online hate last year for sharing her story, only one politician reached out. I caught up with Jess after @robsandia.bsky.social's Dallas County town hall.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇
Abstract for the paper "The Electoral Effects of U.S. Prison Construction" by Ottone & Weiss: From 1980 to 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons, a rapid expansion of carceral capacity mirroring the punitive turn in public policy and public opinion. Yet few studies have examined the impact of prison construction on nearby residents and their political behavior. We develop a theoretical model tracing how prison openings affect economic, attitudinal, and electoral outcomes in surrounding communities. Us- ing modern difference-in-difference methods and a novel county-level dataset covering forty years of prison openings, we find that prison construction decreases county-level vote share for Republican candidates, especially if Republicans represented the county during prison construction. Drawing on analyses of economic outcomes and prison bond measure support, we argue that voters sanction issue-owning Republican candi- dates for negative economic externalities and turn against funding for prisons. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about the political economy of prisons and have implications for how we understand contemporary expansions of carceral capacity.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm a Dem because I want people to have basic rights and healthcare. But I also love our party because we follow the damn evidence. & so we land in the same place: Swing voters aren't ideos; they have heterodox positions. Candidates' positions matter (tho maybe folks disagree on the exact amount)
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Melody Schreiber @melodyschreiber.com · 15/09/2026
Pennsylvania just announced the fourth death from measles this year. All patients were unvaccinated. This is so sad.
Pennsylvania Department of Health Confirms Two Additional Measles-Associated Deaths

 

Pennsylvania Department of Health has recorded four measles-associated deaths in 2026.

 

Getting vaccinated remains the best protection against measles, providing 97% lifetime protection after two doses.

 

Harrisburg, PA – The Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH) today confirmed two additional measles-associated deaths in Pennsylvania. Both individuals were unvaccinated. One individual lived in Jefferson County and the other lived in Mifflin County.

 

To protect the privacy of both individuals and their families, DOH will not be releasing any additional details that could personally identify them. While local officials in the respective counties where the deaths occurred may release more details about the deceased, DOH is bound by different laws that strictly limit what it can share publicly. The two additional deaths will be added to DOH’s measles dashboard Wednesday, as part of the regular update. 

 

The best protection against measles remains getting fully vaccinated. The MMR vaccine, administered over two doses, boosts a person’s immune system and provides 97% lifetime protection.
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I'll confess I'm shocked by this: seeing a respected progressive voice openly argue that it's better to defeat Democrats who have been flaky on trans rights than to secure Democratic control of the US Senate and US House. Unbelievably foolish, short-sighted, self-sabotaging nonsense.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I missed this when it came out in August, but the Post editorial board is now just a mouthpiece for fact-free claims by the Trump administration now. This is just demonstrably wrong. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Medicaid needs stronger work requirements
About 59 percent of nondisabled adults on Medicaid did not work in 2024, according to a think tank's estimate.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
30 year fixed rates at 7.08% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Jonathan Howard @joho.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
sciencebasedmedicine.org
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya on Measles: “I Think I’ve Done My Best.”
As football coach Bill Parcells famously said, “you are what your record says you are”.
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Doctor Memory @blank.org · 06/09/2026
“Socialist aesthetics with neoliberal tendencies” really feels like an entirely workable political alliance if we can just stop hissing at each other.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 05/09/2026
Climate scientists arguing for more parking and fewer bike lanes. Absolutely incredible, 11/10, no noted at all.
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Matthew Doyle @mattdoyle.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Ump wears No. 88, eh?
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Rude Law Dog @esghound.com · 05/09/2026
one misconception about football is that you can minimize this through limiting big hits or changing tacking, but the fundamental mechanics of the game, especially at the time of snap when linemen engage each other, involves little head to head collisions that add up over a lifetime
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Trump has been determined to disprove every argument that Electoral College proponents have made. No, it doesn’t compel candidates to pay attention to the interests of voters all over the country. It shields a tyrant from electoral blowback when he tells states that voted against him to drop dead
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Yeah, this voter's "be like Mamdani" *probably* meant being more progressive (h/t neat survey by @gelliottmorris.com) but the assumption reminded me of this anecdote in which voters thought Mamdani was conservative, like Trump. Focus on (low-info) voters' daily lives and they'll project the rest!
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Really helpful detailed rundown of DC’s improving school performance, including a lot of subgroup analysis which shows it’s not just gentrification — the results really are getting better. capitalcommonsense.substack.com/p/dc-student...
capitalcommonsense.substack.com
DC Students Post a Fourth Straight Year of Gains on the 2026 State Assessments
Guest Post from Josh Boots, founder of EmpowerK12
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Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
It is not a "grim choice" to support either a psychotic Republican or a mainstream center-left politician.
he Michigan Senate election has presented liberals with a grim choice. The Republican candidate, Mike Rogers, has pledged support for a corrupt, racist, authoritarian-minded administration. Rogers hasn’t made even the tiniest concession to Donald Trump critics. But supporting El-Sayed means accepting a strain of anti-Semitic politics that to date has had no place within the Democratic Party.

What’s more, El-Sayed has already said that he intends to use his victory as a platform to reshape the party. Him winning could invite a future in which the United States has not just one party that is open to bigots but two.

