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G Elliott Morris

@gelliottmorris.com
60K followers 359 following 5K posts

i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/welcome pollster: wavepolling.com book: wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers polls/forecasts: @fiftyplusone.news formerly 538 & The Economist

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Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Manuel Salgado @manuelsalgado.bsky.social · 2h
Honestly content like this is why this is one of the few substacks I pay for.
static.klipy.com
I have the receipts
ALT: I have the receipts
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 2h
Subscribe to Strength In Numbers today for unparalleled Value Above Replacement www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe/
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 5h
Strength In Numbers called this eight months ago www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri... (from The Bulwark's latest Focus Group pod)
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 15h
don't threaten me with a good time mikey
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17h
On Sept. 1, Dems had a 6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, per @fiftyplusone.news' aggregate. Today, it's D+8. fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 29/09/2026
Starting to think it’s part of CNN’s social media strategy to keep doing this extraordinarily dumb take (“90% of people who tell us they like to eat apples also enjoy apple cider”) as a way to get the president’s attention and thus more clicks. Harry knows better
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Excellent, as usual, @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social piece today on where things stand electorally and, more importantly, why. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/whats-gone...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
What’s Gone Wrong For the GOP
And some speculation about why.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 29/09/2026
We have a new high poll for Dems AFAIK of D+16 on the generic ballot among likely voters. I think pollsters are playing kind of fast and loose with these filters to only use decided voters but still. Holy hell
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
Tomorrow, Strength In Numbers will release the latest findings from our September survey with Verasight on voters' worries about ICE being deployed to the polls, and other "election security" measures proposed by the president. Get it in your inbox: www.gelliottmorris.com/welcome/
gelliottmorris.com
Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris | Substack
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a…
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
ken paxton is cutting ads against ken paxton fiftyplusone.news/forecast/sen...
fiftyplusone.news
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
Shot, chaser. This is why you subscribe to Strength In Numbers, folks!! www.gelliottmorris.com/welcome
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
I can't wait to get my 'goodies' from the government
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
I have built a novel dataset of news headlines that get shared by the press that updates daily and stretches back to 2016. Looking at data over the last month, Trump's first-ever midterm convention failed to change the news agenda. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-28...
gelliottmorris.com
Iran, prices, ICE, and Epstein are the biggest stories of 2026
In a new database of news headlines stretching back to 2016, I show Trump's midterm convention failed to change news agendas
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
i am not sure an ad that says "paid for by the U.S. government" is going to have the effect the president wants it to have...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026
absolutely amazing chart
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anachron @anachron2.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
we need a watto origin story first
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 27/09/2026
Multiple ads I believe
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 27/09/2026
Enough with the skywalkers already. Do the Thrawn ascendancy trilogy you cowards
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 27/09/2026
Donald Trump's promise to send $5,000 checks to every adult if the Republicans win the midterms has backfired horrifically. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-27...
gelliottmorris.com
Only 13% of voters buy Trump’s promise to send $5k checks if GOP wins midterms
This is why a midterm convention is a dumb idea, part one. Plus how Democrats should deal with low trust in government in 2027-28. Your weekly political data roundup for September 27, 2026.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 27/09/2026
the 1960 congressional map was wild
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2026
We have found one thing Donald Trump is more popular than: Flock cameras open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...
open.substack.com
Americans are skeptical of Flock cameras
Plus, polls about the economy, the United Nations, and how often people lie
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2026
chernobyl should be number 1. it is not close
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2026
Yes, this is true in both observational data (correlating the impact of media coverage of deportations on Trump's approval rating) and a survey experiment we ran last year (priming voters about deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/kilmar-abr...
gelliottmorris.com
Media coverage of Kilmar Abrego Garcia hurt Trump, not Democrats
Public opinion on immigration has shifted — and pundits need to catch up
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Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
More than 1 in 4 *Trump voters* say the country is worse off than it was four years ago.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2026
The entire US politics and news industries spend a large chunk of their waking hours on a platform designed to inflate the importance of that 18%. It's a big problem, and why you get stuff like Tammy Duckworth saying she's against impeachment because she wants to "find a compromise" on USAID $
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2026
Our new Strength In Numbers/ @Verasight.io poll: 58% say the U.S. is worse off under Trump vs Biden, 24% say it’s better www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-25...
gelliottmorris.com
58% say the U.S. is worse off under Trump vs Biden, 24% say it’s better
Our new poll shows by a 56-26 margin, voters want Congress to be a check on Trump — including a quarter of Republicans
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2026
