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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
57K followers 318 following 3.2K posts

Author of Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter at calculatedrisk.substack.com and Economic Weekly at economicweekly.substack.com

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 3h
Freddie Mac HPI. 30 largest price declines ...
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 3h
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August; Up 2.2% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 18.2% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 15.8%, Cape Coral Down 14.6% calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August; Up 2.2% Year-over-year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 18.2% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 15.8%, Cape Coral Down 14.6%
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6h
"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent." Inflation at expectations (before most recent increase in oil and gas prices)
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6h
"Personal income increased $66.6 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August ... and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $190.8 billion (0.9 percent)." Income well below consensus. Spending at expectations
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6h
GDP revised up to 2.2% in Q2. "Real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending."
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7h
High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Down 14% YoY; Single Family Inventory Increases calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Down 14% YoY; Single Family Inventory Increases
Here are two pieces of weekly data that I follow.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7h
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Down 14% YoY!
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Daily pain for mortgage rates ... 7.58% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
People are not confident about the economy ... www.conference-board.org/topics/consu... "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August." Well below consensus of 89.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
JOLTS: "The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires changed little at 5.2 million, while total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million."
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in July FHFA House Prices Up 2.6% Year-over-year in July calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in July
FHFA House Prices Up 2.6% Year-over-year in July
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Mortgage Investment Portfolios Down Again, Agency MBS Holdings Little Changed in August; Interest Rate Risk Measures Mixed calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Mortgage Investment Portfolios Down Again, Agency MBS Holdings Little Changed in August; Interest Rate Risk Measures Mixed
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
7.5% 30 Year fixed. Ouch! www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rates Increased Slightly in August Freddie Mac Multi-Family Delinquencies at Highest Rate since Financial Crisis calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rates Increased Slightly in August
Freddie Mac Multi-Family Delinquencies at Highest Rate since Financial Crisis
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
30-Year fixed mortgage rates at 7.49%. Other than the brief surge in 2023, this is the highest since 2000.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Economic Weekly September 25, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
economicweekly.substack.com
Economic Weekly September 25, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
End of day 7.45% 30 year fixed.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New Home Sales Increase to 684,000 Annual Rate in August Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
New Home Sales Increase to 684,000 Annual Rate in August
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Unemployment Claims: "In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 196,000 to 198,000." Lower than expected.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
30-year mortgage rate at 7.26% highest since May 2024 (I think) www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak, Single Family Inventory Increases calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak, Single Family Inventory Increases
Here are two pieces of weekly data that I follow.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
“Architecture firm billings continued to decline in August” Multi-family billings negative for 47 of last 49 months calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/architectu...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
“Architecture firm billings continued to decline in August”
Multi-family billings negative for 47 of last 49 months
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago." Weak demand.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Goldman “We now expect the FOMC to deliver a second 25bp hike in October. We think consecutive hikes are most natural because the FOMC presented the hike as supporting “a timelier return” to 2% inflation.” This is a change in their outlook.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
30-year mortgage rates at 7.19% will impact closings in 30 to 60 days. www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd... Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler (and is free to read). Lawler has been pointing out that the GSEs’ holdings of Agency MBS have been declining and that the GSEs have taken on more risks.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026
On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 I reviewed home inventory and sales.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Economic Weekly September 18, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
economicweekly.substack.com
Economic Weekly September 18, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2026
This 2-part overview for mid-September provides a snapshot of the current housing market.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Gasoline $4.46 per gallon, National average (war peak was $4.56). Getting close (diesel at record high). www.gasbuddy.com/charts
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Pending Home Sales: www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar... "Month-Over-Month 0.3% increase in pending home sales Gains in the South and West; declines in the Northeast and Midwest Year-Over-Year 4.7% decrease in pending home sales Declines in all four regions" Slightly below consensus. WEAK.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.275 million Annual Rate in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.275 million Annual Rate in August
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 196,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 206,000." Lower than expected
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Diesel at record prices www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga... that will spill through to other prices.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Mortgage rates moved higher to end the day 7.24% 30-year fixed www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
30-year rates down slightly www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
FOMC Projections
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
As expected "The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate."
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak Builder Confidence Falls Further calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
High Frequency Data: Purchase Applications Weak
Builder Confidence Falls Further
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
All current policy is bad for housing ...
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Builder Sentiment Falls on Higher Interest Rates and Costs www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 32 in September, according to the NAHB Below consensus
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Retail Sales: "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $773.9 billion, up 1.2 percent from the previous month" Above estimate of 0.9% increase.
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
National Average Gasoline = $4.35, war peak was $4.56 www.gasbuddy.com/charts
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
30-year mortgage rates 7.22% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
WTI $106 per barrel. Getting close to war highs www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
7.17% 30-year fixed mortgage www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The "Home ATM" Slightly Open in Q2 Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Positive in Q2 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com
The "Home ATM" Slightly Open in Q2
Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Positive in Q2
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Goldman: "We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week ... Additional hikes at later meetings are possible but are not our baseline. ... We continue to think that all of the overshoot of the 2% target can be attributed to one-time factors whose impact is likely to fade"
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