Although El-Sayed has never said anything nearly as inflammatory as the sorts of comments Piker makes routinely, his mixture of anti-Zionism and populism treats pro-Israel activism as a nefarious and all-pervasive force. He has denied that any Democrat who believes in human rights could have any motive other than money for holding a position on Israel different from the one he prefers. El-Sayed tends to depict nearly all opposition to his candidacy as financially driven, but when applied to Jewish political activity,  this charge becomes even more conspiratorial.
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I have, day in and day out since Jan 2025, posted hundreds of examples of Trump’s blatant corruption this term hoping that enough people notice and care. Here is the latest.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
This is one of the best pivots from "national process story" to "local signaling" I've ever seen -- from @robsandia.bsky.social
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Joel @itsjoels.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
This is the letter kids got at the end of Dolly’s Imagination Library. I defy you to read this and not cry.
Sorry, I can’t type that.
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Alice Miranda Ollstein @alicemiranda.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
One day after RFK's top allies were boasting about there being zero measles deaths this year, Pennsylvania reports 2 -- the first in the state in 35 years. Both of the deceased were unvaccinated. www.pa.gov/agencies/hea...
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Folks look at you like you're crazy when you say we're in the midst of the worst, most unprecedented Article I constitutional crisis in history, & then it's Monday.
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Meanwhile in Indiana… @robertlandrumjr.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Why, Governor Braun?! Why is NW Indiana STILL without power?!
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Congressman Greg Casar @repcasar.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
As a result, unless Liam's parents "agreed" for him to be deported with his father, Liam could be entirely separated from his family and put into custody. His family did what any family would do: agree. I saw how Trump's ICE uses kids as bait and leverage to fuel his mass deportation machine.
kut.org
5-year-old boy and father will be deported after ICE arrest on way to Austin soccer game
Liam Tadeo's father has chosen to return to Mexico with his son rather than risk the child being separated from his family. Liam was due to begin kindergarten in Austin this year.
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Nathan Newman @nathansnewman.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
A reminder the Reconquista was the takover of Spain by Christians that led to the mass cultural extermination of Jews and Muslims- led by the Spanish Inquistion If universities are being defunded for "anti-semitism" how are Musk companies NOT having every federal contract cancelled?
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Matthew Gertz @mattgertz.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
North Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley’s committees have spent over $100,000 for use of a private jet linked to a convicted felon open.substack.com/pub/populari...
open.substack.com
GOP Senate candidate, campaigning as truck-driving everyman, travels by private jet
North Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley’s committees have spent over $100,000 for use of a private jet linked to a convicted felon
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Jon Walker @jonwalkerpdx.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
To put this in perspective and relative news focus 14 million additional deaths is basically 100 times the size of current Sudan Civil War death toll 100 times the number of Ukrainians killed by the Russian invasion 200 times the death toll in Gaza 500 times the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar
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Jerry Boyle @jecboyle.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
This is some bullshit.
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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 7.8k) -- Good morning to everyone whose job involves communicating about probability: Just under half of Americans can correctly interpret a weather forecast! yougov.com/en-us/daily-...
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Dave Awl @daveawl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
All school districts should ban smart glasses ASAP. No messing around. These are tools for bullying, harassment, and privacy invasion. They don't belong in schools.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/08/2026
at @fiftyplusone.news we vet every pollster before we put "data" from them on our website. we did not include any polls from "median strategies" and have a forthcoming article about this. this is why you should just spam refresh the FiftyPlusOne website, instead of following meme aggregators on X
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Bonica himself (as cited by Morris) published a paper that said ideology matters particularly in competitive races and high salience ones like a US Senate seat. They don't publish it, but you can infer something like 4 points of margin in a competitive Senate race from ideology alone.
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Assignment Understander @90sslowjamz.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The Anakin/Padme meme with Anakin saying “Well, here we are in the catacombs.” And padme says “For the Amontillado?” And Anakin looks back at her and she is partially covered by a brick wall
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Charlotte Clymer @charlotteclymer.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
"...the kind of guest essay NYT loves publishing: it's not the world that needs to change — it's LGBTQ people who need to understand their place and reduce themselves and take up the burden for the peace of others at the expense of their own." charlotteclymer.substack.com/p/sometimes-...
charlotteclymer.substack.com
Sometimes, Cutting Off Parents is the Answer
And we should honor that.
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Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
This is the greatest summary of the failed Pivot to Asia I've ever seen. @diplomatofnight.com
Lionel Hutz showing the U.S. Government's business card: "Pivot to Asia No Middle East Wars"

Hutz" "Oh They got this all screwed up!"

Hutz fixes the business card: "Pivot to Asia? No, middle east wars!"
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
People are mad at Nate Cohn over this statement but it seems pretty consistent with Bailey Reese (2025) which looks at how candidates talk about themselves in evaluating the impact of moderation on campaign outcomes particularly in competitive races. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Yep, and it's pretty stark (from a 2022 poll): • Give me democracy: 38% • Nah, just lower prices please: 54% And it's WORSE among apolitical swing/turnout voters who actually decide elections.
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depths of wikipedia @depthsofwikipedia.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
you need to read this entire section it's crazy!!!!!! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanner_...
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 15/08/2026
These gloves don't cause neuromuscular incapacitation the way that a taser does. In fact, they only work when applied directly to bare skin. These aren't made for apprehending anyone. These have one and only one use: causing extreme pain to already-restrained captives. In plain language: torture.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
A common mistake among pundits and practitioners alike is to draw a bright line between turnout targets and persuasion targets. That's simply wrong and @carlosodio.bsky.social has a great explainer today, looking at the Latino 2024 vote specifically: thenewdynamic.weareequis.us/p/a-change-o...
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The Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Not to be some wild-eyed innocent, but I think it should be slightly bigger news that The Lancet have crunched the numbers and found that Musk's USAID cuts will kill 14 million people. And that's just by 2030. That's 9,600 people a day, every day, until the next world cup rolls around.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13/08/2026
I have reanalyzed polling microdata from two surveys in Wisconsin, generously shared with me by State Navigate, and put the results up Strength In Numbers for all to learn from. As far as I know this is the only public autopsy from Tuesday's miss www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-13...
gelliottmorris.com
I re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.
What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
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