Reposted by Aaron StraussAriel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20... 7445157
Reposted by Aaron StraussAnna Alexandrova @annaalexandrova.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Somebody somewhere in Russia sent a drone to hit this great Kyiv institution. We mustn’t get used to thisnytimes.comRussian Drone Strikes Ukraine’s Science Academy, Causing Fire in City Center (Gift Article)A Russian jet-powered drone hit Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, the source of almost all of the country’s major scientific discoveries. 0125
Reposted by Aaron StraussDon Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026This is a regular feature of data-matching, especially when done in a half-assed way. The purpose is to create the false claims of fraud. For example, Republicans complained for years about the risk of double voting. A credible system was built to detect it (ERIC). Then they killed it. 12898334
Reposted by Aaron StraussJonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 24/09/2026Yes. I think the consensus among US elite pundits and senior politicians that the way to protect liberal democracy is *not* to punish elite figures who violate its rules is wrong. A norm starting at least with the Watergate pardon. The opposite is true. You need to enforce the law and Constitution. 562272532
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Confluence of indicators pointing to a huge swing and upset win in TX-23 -- NYT poll has Dem Katy Padilla Stout in the lead! 001
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Great @the-downballot.com nationwide analysis of how the Blue Wave could be a Blue Tsunami. Diving into specific districts, I found six non-DCCC-Red-to-Blue Dem challengers where Dem primary turnout exceeded R's. Trump won all these districts by 8 or more. Can we snatch some victories in '26? A 🧵 111
Reposted by Aaron StraussBethany Albertson @albertsonb2.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Our students don’t deserve this. For those who don’t understand UT Austin admissions, most undergrads get in bc they were top 5% of their graduating class, from a Texas high school. Anyone calling for more white students is advocating for race conscious admissions - to help out white students. 201370341
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 19/09/2026So when I give to @wck.org some of that money goes to Google ads for the search term "GiveWell"? 😡😡😡 001
Reposted by Aaron StraussLaura Belin @laurarbelin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Jess Djukanovic was denied care for a doomed pregnancy under Iowa's abortion ban and almost lost her life. When she was getting a ton of online hate last year for sharing her story, only one politician reached out. I caught up with Jess after @robsandia.bsky.social's Dallas County town hall. 03912
Reposted by Aaron StraussAmanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇 22915
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 17/09/2026I'm a Dem because I want people to have basic rights and healthcare. But I also love our party because we follow the damn evidence. & so we land in the same place: Swing voters aren't ideos; they have heterodox positions. Candidates' positions matter (tho maybe folks disagree on the exact amount) 110
Reposted by Aaron StraussMelody Schreiber @melodyschreiber.com · 15/09/2026Pennsylvania just announced the fourth death from measles this year. All patients were unvaccinated. This is so sad. 311258
Reposted by Aaron StraussWill Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 12/09/2026I'll confess I'm shocked by this: seeing a respected progressive voice openly argue that it's better to defeat Democrats who have been flaky on trans rights than to secure Democratic control of the US Senate and US House. Unbelievably foolish, short-sighted, self-sabotaging nonsense. 3301438196
Reposted by Aaron StraussDon Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026I missed this when it came out in August, but the Post editorial board is now just a mouthpiece for fact-free claims by the Trump administration now. This is just demonstrably wrong. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...washingtonpost.comOpinion | Medicaid needs stronger work requirementsAbout 59 percent of nondisabled adults on Medicaid did not work in 2024, according to a think tank's estimate. 16464105
Reposted by Aaron StraussBill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/202630 year fixed rates at 7.08% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 0246
Reposted by Aaron StraussJonathan Howard @joho.bsky.social · 09/09/2026sciencebasedmedicine.orgDr. Jay Bhattacharya on Measles: “I Think I’ve Done My Best.”As football coach Bill Parcells famously said, “you are what your record says you are”. 6285148
Reposted by Aaron StraussDoctor Memory @blank.org · 06/09/2026“Socialist aesthetics with neoliberal tendencies” really feels like an entirely workable political alliance if we can just stop hissing at each other. 623729
