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Joel Wertheimer

@wertwhile.bsky.social
6.6K followers 558 following 4.1K posts

Civil rights attorney. COYS.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2h
I'll believe AI is a truly transformative technology when I never have to file stuff to ECF personally ever again.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 3h
Everything I have heard about this bill is that it is more or less excellent and the planet would benefit a lot of it passes and I hope it does and it becomes law.
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Mikhail Gorbaechev @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 3h
Lotta people defended this fucking guy to me in 2020 and all of you are suckers and losers.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 3h
Via @purrtah.bsky.social, the ActBlue machine is kicking into gear, which will shift ad spending dynamics a lot because it's mostly hard dollars.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20h
Jeff a must follow on polling stuff from somebody on D side doing the actual campaign polling.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Congratulations to my friend @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social for being a 2026 MacArthur Fellow. I always knew she was a genius and this confirms it. 🥳
macfound.org
Holly Jean Buck
Investigating the social, ethical, and political dimensions of climate and energy policies and emerging technologies.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23h
From Nate Cohn on Twitter in 2024 here are actual vote probabilities by self reported likelihood of voting using the voter file.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Really do not like LV screens that just cut off everybody who says anything less than definitely.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Among all the reasons it’s bad Elon is a Nazi, not being able to buy a Tesla is a small one, but it really does seem like they’ve figured out FSD recently.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
On the verge of tossing out all Marist polls right now. They’re not weighting to partisan variables sufficiently it feels like.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
lol the reporting on the Anthropic s1 makes me update positively on their future. We know their revenues have grown a ton and they keep making the best models and seem to have lower compute commitments.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
What I'm really hoping is that Tyson deliberately played with the truth in this ad so that the Marshall campaign would amplify it.
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Eric Mallory Morgan @ericmakesmistakes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Your read is the same as mine and I lived it.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is the graph in Joey's thread/article that makes me think AI had very little to do with these losses. This is a chart of the streaming wars, covid, a surge to finish delayed projects, and the end of the streaming wars.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Stupid
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
UMASS Lowell out with a poll with Jackson up 5 points. www.uml.edu/docs/2026-Se...
uml.edu
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If you want a pick me up via the NYT after that Maine poll, read this Senate focus group with Trump voters www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Paxton, Talarico and the Senate Race in Texas: 12 Voters Discuss
The group discusses the economy, the president and the U.S. Senate race in Texas.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Maine, with its low population is a place where money differences really matter and Collins has been crushing Jackson on the air. Donations directly to candidates are worth 2-4x what PACs get to spend also in terms of ads, so give to Troy.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I think it’s mostly that Susan Collins is a moderate who has worked hard to be viewed as moderate even when its fame and it’s really easy to see when opponents do it.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Cue freakout. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/u...
nytimes.com
Collins Leads in Maine in Our New Poll. Is That an Outlier or an Omen?
There’s nothing more uncomfortable for a pollster than a result that stands out from the pack, but it doesn’t mean it should be dismissed.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
CNN did not post an LV model of their poll today unlike the same time period in 2018 and 2022. They did show Democrats leading by 20 among extremely motivated voters though.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The important thing is to always be a process truster. From April. If people hate the president they’ll vote for the other party in the midterms I never want to read about party favorability again. wertwhile.substack.com/p/trumps-app...
wertwhile.substack.com
Trump's Approval is in the Tank, Where is the Generic Ballot?
It's fine and normal. Dems will win by 8 or 9 and obviously it could get worse depending on Iran.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The main reason I'm less concerned about polling error is that there are just smaller errors in the midterms. Using 538 data absolute error in midterms averages 1.5% rather than the 2.5% in presidentials and 3.5% the last 3 cycles.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
One thing about Maine (and New Hampshire) that I think is maybe under-appreciated is that a lot of people are about to buy like 250 gallons of diesel to heat their homes this winter.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
It's a great song. If you want to understand how the changes to the charts are affecting things listen to Wesley Morris (always listen to Wesley Morris) www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/p...
nytimes.com
Who Keeps On Choosin’ Texas?
