Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2hI'll believe AI is a truly transformative technology when I never have to file stuff to ECF personally ever again. 050
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 3hEverything I have heard about this bill is that it is more or less excellent and the planet would benefit a lot of it passes and I hope it does and it becomes law. 1377
Reposted by Joel WertheimerMikhail Gorbaechev @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 3hLotta people defended this fucking guy to me in 2020 and all of you are suckers and losers. 2658761
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 3hVia @purrtah.bsky.social, the ActBlue machine is kicking into gear, which will shift ad spending dynamics a lot because it's mostly hard dollars. 1170
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20hJeff a must follow on polling stuff from somebody on D side doing the actual campaign polling. 061
Reposted by Joel WertheimerDavid Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Congratulations to my friend @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social for being a 2026 MacArthur Fellow. I always knew she was a genius and this confirms it. 🥳macfound.orgHolly Jean BuckInvestigating the social, ethical, and political dimensions of climate and energy policies and emerging technologies. 314722
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23hFrom Nate Cohn on Twitter in 2024 here are actual vote probabilities by self reported likelihood of voting using the voter file. 170
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Really do not like LV screens that just cut off everybody who says anything less than definitely. 3275
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Among all the reasons it’s bad Elon is a Nazi, not being able to buy a Tesla is a small one, but it really does seem like they’ve figured out FSD recently. 111
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026On the verge of tossing out all Marist polls right now. They’re not weighting to partisan variables sufficiently it feels like. 270
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026lol the reporting on the Anthropic s1 makes me update positively on their future. We know their revenues have grown a ton and they keep making the best models and seem to have lower compute commitments. 1100
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026What I'm really hoping is that Tyson deliberately played with the truth in this ad so that the Marshall campaign would amplify it. 150
Reposted by Joel WertheimerEric Mallory Morgan @ericmakesmistakes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Your read is the same as mine and I lived it. 041
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026This is the graph in Joey's thread/article that makes me think AI had very little to do with these losses. This is a chart of the streaming wars, covid, a surge to finish delayed projects, and the end of the streaming wars. 4816
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026UMASS Lowell out with a poll with Jackson up 5 points. www.uml.edu/docs/2026-Se...uml.edu 090
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026If you want a pick me up via the NYT after that Maine poll, read this Senate focus group with Trump voters www.nytimes.com/interactive/...nytimes.comOpinion | Paxton, Talarico and the Senate Race in Texas: 12 Voters DiscussThe group discusses the economy, the president and the U.S. Senate race in Texas. 4142
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Maine, with its low population is a place where money differences really matter and Collins has been crushing Jackson on the air. Donations directly to candidates are worth 2-4x what PACs get to spend also in terms of ads, so give to Troy. 0197
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I think it’s mostly that Susan Collins is a moderate who has worked hard to be viewed as moderate even when its fame and it’s really easy to see when opponents do it. 7393
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Cue freakout. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/u...nytimes.comCollins Leads in Maine in Our New Poll. Is That an Outlier or an Omen?There’s nothing more uncomfortable for a pollster than a result that stands out from the pack, but it doesn’t mean it should be dismissed. 7649
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23/09/2026CNN did not post an LV model of their poll today unlike the same time period in 2018 and 2022. They did show Democrats leading by 20 among extremely motivated voters though. 191
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The important thing is to always be a process truster. From April. If people hate the president they’ll vote for the other party in the midterms I never want to read about party favorability again. wertwhile.substack.com/p/trumps-app...wertwhile.substack.comTrump's Approval is in the Tank, Where is the Generic Ballot?It's fine and normal. Dems will win by 8 or 9 and obviously it could get worse depending on Iran. 1382
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The main reason I'm less concerned about polling error is that there are just smaller errors in the midterms. Using 538 data absolute error in midterms averages 1.5% rather than the 2.5% in presidentials and 3.5% the last 3 cycles. 2254
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026One thing about Maine (and New Hampshire) that I think is maybe under-appreciated is that a lot of people are about to buy like 250 gallons of diesel to heat their homes this winter. 53510
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026It's a great song. If you want to understand how the changes to the charts are affecting things listen to Wesley Morris (always listen to Wesley Morris) www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/p...nytimes.comWho Keeps On Choosin’ Texas?Nevermind that cowboy at the bar. 161
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I’m as skeptical as the next guy of this particular poll but were this a likely voter poll that would be reasonably accurate I think. Democrats are going to have a turnout advantage this year and going from -9 to -6 seems reasonable. 270
