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Aaron Strauss

@aaronstrauss.bsky.social
531 followers 323 following 785 posts

Following the evidence to elect more Dems. Dad x2; kidney donor; baker; goalkeeper

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Reposted by Aaron Strauss
public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
oh my GOD
phoenixnewtimes.com
Congressional candidate is raped while repairing her campaign signs
Embarrassed, she initially didn’t want to report attack. Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office's investigation is ongoing.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly with a special message to one of her constituents--funny kicker at the end as well 🩰
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Ken Schwencke @schwanksta.com · 06/10/2026
A year ago, @propublica.org told you immigration agents had detained more than 170 U.S. citizens. We’ve updated our count, and we’ve got all the receipts. The tally: At least 506 citizens detained. Sometimes held at gunpoint, handcuffed, or even deported. projects.propublica.org/american-cit...
projects.propublica.org
More Than 500 U.S. Citizens Have Been Detained, Including Handcuffed or Held at Gunpoint, in Trump’s Immigration Crackdown — ProPublica
The government doesn’t track how often immigration officers detain U.S. citizens. So ProPublica did. We’ve found more than 500 Americans who were held against their will during this Trump administrati...
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Two concrete learnings this AM: 1) D respondents are more engaged than Rs--might lead to small bias @gelliottmorris.com gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-06-survey-effort-nonresponse 2) DC's Medicaid has massive fraud in one specific code @stanveuger.bsky.social capitalcommonsense.com/p/why-is-dcs...
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Dan Vergano @danvergano.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
First Birth Cohort Eligible for Chickenpox Vaccine Had a Sharp Drop in Shingles Cases www.epicresearch.org/articles/fir...
epicresearch.org
First Birth Cohort Eligible for Chickenpox Vaccine Had a Sharp Drop in Shingles Cases
The share of adults diagnosed with shingles between 2019 and 2026 rose steeply with age, from about 7 per 10,000 among those born between 2006 and 2008 to 182 per 10,000 among those born between 1968 ...
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

    97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).
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Anna Alexandrova @annaalexandrova.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Somebody somewhere in Russia sent a drone to hit this great Kyiv institution. We mustn’t get used to this
nytimes.com
Russian Drone Strikes Ukraine’s Science Academy, Causing Fire in City Center (Gift Article)
A Russian jet-powered drone hit Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, the source of almost all of the country’s major scientific discoveries.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is a regular feature of data-matching, especially when done in a half-assed way. The purpose is to create the false claims of fraud. For example, Republicans complained for years about the risk of double voting. A credible system was built to detect it (ERIC). Then they killed it.
ERIC had been relatively uncontroversial since its creation. The idea behind it started in 2008, when election officials identified the potential for people to have multiple registrations in different states — in itself not surprising in a country that is at once highly mobile but operates a decentralized voting system — creating the potential for voting in different states. ERIC offered a tool that could track that problem, through a mixture of data sourcing and analytical tools that minimized false positives. By identifying moves and deaths, it allowed states to keep the voting rolls accurate. In 2013 it had seven members, which would increase to 32 states at its height.

Then in January of 2022, the Louisiana Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin dropped out of ERIC. He made his announcement to a group of far right election activists, to sustained applause. But for other election officials it was a puzzle. One state election official who worked for GOP secretaries of state said:

Everybody looked at this and said, 'This is insane, what are you talking about?' As soon as [Ardoin] did that — that created this pressure on the other Republican states that wasn't there before
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I'm sure "but then the other side will go after me" has always been a worry, but recent Grand Juries have shown how the system can stand up to abuses of power. Our country really got this all wrong.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 24/09/2026
Yes. I think the consensus among US elite pundits and senior politicians that the way to protect liberal democracy is *not* to punish elite figures who violate its rules is wrong. A norm starting at least with the Watergate pardon. The opposite is true. You need to enforce the law and Constitution.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Confluence of indicators pointing to a huge swing and upset win in TX-23 -- NYT poll has Dem Katy Padilla Stout in the lead!
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Oh, and here's my spreadsheet docs.google.com/spreadsheets... And thanks to @the-downballot.com for scoring every district by the 2024 pres result -- super helpful! www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
That's the lot. If you're excited to expand the map, like I am, contribute those these campaigns (plus 2 close Senate races) here! secure.actblue.com/donate/stret...
secure.actblue.com
Chip in!
Show your support with a contribution.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
But my favorite district--one that will be surprisingly close at a minimum--is NC-13 (Trump+16). Dem Paul Barringer is a health care expert who impressively raised over $1M by June. His opponent, Rep. Brad Knott, is a nut. Nearly the most conservative member & he under-performs. Watch this one.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
TX-9 was truly a shocker. A Trump+20(!) district, more Dems cast primary ballots than Rs--even if turnout was low (35k D vs 32k D). Their nominee, Alex Mealer, has a huge cash advantage. Good thing our nom, Leticia Gutierrez, is a community organizer. This one will have to be won on the ground
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
TX-23 is an open seat -- a border district where both candidates are against "The Wall". Of course, only a Dem Congress can stop one! With competitive senate primaries on both sides, turnout was 59k vs 55k -- a surprising differential for a Trump+15 district.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Turnout is always high in MN, and a whopping 70k(!) Dems cast votes in the MN-08 primary (vs 67k Rs). Challenger Trina Swanson's two main issues are health care and mining -- a perfect combo for this Iron Range district.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Next up is the Trump+13 district NJ-2, the seat turncoat Rep. Van Drew holds. He was elected as a Dem back in 2018 but then decided to become a Trump crony. Voters in this district are out for revenge, as 44k Dems turned out in the primary vs just 35k Rs (even with an R senate primary).
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Staying in Ohio, Trump won OH-15 by 10 points, but Dem turnout swamped Rs in the primary (45k - 39k). Dem Don Leonard faces ex coal lobbyist Rep. Mike Carey; Carey does NOT have a history of over-performing. A Blue Tsunami would propel Leonard (or "DON" as his signs say) to victory.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
First up: Kristina Knickerbocker in OH-10--Air Force vet & nurse, she's ready to take on DC with a very personal health care story. www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRkz... More Dems voted in the primary than Rs (45k-44k), but Rep. Turner is a mod & tough opponent -- this'll be close!
youtube.com
Knickerbocker for Congress Launch 'Mission'
YouTube video by Kristina Knickerbocker
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Great @the-downballot.com nationwide analysis of how the Blue Wave could be a Blue Tsunami. Diving into specific districts, I found six non-DCCC-Red-to-Blue Dem challengers where Dem primary turnout exceeded R's. Trump won all these districts by 8 or more. Can we snatch some victories in '26? A 🧵
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Bethany Albertson @albertsonb2.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Our students don’t deserve this. For those who don’t understand UT Austin admissions, most undergrads get in bc they were top 5% of their graduating class, from a Texas high school. Anyone calling for more white students is advocating for race conscious admissions - to help out white students.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
So when I give to @wck.org some of that money goes to Google ads for the search term "GiveWell"? 😡😡😡
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Laura Belin @laurarbelin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Jess Djukanovic was denied care for a doomed pregnancy under Iowa's abortion ban and almost lost her life. When she was getting a ton of online hate last year for sharing her story, only one politician reached out. I caught up with Jess after @robsandia.bsky.social's Dallas County town hall.
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Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇
Abstract for the paper "The Electoral Effects of U.S. Prison Construction" by Ottone & Weiss: From 1980 to 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons, a rapid expansion of carceral capacity mirroring the punitive turn in public policy and public opinion. Yet few studies have examined the impact of prison construction on nearby residents and their political behavior. We develop a theoretical model tracing how prison openings affect economic, attitudinal, and electoral outcomes in surrounding communities. Us- ing modern difference-in-difference methods and a novel county-level dataset covering forty years of prison openings, we find that prison construction decreases county-level vote share for Republican candidates, especially if Republicans represented the county during prison construction. Drawing on analyses of economic outcomes and prison bond measure support, we argue that voters sanction issue-owning Republican candi- dates for negative economic externalities and turn against funding for prisons. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about the political economy of prisons and have implications for how we understand contemporary expansions of carceral capacity.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
As I was saying a little while ago: bsky.app/profile/aaro...
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm a Dem because I want people to have basic rights and healthcare. But I also love our party because we follow the damn evidence. & so we land in the same place: Swing voters aren't ideos; they have heterodox positions. Candidates' positions matter (tho maybe folks disagree on the exact amount)
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Melody Schreiber @melodyschreiber.com · 15/09/2026
Pennsylvania just announced the fourth death from measles this year. All patients were unvaccinated. This is so sad.
Pennsylvania Department of Health Confirms Two Additional Measles-Associated Deaths

 

Pennsylvania Department of Health has recorded four measles-associated deaths in 2026.

 

Getting vaccinated remains the best protection against measles, providing 97% lifetime protection after two doses.

 

Harrisburg, PA – The Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH) today confirmed two additional measles-associated deaths in Pennsylvania. Both individuals were unvaccinated. One individual lived in Jefferson County and the other lived in Mifflin County.

 

To protect the privacy of both individuals and their families, DOH will not be releasing any additional details that could personally identify them. While local officials in the respective counties where the deaths occurred may release more details about the deceased, DOH is bound by different laws that strictly limit what it can share publicly. The two additional deaths will be added to DOH’s measles dashboard Wednesday, as part of the regular update. 

