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Really amazing that Colorado, which was a swing state in recent memory, doesn't have a single public poll of its open-seat race for governor this year—which could prove to be an epic blowout that has major ramifications downballot.

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 5h

A nerdy topic even for *us,* but an important one!

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 5h

Groups from across the political spectrum are urging a "no" vote on Michigan's "con-con" question, but one notable Republican isn't so sure. State Rep. Jay DeBoyer, running for lieutenant governor, this month suggested conservatives could vote "yes" as a way to remove abortion rights amendment.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 5h

Michigan will decide in November whether to hold the nation's first constitutional convention since the 1980s. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has scheduled a similar referendum for his state for April—but his fellow Republicans argue he lacks this power and this vote shouldn't happen.

the-downballot.com

Morning Digest: Voters in two states could soon choose to rewrite their constitutions

Michigan will hold a vote this fall, while Oklahoma is embroiled in a legal battle

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 5h

Trump on Paxton at that midterm convention: "Some may not like the way he dresses—although tonight he looked very spiffy in his blue suit, I must tell you ... I don’t. They may not like the way he talks. I can see that." www.texastribune.org/2026/09/09/g...

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Justin Levitt @justinlevitt.bsky.social · 16h

I will die on this hill: Litigation to extend voting hours isn't usually worth it. You have to know that lots of voters blocked early on: - couldn't make it back by regular closing, and - could make it back by the later time. That extra hour isn't usually worth the practical downside.

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Philip Bump @pbump.com · 14h

Gas prices are basically the only economic measure that people track on a near-daily basis. And right now they are significantly worse than when Biden was facing the 2022 midterms — and particularly in several states with close Senate elections. www.ctinsider.com/columnist/ar...

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 16h

That "summer polling sugar high" Dems were supposedly on sure hasn't shown any signs of abating

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16h

On Sept. 1, Dems had a 6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, per @fiftyplusone.news' aggregate. Today, it's D+8. fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 21h

Deleted a previous version of a tweet sharing this ad because we didn't want to suggest that the detail about the convicted rapist, John Arias, being the estranged husband of the victim was some sort of mitigation. To the contrary—it makes it even worse.

youtube.com

Pardon

YouTube video by Nebraska Values

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Any enterprising North Carolina reporters feel like digging into this story? Surely there's gotta be a police report!

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Quite the flag from @jacobbiba.bsky.social. Ad from Republican in #NC11: Jennifer Balkcom: Mom raised us on her own. She taught us to be strong. And when someone broke into our house, she shot 'em. Mom: You break into my house, you're going to get shot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1lD...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Missouri Republicans spent months trying to stop voters from getting to weigh in on ballot measures to block their new gerrymander and restrict the legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-backed ballot initiatives. They lost in court and have little time to put together actual campaigns.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Montana Republicans unsuccessfully tried to make judicial races partisan elections where candidates could be identified on the ballot as Republicans or Democrats. A constitutional amendment would amend the state's governing document to say, “Judicial elections shall remain nonpartisan.”

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship.

the-downballot.com

Morning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in Montana

A key Supreme Court race—and a plan to protect judicial independence—are both on the ballot

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

At @fiftyplusone.news, Noah Wyhof-Rudnick recently showed that the share of internal House polls released by each party correlates fairly closely with the national House popular vote blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why-does-e...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Now that party cmtes no longer file IE reports b/c of SCOTUS, it's been very hard to track advertising from DCCC & NRCC. Today, the D-Trip said it was on TV in 35 districts but only named three. Nicholas Wu at @semafor.com obtained a full list. The DCCC had previously announced TV buys in 24 CDs.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026

This move will only draw more attention to the story. Takedown notice sometimes succeed in removing third-party ads b/c stations may conclude the risks of a defamation suit are too high. But they're immune from liability for defamation for *candidate* ads, which this one is. #StreisandEffect

kansasreflector.com

Roger Marshall alleges defamation in new ad about former Kansas patient arrested while in debt • Kansas Reflector

Lawyers for U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican running for reelection, sent his opponent a cease-and-desist letter demanding the Democrat stop airing an ad featuring one of the senator’s former pa...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026

Quite a clip here of the candidates in hotly contested #NC11 being asked whether GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards should resign, from Reuben Jones at Spectrum News. Dem Jamie Ager swiftly says yes. Republican Jennifer Balkcom pauses for 13 seconds before saying, "I'm not sure." x.com/ReubenJones1...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026

Here's an interesting detail from our independent expenditure tracker, which we've just updated with the most recent week's data: Two-thirds of all spending so far by HMP & CLF has gone toward GOP-held districts, which make up 70% of the battlefield. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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Headquarters @headquartersnews.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Ken Paxton: The criticism has been that I let a child predator out after one day. Well guess what? They served 60 days.

