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FiftyPlusOne.news

@fiftyplusone.news
6.4K followers 2 following 78 posts

polling aggregation and data-driven journalism from the former research team of fivethirtyeight. www.FiftyPlusOne.news

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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 25/09/2026
Flock cameras are everywhere lately, both literally and in the news. Today's Trendline takes a look at how unpopular these cameras are with Americans across the political spectrum, and what uses are (and aren't) acceptable. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/flock-came...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Americans are skeptical of Flock cameras
Plus, polls about the economy, the United Nations, and how often people lie
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 18/09/2026
New Trendline this week: where do Hispanic voters stand ahead of the election? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/hispanic-v...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Hispanic voters are moving back toward Democrats
Data shows Democrats clawing back ground with Hispanic voters, driven less by newfound support for the party and more by economic frustration with Trump.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 18/09/2026
If it feels like every poll you’ve seen this year came from a Democratic campaign and showed a toss-up, you’re not imagining things. Dem. internals make up an all-time high share of internals this year, and are showing better margins than 2018 in red states. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why-does-e...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Why does every poll seem to show a tossup now?
Campaigns see internal polls as tools for fundraising
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 15/09/2026
According to our election model at FiftyPlusOne.news, control of the U.S. Senate now leans toward Democrats. The party has been buoyed by new polls showing it ahead in TX, IA, AK, OH, & ME, and has a 64% chance to control the chamber after November's midterms fiftyplusone.news/forecast/sen...
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 11/09/2026
New: Ahead of the midterms, who do (and don't) Americans trust for accurate information? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/maybe-amer...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Maybe America's trust problem isn't as dire as it looks
Plus, polls about sports, 9/11, and America’s favorite cocktails.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 09/09/2026
We’re adding a new scatter chart to our forecast for subscribers only that shows how the national popular vote in the 2026 midterm election translates to seats in the House and Senate. fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house
Promo image that reads "How the popular vote translate to House and Senate seats"
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 04/09/2026
New: Concern about corruption in the U.S. government just hit a record high, and exceeds concerns in virtually every other country on Earth. Are voters right to be worried? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/the-us-isn...
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The U.S. isn't that corrupt. Try telling voters that.
Perceived corruption in the U.S. just hit its highest point in decades. The real story is a bit more complicated.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 28/08/2026
New: As the trade wars heat up, even Americans approve of Canada's retaliatory tariffs. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/even-ameri...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Even Americans are cheering for Canada's tariffs
Plus, polls about UFOs, a major social media settlement, and Dolly Parton.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 21/08/2026
Trendline this week: rural and suburban voters are looking more Democratic on the generic ballot than at any time in the last decade. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/rural-and-...
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Rural and suburban voters haven’t looked this Democratic since 2018
Plus, polls on social security, corruption, and the most popular sporting activities.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 20/08/2026
We are permanently banning one firm and suspending another for apparent ethics violations. Read more: substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
We’re suspending two pollsters from FiftyPlusOne for ethics violations
Both pollsters appear to have failed to disclose that a campaign paid for their surveys, and one admits to changing voters’ responses in favor of the candidate that allegedly paid for the survey.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 14/08/2026
New: Independent voters could decide the midterms. And on every metric we looked at, they are unhappy. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/independen...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Independents could decide the midterms — and they aren't happy
Plus, polls about youth sports, masculinity, and how to pack a suitcase
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 13/08/2026
We adjusted fifteen years of campaign finance data so we could crown the One True Most Expensive Primary Election Ever (so far): Michigan's 2026 Democratic primary for Senate blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/this-years...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
This year’s primaries will be the most expensive on record
What fifteen years of inflation-adjusted campaign spending data tells us about politics in 2026
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 10/08/2026
The new @fiftyplusone.news general election polling averages also include five gov races where they have enough data to generate averages. Dems are leading in Iowa and Ohio fiftyplusone.news/averages
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 10/08/2026
👀 👀 👀
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 10/08/2026
FiftyPlusOne is very excited to release our polling averages for Senate and governor elections today! There's a new page on the website just for general election averages, and a blog post with some takeaways on the current state of the race here: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/general-el...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
DDHQ spoke w/ @fiftyplusone.news's Primary Project about which groups have been successful in 2026. It can be hard to register how well groups like AIPAC have done — not always clear who they support, though they may oppose someone, like Tom Malinowski in February #NJ11 special.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 07/08/2026
New: Affordability concerns are even higher now than in the run-up to the 2024 elections. We check in on how people are feeling about inflation and the president's standing on the issue. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/affordabil...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Affordability concerns are even more important than in 2024
Inflation continues to dominate the issue landscape, and drag down the president
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The Captain @thoreau.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I think armchair political pundits have a tendency to treat polling as too much of a predictor. It is not a predictor. And there are real limitations. The aggregated averages are better to look at. I like @fiftyplusone.news. They do a good job.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 03/08/2026
FiftyPlusOne.news is delighted to announce that for the remainder of the 2026 election cycle, the remarkable and talented Cooper Burton will be working with us! Cooper is an incredible researcher and writer, and we're so happy to have him.