 

The best protection against measles remains getting fully vaccinated. The MMR vaccine, administered over two doses, boosts a person’s immune system and provides 97% lifetime protection.
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I'll confess I'm shocked by this: seeing a respected progressive voice openly argue that it's better to defeat Democrats who have been flaky on trans rights than to secure Democratic control of the US Senate and US House. Unbelievably foolish, short-sighted, self-sabotaging nonsense.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I missed this when it came out in August, but the Post editorial board is now just a mouthpiece for fact-free claims by the Trump administration now. This is just demonstrably wrong. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Medicaid needs stronger work requirements
About 59 percent of nondisabled adults on Medicaid did not work in 2024, according to a think tank's estimate.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Stay curious www.abebooks.com/978052140449...
abebooks.com
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (Cambridge Studies in Public Opinion and Political Psychology) - Zaller, John R.: 9780521404495 - AbeBooks
In this book John Zaller develops a comprehensive theory to explain how people acquire political information from the mass media and convert it into political preferences. Using numerous specific exam...
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Wow, didn't expect you to double down here. Cold comfort for Hillary Clinton's comfortable 3-million-vote win then. I'm not even sure we disagree on your larger point. Just didn't want people to think Biden won comfortably when uniform swing indicates otherwises.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
If you have some time this weekend, we can hop on a zoom and I can explain the Electoral College and uniform swing to you. Hint: our presidential elections aren't decided by the popular vote. Wisconsin was the pivotal state in 2020. Hope that helps! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/15/s...
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"comfortably"...can I borrow your nerves on election night 2028?
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
30 year fixed rates at 7.08% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Jonathan Howard @joho.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
sciencebasedmedicine.org
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya on Measles: “I Think I’ve Done My Best.”
As football coach Bill Parcells famously said, “you are what your record says you are”.
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Doctor Memory @blank.org · 06/09/2026
“Socialist aesthetics with neoliberal tendencies” really feels like an entirely workable political alliance if we can just stop hissing at each other.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 05/09/2026
Climate scientists arguing for more parking and fewer bike lanes. Absolutely incredible, 11/10, no noted at all.
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Matthew Doyle @mattdoyle.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Ump wears No. 88, eh?
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Rude Law Dog @esghound.com · 05/09/2026
one misconception about football is that you can minimize this through limiting big hits or changing tacking, but the fundamental mechanics of the game, especially at the time of snap when linemen engage each other, involves little head to head collisions that add up over a lifetime
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Trump has been determined to disprove every argument that Electoral College proponents have made. No, it doesn’t compel candidates to pay attention to the interests of voters all over the country. It shields a tyrant from electoral blowback when he tells states that voted against him to drop dead
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I agree with you given one amendment: Strength and clarity around voters' top issue (which usually affects their daily lives)
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Links -- Survey: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-01... Anecdote: nickrafter.substack.com/p/the-rent-m...
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Yeah, this voter's "be like Mamdani" *probably* meant being more progressive (h/t neat survey by @gelliottmorris.com) but the assumption reminded me of this anecdote in which voters thought Mamdani was conservative, like Trump. Focus on (low-info) voters' daily lives and they'll project the rest!
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Ah, but you can't *force* someone off the ballot, so AK's system incentivizes big-tent coalitions and non-nasty politics. That's a nice side effect imho. And I think the main thrust of the reform is working, in that it prevents a 51%-of-majority-party faction from taking over with ease.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Really helpful detailed rundown of DC’s improving school performance, including a lot of subgroup analysis which shows it’s not just gentrification — the results really are getting better. capitalcommonsense.substack.com/p/dc-student...
capitalcommonsense.substack.com
DC Students Post a Fourth Straight Year of Gains on the 2026 State Assessments
Guest Post from Josh Boots, founder of EmpowerK12
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Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
It is not a "grim choice" to support either a psychotic Republican or a mainstream center-left politician.
he Michigan Senate election has presented liberals with a grim choice. The Republican candidate, Mike Rogers, has pledged support for a corrupt, racist, authoritarian-minded administration. Rogers hasn’t made even the tiniest concession to Donald Trump critics. But supporting El-Sayed means accepting a strain of anti-Semitic politics that to date has had no place within the Democratic Party.

What’s more, El-Sayed has already said that he intends to use his victory as a platform to reshape the party. Him winning could invite a future in which the United States has not just one party that is open to bigots but two.

Although El-Sayed has never said anything nearly as inflammatory as the sorts of comments Piker makes routinely, his mixture of anti-Zionism and populism treats pro-Israel activism as a nefarious and all-pervasive force. He has denied that any Democrat who believes in human rights could have any motive other than money for holding a position on Israel different from the one he prefers. El-Sayed tends to depict nearly all opposition to his candidacy as financially driven, but when applied to Jewish political activity,  this charge becomes even more conspiratorial.
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I have, day in and day out since Jan 2025, posted hundreds of examples of Trump’s blatant corruption this term hoping that enough people notice and care. Here is the latest.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
And yes, he tried to pivot to costs a couple questions before ... but sometimes the reporter just won't let it go. www.politico.com/news/magazin...
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