Nevermind that cowboy at the bar.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I’m as skeptical as the next guy of this particular poll but were this a likely voter poll that would be reasonably accurate I think. Democrats are going to have a turnout advantage this year and going from -9 to -6 seems reasonable.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Uhhhh
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
My big recommendation is that everybody should read one Dennett book, whether From Bacteria to Bach and Back or Consciousness Explained or Kinds of Minds. You don’t have to agree with him for the concepts to be vital.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Since this is happening might as well share my Dennett and Parfit post wertwhile.substack.com/p/it-doesnt-...
wertwhile.substack.com
It Doesn’t Matter if AI Is “Real,” Go Ahead and Anthropomorphize LLMs If It’s Useful
A post begging people to read Daniel Dennett, think a little harder about the nature of human consciousness, personhood, and AI safety.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I'm sorry if your reaction to the Hamilton campaign executing a perfect oppo hit on Roger Marshall is to complain about the campaign, you have a terminal case of Dems are bad brain. The Times article didn't just come out of nowhere!
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The GOP has a huge money advantage on air right now which may in fact be making their numbers look better than they should. On the other hand, maybe the GOP's money advantage isn't turning into polling points because their ads are bad and not tested.
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JDPink @jdpink.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The polls right now are apocalyptic for Republicans but also that is exactly what we should expect. Leave aside everything, Trump's approval rating right now is -20.4 per Nate Silver, in his first term on the same date it was -12.6. It's the single most unpopular a president has been on midterm 9/18
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Adam Hamilton leading Marshall in Emerson poll. emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/
emersoncollegepolling.com
Kansas 2026: Hamilton and Marshall in Tight Senate Race; Masterson Leads for Governor  - Emerson Polling
Economy top issue for voters A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll finds 45% of…Full Release & Results
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Yes but if you combine shelter CPI and mortgage rates into a single mortgage payment index this is what it looks like @proptermalone.bsky.social. Obviously this isn't most people's mortgage rate but it obviously matters a lot! (Also stop citing UMich data)
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Excellent piece from Nick Birkhead on what needs to be done to expand American firm power supply. www.employamerica.org/expanding-en...
employamerica.org
After the Aging Coal Fleet: Ramping Advanced Firm Power
During the confirmation hearing of Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Senator Jim Justice of West Virginia shared his opinion on the importance of energy:  “West Virginia truly knows energy. That’s all t...
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
As we all know this will hurt her in the election because she took a popular moderate position because she read some issue polling and broke with Trump rather than standing up for conservative values.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Gonna do a little thread here jumping off this post because I think what's been happening underneath the hood is really interesting. First is that Texas has gotten much more Dem since 2012 relative to the country, but gave back some of that change in 2024.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Okay yes this is a good thread on my issues with that thread.
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tautologer @tautologer.com · 17/09/2026
look I'm pretty close to all this stuff so treat me as biased. but fwiw i identify as neither rationalist nor EA and have been monogamous all my life most of this thread is factually true, but imo substantially misleading—more so about EA and AI safety at large than rationalists per se
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is a useful and mostly accurate very long thread though I think (1) unfair to the rationalist/EA distinction and (2) unfair to AI safety concerns. It's 100% accurate about the bizarre thinking, deeply intertwined nature of the Bay area crew, and the sex cult stuff though.
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Danny Page @danny.page · 15/09/2026
I like this pragmatic and practical take from @wertwhile.bsky.social on how to think and reason about LLMs thinking and reasoning. wertwhile.substack.com/p/it-doesnt-...
wertwhile.substack.com
It Doesn’t Matter if AI Is “Real,” Go Ahead and Anthropomorphize LLMs If It’s Useful
A post begging people to read Daniel Dennett, think a little harder about the nature of human consciousness, personhood, and AI safety.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Had an AI post I needed to get off my chest. wertwhile.substack.com/p/it-doesnt-...
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Took Conor's chart and asked Claude to make a rough MRP of the swing from 2024 based on these numbers and now you have an interactive tool to play with. joelwfllp.github.io/state-swing-...
joelwfllp.github.io
State swing model, 2024 to the 2026 generic ballot
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
If friends and family ask you who to donate money to this fall, really think you could do worse than this from Nate Silver, the Senate voter power index, which is basically a state's odds of being the tipping point in the election relative to its population.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
This is just straight up dishonest. Everything that Rob Sand does is straight out of that playbook much more than Turek and it works! Also we know moderation works better for gubernatorial races than senatorial races.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
In Texas the last two midterms on average did not overstate Dems. In 2020, polls in Texas overstated Dems but the error was mostly in line with the national secular error. 2024 is really the only big Texas specific miss.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Grocery inflation coming to a store near you.
I’m
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Netflix coverage is…awful?
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