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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 16h

The East Pacific has been supercharged this #hurricane season, and is now in record ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) territory. It is expected to stay busy the next couple of weeks. If it accumulates another 50-60 units, it will break the record set in 2018. My guess is it probably will. #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 19h

It’s official: It’s now the hottest El Niño ever recorded and we are still 2 months away from peak, with nowhere to go but UP! So what does it mean for winter across Florida & the southern US? Here’s the details… (records go back 170+ years) #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here’s how much the Eastern Pacific has changed since January. The Equatorial region warms/ cools due to El Niño La Niña cycles. ENSO 3.4 has warmed ~4C since Jan.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It’s astonishing how far ahead the 2026 El Niño is. The red line is 2026. The other warmest El Niños are the colored lines. It’s not even playing in the same league. Some of this is of course due to this natural El Niño cycle on top of long-term ocean warming… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

JUST IN: Today El Niño Broke its Record Hottest Temperature Ever! 🥵 Today the El Niño region surpassed 2015 for the highest temp ever measured in the El Niño (3.4) region. It comes 2 months earlier than typical peak (late Nov/ Dec)…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Busy, busy around the World now. #Nolo near Hawaii, #Polo near #Cabo and #Noreaster near NYC

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Coral scientist @BillPrecht : Most of the loss of coral worldwide is due to climate change. Climate change is the existential threat to coral: youtu.be/sZBeEeV8P_g?...

youtu.be

Harnessing Inspiration to Protect Coral Reefs | Mr. William F. Precht | TEDxSUNY Oswego

YouTube video by TEDx Talks

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Major Nor’easter! Also, Cat 5 Hurricane #Polo in context. And “Cool” #Florida weekend! It’s all packed into this short video. #noreaster

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Supercharged Pacific, Super Slow Atlantic!🌀 It’s truly night& day in the Atlantic vs the Pacific, with Atlantic Cyclone Energy at a record low, while the Pacific is vying for a record high! ACE is the accumulated cyclone energy when combining all the storm’s intensity and longevity in each basin.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Hurricane-like Eye in Major Nor’easter forces cool air south into #Florida this weekend! Strongest gusts remain offshore, but power outages and coastal flooding are a concern. #noreaster

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

99.9th Percentile + The rapid intensification of #Polo sits solidly in 4-sigma (standard deviation) territory consistent with the top 5 of 4,500 RI storms globally since 1980.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Looking at all cases globally of both Rapid Intensification and Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI), you can see where #Polo falls on that scale (magenta star). It’s the 5th most intense in the NOAA record since 1980. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Hurricane #Polo exhibited Extreme Rapid Intensification - a term for strengthening more than 50 knots (58mph) in 24 hours. Polo increased 110mph in 24 hours, the 5th fastest rate of intensification in NOAA’s Global Satellite record. Extreme rapid intensification (ERI) is becoming much more common 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

It’s official, the 2026 El Niño has broken a record for the highest ocean anomaly in 170+ years… Incredibly reaching that threshold a full 2 months ahead of 2015’s record of +3.02C set on Nov 18th. See that red line? That’s 2026. Every other bold line are the strongest El Niño’s on record. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Cool Florida Winter - But ironically Record Warm Earth! The Winter ahead looks cool in the Southern US. BUT importantly - NOT cold. It’s one of the only places on Earth that will be cooler than normal this winter. This map is called the Super Ensemble - it’s a mix of World’s best seasonal models 1/

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Covering Climate Now @coveringclimatenow.org · 17/09/2026

📣 CCNow is thrilled to announce the winners of the 2026 CCNow Journalism Awards! Our awards program honors excellent reporting on many critical dimensions of the climate story. Together, their work constitutes the leading edge of climate storytelling. ...🧵↓

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

*Earth’s Warmest Months in Millenia* Global Temperature Anomalies may reach +2°C this winter (above pre-industrial levels) for the first time in modern history, and very likely in over 100,000 years, before the last ice age… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Apologize for the Nostalgia folks… This is where Carl Sagan lived at @Cornell - I lived right across the Gorge from him. @sagan.bsky.social @profcarlsagan.bsky.social