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Love the new @fiftyplusone.news midterms forecasts! fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house
fiftyplusone.news
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 03/08/2026
Good morning poll lovers! Big drop at FiftyPlusOne.news today: our 2026 midterm election forecast is now live! fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house
fiftyplusone.news
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
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Tia Yang @tsyang27.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Latest at @fiftyplusone.news: We built a dataset tracking every primary endorsement from Trump, progressive groups, party committees, women’s groups, and pro-Israel groups. Halfway through the season, here's who's winning. 🧵 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...
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Meredith Conroy @meredithconroy.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
New primary data @fiftyplusone.news confirms a pattern political scientists have flagged for years: Women with endorsements are winning primaries at high rates in both parties, but the opportunity structure around them is wildly unequal🧵 (full story here open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...)
open.substack.com
We tracked every candidate in the 2026 primaries. Here's who voters are nominating.
Our original dataset tracks endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race to reveal how party leaders and ideological groups are faring.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 31/07/2026
50+1 is very happy to publish this analysis of 2026 primary candidates from @meredithconroy.bsky.social @tsyang27.bsky.social & Cooper Burton, following the tradition of similar projects from FiveThirtyEight. What types of candidates are winning 2026 primaries? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
We tracked every candidate in the 2026 primaries. Here's who voters are nominating.
Our original dataset tracks endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race to reveal how party leaders and ideological groups are faring.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 29/07/2026
Donald Trump's net approval has reached a new low today in our tracker. His net approval sits at -24.1. The previous low was -23.7, achieved on May 27. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 24/07/2026
New: DSA candidates are winning primaries all around the country. But how popular is their platform with the American people? We dig in on key issues, including healthcare, Israel/Palestine, and criminal justice reform, to see how broad their appeal might be. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/how-popula...
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How popular are marquee DSA policies?
Views of progressive policies are mixed, with varying opinions on different elements of each proposal
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 17/07/2026
New: Trump's speech about election integrity was full of refuted claims. But Americans and political experts are worried about how our elections are conducted, and have concerns about our democracy. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...
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Americans are not confident in election integrity
Plus, polls about the World Cup, patriotism, and more.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 10/07/2026
Another Supreme Court term has come to a close, so for this week’s Trendline Cooper Burton takes a look at public opinion on 14 major decisions including consequential rulings on birthright citizenship, transgender athletes, and campaign finance law. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/major-supr...
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Major Supreme Court decisions this term are underwater with Americans
Plus, polls on Graham Platner, the World Cup, and more.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 07/07/2026
Just published: An early look at House and Senate general election polling averages, + a polling "nowcast" model that predicts results of the midterms if they were held today.* ** Polls suggest a D+7-8 national environment + easy House majority, toss-up Senate blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/new-fiftyp...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
New FiftyPlusOne polling nowcast: House and Senate polls reflect D+7-8 national environment
If the election were held today, polls of individual contests suggest Democrats would win the House majority and have even odds to take the Senate
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 26/06/2026
A recent poll found almost 70% of registered voters support birthright citizenship. Is that... true? This week on The Trendline, we look at how pollsters ask about this issue, and how it impacts the poll results. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/birthright...
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Birthright citizenship may be less popular than you think
Plus, polls about polls, and whether Americans think they could beat a chessmaster
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 25/06/2026
Democrats lead the U.S. House generic ballot among likely voters by 6 points, according to our average. Here we explain a little bit about how our average works (and why, if you're a poll sicko, you may have noticed the historical trend change this morning) blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/an-updated...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
An updated generic ballot polling average for the election cycle
Democrats lead the generic ballot among likely voters by 6 points, but by 5 among registered voters. How do we combine polls of both populations?
