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Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf.bsky.social
118K followers 279 following 3.5K posts

Contributor @the-downballot.com. Elections, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.

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Reposted by Stephen Wolf
State Court Report @statecourtreport.org · 22h
Twenty-four states are holding elections for supreme court seats this November. @douglaskeith.bsky.social spotlights the supreme court races with the greatest potential to shape state high courts:
statecourtreport.org
State Supreme Court Elections to Watch This November
Judicial races will shape courts across the country and set up 2028 fights for majority control 2028 in Montana and North Carolina
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 18h
All it could take for the national popular vote compact to reach a majority of electoral votes is for Democrats to flip six legislative chambers across Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Electoral College cartogram showing which states are in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and which ones could join in time for it to activate by 2028. Each state is sized and labeled according to its number of electoral votes. The states are spaced out enough to accommodate the changes in size but retain their general shapes and relative positions on the map.

Current members are in solid orange, potential members are in light green, and nonmembers that are unlikely to join are in medium gray. Members have 222 electoral votes, potential members have 68, and the unlikely states have 248. The compact would only activate once states with at least 270 electoral votes have joined.

The seven potential members and their electoral vote are Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). Democrats would need to gain the governor's office and/or legislative chambers to win unified power in these states, as detailed in the spreadsheet linked in this post.
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Jay Willis @jaywillis.net · 22h
Wrote about the decline and fall of SCOTUSblog, which used to be the single best resource for Supreme Court stuff, and (thanks to some intervening crimes committed by its co-founder) is now a weird platform for conservative pundits to talk about what a good job the conservative justices are doing
slate.com
It Was the Essential Home of Supreme Court News. Now It’s a Joke. What Happened?
How high-stakes poker brought down a pillar of Supreme Court coverage.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in Montana
A key Supreme Court race—and a plan to protect judicial independence—are both on the ballot
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Missouri Republicans spent months trying to stop voters from getting to weigh in on ballot measures to block their new gerrymander and restrict the legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-backed ballot initiatives. They lost in court and have little time to put together actual campaigns.
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Alex Ip 葉清霖 @alexip718.com · 29/09/2026
A reminder that America cannot have a multiracial, multicultural democracy if the United States Supreme Court is allowed to continue to exist in its current form
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 23h
New poll finds Massachusetts voters passing the disastrous top-two “primary” 43-36, though that’s much than the 51-32 edge UMass Amherst found several weeks ago. In better news, this poll shows same-day voter registration passing 53-33
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This reversion was apparent last year in the NJ and VA state elections and CA’s prop 50. Reminds me of the VA GOP losing nearly all of its Clinton seats in 2017 after long outrunning the presidential results, foreshadowing the 2018 US House results where Dems beat 22/25 Republicans in Clinton seats
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Jen Fifield @jenafifield.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Exclusive: Earlier this month, the Supreme Court blocked an executive order restricting voting by mail in ways that could have thrown the upcoming midterms into chaos. But the White House originally had far more disruptive plans, @propublica.org has learned. 🧵
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Republicans re-gerrymandering Texas and other Southern legislatures in 2027 was already likely after they killed the Voting Rights Act and normalized mid-decade remaps. But Democrats could block it by winning for Texas House or governor, and a quorum break could block it in a 2026 lame duck session
Screenshot of a post on X by Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot), posted at 12:22 PM on Sep 28, 2026, with 4,292 views. The post reads: "Missed this over the weekend, but a Texas GOP state rep expressed interest in re-redistricting next year."

