iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 4h

lol, this is not incorrect, but the real question, as always, is "trust it to do what" have realistic expectations for your data and you'll get more out of it!

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 5h

There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...

AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

lmao, but also 3/5 sports and entertainment feels like it's probably a decent sign for This Site (also I am not finding out what the anime drama is and you can't make me)

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

(dabbing wine droplets out of the cup) frogs wild animals differential nonresponse

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

at least they've stopped polling horserace

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

true, the cost of grandmas these days is unbelievable (via www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...)

Screenshot of an article. The screenshot reads: “People don’t always understand what the fight really is. They think, ‘Oh, they’ll take my guns away,’” he said. Instead, he has been encouraging union members to think about the “three Gs” of affordability — gas, groceries and Grandma. “It’s more about: ‘What’s your paycheck? What’s your gas?’” he said.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

experiencing this as a gift to me personally, much as I consider cold gusts of wind to be a targeted attack

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

my sole contribution to the Discourse is that any state-level outlet not branding their midterm coverage as "Choosin' [STATE]" is missing a trick here

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

[extremely butterfly meme voice] is this a "house effect"

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

background on cold pizza: www.nytimes.com/1998/07/23/w... (article also includes the phrase "The tempest in the tomato sauce")

Cold pizza has become a hot topic in the race that will decide who becomes the next Prime Minister of Japan.

It started when John F. Neuffer, a political analyst often quoted by the foreign news media here, described the front-runner, Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, as having ''all the pizazz of a cold pizza.'' Since then pizza jokes have abounded and pizza has had top billing in the Japanese press.

The Foreign Ministry, however, fails to see the humor.

''Unfortunately, Mr. Neuffer's 'cold pizza' is now too famous,'' said Mikie Kiyoi, director of the ministry's international press division. ''Of course, anyone can say what they want, but to have one country's prime ministerial candidate described as such is, well, sad.''

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

one of the fun things about digging up older surveys is that you get a lot of practice with the game of "am I more offended by the underlying question or the choice of scale"

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

could somebody check the thermostat for Outside, it keeps being not warm enough

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

can we take a moment here to appreciate the headline and author blurb (remy is correct)

Sunkist, Sunset: Fruit Gems, a Century-Old Candy, Are Discontinued

By Remy Tumin
Remy Tumin has always preferred grapefruit-flavor Sunkist Fruit Gems.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Honestly feels not implausible as the corollary to "presidents get more popular after leaving office, but usually they're not then running again"

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

i'm pretty sure that, as an early 20-something, I once soured the end of a lunch interview by wrapping up the remainder of my turkey sandwich and shoving it into my very nicest purse, but also I have no regrets about doing this because it was a great sandwich

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Re: Trump approval as a seemingly one-way ratchet this term:

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Tessa Duvall @tessaduvall.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

An editor’s farewell to Bluegrass Politics:

What I remember is how many journalists were packed into the Capitol, either outside of the Secretary of State’s office or waiting in the rotunda. One reporter even brought a folding camp chair. I was there with my colleagues and competition alike and felt such a sense of camaraderie.

Statehouse press corps across America are not as robust as they were in years past. That’s true in Kentucky, too.

But on that Friday afternoon, local journalism felt so alive. I wish more days in Frankfort had that kind of buzz because the halls of power need a vibrant Fourth Estate to provide a watchful eye — every day, not just when there’s the potential for drama.

I will always believe in the importance of local news.

You still need to read John Cheves, who is tireless in his work holding elected leaders and government officials accountable. You still need to read Taylor Six, an incredibly talented criminal justice reporter who is always finding an interesting cases to cover. You still need to read Beth Musgrave, who can do it all, whether that’s grilling UK leaders over secretive travel or monitoring ICE’s impact in the commonwealth. And of course, there is nowhere better to get your Wildcats coverage than the Herald-Leader.

Thank you for sharing your stories with me. Thank you for giving me your trust.

Thank you for following along, and please, don’t let this be the last Bluegrass Politics you read.

Tessa Duvall
Politics and Public Affairs Editor

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It's game day for the Congressional Women's Softball Game! Will Team Congress or the Bad News Babes take home the W? I've got full stats here: www.tinyurl.com/cwsgstats

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

New polling! We can get so inured to the current political landscape that it's worth remembering that, while Trump was also unpopular in 2018, the economic backdrop looked *very* different www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/p...

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

isn't it too early for Halloween stories

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

now that's what I call a high-steaks operation

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I mean I just was writing that whether majority opinion yields matching policy outcomes is actually the wrong test of democracy...but that doesn't mean that we should avoid knowing what people think about stuff!

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

counterpoint: it's actually good to have a systematic way of understanding what and how Americans think about politics and society outside of the periodic and limited datapoints provided by election results

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

STOP QUOTE TWEETING THE POLL ACCOUNTS THAT NEVER LINK BACK TO THE POLLS THEY'RE MENTIONING thank you

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Michael S. Pollard @sociologian.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Welcome to the first day of Fall. Did you know that a 2021 poll found that 12% of US adults said that they had tried a pumpkin spice latte, but "will not drink it again"? Sadly I couldn't find a more current update. h/t to @aedwardslevy.bsky.social www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-p...

ipsos.com

One in five Americans enjoy drinking Pumpkin Spice Lattes

Midwesterners are most excited to decorate their houses for Halloween

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

every generation gets the Horse_ebooks it deserves

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Roper is also a great resource for putting broader historical context on modern polling!

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

it is very weird to have developed a visceral reaction to a stock photo of a water tower

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Yair Rosenberg @yair-rosenberg.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Just one of the remarkable stories from this piece:

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

love to prepare for my holidays through intense hydration

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Colin Brown @colinmbrown.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

A hot toddy where you slowly heat the ingredients until it's entirely vaporized. It's a reduction ad absurdam

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Precisely the issue with these questions! Most people will not actually try to reason through a probabilistic answer, which makes it really difficult to interpret either way

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

has anyone done an apple juice and irish cream cocktail called a mott's and bailey's

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

I wish political commentators to be more clear in distinguishing "why do people vote for X?" and "What campaign tactic / message / etc has the largest marginal effect on changes in votes for X?"

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

literally just told a roomful of college students writing a poll that if the one thing I could teach them was not to use this question format, I would feel successful

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

today in wikipedia section headers en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_B...

Early life
Criminal career
Final days
Verses
List of crimes
Bestowal

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

by far the dumbest thing I have learned about myself recently is that trying to use Cursor gives me social anxiety

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

almost as disappointing as America's Next Top Model

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

ATR fails the "is there any person's name on the website" test, fwiw

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Very excited to visit the Happiest Place on Earth, by which I of course mean the @ropercenter.bsky.social polling archives

A very happy nerd stands amid stacks of boxes filled with polls

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

the funny thing about metro putting "points of interest" for stations on its train signage is how pointed it looks for stops where there's nothing listed

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Emily Guskin @emgusk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Would also like to share AAPOR's Election Polling Resources page, which we've cleaned up a bit recently aapor.org/election-pol...

aapor.org

Election Polling Resources - AAPOR

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

resources that are better than screenshotting a post made by "InteractivePolls at X dot com" and sharing that with your followers: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi... www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Un... just posting the big shrug emoji

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