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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Republicans re-gerrymandering Texas and other Southern legislatures in 2027 was already likely after they killed the Voting Rights Act and normalized mid-decade remaps. But Democrats could block it by winning for Texas House or governor, and a quorum break could block it in a 2026 lame duck session

Screenshot of a post on X by Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot), posted at 12:22 PM on Sep 28, 2026, with 4,292 views. The post reads: "Missed this over the weekend, but a Texas GOP state rep expressed interest in re-redistricting next year."

It quotes a Sep 25 post by Rob Laucius (@RobLauciusTX, verified), replying to @RobLauciusTX, @realmitchlittle, and 7 others. The quoted post reads: "Little says he has heard rumors of redistricting the Texas House and Senate. Leach says @GeneforTexas has expressed interest in doing so if Democrats win, says …" The quoted text is cut off at that point.

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The mayoral race has all the headlines, but one of the starkest choices for Angelenos is further downballot: the race for city attorney. From enforcing tenants' rights to policing homelessness, this office matters matters on all sorts of things. Learn more in our new Bolts reporting!

boltsmag.org

The Most Overlooked But Wide-Reaching Office on the Los Angeles Ballot - Bolts

In June, when Hydee Feldstein Soto became the first Los Angeles city attorney to lose a primary reelection race in nearly 100 years, her ouster put the spotlight on an... Read More

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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Democrats are favored to flip the Wisconsin State Senate for the first time in 16 years. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/2026-elect...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026

Simmons is campaigning to unseat County Judge Tim O’Hare, who holds a powerful office that's executive rather than judicial. Ted Cruz this month at rally for O’Hare: "The left wants to flip this county. We can’t let that happen."

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026

Fort Worth's Tarrant County was long a bastion for Texas Republicans up and down the ballot. Alisa Simmons has the chance to become its first Democratic leader since 1986 in a contest that could impact her party's statewide fortunes.

the-downballot.com

Morning Digest: Texas Democrats campaign for control of battleground county

The race to lead once-red Tarrant County could have big implications statewide

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 26/09/2026

"In nearly every truly competitive race today, both sides already have enough money to blanket television, your favorite websites and mailboxes. "At some point, an additional $10 million or $20 million mostly means voters see even more of the same ads they were already seeing."

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Jason Rosenbaum @jasonrosenbaum.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

. @cleaver.house.gov to me: “The joy I feel now is generated by the fact that the people won this battle.” Missourians used the referendum process to foil Donald Trump's effort to redraw the state's congressional districts. Full @stlpublicradio.bsky.social coverage:

stlpr.org

U.S. Supreme Court again blocks Missouri from using Trump-backed congressional map

This is the third time the high court has stymied efforts to implement a map aimed at ousting Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver.

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Justin Levitt @justinlevitt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

And you know, this concept applies to the "martial law" nonsense too. If you want to freak out over things that aren't things, then I suggest you focus on the fact that the President will order you to send your unicorn to the flubber factory before the next election.

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Justin Levitt @justinlevitt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

A bit later than expected: SCOTUS stays the renegade federal order on MO congressional districts. No dissents. (Because the 8th Cir. was _that_ far out of line.) The elections under way will continue using the 2022 congressional map. The hardest part of the next six weeks: ignoring the noise.

supremecourt.gov

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/09/2026

Trump approval rating in all four of the states he's reportedly set to campaign in, from @civiqs.bsky.social: AK: -12 FL: -15 IA: -19 TX: -20 civiqs.com/results/appr...

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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The last two sentences are … direct. Link: www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...

