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Wim Thiery

@wimthiery.eu
838 followers 474 following 137 posts

Climate scientist modelling extreme events in a changing climate, Full Professor @vubrussel.bsky.social. Previously research fellow @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social and @ethz.ch. Website: sites.google.com/site/wimthiery

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Reposted by Wim Thiery
Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d
First page of the article 'Equitable cooperation deepens the solution space for high ambition pathways' by Setu Pelz and eleven co-authors, published open access in Environmental Research Letters 21 (2026) 184019 on 18 September 2026. The page shows the author list, affiliations and the abstract.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Current [El Nino] forecasts suggest that the 2026 event could push global mean surface temperatures in 2027 to almost 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels" 😱 Good rundown of El Nino impacts via @zekehausfather.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
Please see the 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐛 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 linked below for further details. Don't hesitate to 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜, 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬. hydr.vub.be/media/attach...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞: 8 October 2026. Early applications are encouraged. 📩 Apply by sending a 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐏𝐃𝐅 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐂𝐕 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐱𝐢𝐦𝐮𝐦 𝐨𝐧𝐞-𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧/𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 to bclimate_admin@vub.be, with the subject line “𝐂𝐋𝐈𝐌𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐖 𝐃𝐍 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧”.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
📍 𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 📅 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭: Ideally January 2027 ⏳ 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 4 years 🎓 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐞: MSc degree or PhD; interest/background in climate science and/or litigation; strong organizational and communication skills 🌍 𝐄𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭: International and interdisciplinary
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
The successful candidate will play a central role in coordinating this international project, including supporting 𝟏𝟓 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝟏𝟐 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 (hired in 2027), organizing project activities, contributing to the litigation help desk & working on climate litigation research.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
CLIMALAW is an EU-funded Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 bringing together climate scientists, legal researchers, lawyers, NGOs and other stakeholders to strengthen the links between 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
📢 𝐉𝐨𝐛 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲: 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫 – 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 (4 years) We are looking for a 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫 to join the 𝐂𝐋𝐈𝐌𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐖 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 (𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐚𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧) at the @vubrussel.bsky.social
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 24/09/2026
The FUTURA project will bridge IAM, SCM, ESM, RCM, IM and emulator communities working on climate projections in Europe. Stay tuned for many exciting research and science-policy interfacing in the coming years! @hydr-vub.bsky.social
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This Chart is striking. Strongest El Nino’s on record VS the forecasts from our best seasonal models. Historically the strongest El Nino’s dating back 170 years peaked with a monthly ocean anomaly in the mid-high 2’s. Now 9 of 10 of our national models have 4°C + for late fall. #elnino 1/
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Abigail Swann, PhD @ecoclimatelab.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
We have a new paper on the response of land carbon to zero, declining, and negative emissions of CO2 across Earth System Models! w/ @ckoven.bsky.social @cristiproist.bsky.social @rosieafisher.bsky.social @benmsanderson.bsky.social & more (1/6) esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
esd.copernicus.org
Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions across Earth system models
Abstract. Land carbon sinks are responsible for removing about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and make up approximately half of total global carbon sinks. Uncertainty in the response of lan...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 05/09/2026
@vubrussel.bsky.social haalt 4 Amerikaanse klimaatonderzoekers naar Brussel www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/20...
vrt.be
VUB haalt 4 Amerikaanse klimaatonderzoekers naar Brussel  | VRT NWS Nieuws
De Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) versterkt het klimaatonderzoek met de komst van 4 gerenommeerde onderzoekers uit de Verenigde Staten. Valerie Trouet, David O. Prevatt, Sol Kim en Kirsten Heikkinen...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 22/07/2026
Europees transportsysteem dreigt steeds vaker in de knoop te raken door weerextremen vrtnws.be/p.w79VW8YpM
vrtnws.be
Zal Europees transportsysteem steeds vaker in de knoop raken door weerextremen? | VRT NWS Nieuws
De transportinfrastructuur in Europa is niet klaar voor de klimaatverandering. Dat blijkt uit een nieuwe studie waaraan onder meer de VUB meewerkte. "We zien dat wegen, spoorwegen, havens, luchthavens...
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
“So next time someone tells you Canada’s fires can be solved by raking the forests, you can point out that the thing filling their sky with smoke is a lightning-struck, drought-primed boreal forest doing what a warming climate is making it do more and more often.”
theclimatebrink.com
Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management
Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/07/2026
With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....