Reposted by Aaron StraussGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 05/09/2026Climate scientists arguing for more parking and fewer bike lanes. Absolutely incredible, 11/10, no noted at all. 1639340
Reposted by Aaron StraussMatthew Doyle @mattdoyle.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Ump wears No. 88, eh? 616115
Reposted by Aaron StraussRude Law Dog @esghound.com · 05/09/2026one misconception about football is that you can minimize this through limiting big hits or changing tacking, but the fundamental mechanics of the game, especially at the time of snap when linemen engage each other, involves little head to head collisions that add up over a lifetime 2545573
Reposted by Aaron StraussStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Trump has been determined to disprove every argument that Electoral College proponents have made. No, it doesn’t compel candidates to pay attention to the interests of voters all over the country. It shields a tyrant from electoral blowback when he tells states that voted against him to drop dead 3350122
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Yeah, this voter's "be like Mamdani" *probably* meant being more progressive (h/t neat survey by @gelliottmorris.com) but the assumption reminded me of this anecdote in which voters thought Mamdani was conservative, like Trump. Focus on (low-info) voters' daily lives and they'll project the rest! 200
Reposted by Aaron StraussMatthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Really helpful detailed rundown of DC’s improving school performance, including a lot of subgroup analysis which shows it’s not just gentrification — the results really are getting better. capitalcommonsense.substack.com/p/dc-student...capitalcommonsense.substack.comDC Students Post a Fourth Straight Year of Gains on the 2026 State AssessmentsGuest Post from Josh Boots, founder of EmpowerK12 1603
Reposted by Aaron StraussMichael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 28/08/2026It is not a "grim choice" to support either a psychotic Republican or a mainstream center-left politician. 702317243
Reposted by Aaron StraussRon Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 27/08/2026I have, day in and day out since Jan 2025, posted hundreds of examples of Trump’s blatant corruption this term hoping that enough people notice and care. Here is the latest. 742347983
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 26/08/2026This is one of the best pivots from "national process story" to "local signaling" I've ever seen -- from @robsandia.bsky.social 100
Reposted by Aaron StraussJoel @itsjoels.bsky.social · 25/08/2026This is the letter kids got at the end of Dolly’s Imagination Library. I defy you to read this and not cry. 7253894611282
Reposted by Aaron StraussAlice Miranda Ollstein @alicemiranda.bsky.social · 25/08/2026One day after RFK's top allies were boasting about there being zero measles deaths this year, Pennsylvania reports 2 -- the first in the state in 35 years. Both of the deceased were unvaccinated. www.pa.gov/agencies/hea... 23438129
Reposted by Aaron StraussMark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Folks look at you like you're crazy when you say we're in the midst of the worst, most unprecedented Article I constitutional crisis in history, & then it's Monday. 19742273
Reposted by Aaron StraussMeanwhile in Indiana… @robertlandrumjr.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Why, Governor Braun?! Why is NW Indiana STILL without power?! 1071248464
Reposted by Aaron StraussCongressman Greg Casar @repcasar.bsky.social · 24/08/2026As a result, unless Liam's parents "agreed" for him to be deported with his father, Liam could be entirely separated from his family and put into custody. His family did what any family would do: agree. I saw how Trump's ICE uses kids as bait and leverage to fuel his mass deportation machine.kut.org5-year-old boy and father will be deported after ICE arrest on way to Austin soccer gameLiam Tadeo's father has chosen to return to Mexico with his son rather than risk the child being separated from his family. Liam was due to begin kindergarten in Austin this year. 16135
Reposted by Aaron StraussNathan Newman @nathansnewman.bsky.social · 24/08/2026A reminder the Reconquista was the takover of Spain by Christians that led to the mass cultural extermination of Jews and Muslims- led by the Spanish Inquistion If universities are being defunded for "anti-semitism" how are Musk companies NOT having every federal contract cancelled? 251402346
Reposted by Aaron StraussMatthew Gertz @mattgertz.bsky.social · 24/08/2026North Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley’s committees have spent over $100,000 for use of a private jet linked to a convicted felon open.substack.com/pub/populari...open.substack.comGOP Senate candidate, campaigning as truck-driving everyman, travels by private jetNorth Carolina Senate nominee Michael Whatley’s committees have spent over $100,000 for use of a private jet linked to a convicted felon 729797
