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Wim Thiery

@wimthiery.eu
838 followers 474 following 137 posts

Climate scientist modelling extreme events in a changing climate, Full Professor @vubrussel.bsky.social. Previously research fellow @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social and @ethz.ch. Website: sites.google.com/site/wimthiery

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Reposted by Wim Thiery
Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d
First page of the article 'Equitable cooperation deepens the solution space for high ambition pathways' by Setu Pelz and eleven co-authors, published open access in Environmental Research Letters 21 (2026) 184019 on 18 September 2026. The page shows the author list, affiliations and the abstract.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Current [El Nino] forecasts suggest that the 2026 event could push global mean surface temperatures in 2027 to almost 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels" 😱 Good rundown of El Nino impacts via @zekehausfather.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
📢 𝐉𝐨𝐛 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲: 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫 – 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 (4 years) We are looking for a 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫 to join the 𝐂𝐋𝐈𝐌𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐖 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 (𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐚𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧) at the @vubrussel.bsky.social
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
The FUTURA project will bridge IAM, SCM, ESM, RCM, IM and emulator communities working on climate projections in Europe. Stay tuned for many exciting research and science-policy interfacing in the coming years! @hydr-vub.bsky.social
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This Chart is striking. Strongest El Nino’s on record VS the forecasts from our best seasonal models. Historically the strongest El Nino’s dating back 170 years peaked with a monthly ocean anomaly in the mid-high 2’s. Now 9 of 10 of our national models have 4°C + for late fall. #elnino 1/
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Abigail Swann, PhD @ecoclimatelab.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
We have a new paper on the response of land carbon to zero, declining, and negative emissions of CO2 across Earth System Models! w/ @ckoven.bsky.social @cristiproist.bsky.social @rosieafisher.bsky.social @benmsanderson.bsky.social & more (1/6) esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
esd.copernicus.org
Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions across Earth system models
Abstract. Land carbon sinks are responsible for removing about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and make up approximately half of total global carbon sinks. Uncertainty in the response of lan...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 05/09/2026
@vubrussel.bsky.social haalt 4 Amerikaanse klimaatonderzoekers naar Brussel www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/20...
vrt.be
VUB haalt 4 Amerikaanse klimaatonderzoekers naar Brussel  | VRT NWS Nieuws
De Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) versterkt het klimaatonderzoek met de komst van 4 gerenommeerde onderzoekers uit de Verenigde Staten. Valerie Trouet, David O. Prevatt, Sol Kim en Kirsten Heikkinen...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 22/07/2026
Europees transportsysteem dreigt steeds vaker in de knoop te raken door weerextremen vrtnws.be/p.w79VW8YpM
vrtnws.be
Zal Europees transportsysteem steeds vaker in de knoop raken door weerextremen? | VRT NWS Nieuws
De transportinfrastructuur in Europa is niet klaar voor de klimaatverandering. Dat blijkt uit een nieuwe studie waaraan onder meer de VUB meewerkte. "We zien dat wegen, spoorwegen, havens, luchthavens...
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
“So next time someone tells you Canada’s fires can be solved by raking the forests, you can point out that the thing filling their sky with smoke is a lightning-struck, drought-primed boreal forest doing what a warming climate is making it do more and more often.”
theclimatebrink.com
Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management
Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/07/2026
With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Recent Belgian Heatwave Declared Deadliest on Record: “the situation during the peak weekend was so severe that excess mortality surpassed even the worst weekend of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between June 22nd and June 27th, a staggering 1,747 excess deaths were recorded.” #Belgium #heatwave #europe
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 09/07/2026
June 2026 data from Copernicus ECMWF offered another stark reminder of our changing #climate: - Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record - Globally it was the 2nd warmest June according to ERA5 Our climate system is continuing to accumulate heat .
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 06/07/2026
El Niño continues to grow, with sea surface temperatures clearly at record high levels for the time of year... 📈 Sign up for our next monthly briefing to learn more, including Q/A: climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... We'll also have an update on 2026's U.S. billion-dollar disasters so far.
Line graph time series of daily Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures from 1982 to 2026. This year is currently a record high for this time of year. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1, and the graphic is created by Climate Central.
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Prof. Sonia I Seneviratne @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
🥵 Europe has been affected by a terrible heatwave, with impacts across the continent & record-breaking temperatures in many countries. The @ipcc.bsky.social #AR6 conclusions show that that heat extremes have become more intense & more frequent across the world due to human-induced climate change.
Changes in temperature extremes as function of global warming, from Fig. SPM.6 of IPCC AR6 WGI (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf); based on data from IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 11 (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf)
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 26/06/2026
What is the future of summers in England? Our choices matter. A high-emissions future will commit our children and grandchildren to live in a world where the summers of 1976 & 2025 are cold. A global net-zero emissions future means that we can stabilise the climate & those summers will be normal.
