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Jakob Zscheischler

@zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
1.8K followers 905 following 7 posts

Earth system scientist @UFZ & Prof @TUdresden, expert on compound weather and climate events

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Reposted by Jakob Zscheischler
Elisabeth Vogel @elisabethclimate.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
What happens when heatwaves or droughts affect several of the key wheat producing regions at the same time? Our new ERL paper explores the impacts on global wheat production and trade, and identifies countries most vulnerable to production and export shocks. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
The impacts of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on global wheat production and trade
The impacts of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on global wheat production and trade, Vogel, Elisabeth, Sweet, Lily-belle, Ribeiro, Andreia F S, Mora, Camille J, Johnson, Fiona, Zscheischler, Jakob
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Emma Monk @monkemma.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
It was inevitable, wasn't it🙄 Of course the Telegraph would run with something like this👇 So let's remove some of the rose-tinted spectacles and also look at some of that data comparing 1976 with modern heat waves Because the 1976 nostalgia porn is wearing a bit thin at this stage 🧵1/23
Telegraph headiline:

"Heatwave hysterics wouldn't have lasted a day in 1976", overlaid with a bold “MONK DEBUNKED” stamp.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 14/05/2026
To keep track of the rapidly growing field of attribution research, Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has influenced extreme weather. Explore the interactive map here ⬇️ interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
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Jakob Zscheischler @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
In our new paper in Science Advances, we show that AI-based forecasting models are not yet very good at predicting record-breaking events
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Physics-based models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Physics-based models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes
Physics-based models still outperform artificial intelligence-based weather models in forecasting record-breaking extreme events.
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UFZ @ufz.de · 26/03/2026
Extreme Klimafolgen sind auch bei 2 Grad Erwärmung möglich! Das zeigt eine Studie von #UFZ et al. Bislang wurden extreme Klimafolgen oft mit sehr hohen globalen Erwärmungsniveaus von 3 oder 4°C in Verbindung gebracht... @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social @bevacquae.bsky.social www.ufz.de/index.php?de...
Ernteausfälle durch Dürre ©André Künzelmann UFZ
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 25/03/2026
NEW – Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org w/ comment from @bevacquae.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/xRDSktf
A resident walks through inundated streets in Nong Khai city, Thailand. Credit: Adryel Talamantes / Alamy Stock Photo
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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DER SPIEGEL @spiegel.de · 25/03/2026
Dürren und Starkregen könnten in Zukunft noch heftiger ausfallen als bislang angenommen, auch wenn die Welt das Zwei-Grad-Ziel schafft. Experten fordern deshalb neue Anpassungen und sagen, warum schon 2027 ein neuer Hitzerekord droht.
spiegel.de
Klimawandel: Extreme Folgen schon bei Erwärmung um zwei Grad möglich
Dürren und Starkregen könnten in Zukunft noch heftiger ausfallen als bislang angenommen, auch wenn die Welt das Zwei-Grad-Ziel schafft. Experten fordern deshalb neue Anpassungen und sagen, warum schon 2027 ein neuer Hitzerekord droht.
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Florian Hartig @florianhartig.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
We are hiring: 4 PhD Positions in Ecology / Data Science and one Ecological Data Scientist. For more information, see www.uni-regensburg.de/universitaet...
uni-regensburg.de
We are hiring: 4 PhD Positions in Ecology / Data Science and one Ecological Data Scientist
We are looking for 4 PhD Positions and one Scientific Programmer / Ecological Data Scientist to join the AG Hartig (Theoretical Ecology)
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/11/2025
Two exciting postdoc positions available! Historical windstorms - working with two insurance companies to explore UK wind risks: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai... Extreme event storylines - working as part of a EU collaboration on event attribution: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...
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Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
So, I hate to be this guy, but as the director of Yale’s new program on attribution science (!?), uh, most of the commentary on Bluesky about Hurricane Melissa and climate change has been… not quite right
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
This is a good corrective to the BS narrative flowing through the Pielke/AEI/NYP/EID/DOE nexus. Their argument is designed so that we can never ever attribute extreme events to emissions - even singular events that would have *never* [for some suitable finite approximation] have happened before.
