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Amanda Weiss

@amandaweiss.bsky.social
1.5K followers 512 following 393 posts

Assistant Professor, Cornell Department of Government. Quant methods, causal inference, research ethics, and criminal justice policy. www.amandakweiss.com Opinions my own, reposts not (necessarily) endorsements, etc.

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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I want to make a joke about why anyone would choose to be a sprinter when clearly that's not our species comparative advantage, but uh... I'm en route to Louisiana for my dad's track meet and his primary event is the 200-meter.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I was just canvassed about turning out to vote!!! Love this for me. In fact, I may have been more enthusiastic about the conversation than the volunteer from the NYS Dems...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social's handle did not link properly, but huge shout-out to the best coauthor ever :)
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇
Abstract for the paper "The Electoral Effects of U.S. Prison Construction" by Ottone & Weiss: From 1980 to 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons, a rapid expansion of carceral capacity mirroring the punitive turn in public policy and public opinion. Yet few studies have examined the impact of prison construction on nearby residents and their political behavior. We develop a theoretical model tracing how prison openings affect economic, attitudinal, and electoral outcomes in surrounding communities. Us- ing modern difference-in-difference methods and a novel county-level dataset covering forty years of prison openings, we find that prison construction decreases county-level vote share for Republican candidates, especially if Republicans represented the county during prison construction. Drawing on analyses of economic outcomes and prison bond measure support, we argue that voters sanction issue-owning Republican candi- dates for negative economic externalities and turn against funding for prisons. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about the political economy of prisons and have implications for how we understand contemporary expansions of carceral capacity.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Did @bsky.app introduce the thread length counter so that we could all see just how many ways @kevinmkruse.bsky.social had found to roast His Man?
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I feel like my Bluesky content is very anti-AI. I am actually not globally opposed to AI! Just sometimes people adopt a new method and forget that new methods create new problems. (You know. Like when we all got excited about modern DID point estimation and forgot to think about inference.)
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Yet another reason to be REALLY, REALLY CAREFUL about using AI to label and analyze qualitative data.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
This is, in fact, a real email that we received.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Okay, for context, the dog is very entertaining. I too have to resist being entertained when such a big noise emerges from such a small creature. But still. Deer are not supposed to be entertained by nominal predators.
Small dog standing next to a coffee table, a sofa, and a chew toy.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
I am from Indiana, which has a lot of deer. Upstate NY deer are on a whole different level. I was walking the dog and we saw a deer. The dog started barking at the deer. And the deer CAME CLOSER. I think it was ENTERTAINED. And, sure, the dog is not very scary. But the deer is a WILD ANIMAL.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
So this is an example of why I am skeptical of AI for peer review. It's like improv where the answer is always "Yes, and..." Chat responses are - beyond just being positive(!) - natively structured by existing claims.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
We *are* quite delightful. But actually though - lovely faculty community, great students, gorgeous gorges... What more could any prospective assistant professor of public law want? academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/32519
static.klipy.com
Moira Rose: Won't You Join Me? (Schitt's Creek)
ALT: Moira Rose: Won't You Join Me? (Schitt's Creek)
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
You know, I always thought that I was a Reviewer No. 1... But my last two reviews were each like 5 pages single-spaced (I *am* now on the record saying I like reviewing 😬). I'm starting to worry that I am Reviewer No. 2.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Ofc I say this and personally put WAY too much effort into reviews. And then I die inside when my papers spend six months under review or get torpedoed because someone was not on board with my type of paper existing or are evaluated by someone who doesn't know how math works. So there's that...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Optimist: The cup is half full. Pessimist: The cup is half-empty. Political methodologist: The cup is the convex hull of the treated group's covariate values.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