England average summer temperatures in a high emissions futureEngland average summer temperatures in a global net-zero emissions future
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
People will die this week. The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F). For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.
Map of forecasted temperatures at 5 PM on Tuesday 6/23 from the ICON model.  Image source: https://www.ventusky.com/#p=48.1;-8.4;5&t=20260623/1500
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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave.
2 m temperature weekly mean anomaly from ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast. The colors are red in Europe, with > 10 °C above normal over France.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/06/2026
A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 15/06/2026
The emergency events database, EM-DAT, must be preserved as a global public good Our new commentary in the Int. Journal of Public Health with N. Speybroeck, I. Noy, A. Kettner, R. Below, G. Messori, V. Wathelet, @ajezeq.bsky.social, D. Delforge, D. van Niekerk www.ssph-journal.org/journals/int...
ssph-journal.org
SSPH+ | The emergency events database, EM-DAT, must be preserved as a global public good
More broadly, planetary health has emerged as an important perspective in public health, reflecting growing concern about the health impacts of climate and e...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 11/06/2026
With June runs in for all the ENSO models and the "spring predictability barrier" mostly behind us, the odds of a record-breaking El Niño event this fall have continued to increase. Here are all the latest runs (including today's C3S updates):
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 07/06/2026
I just want to point out that temperatures over land (where we all live) have warmed over twice as fast as ocean surface temperatures. The latest update through 2025 is... not great 🥴 Graphic created by www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temp...
Line graph time series of land surface temperature and sea surface temperatures from 1880 to 2025 relative to a 1880-1920 baseline. Land areas are warming at 0.28°C/decade from 1970-2010, while sea surface temperatures are warming at 0.11°C decade. Graphic shows the linear trends over these periods. Land temperatures reached well over 2.0°C above the 1880-1920 baseline in 2025. Data is from NASA/GISS GISTEMPv4.
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Nature @nature.com · 02/06/2026
The Amazon rainforest could be at a tipping point go.nature.com/4dVqWvY
go.nature.com
Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest
Amazonian deforestation is altering atmospheric moisture transport; as a result, even low levels of global warming could trigger dieback of most of the remaining forest.
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Hard to believe I’m even writing this. Meteorological summer hasn’t even begun, yet Paris, France has already logged more days above 32°C than its annual average.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
JUST DROPPED: For years I thought industrial electrification potential was limited. How wrong I was. Engineering studies point to 90%+. Long term scenarios support this. Technology is much further ahead than we think. Question is whether policy keeps up. janrosenow.substack.com/p/industry-f...
janrosenow.substack.com
Industry: from hard-to-abate to ready-to-electrify
How far can industry run on electricity?Much ffurther and faster than the 'hard-to-abate' label suggests.
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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
In response to recent misinformation about the use of scenarios in IPCC reports: the IPCC does not conduct its own research, run models or make measurements. The IPCC’s role is to assess the available scientific, peer-reviewed literature relevant to climate change: www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/i...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/05/2026
Burning fossil fuels has made this heatwave hotter. True for the UK today, and everywhere else, all of the time.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 19/05/2026
The paper describing the ISIMIP3b simulation protocol and climate-related forcings from CMIP6 is now available in @egu.eu GMD. Encyclopedic reference work led by Katja Frieler and the ISIMIP core team @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. What an effort! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
gmd.copernicus.org
Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
Abstract. This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs), i.e. change in climate comprising the atmosphere and the ocean, coastal water levels, and atmospheric composition (CO2 and methane c...
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Every year now, the pre-monsoon heat (the hottest time of year in South Asia with temperatures well over 40°C) starts earlier & lasts longer - due to human-induced climate change - exposing 1billion people to deadly heat. @wwattribution.bsky.social www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
two maps and two timeseries showing the extreme heat conditions in South Asia in April 2026.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Rainfall intensity matters as much as how much rain falls. New in Nature: Corey Lesk and I show that daily-scale concentration of precipitation dries the land over the long-run, an effect as strong as total precipitation is climatological wetting. Paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature
Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
The electricity-to-gas price ratio is the biggest barrier to electrifying European homes. Heat pumps deliver ~3 units of heat per unit of electricity. The maths works in Sweden but not everywhere. Much of gap is policy. More analysis in my forthcoming Substack newsletter janrosenow.substack.com
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Hi everyone, in the course of NorESM development for CMIP7 - we've had need to do some rapid benchmarking and diagnostics. To this end, I've made a couple of tools which might be useful for the wider community - python ports of ncview and CMAT. /thread/
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Yann Quilcaille @yannquilcaille.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
At #EGU2026, presenting the paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41... We had advanced two frontiers of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA): - Attribution studies focus on few events, we covered all reported heatwaves. - Source attribution for EEA meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/EGU26-...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
Abstract EGU26-13939
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊 More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Science | AAAS
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 14/04/2026
If you use the R package DLNM to estimate excess risk attributable to environmental conditions (e.g., heat/cold), I've rewritten the package in python: github.com/aedessler/py...