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Jakob Zscheischler @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Herzlichen Glückwunsch! Eine sehr verdiente Auszeichnung für eine herausragende Wissenschaftlerin und ausgezeichnete Mentorin!
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Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 05/09/2025
I had an engagement with blogger, failed California gubernatorial candidate, and self-identified reporter Michael Shellenberger this past week, which started out being about this new paper being heralded by climate skeptics as disproving global sea-level acceleration. (LONG 🧵)
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Jakob Zscheischler @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Our new study on how large floods will change in Europe under climate change, led by @bfang.bsky.social, with @bevacquae.bsky.social
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Jonas Jägermeyr @jonasjaegermeyr.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
I am looking for a Postdoc to join my team at @climate.columbia.edu and NASA GISS. We will be working with Corteva Agrisceince and advance our understanding of historical and future crop breeding using crop models. Exciting and ambitious, please share! academic.careers.columbia.edu#!/168193
academic.careers.columbia.edu
Academic Search and Recruiting
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes Preprint arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724 with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke
arxiv.org
Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to ...
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ScaDS.AI Dresden/Leipzig @scadsai.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
🏅Outstanding Publication! What if #ExtremeFloods are driven by compounding factors? Using #LightGBM + #SHAP to quantify how rainfall, soil moisture, snowpack & temperature interact, this study reveals "The Secret Network of Extreme Floods" 🔗: scads.ai/the-secret-network-of-extr…
A publication announcement card featuring a blue “PUBLICATION” label at the top left, the bold blue title “Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods” centered, the authors Shijie Jiang, Larisa Tarasova, Guo Yu, and Jakob Zscheischler listed below, and the ScaDS.AI Dresden Leipzig logo in the bottom left corner.
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sifangfeng.bsky.social @sifangfeng.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
To what extent does human-induced climate change contribute to global extreme wildfires? In our latest study, we quantified the contribution of human-induced climate change to over 700 observed extreme wildfires globally. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes
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Andreia F. S. Ribeiro @afsribeiro.bsky.social · 04/05/2025
On International Firefighters’ Day, happy to share our latest research about challenges in international firefighting cooperation due to increasing fire weather season overlap between Australia and North America. doi.org/10.1029/2024...
doi.org
Increasing Fire Weather Season Overlap Between North America and Australia Challenges Firefighting Cooperation
A warmer climate increases overlapping fire risk between North America and Australia, potentially compromising firefighting cooperation Variability of Australian fire weather dominates the risk o...
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Lily-belle Sweet @lilybellesweet.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Transdisciplinary coordination is essential for advancing agricultural modelling with machine learning. The opportunities are great, but to avoid pitfalls, we need to establish benchmarks, evaluation criteria and best practices. Our perspective: www.cell.com/one-earth/fu... @cp-oneearth.bsky.social
cell.com
Transdisciplinary coordination is essential for advancing agricultural modeling with machine learning
Crop models play a key role in understanding and improving the climate-change resilience of food systems. If appropriately used, machine learning can help tackle some of the critical challenges of agr...
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UFZ @ufz.de · 28/04/2025
#Klimawandel erhöht das Risiko gleichzeitiger Waldbrände, zeigen deutsche und australische Forschende in ihrer Studie. Die sog. Feuerwetter überlappen sich zunehmend und erschweren so staatenübergreifende Hilfe. #UFZ @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social @afsribeiro.bsky.social www.ufz.de/index.php?de...
©marcobarone / AdobeStock
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Aletta Bonn @alettabonn.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
🎺 #job alert: Are you interested in #Biodiversity and #Health linkages? Come and work with us in our lab at @ufz.de @idiv-research.bsky.social apply online via UFZ recruitment portal until 18 May 2025 👇 lnkd.in/eQmcKDQU
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 11/04/2025
Our 2024 climate chronicles have just been published! Check out the Collection: www.nature.com/collections/... Thread below details all articles and their take-home messages. [1/n]
nature.com
Climate chronicles
Climate chronicles brings together Nature Reviews Earth & Environment's annual series of 'Year in Review' articles.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/03/2025
Looking for a new postdoc position in climate? Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates. Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project: elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com
Postdoctoral Researcher in impact attribution from extreme weather events
We seek a postdoctoral research associate (PDRA) for a 33-month position to work on the UK NERC-funded pushing the frontiers grant “Attributable impacts from extreme weather events”.