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 21/09/2026My big recommendation is that everybody should read one Dennett book, whether From Bacteria to Bach and Back or Consciousness Explained or Kinds of Minds. You don’t have to agree with him for the concepts to be vital. 1191
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Since this is happening might as well share my Dennett and Parfit post wertwhile.substack.com/p/it-doesnt-...wertwhile.substack.comIt Doesn’t Matter if AI Is “Real,” Go Ahead and Anthropomorphize LLMs If It’s UsefulA post begging people to read Daniel Dennett, think a little harder about the nature of human consciousness, personhood, and AI safety. 1162
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20/09/2026I'm sorry if your reaction to the Hamilton campaign executing a perfect oppo hit on Roger Marshall is to complain about the campaign, you have a terminal case of Dems are bad brain. The Times article didn't just come out of nowhere! 1528
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026The GOP has a huge money advantage on air right now which may in fact be making their numbers look better than they should. On the other hand, maybe the GOP's money advantage isn't turning into polling points because their ads are bad and not tested. 3251
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026The polls right now are apocalyptic for Republicans but also that is exactly what we should expect. Leave aside everything, Trump's approval rating right now is -20.4 per Nate Silver, in his first term on the same date it was -12.6. It's the single most unpopular a president has been on midterm 9/18 46611
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Adam Hamilton leading Marshall in Emerson poll. emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/emersoncollegepolling.comKansas 2026: Hamilton and Marshall in Tight Senate Race; Masterson Leads for Governor - Emerson PollingEconomy top issue for voters A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll finds 45% of…Full Release & Results 361
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Yes but if you combine shelter CPI and mortgage rates into a single mortgage payment index this is what it looks like @proptermalone.bsky.social. Obviously this isn't most people's mortgage rate but it obviously matters a lot! (Also stop citing UMich data) 4355
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Excellent piece from Nick Birkhead on what needs to be done to expand American firm power supply. www.employamerica.org/expanding-en...employamerica.orgAfter the Aging Coal Fleet: Ramping Advanced Firm PowerDuring the confirmation hearing of Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Senator Jim Justice of West Virginia shared his opinion on the importance of energy: “West Virginia truly knows energy. That’s all t... 010
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026As we all know this will hurt her in the election because she took a popular moderate position because she read some issue polling and broke with Trump rather than standing up for conservative values. 070
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Gonna do a little thread here jumping off this post because I think what's been happening underneath the hood is really interesting. First is that Texas has gotten much more Dem since 2012 relative to the country, but gave back some of that change in 2024. 111124
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Okay yes this is a good thread on my issues with that thread. 050
Reposted by Joel Wertheimertautologer @tautologer.com · 17/09/2026look I'm pretty close to all this stuff so treat me as biased. but fwiw i identify as neither rationalist nor EA and have been monogamous all my life most of this thread is factually true, but imo substantially misleading—more so about EA and AI safety at large than rationalists per se 1014212
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 17/09/2026This is a useful and mostly accurate very long thread though I think (1) unfair to the rationalist/EA distinction and (2) unfair to AI safety concerns. It's 100% accurate about the bizarre thinking, deeply intertwined nature of the Bay area crew, and the sex cult stuff though. 060
Reposted by Joel WertheimerDanny Page @danny.page · 15/09/2026I like this pragmatic and practical take from @wertwhile.bsky.social on how to think and reason about LLMs thinking and reasoning. wertwhile.substack.com/p/it-doesnt-...wertwhile.substack.comIt Doesn’t Matter if AI Is “Real,” Go Ahead and Anthropomorphize LLMs If It’s UsefulA post begging people to read Daniel Dennett, think a little harder about the nature of human consciousness, personhood, and AI safety. 151
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Had an AI post I needed to get off my chest. wertwhile.substack.com/p/it-doesnt-... 060
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Took Conor's chart and asked Claude to make a rough MRP of the swing from 2024 based on these numbers and now you have an interactive tool to play with. joelwfllp.github.io/state-swing-...joelwfllp.github.ioState swing model, 2024 to the 2026 generic ballot 194
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 14/09/2026If friends and family ask you who to donate money to this fall, really think you could do worse than this from Nate Silver, the Senate voter power index, which is basically a state's odds of being the tipping point in the election relative to its population. 190
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026This is just straight up dishonest. Everything that Rob Sand does is straight out of that playbook much more than Turek and it works! Also we know moderation works better for gubernatorial races than senatorial races. 5362
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026In Texas the last two midterms on average did not overstate Dems. In 2020, polls in Texas overstated Dems but the error was mostly in line with the national secular error. 2024 is really the only big Texas specific miss. 2234
Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Grocery inflation coming to a store near you. 33911