Reposted by Aaron StraussJon Walker @jonwalkerpdx.bsky.social · 23/08/2026To put this in perspective and relative news focus 14 million additional deaths is basically 100 times the size of current Sudan Civil War death toll 100 times the number of Ukrainians killed by the Russian invasion 200 times the death toll in Gaza 500 times the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar 131
Reposted by Aaron StraussJLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 21/08/2026The latest from YouGov (n ~ 7.8k) -- Good morning to everyone whose job involves communicating about probability: Just under half of Americans can correctly interpret a weather forecast! yougov.com/en-us/daily-... 2915926
Reposted by Aaron StraussDave Awl @daveawl.bsky.social · 19/08/2026All school districts should ban smart glasses ASAP. No messing around. These are tools for bullying, harassment, and privacy invasion. They don't belong in schools. 27019
Reposted by Aaron StraussG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/08/2026at @fiftyplusone.news we vet every pollster before we put "data" from them on our website. we did not include any polls from "median strategies" and have a forthcoming article about this. this is why you should just spam refresh the FiftyPlusOne website, instead of following meme aggregators on X 725036
Reposted by Aaron StraussJoel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Bonica himself (as cited by Morris) published a paper that said ideology matters particularly in competitive races and high salience ones like a US Senate seat. They don't publish it, but you can infer something like 4 points of margin in a competitive Senate race from ideology alone. 041
Reposted by Aaron StraussCharlotte Clymer @charlotteclymer.bsky.social · 17/08/2026"...the kind of guest essay NYT loves publishing: it's not the world that needs to change — it's LGBTQ people who need to understand their place and reduce themselves and take up the burden for the peace of others at the expense of their own." charlotteclymer.substack.com/p/sometimes-...charlotteclymer.substack.comSometimes, Cutting Off Parents is the AnswerAnd we should honor that. 1943389
Reposted by Aaron StraussNathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · 17/08/2026This is the greatest summary of the failed Pivot to Asia I've ever seen. @diplomatofnight.com 425947
Reposted by Aaron StraussJoel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 16/08/2026People are mad at Nate Cohn over this statement but it seems pretty consistent with Bailey Reese (2025) which looks at how candidates talk about themselves in evaluating the impact of moderation on campaign outcomes particularly in competitive races. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 2153
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Yep, and it's pretty stark (from a 2022 poll): • Give me democracy: 38% • Nah, just lower prices please: 54% And it's WORSE among apolitical swing/turnout voters who actually decide elections. 000
Reposted by Aaron Straussdepths of wikipedia @depthsofwikipedia.bsky.social · 15/08/2026you need to read this entire section it's crazy!!!!!! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanner_... 2271356
Reposted by Aaron StraussCarl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 15/08/2026These gloves don't cause neuromuscular incapacitation the way that a taser does. In fact, they only work when applied directly to bare skin. These aren't made for apprehending anyone. These have one and only one use: causing extreme pain to already-restrained captives. In plain language: torture. 8761182639
Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 13/08/2026A common mistake among pundits and practitioners alike is to draw a bright line between turnout targets and persuasion targets. That's simply wrong and @carlosodio.bsky.social has a great explainer today, looking at the Latino 2024 vote specifically: thenewdynamic.weareequis.us/p/a-change-o... 020
Reposted by Aaron StraussThe Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Not to be some wild-eyed innocent, but I think it should be slightly bigger news that The Lancet have crunched the numbers and found that Musk's USAID cuts will kill 14 million people. And that's just by 2030. That's 9,600 people a day, every day, until the next world cup rolls around. 7350482755
Reposted by Aaron StraussG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13/08/2026I have reanalyzed polling microdata from two surveys in Wisconsin, generously shared with me by State Navigate, and put the results up Strength In Numbers for all to learn from. As far as I know this is the only public autopsy from Tuesday's miss www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-13...gelliottmorris.comI re-analyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls 1529790