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peark.es

@peark.es
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 1h
Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.
September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield






Term Premium







-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.
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David W (aka Flex NP) @rnflex.bsky.social · 3h
Finally it reduces hepatic insulin resistance so far that I'm not sure it can go much lower. A 55-60% reduction in fasting insulin. Also it raised Cystatin-C based GFR by 6-10ml/min. Legit a medical miracle/fix it all/Mary Sue ass drug as @proptermalone.bsky.social would say.
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David W (aka Flex NP) @rnflex.bsky.social · 3h
Full Retatrutide phase 3 obesity data published today. It's gonna take a minute to fill dissect this. The appendix alone has 70 pages of data. Long story short we created a drug that's almost too good. Huge chunks of people stopped or reduced doses from excess weight reductions.
nejm.org
Retatrutide, a Triple Hormone Receptor Agonist, for Treatment of Obesity | NEJM
Retatrutide is a triple-receptor agonist of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, glucagon-like peptide-1, and glucagon receptors. In this phase 3, randomized, double-blind trial, we assign...
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Snitty @clofsnitville.bsky.social · 6h
The thing I listened to that was a lot of fun that was not Senate hearings was the latest @normal-men.bsky.social featuring the delightful @musicologyduck.bsky.social talking about Trump's playlist and running playlists. Now that was a treat!
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TW @twesq.bsky.social · 3h
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 4h
Finished a project today: a regularly-updated G10 macro monitor covering central banks across the US, Eurozone, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. One-shot update with Python, which delights me. media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026...
Information dense screenshot of US macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.Information dense screenshot of Eurozone macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.Information dense screenshot of Japan macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 5h
the voters of Texas yearn to compete with Alaska in the race to sell LNG...in Nebraska they're saying "please, just some Alaskan LNG exports...it's all we need" while Mainers are cheering at the news of a new megaproject. *TRUMP TO UNVEIL $54 BILLION ALASKA LNG PLAN AMID MIDTERM WOES
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 6h
I have...no earthly idea what this means *TRUMP: AI FIRMS VIEW DOCUMENT AS A SEPARATE CONSTITUTION
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Stephen Judkins @stephenjudkins.bsky.social · 7h
Absolutely this. Also the bizarre implication that Democrats could have just designed Trump-proof or SCOTUS-proof laws or institutions, like if they had "codified Roe v Wade". It doesn't work like that! If you can build it, someone else can tear it down!
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sleepynaut @grovewalker.bsky.social · 12h
photo of werner herzog with a speech bubble added so that it looks like he is saying the quoted post
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 7h
"Doubts" they say. "Doubts".
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ashley (ravens 2-1) 🌹 @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 7h
Rodneyse is shakened
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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 8h
Incredible, Democrats have officially hit a 10 point lead on the generic ballot
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 7h
Dems need to win PA by around 9 points to flip its Senate (~D+11 nationally). In that situation, they likely also take the state legislatures of WI, MI, AZ and NV Gov. Dems would have the votes to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact over the line and eliminate the Electoral College.
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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Here are some extracts that give you a flavour of the authors interpretation: the young lost out to the olds in the cohort dynamics. This is basically true! As true in the workforce as it has been in politics.
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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Of course you can argue this is good but I am merely here to tell you that the huge relative economic decline of young men did actually happen. And it happened primarily due to population aging and slowing economic growth.
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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
This paper is interesting in tracing how the gender pay gap is constructed. In the process it accidentally produces the best empirical account I have seen of young men’s fortunes changing. Let’s start with these graphs. Contra @mattbruenig.bsky.social you can see this decline from 1970 -2005 ish.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 10h
Jail time comin'
wsj.com
Exclusive | Homeland Security Money Financed Pro-Trump Television Ads
White House calls the spots public-service ads, but critics argue using taxpayer money for campaign-like messaging may violate federal law.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 11h
30y yields highest since 2002
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 15h
I see we're in the "socialize the losses" phase of the Chinese property unwind (finally; it's taken half a decade) *CHINA TO SUBSIDIZE INTEREST PAYMENTS FOR FIRST-HOME MORTGAGES
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 16h
....? *OURA POSTPONES IPO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN MARKET Fellas VIX is at 16, you're ngmi
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 16h
The raw visceral hatred some men have for women, at least women who step out of line, is shocking. I know it sounds like some sorta "one of the good ones" ploy but I am genuinely taken aback when I see it because I think: I had a fairly normal socialisation as a man in the west, how did I miss this?
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
right, yes. one of the basic problems is that they think that thinking about something really hard is a type of sampling, and that you actually don't need to sample anything to get information, and that there is no difference between thinking about something and doing it.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 29/09/2026
*ANTHROPIC TO SPEND $518B ON CLOUD, COMPUTING IN COMING YR: RTRS *ANTHROPIC SPENDING TO INCLUDE COMPUTING, INFRASTRUCTURE: RTRS
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
GPT-6.1 Astra shelved over safety concerns.
wsj.com
Exclusive | OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns
The model, dubbed GPT-6.1 Astra, was due to debut inside ChatGPT and Codex in October.
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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
At least in VA it seems like the Trump admin VBM actions are just making people return ballots faster Loudoun is at 99% of 2025 total requests, 106% of the same day. Returns are >5k vs 1675 same day
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Carter Lowe @soxq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
They are cooking up food in the #WhiteSox stadium that you cannot possibly comprehend
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evacide @evacide.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Meta Muse appears to read your Apple messages and upload them to the cloud even if you explicitly tell it not to: appleinsider.com/articles/26/...
appleinsider.com
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
yeah I'll bet *TRUMP, ASKED ABOUT IOWA POLLING, CLAIMS POLLS ARE FAKE
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Mark Peifer (He, him) @peiferlabunc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Today's winning Biology All email--in fact this is a contender for best this year
Hi all,

We received a package with no name to GSB 2144 with 80 sheep brains in it. If you are expecting this package, please reach out and we can coordinate the pickup!