github.com
GitHub - aedessler/pydlnm: python version of R package DLNM from Gaspirrini et al. (https://github.com/gasparrini/dlnm)
python version of R package DLNM from Gaspirrini et al. (https://github.com/gasparrini/dlnm) - aedessler/pydlnm
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
For the first time ever, heat pumps outsold gas boilers in Germany in 2025. 48% of all new heating systems installed last year were heat pumps. Gas fell to just 39%. A decade ago, heat pumps had a 7% market share. The transformation has been remarkable.
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
gmd.copernicus.org
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
Ecuador could have prevented the massive impacts from hydropower drought it suffered in 2024 if it had gone all-in on wind-solar. Doing these investments now will prevent such damages from happening again in the near-future Check out our latest paper led by Sebastian Sterl in @natwater.nature.com 🧵
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
Climate change is leading to many impacts, but not every impact is caused by climate change. For example, we find limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa doi.org/10.1088/1748...
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Infectious Diseases @infectiousdz.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Not everything is the climate. Malaria is surging — yes, as the climate changes, but also with conflict, displacement, and budget cuts. And crucially: Anopheles stephensi, an invasive mosquito species is reclaiming urban areas where malaria was once eliminated. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa
Limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa, Erazo, Diana, Pietroiusti, Rosa, Ghisbain, Guillaume, Colón-González, Felipe J, Pironon, Samuel, Van Bortel, Wim, Mengel, Matthias, Frieler, Katja, Thiery, Wim, Dellicour, Simon
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Saudi Arabia, Russia and others yet again blocking progress on climate science ... > IPCC: ‘Frustrating and disappointing’ meeting leaves AR7 timeline in deadlock #climatecrisis @carbonbrief.org www.carbonbrief.org/ipcc-frustra...
carbonbrief.org
IPCC: ‘Frustrating and disappointing’ meeting leaves AR7 timeline in deadlock - Carbon Brief
Governments are still at loggerheads over the timeline for publishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate...
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Reto Knutti @retoknutti.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The last 11 years were the hottest on record, which is unsurprising and worrying at the same time, because we don’t fully understand why. Thread... 1/n
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I don't think people fully appreciate how apocalyptic things are for US science. I haven't had any new funding since 2024, but I'm still ok since typical grants are for three years. This means next year I will be completely out of funding and will have to fire everyone in the lab. It's not great.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Time and time again surveys of heat pump owners show that the vast majority of people are happy with their heat pump. Here's data from Canada, a place known for its very warm winters. cleanenergycanada.org/report/heat-...
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
🔥 PhD position alert ➡️ We are looking for a PhD candidate interested in studying spatially compounding fire risk and its drivers under climate change. Details & applications👇 recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/33...
recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com
PhD Researcher (f/m/x) – Spatially compounding fire weather extremes across Europe in a changing climate
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
In a new Nature study, we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. The findings reinforce the urgency of limiting warming well below 2°C. Together with @erichfischer.bsky.social @janasillmann.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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nvanlipzig.bsky.social @nvanlipzig.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
PhD opportunity at KU Leuven Antropogenic influences on East African high impact rainfall Apply for this job no later than April 22, 2026 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Co-supervision by Kwinten Van Weverberg Universiteit Gent and Remko Uijlenhoet TU Delft Photo by Tai Pfeifer on Unsplash
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
March in Western North America is deadly hot, completely above temperatures that would have been possible without climate change from burning oil, coal and gas. New record shatteringly rapid @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/record-shatt...
two images describing the March heat wave, left a map showing temperature anomalies, right, the seasonal cycle and the anomalies this year
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Two technologies that competed for the future of heating and transport. The race is over. In 2025, 19m heat pumps were sold globally. Hydrogen-ready boilers: 237 units. The picture in transport is identical. 21m electric vehicles were sold last year. Hydrogen fuel cell cars: roughly 10,000 units.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
When I started working on UK energy in 2007, fossil fuels provided ~78% of electricity. Coal alone: 34%. Wind & solar: less than 2%. Today: wind & solar 33%, fossil fuels 28%, coal 0%. The chart below tells the story better than words can.
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