As a practicing political methodologist, I maintain a list of well-identified causes of Republican electoral success. The list includes: * Racist backlash. * Eating chips rather than Cheez-Its at your election night watch party. * David Froomkin predicting a Democratic landslide.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
This exactly. In fully-automated luxury gay space communism, you will be able to *choose* between making spreadsheets with your artist commune polycule and being down bad in your castle.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Also I'm SO PUMPED to be a non-presenting coauthor. 🙏 I like the sound of my voice as much as the next academic, but I did 5 conference presentations on other papers earlier this summer and I am now in my couch potato era. Until APSA.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I'm so proud of this paper that @nottone.bsky.social and I did on prisons... massive data collection! the political economy of criminal legal system! jackknife standard errors!
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Reposted by Amanda Weiss
Nick Ottone @nottone.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I’m looking forward to presenting really exciting work (co-authored w/ @amandaweiss.bsky.social) and learn about other great work at @cape-team.bsky.social Annual Research Conference — mine’s tomorrow, 1:30pm ET It’s virtual and everyone is welcome — register here: yale.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
yale.zoom.us
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: The 2026 APE Research Conference . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
To register for the 2026 APE Annual Research Conference, please complete the form below. You will receive a unique link which you will use to log in for the duration of the conference. The first day...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The Overton window has always struck me as conceptually under-determined. But how else to describe elite movement on court packing? In fact, court packing has made me shift my Overton window on the Overton window.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Right back at you ❤️@dfroomkin.bsky.social
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
I'm lucky to have such an accomplished coauthor. 😉😊 Congratulations @nottone.bsky.social!!!!
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Hell yeah! Though after spending 5 minutes explaining what a blue book is to my students, I discovered that Cornell's blue books are custom-branded and actually white...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
I'm a quant methods professor and a millennial, I need someone to save me from myself.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Y'ALL I was reading up on the history of the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, which is already wild. Then I discovered that THIS is how young Evelyn became Mrs. Kitagawa (even before becoming Dr. Kitagawa).
Wikipedia screenshot of a biography of Evelyn Kitagawa, which reads: "She was born as Evelyn Mae Rose, in 1920[4] in Hanford, California, to a family of Portuguese Catholic descent. After earning a bachelor's degree in mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley in 1941, she began working for the War Relocation Authority, which ran the internment camps of Japanese-Americans during World War II, as head of its statistics unit. In one of the camps, she met her future husband, Joseph Mitsuo Kitagawa, who had come to the US in 1941 as a divinity student and became an Episcopalian minister while interned. After marrying him, her family disowned her and she lost contact with them."
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
This is a highly specific response and I'm cackling. Also I'm amazed that one of Edith Wharton's non-Age of Innocence works was assigned in the course of anyone's schooling...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
I had a lot of fun the other day giving a workshop on the modern DID revolution at Syracuse University's Maxwell School — thank you @adam42smith.bsky.social for hosting! I have posted the slides to my website at amandakweiss.com/did if anyone is interested.
amandakweiss.com
DID Workshop Resources — Amanda Weiss
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
I made an over-engineered Qualtrics survey to handle my wedding RSVPs (name look-up, custom font packs, etc.) Now I'm like, Should I think of a survey experiment to run on family and friends?!
Screenshot of a Qualtrics survey collecting RSVPs for a wedding.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
I just found out, via reviewer request, about AJPS' new submissions stream for reanalyses. I'm intrigued. Philosophers have written about creating groups of dedicated replication scientists (see, e.g., work by Felipe Romero) and I've wondered about how that model would work in poli sci.
Screenshot of a post from the American Journal of Political Science Editors-in-Chief, reading: "This post describes new policies at AJPS regarding Correspondence and Corrections.