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John Morales @johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Recent Belgian Heatwave Declared Deadliest on Record: “the situation during the peak weekend was so severe that excess mortality surpassed even the worst weekend of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between June 22nd and June 27th, a staggering 1,747 excess deaths were recorded.” #Belgium #heatwave #europe
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 09/07/2026
June 2026 data from Copernicus ECMWF offered another stark reminder of our changing #climate: - Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record - Globally it was the 2nd warmest June according to ERA5 Our climate system is continuing to accumulate heat .
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 06/07/2026
El Niño continues to grow, with sea surface temperatures clearly at record high levels for the time of year... 📈 Sign up for our next monthly briefing to learn more, including Q/A: climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... We'll also have an update on 2026's U.S. billion-dollar disasters so far.
Line graph time series of daily Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures from 1982 to 2026. This year is currently a record high for this time of year. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1, and the graphic is created by Climate Central.
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Prof. Sonia I Seneviratne @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
🥵 Europe has been affected by a terrible heatwave, with impacts across the continent & record-breaking temperatures in many countries. The @ipcc.bsky.social #AR6 conclusions show that that heat extremes have become more intense & more frequent across the world due to human-induced climate change.
Changes in temperature extremes as function of global warming, from Fig. SPM.6 of IPCC AR6 WGI (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf); based on data from IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 11 (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf)
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 26/06/2026
What is the future of summers in England? Our choices matter. A high-emissions future will commit our children and grandchildren to live in a world where the summers of 1976 & 2025 are cold. A global net-zero emissions future means that we can stabilise the climate & those summers will be normal.
England average summer temperatures in a high emissions futureEngland average summer temperatures in a global net-zero emissions future
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
People will die this week. The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F). For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.
Map of forecasted temperatures at 5 PM on Tuesday 6/23 from the ICON model.  Image source: https://www.ventusky.com/#p=48.1;-8.4;5&t=20260623/1500
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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave.
2 m temperature weekly mean anomaly from ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast. The colors are red in Europe, with > 10 °C above normal over France.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/06/2026
A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 15/06/2026
The emergency events database, EM-DAT, must be preserved as a global public good Our new commentary in the Int. Journal of Public Health with N. Speybroeck, I. Noy, A. Kettner, R. Below, G. Messori, V. Wathelet, @ajezeq.bsky.social, D. Delforge, D. van Niekerk www.ssph-journal.org/journals/int...
ssph-journal.org
SSPH+ | The emergency events database, EM-DAT, must be preserved as a global public good
More broadly, planetary health has emerged as an important perspective in public health, reflecting growing concern about the health impacts of climate and e...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 11/06/2026
With June runs in for all the ENSO models and the "spring predictability barrier" mostly behind us, the odds of a record-breaking El Niño event this fall have continued to increase. Here are all the latest runs (including today's C3S updates):
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 07/06/2026
I just want to point out that temperatures over land (where we all live) have warmed over twice as fast as ocean surface temperatures. The latest update through 2025 is... not great 🥴 Graphic created by www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temp...
Line graph time series of land surface temperature and sea surface temperatures from 1880 to 2025 relative to a 1880-1920 baseline. Land areas are warming at 0.28°C/decade from 1970-2010, while sea surface temperatures are warming at 0.11°C decade. Graphic shows the linear trends over these periods. Land temperatures reached well over 2.0°C above the 1880-1920 baseline in 2025. Data is from NASA/GISS GISTEMPv4.
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Nature @nature.com · 02/06/2026
The Amazon rainforest could be at a tipping point go.nature.com/4dVqWvY
go.nature.com
Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest
Amazonian deforestation is altering atmospheric moisture transport; as a result, even low levels of global warming could trigger dieback of most of the remaining forest.
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Hard to believe I’m even writing this. Meteorological summer hasn’t even begun, yet Paris, France has already logged more days above 32°C than its annual average.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
JUST DROPPED: For years I thought industrial electrification potential was limited. How wrong I was. Engineering studies point to 90%+. Long term scenarios support this. Technology is much further ahead than we think. Question is whether policy keeps up. janrosenow.substack.com/p/industry-f...
janrosenow.substack.com
Industry: from hard-to-abate to ready-to-electrify
How far can industry run on electricity?Much ffurther and faster than the 'hard-to-abate' label suggests.
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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
In response to recent misinformation about the use of scenarios in IPCC reports: the IPCC does not conduct its own research, run models or make measurements. The IPCC’s role is to assess the available scientific, peer-reviewed literature relevant to climate change: www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/i...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/05/2026
Burning fossil fuels has made this heatwave hotter. True for the UK today, and everywhere else, all of the time.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 19/05/2026
The paper describing the ISIMIP3b simulation protocol and climate-related forcings from CMIP6 is now available in @egu.eu GMD. Encyclopedic reference work led by Katja Frieler and the ISIMIP core team @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. What an effort! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
gmd.copernicus.org
Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
Abstract. This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs), i.e. change in climate comprising the atmosphere and the ocean, coastal water levels, and atmospheric composition (CO2 and methane c...
