Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 3hFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August; Up 2.2% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 18.2% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 15.8%, Cape Coral Down 14.6% calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...calculatedrisk.substack.comFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August; Up 2.2% Year-over-yearPunta Gorda House Prices Down 18.2% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 15.8%, Cape Coral Down 14.6% 081
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6h"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent." Inflation at expectations (before most recent increase in oil and gas prices) 0111
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6h"Personal income increased $66.6 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August ... and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $190.8 billion (0.9 percent)." Income well below consensus. Spending at expectations 1101
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6hGDP revised up to 2.2% in Q2. "Real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending." 081
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7hHigh Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Down 14% YoY; Single Family Inventory Increases calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...calculatedrisk.substack.comHigh Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Down 14% YoY; Single Family Inventory IncreasesHere are two pieces of weekly data that I follow. 040
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7hMBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Down 14% YoY! 072
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Daily pain for mortgage rates ... 7.58% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 1266
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026People are not confident about the economy ... www.conference-board.org/topics/consu... "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August." Well below consensus of 89. 1103
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026JOLTS: "The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires changed little at 5.2 million, while total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million." 0111
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in July FHFA House Prices Up 2.6% Year-over-year in July calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...calculatedrisk.substack.comCase-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in JulyFHFA House Prices Up 2.6% Year-over-year in July 070
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Mortgage Investment Portfolios Down Again, Agency MBS Holdings Little Changed in August; Interest Rate Risk Measures Mixed calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...calculatedrisk.substack.comLawler: Update on the GSEs: Mortgage Investment Portfolios Down Again, Agency MBS Holdings Little Changed in August; Interest Rate Risk Measures MixedFrom housing economist Tom Lawler: 070
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 28/09/20267.5% 30 Year fixed. Ouch! www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 2447
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rates Increased Slightly in August Freddie Mac Multi-Family Delinquencies at Highest Rate since Financial Crisis calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and...calculatedrisk.substack.comFannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rates Increased Slightly in AugustFreddie Mac Multi-Family Delinquencies at Highest Rate since Financial Crisis 080
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 25/09/202630-Year fixed mortgage rates at 7.49%. Other than the brief surge in 2023, this is the highest since 2000. 1268
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Economic Weekly September 25, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...economicweekly.substack.comEconomic Weekly September 25, 2026This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic. 080
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026New Home Sales Increase to 684,000 Annual Rate in August Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...calculatedrisk.substack.comNew Home Sales Increase to 684,000 Annual Rate in AugustMedian New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix 2134
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 196,000 to 198,000." Lower than expected. 0111
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/202630-year mortgage rate at 7.26% highest since May 2024 (I think) www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 0203
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak, Single Family Inventory Increases calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...calculatedrisk.substack.comHigh Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak, Single Family Inventory IncreasesHere are two pieces of weekly data that I follow. 071
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026“Architecture firm billings continued to decline in August” Multi-family billings negative for 47 of last 49 months calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/architectu...calculatedrisk.substack.com“Architecture firm billings continued to decline in August”Multi-family billings negative for 47 of last 49 months 092
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Weak demand. 070
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Goldman “We now expect the FOMC to deliver a second 25bp hike in October. We think consecutive hikes are most natural because the FOMC presented the hike as supporting “a timelier return” to 2% inflation.” This is a change in their outlook. 1406
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/202630-year mortgage rates at 7.19% will impact closings in 30 to 60 days. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 02910
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd... Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler (and is free to read). Lawler has been pointing out that the GSEs’ holdings of Agency MBS have been declining and that the GSEs have taken on more risks.calculatedrisk.substack.comLawler: Update on MBS Yields and SpreadsFrom housing economist Tom Lawler: 0161
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...calculatedrisk.substack.comPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales. 0110
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Economic Weekly September 18, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...economicweekly.substack.comEconomic Weekly September 18, 2026This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic. 0101
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...calculatedrisk.substack.comPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026This 2-part overview for mid-September provides a snapshot of the current housing market. 090
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Gasoline $4.46 per gallon, National average (war peak was $4.56). Getting close (diesel at record high). www.gasbuddy.com/charts 0183
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Pending Home Sales: www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar... "Month-Over-Month 0.3% increase in pending home sales Gains in the South and West; declines in the Northeast and Midwest Year-Over-Year 4.7% decrease in pending home sales Declines in all four regions" Slightly below consensus. WEAK. 0163
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Housing Starts Decreased to 1.275 million Annual Rate in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...calculatedrisk.substack.comHousing Starts Decreased to 1.275 million Annual Rate in AugustFrom the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions 0103
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026"In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 196,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 206,000." Lower than expected 0120
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Diesel at record prices www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga... that will spill through to other prices. 0205
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Mortgage rates moved higher to end the day 7.24% 30-year fixed www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 0257
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/202630-year rates down slightly www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 1201
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026As expected "The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate." 0100
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak Builder Confidence Falls Further calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...calculatedrisk.substack.comHigh Frequency Data: Purchase Applications WeakBuilder Confidence Falls Further 150
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Builder Sentiment Falls on Higher Interest Rates and Costs www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 32 in September, according to the NAHB Below consensus 1191
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Retail Sales: "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent from the previous month" Above estimate of 0.9% increase. 0100
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026National Average Gasoline = $4.35, war peak was $4.56 www.gasbuddy.com/charts 918344
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 15/09/202630-year mortgage rates 7.22% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 0205
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026WTI $106 per barrel. Getting close to war highs www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1 1182
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/20267.17% 30-year fixed mortgage www.mortgagenewsdaily.com 0407
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...calculatedrisk.substack.comLawler: Update on MBS Yields and SpreadsFrom housing economist Tom Lawler: 051
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026The "Home ATM" Slightly Open in Q2 Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Positive in Q2 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...calculatedrisk.substack.comThe "Home ATM" Slightly Open in Q2Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Positive in Q2 050
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Goldman: "We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week ... Additional hikes at later meetings are possible but are not our baseline. ... We continue to think that all of the overshoot of the 2% target can be attributed to one-time factors whose impact is likely to fade" 1153