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Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 10/03/2025
If someone would like to do a postdoc with me on the Stanford campus aimed at thinking about allocation of resources across different domains (climate, environment, food, health, education, wealth transfer, etc) to improve human welfare (balancing near-term and long-term goals), please contact me.
View from Rockefeller Bellagio conference center.
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Thomas Frölicher @froeltho.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
📢 Postdoc Opportunity: Ocean Tipping Points & Impacts! We're hiring a postdoc in my group at the University of Bern, Switzerland, to study ocean tipping points and their impacts. The position is part of HEurope project TipESM (@tipesm.bsky.social). Feel free to reach out with any questions. 🌊
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 08/03/2025
Interested in volunteering to be an author for the IPCC AR7 Working Groups? Nomination process open until 17th April: apps.ipcc.ch/nominations/...
apps.ipcc.ch
IPCC Nominations - Authors
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Douglas Maraun @dmaraun.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Like to develop your own research profile? Work on a permanent contract in a diverse, inspiring & supportive work environment? We seek to appoint a scientist working on climate hazards for risk assessments & on data management & analysis. Join us at Wegener Center: jobs.uni-graz.at/en/jobs/6015...
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Tagesschau Bot @tagesschau.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
1,5 Grad-Schwelle möglicherweise dauerhaft überschritten #Klimawandel #Erderwärmung #1,5Grad
tagesschau.de
1,5 Grad-Schwelle möglicherweise dauerhaft überschritten
Im Jahr 2024 lag die Erderwärmung erstmals 1,5 Grad Celsius über dem vorindustriellen Niveau: Laut einer neuen Studie ist das keine Ausnahme, sondern ein langfristiger Trend.
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Adam Sobel @adamsobel.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
People may not understand just how important federal science research funding is to the prosperity of the nation. I tried to explain it, because it's under unprecedented and direct assault.
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DER SPIEGEL @spiegel.de · 10/02/2025
Das 1,5-Grad-Ziel ist gefährdet, wie aktuelle Berechnungen zeigen. Trotzdem rät Klimaforscher Emanuele Bevacqua, daran festzuhalten: Noch sei es möglich, die Erderwärmung zu verlangsamen.
spiegel.de
Studie zu den Pariser Klimazielen: Hat die 1,5-Grad-Ära begonnen, Herr Bevacqua?
Das 1,5-Grad-Ziel ist gefährdet, wie aktuelle Berechnungen zeigen. Trotzdem rät Klimaforscher Emanuele Bevacqua, daran festzuhalten: Noch sei es möglich, die Erderwärmung zu verlangsamen.
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Peter Jelinek @peterjelinek.eurosky.social · 10/02/2025
Was der Klimawissenschaftler Emanuele Bevacqua sagt. Wäre doch mal schön, wenn wir dazu eine Talkshow hätten, oder @zdfde.bsky.social ?
"Die Klimakrise muss oberste Priorität auf der politischen Agenda haben, sowohl auf nationaler als auch auf internationaler Ebene. Für die anstehende Bundestagswahl ist  da allerdings noch deutlich Luft nach oben", sagt der Klimawissenschaftler Emanuele Bevacqua.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
In Nature Climate Change, we show that a year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. @natclimchange.bsky.social
nature.com
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit - Nature Climate Change
What a first year with temperature 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline implies for long-term temperature goals is unclear. Here the authors show that such a first year above the baseline is highl...
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Jakob Zscheischler @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Excellent thread on our new paper in Nature Climate Change on what a year above 1.5°C means for the Paris Agreements lower temperature target
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Mariana Madruga de Brito @mdebrito.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
🚨 We’ll soon be hiring a 3-year postdoc to join our Leipzig lab on climate discourses 🌍🔍 Our Working group bridges #NLP, social science, and environmental research to explore how climate change, public discourse & political action interact. Stay tuned! @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social
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Hayley Fowler @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
I'm currently advertising for 2 post-doc positions: (1) role of natural climate variability in modulating climate projections (2) developing a weather generator for UK and Ireland for climate projections - jobs.ncl.ac.uk/job/Newcastl...