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Every year now, the pre-monsoon heat (the hottest time of year in South Asia with temperatures well over 40°C) starts earlier & lasts longer - due to human-induced climate change - exposing 1billion people to deadly heat. @wwattribution.bsky.social www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
two maps and two timeseries showing the extreme heat conditions in South Asia in April 2026.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Rainfall intensity matters as much as how much rain falls. New in Nature: Corey Lesk and I show that daily-scale concentration of precipitation dries the land over the long-run, an effect as strong as total precipitation is climatological wetting. Paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature
Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
The electricity-to-gas price ratio is the biggest barrier to electrifying European homes. Heat pumps deliver ~3 units of heat per unit of electricity. The maths works in Sweden but not everywhere. Much of gap is policy. More analysis in my forthcoming Substack newsletter janrosenow.substack.com
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Hi everyone, in the course of NorESM development for CMIP7 - we've had need to do some rapid benchmarking and diagnostics. To this end, I've made a couple of tools which might be useful for the wider community - python ports of ncview and CMAT. /thread/
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Yann Quilcaille @yannquilcaille.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
At #EGU2026, presenting the paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41... We had advanced two frontiers of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA): - Attribution studies focus on few events, we covered all reported heatwaves. - Source attribution for EEA meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/EGU26-...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
Abstract EGU26-13939
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 28/04/2026
Thank you for sharing; in our study we find that lifetime exposure to climate extremes is escalating very rapidly already for current generations, hence mitigation is very much to our own personal gain (on top of gains for future generations). recent update on this www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes - Nature
Climate models, impact models and demographic data are used to estimate the number of people projected to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme climate events across multiple dimension...
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊 More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Science | AAAS
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 14/04/2026
If you use the R package DLNM to estimate excess risk attributable to environmental conditions (e.g., heat/cold), I've rewritten the package in python: github.com/aedessler/py...
github.com
GitHub - aedessler/pydlnm: python version of R package DLNM from Gaspirrini et al. (https://github.com/gasparrini/dlnm)
python version of R package DLNM from Gaspirrini et al. (https://github.com/gasparrini/dlnm) - aedessler/pydlnm
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
For the first time ever, heat pumps outsold gas boilers in Germany in 2025. 48% of all new heating systems installed last year were heat pumps. Gas fell to just 39%. A decade ago, heat pumps had a 7% market share. The transformation has been remarkable.
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
gmd.copernicus.org
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
📰 #Press release: press.vub.ac.be/wind-and-sol... @vubrussel.bsky.social @hydr-vub.bsky.social @paulmunoz.bsky.social @luispineda.bsky.social
press.vub.ac.be
Wind and solar power to keep the lights on in Ecuador
Empty reservoirs caused disrupted energy supply
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
👉 #Article available open-access at www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Variable renewables fortify Ecuador’s power system against recurrences of drought-driven energy crises - Nature Water
Ecuador’s reliance on hydropower led to an energy crisis following two failed rainy seasons, highlighting the need for alternative solutions. Here the authors demonstrate that integrating solar and wi...
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
⚡ Wind and solar power are often criticised for their supposed lack of #reliability and low “capacity credit” in discussions surrounding #energytransitions and #clean #electricity. Our results counter that narrative.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
💧 The seasonal nature of #wind and #solar energy would help extend the availability of #hydroelectric #power stations—thereby reducing, compared to the #crisis year of 2024: - 📉 the #energy #deficit by 90% - 📉 the peak #capacity #deficit by 50%.
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
Our research team (@hydr-vub.bsky.social and Universidad Yachay Tech) has made a surprising discovery: the deployment of wind 💨 and solar ☀️ power plants, at the scale of hundreds of MW, would substantially improve the #resilience of Ecuador’s electricity system in the face of #droughts
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
The closure of the Strait of #Hormuz is not the only #EnergyCrisis we have seen recently. In the drought-stricken year 2024, #Ecuador 🇪🇨 faced an unprecedented crisis of a different kind. The country’s #hydropower reservoirs ran almost dry, & Ecuadorians had to endure #grid #blackouts for >12h a day
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Wim Thiery @wimthiery.eu · 08/04/2026
Ecuador could have prevented the massive impacts from hydropower drought it suffered in 2024 if it had gone all-in on wind-solar. Doing these investments now will prevent such damages from happening again in the near-future Check out our latest paper led by Sebastian Sterl in @natwater.nature.com 🧵
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