Best wishes,
Jenna
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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NYC’s congestion pricing program cut ambulance travel times by over a minute
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
Anthropic continues to take the premium approach with Sonnet 5.5, same cost as Sonnet 5 (though they claim it is much more token efficient, I obviously have no idea if that's true or not).
anthropic.com
Introducing Claude Sonnet 5.5
Claude Sonnet 5.5 is a clear upgrade over Claude Sonnet 5, runs 30%+ faster, and costs up to 30% less for most work.
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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
again, the “yudkowsky is a pedophile” allegations would be the least surprising truth in all of this
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#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 28/09/2026
Brett McGurk, Biden's top advisor and aide on Middle East policy, is out with a new article in the Atlantic today about how Biden avoided a war with Iran. In that piece, he claims that a Gaza ceasefire deal "eluded" the administration he worked in because Biden and Harris were TOO MEAN to Israel.
Biden later told us that he was referring to how Israel should conduct the operation, not whether it was conducted at all. In the same interview, he said he was “never going to leave Israel.” Around the same time, however, Vice President Harris told ABC News that Israel’s operation in Rafah would be a “huge mistake” and refused to rule out “consequences” if it went ahead.
Looking back, it’s no wonder that Hamas never responded to our proposals during this period. We now know that in March 2024, as this political debate was taking place in the U.S., Sinwar was in a tunnel complex underneath Rafah. An avid consumer of news, he would have understood that relations between Biden and Netanyahu were approaching the boiling point.
A year later, Ronen Bar visited Washington, D.C., and met with a group of former Biden aides. One of them asked plaintively what Biden should have done differently in the negotiations with Hamas. Bar pointed to this period in spring 2024, when Biden was said to be blocking Israel’s operation in Rafah. From Bar’s vantage point, that perception had hardened Hamas’s position, making it more difficult to free the hostages and end the war. “That was your biggest mistake,” he said.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
And people say bonds are boring
Price chart of RAGB 0.85 06/30/2120 since issuance.
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Friendly reminder that the Platonic ideal of a 10-year treasury pays a 6% coupon:
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Prof. Michael Fuhrer @michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
There's a lot of confusion about what Covid-19 RNA in wastewater is telling us. Here's data from Biobot for the United States. Currently Covid-19 RNA concentrations are elevated *relative* to recently (a real "wave") but absolute levels are low compared to the height of the pandemic.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
Table stakes for the next Dem President should be tearing up every single 287(g) and throwing them in the trash.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
Extremely cool and useful resource!
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 28/09/2026
This year's record setting El Niño will impact many different parts of the world, with some experiencing severe drought and others flooding. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I explore what impacts happened during past events and which are most likely to occur this year
theclimatebrink.com
The impacts of this year’s record-shattering El Niño
El Niño will drive severe drought from Indonesia to the Southern Africa and northern South America, with wetter winters from the US Gulf Coast to Southern South America.
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Karl Hungus @l0gjammin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
David Zevros is one of Wall Street's most beautiful minds but haters gotta hate, his fit has finally caught up to his intellect look at this metamorphosis into a beautiful butterfly spreading his turmeric wings
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
Incredible scenes, I suspect the Trump DoJ will do nothing but still wild stuff.
wsj.com
Exclusive | Senate Investigation Finds Rampant Use of Tether’s Stablecoin by Iranian Regime
Wallets sanctioned over Iran ties overwhelmingly dealt in Tether’s USDT stablecoin, according to Senate Democrats.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
we only need to bolt on Gundlach for the clown car at Treasury to be complete. *BESSENT HIRES WALL STREET ECONOMIST DAVID ZERVOS: CNBC
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026
*SAUDI ARABIA'S EAST-WEST PIPELINE HAS RESUMED OIL EXPORTS
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good piece this. I winced at the two people in the piece, both hoping for prices that are miles and miles above what their flat is worth:
ft.com
How London became the property market’s black sheep
Capital’s once-relentless property boom has gone into reverse
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Kung Hei FYat Choy!-Gigan @gigansprogress.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Good time to sign up to be a poll worker for November (if you can spare the time) www.eac.gov/help-america...
eac.gov
Become a Poll Worker | U.S. Election Assistance Commission
The EAC encourages those interested in becoming poll workers at the polls on Election Day to learn more about what is required and how to sign up to work with your local election office.
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Mike Boylan-Kolchin @mbkplus.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Sure, go ahead, post about a relatively important distinction that matters, I say to myself. People can handle it without being too weird, I reassure myself.
Me: think we need to differentiate between "Al uses a lot of water!" (not necessarily bad on its own) and "Al stresses local water supplies" (a potentially real issue). The distinction is important because even "modest" use can cause serious issues, especially given the locations of data centers

A very normal person: 

think we need to feed you to the ocean
1/2
...
isla @punishedisla.bsky.social •1m
I'm right here at the shore, I could hold your head beneath the waves for an easier experience of providing us with better writing
2/2
...
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Still, it's extremely difficult to predict how tech will interact with arts businesses Take US novel sales, which had been declining for decades up to 2020. Would anyone have anticipated that short-form video apps like TikTok would reverse this trend and send book sales soaring?
a graph of recreational book sales
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Mel Buer @melbuer.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I want to make another point here, that I think Faine does an excellent job of highlighting: there isn't anything particularly wrong with putting on sex parties with consenting adults A big issue here is that women are being pressured to attend in order to network *professionally*
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 27/09/2026
Butterfly knowers: are these monarchs
Orange and black butterflies on a bush with purple flowersMore butterflies
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