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Kyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

BREAKING: The Supreme Court is requiring Missouri to use its 2022 map in the general election, rejecting a late push by lower courts to require the state to implement a GOP-friendlier 2025 gerrymandering.

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Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Trump’s second term in two charts. A bit more context at my (Free!) substack: charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/trumps-sec...

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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 25/09/2026

Flock cameras are everywhere lately, both literally and in the news. Today's Trendline takes a look at how unpopular these cameras are with Americans across the political spectrum, and what uses are (and aren't) acceptable. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/flock-came...

blog.fiftyplusone.news

Americans are skeptical of Flock cameras

Plus, polls about the economy, the United Nations, and how often people lie

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 25/09/2026

On Highway to Hill this week, @the-downballot.com's own @davidnir.com joined me and SoRelle to talk about these trends. "Democrats need to be prepared for the possibility of a massive year, even bigger than 2018."

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There's still more to show in the relationship between primary votes and the House popular vote! You can plot the data in graph below as a scatterplot. But a) it's obvious from the original graph this is a bad idea and b) it's not too helpful if you want to predict things. But...

A scatterplot of House popular vote margin versus national primary margin in midterm elections from 1918 to 2022. While there is a decent regression for the data, they fall in a wide band, such that any prediction you try to make will not be helpful. For instance, this year we would expect a House popular vote margin between about R +15 or so and D +12 based on the primary margin of D +11. Not useful at all!

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/09/2026

Lots more in our new Digest: • A stunning new poll has Vermont's Republican governor losing, but caution is warranted. • Nevada Republican's new scandal tests GOP's hold on red House seat. • Democratic group spends over $1 million boosting former Rep. Tom Perriello's uphill comeback in Virginia.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/09/2026

Oklahoma Republicans gerrymandered this U.S. House seat to make sure they never had a repeat of their shock 2018 loss. But Jena Nelson argues she has a path to unseat Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice—and national Democrats reportedly are listening.

the-downballot.com

Morning Digest: The site of 2018's biggest shocker might soon draw renewed Democratic interest

The DCCC is reportedly eyeing a seat the GOP gerrymandered after an upset in the last blue wave

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Adam Schiffer @adamschiffer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This is an incredible chart, to the point where I'm trying to figure out what's wrong. I know the data are legit. And you can't argue that it's tautological. How did we not pick up on this tight correlation before?

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026

#NV02 is one of those very conservative districts that nonetheless seems to be in play thanks to a strong Dem candidate and a *very* poor GOP candidate. Here's the latest from @danmerica.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

David Flippo, a Republican congressional candidate in Nevada, inflated his military record multiple times in recent years by claiming he received a Bronze Star “for valor” during his two-decade Air Force career.

Flippo received a Bronze Star in 2004 for his service, but not the Bronze Star with valor, a much rarer distinction that recognizes heroism in direct combat with an enemy. Experts on military awards say such exaggerations are tantamount to lying. The Flippo campaign acknowledged the misrepresentations but downplayed them as “honest mistakes” by staff members.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026

More details on this poll: Pollster: GBAO Sample: 500 LVs Field dates: Sept. 18-21, 2026 x.com/cjwarnke/sta...

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

From the NYT/Press Herald/Siena Maine poll crosstabs: Maine likely voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate by 55-43. Including... 13% of those who are voting for Susan Collins. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026

This is such good work

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)

Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.

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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Subscribe to The Recombobulation Area, the only publication crazy enough to preview every race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature. Yep, all 116 of them. www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

therecombobulationarea.com

Subscribe to The Recombobulation Area

Dan Shafer's award-winning political opinion column and online publication on the discombobulating politics of Milwaukee and Wisconsin. Click to read The Recombobulation Area, by Dan Shafer, a Substac...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026

Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang (pictured) led longtime Rep. Doris Matsui in June's top-two primary, and they'll face off again in the fall. Matsui to ABC10: "I know that I’ve delivered." Vang: "If seniority would have saved us, we wouldn’t be here today."

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026

The primaries are over, but California's top-two system has set off five competitive Democrat vs. Democrat general elections for House—plus one big race between two Republican incumbents.

the-downballot.com

Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: We've got the lowdown on all of California's Democrat vs. Democrat contests

Thanks to the top-two primary, several incumbents still face serious intra-party trouble

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