It quotes a Sep 25 post by Rob Laucius (@RobLauciusTX, verified), replying to @RobLauciusTX, @realmitchlittle, and 7 others. The quoted post reads: "Little says he has heard rumors of redistricting the Texas House and Senate. Leach says @GeneforTexas has expressed interest in doing so if Democrats win, says …" The quoted text is cut off at that point.
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Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I was explaining this at a political meeting last night. Stephen Miller has smartly decided to fly below the radar after the backlash to Minneapolis, Chicago, and other outrages. But by many measures things have gotten worse.
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Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
One note about this, because I was curious: remarkably, the state-level explanatory power of Google searches for testosterone and Trump vote survives controls for education, income, and rurality.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
After further reporting by @nataliaecm.bsky.social, we now know this error affected at least 200,000 should-be Texas voters. What a mess.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
#BREAKING: #SCOTUS once again freezes the lower federal courts’ rulings in the Missouri redistricting case—and affirms that, as the Missouri Supreme Court held earlier this month, Missouri will use the 2022 map in the November elections. There were no public dissents.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This was the 28th time #SCOTUS has granted emergency relief to the Trump administration since 1/20/25. That matches the total number of grants during the entirety of the first Trump administration. And both of those totals dwarf the *four* grants of relief (two each) during the Bush & Obama admins.
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Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Breaking: Supreme Court, over the Dissent of at Least the Three Democratic Appointed Justices, Allows States to Use Unreliable SAVE Database to Bulk Check Voter Citizenship Information (Now Updated with Analysis) electionlawblog.org/2026/breakin...
electionlawblog.org
Breaking: Supreme Court, over the Dissent of at Least the Three Democratic Appointed Justices, Allows States to Use Unreliable SAVE Database to Bulk Check Voter Citizenship Information (Now Updated wi...
You can find the opinion and dissent here. The Supreme Court, with at least the three liberal Justices dissenting, has allowed states to do queries to the federal “SAVE” database that contains informa...
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I chuckled when I saw they counted only the *first* season of True Detective to put it at #35
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A new Hart Research poll for supporters of an amendment that would let Democrats redraw Maryland’s congressional map in 2028 finds Question 3 passing 40-35. The Republican group opposing it recently released a poll from Ragnar Research and Lincoln Park Strategies showing it failing 41-28
thebanner.com
Second poll finds more supportive view of Maryland redistricting vote
The new poll shows 40% of likely voters would vote for an amendment to the state constitution that could make congressional gerrymandering easier. Another 35% were opposed, and 25% were not sure.
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Phil Lewis @phillewis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The nearly decade-long case of Crystal Mason, who was sentenced to 5 yrs in prison over a voting error, will end with an acquittal The wife of the current district attorney, who fought to keep her conviction in place, asked Crystal if she would consider voting for him
theguardian.com
Texas woman triumphs as court upholds acquittal in voting error case
Crystal Mason has spent nearly a decade fighting conviction for casting provisional ballot that ultimately wasn’t counted
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is a regular feature of data-matching, especially when done in a half-assed way. The purpose is to create the false claims of fraud. For example, Republicans complained for years about the risk of double voting. A credible system was built to detect it (ERIC). Then they killed it.
ERIC had been relatively uncontroversial since its creation. The idea behind it started in 2008, when election officials identified the potential for people to have multiple registrations in different states — in itself not surprising in a country that is at once highly mobile but operates a decentralized voting system — creating the potential for voting in different states. ERIC offered a tool that could track that problem, through a mixture of data sourcing and analytical tools that minimized false positives. By identifying moves and deaths, it allowed states to keep the voting rolls accurate. In 2013 it had seven members, which would increase to 32 states at its height.

Then in January of 2022, the Louisiana Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin dropped out of ERIC. He made his announcement to a group of far right election activists, to sustained applause. But for other election officials it was a puzzle. One state election official who worked for GOP secretaries of state said:

Everybody looked at this and said, 'This is insane, what are you talking about?' As soon as [Ardoin] did that — that created this pressure on the other Republican states that wasn't there before
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Incredible. First Secretary Mullin claimed that DHS had identified 15,903 noncitizens on Nevada’s voter roll. Then DHS officials told a skeptical Nevada, no no no, that’s just people we flagged. Here are the names of 185 people we KNOW aren’t citizens. All 185 were citizens. DHS got 100% wrong.
When the Department of Homeland Security sent Nevada a list of 185 names last month that it claimed identified noncitizens who had been improperly allowed to register to vote, state election officials got to work.
On Tuesday, the state sent a strongly worded rebuke to the federal government: Every single person on the list was a lawful citizen.
"As for the 185 individuals, our records indicate that they were citizens," Greg D. Ott, a deputy attorney general in Nevada, wrote, according to a copy of a letter sent to Department of Homeland Security officials obtained through open records requests.
"You have provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise."Following the meeting, Ms. Vogt sent a clarifying email to Nevada officials. "I also wanted to be sure I clarified that we did not reduce the 15,903 to 185," she wrote. "We've manually reviewed some of the 15,903 and confirmed 185 are not U.S. Citizens."
Now, Nevada officials are saying even that 185 number is wrong. They also took issue with a letter D.H.S. sent them in early September, in which the agency reiterated its initial claims about nearly 16,000 noncitizens on the rolls and pressured state officials to review each case in a letter to Nevada officials in early September.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Tens of thousands of voter registrations have gone unprocessed in Texas. Affecting large areas deeply. If you’re in Texas, check your registration is up to date and accurate ASAP. www.texastribune.org/2026/09/22/t...
texastribune.org
DPS voter registration applications weren’t sent to counties
Counties will start receiving a surge of applications less than two weeks before the Oct. 5 registration deadline, adding work at one of the busiest points in the election calendar.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 23/09/2026
These are still some of the most amazing graphs ever published in a political science book. From: Edward Tufte. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton University Press.
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)
Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
No president has ever gone into a midterm election as unpopular as Trump is today. Not even George W. Bush in 2006. Trump's net approval is twice as low as it was at this point in 2018. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/no-preside...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Democrats hit midterm high as Trump approval reaches new low
No president has gone into a midterm election this unpopular. Not even George W. Bush in 2006.
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Ari Berman @ariberman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
By destroying Voting Rights Act and gutting 14th & 15th amendments the Roberts Court is recycling legal arguments once used by Confederates and white supremacists to destroy Reconstruction Please read my deep dive w/ @pemalevy.bsky.social in @motherjones.com www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My latest @npr.org story: Registered voters are less confident that the U.S. Postal Service will deliver mail-in ballots on time compared to 2024, a NPR / @pbsnews.org / @maristpoll.bsky.social poll finds, after USPS was part of President Trump’s failed bid to limit mail voting for the midterms
npr.org
Poll: Trust in the U.S. Postal Service delivering mail-in ballots on time has fallen
Registered voters are less confident that USPS will deliver election mail on time compared with 2024, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds, after USPS was part of Trump's bid to limit mail voting.
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
We were pretty surprised to find such a clear relationship between primary vote margins and the House popular vote stretching across decades with such different political environments. But there's some years where one zigs and the other zags. What happened there? We'll start with 1966.
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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 22/09/2026
While we're all huffing hopium, here's a chart from my forthcoming @pspolisci.bsky.social article using data from @the-downballot.com. In the last three midterms, special election overperformance in swing districts closely tracked swing district overperformance in the general. Now look at 2026.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026
Oh yes, very much so. Dan's key insight was to plot the *change* in the national primary margin (from midterm to midterm) against the House vote. When you do that, something absolutely astonishing emerges. For the last *80* years, the two measures have closely tracked one another. Eight decades!
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026
In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.
the-downballot.com
Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate
There’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
My top 10 TV favorites of the 21st century. Pick your own (🎁 link): www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Screenshot of a New York Times "The 100 Best TV Shows of the 21st Century" page titled "My Top Shows," showing ten poster thumbnails on a light blue background. The shows listed are Avatar: The Last Airbender, The Legend of Korra, The Wire, Game of Thrones, Counterpart, Babylon Berlin, The Leftovers, Westworld, Chernobyl, and Treme.
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Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
CNN PANIC is setting in now that David Ellison will control the network in a matter of weeks: "People are anxious and worried... Unlike other mergers ... that we've been through, we have the preview of CBS, so it's not like people don't have a sense of what's coming." www.status.news/p/david-elli...
status.news
Ellison’s Bonta Blowout
David Ellison worked the phones over the weekend to secure a settlement for his Warners takeover—but the deal’s supposed safeguard for CNN is already drawing skepticism from inside the network as staf...
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 22/09/2026
NEW: In late 2024, FBI investigators had enough evidence to launch a sweeping bribery probe that could ensnare top lawmakers, including Sen. Susan Collins. Then Trump was reelected and eviscerated the FBI and DOJ teams handling public corruption probes.
propublica.org
The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins — Until Trump Got in the Way
After the FBI caught a defense contractor’s CEO making illegal campaign contributions, it sought to launch a sweeping political bribery probe involving Collins and others. Then the second Trump admini...