well "kids don't need to know long division because they will learn how to move sets of transistors around on a die" is certainly *a* take. it is also not the kind of thing I want to hear from the head of the highest valued company on earth
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
Weekly podcast live stream happening shortly. Talking about our new poll at SIN (with some previously unreleased results), the latest forecast at FPO, and the polls for DEMs and REPs open.substack.com/live-stream/...
open.substack.com
LIVE SOON: The polls are getting better and better for Democrats
Starting Sep 24 at 2:00 PM EDT
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
Good god
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
Much is being made of the new NYT poll in Maine, which is an outlier and shows Collins leading. But the NYT polls in MI and NH actually have better numbers for Dems than the averages there. So forecasts may not move much in aggregate fiftyplusone.news/averages#sen...
fiftyplusone.news
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
Why is economic sentiment so low when GDP growth is positive? There’s no reasonable explanation, the only possible conclusion is that people are all just doing a mass hysteria (/s)
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
This is such good work
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
No president has ever gone into a midterm election as unpopular as Trump is today. Not even George W. Bush in 2006. Trump's net approval is twice as low as it was at this point in 2018. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/no-preside...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Democrats hit midterm high as Trump approval reaches new low
No president has gone into a midterm election this unpopular. Not even George W. Bush in 2006.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
Begging pollsters to just stop for a single hour releasing new surveys with the president hitting new lows so I can finalize these graphs for an article
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 23/09/2026
The idea that Latino voters were experiencing a long-term realignment toward Trump in 2024, which was put forth by many reactionary pundits urging acquiescence to the Trump regime, turns out to be false. As some of us argued at the time, they are just very reactive to national conditions.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
Trump should do another convention
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
Yes. here you go. Trump’s approval is significantly below where it was in 2018
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
This is before adding CNN or Marist fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
“While our past surveys documented that the president has lost significant ground with non-college-educated white voters, independents, non-voters, Hispanics, and young people, this month’s survey reveals Trump slipping significantly with his own party.” www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-23...
gelliottmorris.com
Poll: Trump's approval hits a new low of 33% as Republicans sour; Democrats lead House vote by 10 with likely voters
The president's approval fell 11 points among Republicans last month, as he set another record low on prices at 21% approve
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
It is important to realize that the months-long cycle we had last year of pundits endlessly saying the Dem Party fav rating being in the toilet would hurt them in ’26 was simply wrong and stupid. And also, we said this at the time! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democratic...
gelliottmorris.com
The Democratic image is underwater — but they're not losing
The party has a near-historically low favorability rating. This is mostly due to disaffection on the left, where voters still say they'll vote Democratic for the midterms
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
Trump's approval rating has hit a new low of 33% in our new Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.io poll just out this AM. POTUS's disapproval is 63%, for a net of -30. Democrats lead by 10 points among likely voters on the generic ballot Read more: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-23...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026
new poll coming out tomorrow morning. some pretty big moves vs last month. get it in your inbox: www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
gelliottmorris.com
Subscribe to Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a ...
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halfmarshall.bsky.social @halfmarshall.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
@gelliottmorris.com wrote recently about why forecasters lag behind pollsters, but even forecasters are growing more bullish on Democrats. www.gelliottmorris.com
gelliottmorris.com
Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris | Substack
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a ...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/09/2026
solid chance he is in the 34s tomorrow
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 21/09/2026
sorry didn't have time to post earlier when this happened but: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
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bjkeefe @bjkeefe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Agreed. It's worth having a look at @gelliottmorris.com's site, and noting how ARG compares to other recent polls on this exact question. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Table of data from https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president showing Trump's approval/disapproval from five recent polls. American Research Group has him at net +39%. The other four range from +12 to +24. NB: here, plus sign means "how much more disapprove than approve".
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 21/09/2026
These guys are trying to run the 2024 culture war playbook at a time when ~80% of the American public says the administration does not have the right priorities and are neglecting affordability (which Trump called a hoax at the GOP "convention"). This is a losing strategy
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 21/09/2026
From my personal experience people don't want to pay you to tell them they can't do anything about, eg, the very likely anti-Dem. midterm backlash in 2030 (or, gulp, 34). But it's true. So consultants make up stuff like "Kamala Harris would have won if she ran anti-trans ads"
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Karen Monroy @karenmonroy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Seriously- this is the best explanation I’ve encountered as to why we appear to get so many conflicting reports on polling and voting! 
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 20/09/2026
Nebraska, Iowa, and Maine 👀
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