jobs.ncl.ac.uk
Research Assistant/Associate in Climate
Research Assistant/Associate in Climate
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Altmetric @altmetric.com · 19/12/2024
THREAD This Is The Story Of The The Pernicious Rise of AI-Generated Papers and their Online Impact An Incomplete History Told In The Voice of Documentarian Adam Curtis 1/31
Adam Curtis Title Card: We Too Are Trapped In A System. Text over a background of a large office building
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Peter Watson @peteragwatson.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
PhD opportunity at Bristol: "Machine Learning for Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate". Please share with potential applicants. Deadline is Jan 31 12:00. www.bristol.ac.uk/geography/co... www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar...
Example of realistic rainfall simulations generated by a machine learning model over England and Wales (Addison et al., 2024)
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Reto Knutti @retoknutti.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Redrawing the global warming stripes. In a new paper led by Sebastian Sippel published in Nature today, we show that the early 20th century global ocean surface temperatures and thereby global mean surface temperature were warmer than previously thought. Thread... (1/13)
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Robert McSweeney @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org · 18/11/2024
Today, @carbonbrief.org has published the latest, and most comprehensive, update to our interactive map of extreme weather attribution. The redesigned map now includes almost 750 extreme events and trends from more than 600 studies. interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-... THREAD 1/10
interactive.carbonbrief.org
Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief
Attribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
📢Global Carbon Budget 2024📢 Despite some predicting a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, we estimate growth of 0.8% [-0.3% to 1.9%] in 2024. Maybe a peak next year? Is it all bad news, or can we find some good news? essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... 1/
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
We Europeans need to practice survival in a rapidly changing climate - my opinion piece, focussed on Spain, but could equally have been written 3 years ago after the deadly floods in Germany . We've not learned enough & that costs lives and livelihoods. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Why did so many die in Spain? Because Europe still hasn't accepted the realities of extreme weather | Friederike Otto
Severe flooding is, unfortunately, inevitable. What isn’t inevitable is how ready we are, says Friederike Otto of World Weather Attribution
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Flavio Lehner @climateflavors.bsky.social · 27/10/2024
New perspective paper on how weather/climate extreme event attribution could be combined with the science of disaster risk reduction to make it more useful - includes case studies. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution - IOPscienceSearch
Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution, Aglaé Jézéquel, Ana Bastos, Davide Faranda, Joyce Kimutai, Natacha Le Grix, Anna M Wilson, Samuel Rufat, Theodore G Shepherd, Rupert F Stuart-Smith, Anne F Van Loon, Emanuele Bevacqua, Fabio D’Andrea, Flavio Lehner, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M Ramos, Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler
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Benjamin Cook @dustybowl.bsky.social · 23/10/2024
Climate change intensified the 2022 European drought "human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation" www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought - Nature Geoscience
An attribution analysis using observations, hydrological models and climate models suggests that both direct and lagged effects of climate warming contributed to Europe experiencing the highest observ...
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Robb Jnglin Wills @robbjnglinwills.bsky.social · 09/09/2024
🚨Postdoc in Climate Dynamics at ETH Zurich🚨 We are hiring a postdoc to work on understanding projected future changes in the atmospheric circulation and climate. The scope is broad, with flexibility to work on questions aligned with your interests/experience. jobs.ethz.ch/job/view/JOP...
jobs.ethz.ch
Postdoc Position in Climate Dynamics
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Charlie Koven @ckoven.bsky.social · 23/08/2024
Great new paper by Gordon Bonan and others on the deep historical legacies that limit how we think about the biosphere within the climate system, and the need to more fully represent diverse ways of understanding nature in the face of climate change. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
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Jonathan Wider @jonathanwider.bsky.social · 16/05/2024
A preprint I’ve been working on together with Olivier Pasche, Zhongwei Zhang, @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social, and Sebastian Engelke is out: arxiv.org/abs/2404.17652. We compared ML-based weather models and ECMWF’s HRES in case studies on 3 recent high-impact extreme events! Summary & a few thoughts 🧵👇
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 19/03/2024
I have a commentary in Nature on our disquieting inability to work out why 2023 was so warm. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory
Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed. Taking into account all known factors, the pl...
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