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Just to be as clear as possible, this is going to force the Supreme Court (or Justice Kavanaugh) to intervene *again.* But there’s every reason to think that the parties will seek that intervention (and #SCOTUS will provide it) fast enough to prevent this ruling from actually going into effect.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The Eighth Circuit has ordered the district court to reinstate Missouri’s 2025 congressional map. But before folks freak out, it also ordered that court to pause such a ruling for long enough that the challengers can (and will) seek further review from #SCOTUS: s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28...
To allow for appellate review, the district court should administratively stay its permanent injunction until September 28, 2026, at 5 p.m. Central Daylight Time. Without any stay, Secretary Hoskins and local election authorities would be required to immediately begin implementing the 2025 map before the Supreme Court receives or decides any appeal. And without a limit to the stay, PNP could wait to file its petition for a writ of certiorari until the December 21, 2026, due date, see
SUP. CT. R. 13.1, thus preventing the Supreme Court from considering the merits of this case until after Missouri has conducted the November 2026 general election. The mandate shall issue forthwith
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/09/2026
South Dakota’s Republican secretary of state, Monae Johnson, just endorsed the Democrat running to succeed her, Terrence Davis. Johnson lost the GOP nod at a party convention in June to Heather Baxter, a member of the state Freedom Caucus who wants to hand-count all ballots.
dakotawarcollege.com
A Personal Statement from Monae L Johnson, South Dakota Secretary of State: Why I Am Supporting Terrence Davis. (Guest Column)
A Personal Statement from Monae L. Johnson, South Dakota Secretary of State:  Why I Am Supporting Terrence Davis A personal statement on judgment, competen
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Rigging the Electoral College isn’t the goal of illegally excluding noncitizens—this map is a minor tradeoff for turbocharging gerrymandering 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 Texas, Florida, etc. Excluding noncitizens from redistricting would let the GOP pack more Dem votes into fewer seats—making the rest whiter & more GOP
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
NEW: Organizers in Montana and Missouri have faced years of attacks against popular initiatives. So they're going on the offense—they've qualified 2 measures for November that would amend their state constitutions and significantly strengthen direct democracy. Fascinating pro-voter maneuver:
boltsmag.org
To Protect Direct Democracy, Two States Are Mulling a New Approach: Name It As a Right - Bolts
After years of attacks on voters’ power to take matters into their own hands, democracy advocates are going on the offensive in Montana and Missouri. They’ve placed constitutional amendments on... Rea...
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Gillian Branstetter @gbbranstetter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Kansas Republican Party attempted to use a new state law requiring driver's license to only list sex at birth to invalidate the voter registration and candidacy of a transgender woman running against a Republican for a state House seat. They were rebuffed by the Secretary of State.
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Layla A. Jones @laylaayanna.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Census Bureau has ordered staff to halt all external events related to the 2030 Census amid the agency’s release of a controversial and unprecedented rule proposal, according to a copy of an email obtained by TPM. talkingpointsmemo.com/news/exclusi...
talkingpointsmemo.com
Exclusive: Census Bureau Directs Staff to Keep Quiet During Comment Period for Controversial New Rule
Leadership at the Census Bureau has ordered staff to halt all external...
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
It’s a long way from a 45-43 poll lead to actually winning a 57-41 Trump state, but this would be an earthquake if it happened. No one who voted in Kansas when it last elected a Democratic senator in 1932 is still alive today. No other states come close to that streak—the next-oldest date to 1970
docs.google.com
The last time a Democrat/a Republican was elected statewide in each state
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026
As @gregsargent.bsky.social discusses in this new piece looking at red House districts where MAGA Inc. is nonetheless spending money, the GOP *just* gerrymandered several of these seats. We've said that these would not be gimmes, and it looks like the GOP agrees. newrepublic.com/article/2155...
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
These are all crucial reforms, but I don’t think a Second Reconstruction is enough now—we need a new constitution. Only constitutional overhaul can eliminate the presidential system, Senate, and winner-take-all elections so one man or party can’t entrench themselves in power through minority rule
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Ben Raderstorf @raders.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
One in 10 Americans were forcibly moved to a new district in the gerrymandering wars. And it’s only going to get worse. @apnews.com story about our report on gerrymandering whiplash and why proportional representation is the only way out. @protectdemocracy.org apnews.com/article/redi...
apnews.com
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026
The USPS mail ballot saga took a lot of twists and turns over a very short timeframe, but @justinlevitt.bsky.social explains everything in careful detail on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Listen to learn why Trump's attempt to muck with mail voting completely collapsed -->
the-downballot.com
How the USPS’ mail ballot gambit got smacked down
Listen now (50 mins) | Justin Levitt tells us everything about Trump’s failed effort to muck with 2026
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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
It’s young (white) men. New study in @nature.com by @jatucker.bsky.social et al looks at the predictors of white nationalist attitudes across an array of survey data. 🔑 Findings: —5% of white adults hold such views —13.5% of white men age 18-29 —Political ideology matters but it’s not just that
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/09/2026
Everything's falling into place
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
If Democrats flipped Texas governor or the state House, they could block Republicans from passing more extreme new gerrymanders *next year*. The 2026 congressional map at least pretended to follow the Voting Rights Act, but a 2028 map wouldn’t have to
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Big John @dcbigjohn.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Today is the 152nd anniversary of the worst terrorist attack in New Orleans history, when 5,000 members of the Crescent City White League overthrew the Louisiana government in an armed assault that left at least 35 dead. The attack was a turning point in Reconstruction www.nola.com/gambit/comme...
nola.com
John Stanton: Marking the anniversary of the 1874 terrorist attack on New Orleans
Sept. 14 marks the 152nd anniversary of the terrorist attack on New Orleans by the Crescent City White League, the white nationalist organization made up of former Confederate soldiers and led by weal...
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