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 19/06/2026
New: All the polls we've seen so far about the new Iran deal. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/what-we-kn...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
What we know so far about American’s opinions on the Iran Deal
All the polls we’ve seen about Iran since the Memorandum of Understanding was announced.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 18/06/2026
Astonishing stat here from 50+1: Two-thirds of House members seeking a promotion to higher office have lost their primaries—a far higher rate than at any point since 1990. The roster includes seven Republicans and three Dems (plus one member of each party who bailed pre-primary).
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 18/06/2026
New: House members are losing their bids for higher office at a historically high rate. What's going on? We dive in, with data going back over 30 years. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/house-memb...
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House members keep losing their bids for higher office
This year’s primary features an unusually high percentage of competitive House members running for other offices, and their track record is not very good
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 10/06/2026
New: Are AI campaign ads actually helping campaigns? A look at how consultants are using these ads, and how they might actually backfire. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/ai-campaig...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
AI campaign ads are becoming more common
Campaign consultants are using AI, but some evidence suggests it might be counterproductive
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 09/06/2026
Our final polling average for today's GOP primary in #SCGov. If no candidate gets 50%+1, the race heads to a runoff on June 23.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 05/06/2026
New polling roundup: How Americans think about America 250 depends a lot on their party identity. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Americans are divided along party lines about America 250
Plus, polling on inflation, data centers, and Daylight Savings Time
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 02/06/2026
Our final polling average in the CA Governor race. Looks like a three-way jump ball for the top two spots. fiftyplusone.news/polls/govern...
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 28/05/2026
Dems now up to +6.5 on the @fiftyplusone.news average. Finally starting to pull away into the landslide territory that you would expect given Trump’s approval rating.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 27/05/2026
New: Despite consternation with party elites, Democratic voters are falling in line like never before. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/the-democr...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
The Democratic lead on the House generic ballot is now as large as it was in 2018
The Democratic Party may be in disarray, but Democratic voters are not
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 22/05/2026
After taking last week off for AAPOR, we're back with a fresh edition of The Trendline, taking a look at how Americans view Cuba, military intervention, and sanctions. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Americans want diplomacy with Cuba, not regime change
Plus, new polling about economic confidence, Democrats’ frustrations with their party, and aliens
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Meanwhile I haven't seen anyone mention that Change Research has *Dems leading* in FL Senate (+2) and Gov (+4). One poll, massive caveats, but we're talking Senate seat ~55 for Dems here. (via @fiftyplusone.news)
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Odd to do this now, when the #TXsen runoff has been, if anything, tightening, per the @fiftyplusone.news polling average. But this should sew things up for Paxton.
A line graph showing Ken Paxton's support sagging and John Cornyn's support holding steady.
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 18/05/2026
The Democratic lead in the U.S. House generic ballot for this November's midterms is now rounding to D+6 for the first time in our aggregate at 50+1 fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 11/05/2026
Hey poll lovers! FiftyPlusOne is quickly growing our list of subscribers to our polling data API as the midterms heat up.  Want to learn more about what we can offer you? Reach out to schedule a chat with us at AAPOR this week! data -at- fiftyplusone -dot- news
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 08/05/2026
Polls show Americans broadly favor age limits on members of Congress, Supreme Court justices, and the president: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/janet-mill...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Janet Mills's defeat in Maine isn't an outlier. Americans across the board want age limits in politics
Plus, new polling about Great Britain and gerrymandering after the Supreme Court’s Callais decision
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 07/05/2026
You’ve probably heard a lot about Democrats getting “locked out” of the California general election for governor this year. But my colleague at 50+1 Mary Radcliffe shows why this is equally or more likely to happen to Republicans: open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...
open.substack.com
Republicans could get “locked out” of the California gubernatorial primary
With several candidates within five points of a lead, neither party is safe
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 01/05/2026
New polling roundup: What do Americans think about federal spending? We take a look at voters' priorities, how they feel about the national debt, and more. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Americans want the government to spend more on social programs and less on the military
Plus, more young adults are saying they’re moving back in with Mom and Dad
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 30/04/2026
New: We've made some methodology tweaks to our polling averages to ensure they can appropriately respond to Big Shocks in campaigns. More here: substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
Making polling averages react to campaign events
A dispatch from the Methods Desk
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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 23/04/2026
Hello, new polling averages!
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