Maintaining an accurate scholarly record is one of the most important responsibilities of a journal. When findings published in AJPS contain significant errors, the discipline is best served when those errors are identified, evaluated, and addressed publicly.

Until now, AJPS has not had a dedicated channel for publishing critical reanalyses by scholars other than the original authors. We are introducing one.

AJPS will now publish short critical essays called “Correspondence” in which scholars who are not the original authors challenge the central claims of a previously published AJPS"
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Reposted by Amanda Weiss
Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
i've decided not to listen to the audio of a teacher reporting a kindergartender because frankly I don't want to become the person that that event would turn me into. but one thing I hope we are collectively coming to grips with is what it meant that we have lived among such people this whole time
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
As a newly-minted BA, I got a job offer to tutor the child of a billionaire and his wife. (Which I turned down. In the interview, the wife asked if I was Jewish, then said "but you look Asian!" She also told me that my hourly rate was too high.) That couple has been in every Epstein files wave.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
It seems like an expression of privilege, naivete, or inhumanity to say that COVID mitigation was not worth it. Lockdowns have consequences and implementation sucked. I'm teaching that generation now. But also - more than 1 million Americans died.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
Designing survey recruitment materials right now and I feel like a walking/talking "Graphic Design Is My Passion" meme...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Ahem. Political science is the *best* science. In all seriousness: Political scientists use the scientific method. And it's not like the political world is mystical/made-up. Assuming a closed physical universe, human behavior has some explanation - it's just hard to identify.* *In all senses
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
I just learned that Cornell Govt grad students will lead a jeopardy game, featuring faculty trivia, at the end-of-semester party. Learning this is how I also learned that Yale Poli Sci was probably unusual for having a student-written skit full-on *roasting* faculty at the department party...
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Cool post! IMO the point recalls the effects-of-causes/ causes-of-effects debate. E.g., some real-world RCTs do not aim to test a scalable intervention, but instead to test a theorized causal relationship. These studies are causal, but they seem distinct from the credibility revolution idea.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
This is an absolute crisis time for quantitative research on opinion and pol behavior. If online survey pools are wrecked, the big surveys like the ANES are losing NSF funding, and the quality/availability of administrative datasets is falling off... well, that's a lot of the field.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
@maxkagan.bsky.social I just dug into the politicsatwork.org site and it's so cool! Political scientists have been letting sociologists dominate workplace research for far too long...
politicsatwork.org
Politics at Work
Explore workplace partisanship and turnout across employers and metros.
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Reposted by Amanda Weiss
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.
Screenshot of a Politico article. At the top, the Politico logo appears in red. Below it is a photo showing House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaking to reporters in a hallway, raising one finger while surrounded by microphones and journalists. The headline reads: “Jeffries backs Schumer amid fierce Democratic backlash to shutdown deal.” A timestamp says “41 mins ago.” The subheadline quotes Jeffries saying “Yes and yes,” in response to whether Schumer was effective and should keep his job.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
I am pleased to fail to reject the null.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Just realized, while prepping slides for tomorrow, that at least 80% of this observational causal inference course is me pointing at a graph and going "This... is bad."
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
My parents recently got a kitten (very exciting!) Each of them is spelling the kitten's name a different way. The kitten has been home for 2 weeks and I am *so curious* to see whose spelling wins.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
@dfroomkin.bsky.social Is your book in need of an epigraph?
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
This is such a weird side effect of de-stigmatizing federal benefits. We want to normalize folks using an EBT card to access CalFresh. But we kind of need folks to be policy demanders for their welfare programs.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
The fact that Medicaid expansion is The No. 1 Diff-in-Diff really blinded me to how little attention Medicaid expansion actually gets.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
One of my students who went home for fall break brought back local candies for me as a present. I'm staunchly opposed to clientelism but also 🥹🥹🥹
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
The real reason we can't shrink PhD cohorts. Gotta keep the husbands of doctors/lawyers/executives/etc. busy somehow.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
I would be all about a grout robot. But to this day, my parents like to lecture about how something is lost when we don't do our own cleaning & driveway repairs (big Midwest energy!) And I think that's why AI skepticism is rare. Different people want to eliminate different kinds of labor.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
I wonder if these types of labels serve as an information treatment for Americans. In general, economic voting does not depend on accurate blame attributions - just people taking out grumpiness on incumbents. But does anything change if Trump voters connect higher prices to tariffs?
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