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Hearing rumors of Gulf Development? Before the hype or misinformation gets out of control, let’s get ahead of it. Leveling with you: It’s “somewhat” possible in the 10-15 day range. Signal is modest/ medium at most. Not a strong signal. Conditions will only be marginally favorable… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

🌀 Time to start paying attention? 🌀 The latest models have a robust signal for development in the #Gulf in the 12-15 day range. Pictured here is the new Google Deep Mind AI Weather Next Ensemble version 3 (which came out in the last couple of weeks). But the Euro & GFS also have a solid signal 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The heat dome across the eastern US this week is record shattering. With perhaps the exception of the Spring heat dome in the West, the record breaking extent is the biggest swath I’ve seen all season. Follow along for some interesting comparisons… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Only .02° from the all-time El Niño record anomaly! Today we got to +3°C departure from the 1991-2020 average in the main (3.4) region. The record is 3.02°C in 2015… so conceivably we could break that in the next day or two. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

This Chart is striking. Strongest El Nino’s on record VS the forecasts from our best seasonal models. Historically the strongest El Nino’s dating back 170 years peaked with a monthly ocean anomaly in the mid-high 2’s. Now 9 of 10 of our national models have 4°C + for late fall. #elnino 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Ocean anomalies up to +14°F! While El Niño drives global weather patterns, its biggest impacts are arguably local in #Peru, #Ecuador and the #Galápagos Islands. The extreme warmth along the coast is disrupting one of the most productive ocean ecosystems on Earth. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

It’s astonishing to see this, even though we saw it coming months ago. White = 10°F + above normal in the El Niño regions. Its immense! In the air, a regional warming of 10° is no big deal. But in the ocean it’s immense! Think about how hard it is/ how long it takes to cool/ heat your pool. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The Ocean’s En Fuego! 15% of the oceans are record warm right now. Double the record of 7.3% set back in 2023. (data NOAA OISST) #elnino

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

🍂 Fall’s Falling Temperatures 🍂 Can’t ya tell, I’m desperate for some cooler weather Here’s the average drop from early September to late November. It varies from 10° in South #Florida to 50° near the Canadian border. #autumn🍁

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

It’s peak #hurricane season, and the Atlantic has been dead as a doornail. Sure, shear has been rampant due to El Niño. But it’s not just shear. The basin as a whole has been very “stable”, especially the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

It’s no contest! Comparing the Dust Bowl to Modern Warming. This summer was 2.5°F hotter globally than the summer of 1936. BUT the Dust Bowl heat was fierce and life-changing for many in the US. It’s a fascinating tale. Here’s more background on it all.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

‼️ Dust Bowl, left in the Dust! Climate contrarians love to cherry pick summer of 1936 in the US. But zoom out… Summer 1936 was about 1.36°C or 2.45°F cooler 🥶 globally, than 2026. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The Atlantic is hibernating 💤 through peak day of #HurricaneSeason2026. The accumulate energy from all storms combined (ACE) is by far the lowest in the satellite era. It’s 4.4 today - 58 is normal - we are at 8% of normal. The record year on this date was 1995 at 154 units… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

17% of Earth was record warm this summer. .07% was record cold. 242X more record warm. I’m sure it’s just chance…

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

🌊 Past & Future Evolution of an Enormous El Niño! Watch as the Pacific transitions from cool La Niña to the strongest El Niño ever seen, by redistributing massive amounts of heat from the deep W. Pacific to the East Pacific. This throws weather patterns off-kilter worldwide… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

2°C by early winter?! It’s possible, depending on what seasonal model you use. The US CFS model forecast’s a monthly peak mean global surface temperature of +2.1°C (above pre-industrial) in February. If so, it would be the first time the Earth has breached the 2C “monthly”average… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

🥵 🌍 Earth just had its hottest summer on record - Again. All 10 hottest summers in the last decade. Now some models say the +2C threshold (pre-industrial) may be breached (briefly) for the first full month in early 2027. Here’s the scoop… #elnino #climatechange

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

All the hottest Global summers have occurred in the last decade. It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change. Some years with an El Niño boost.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

JUST IN: preliminary calculations suggest Summer 2026 was Earth’s Hottest on Record 🥵 🌍 ERA-5 data reveals June-July-August 2026 was the hottest summer on record for the Globe. In fact, ALL the hottest summers have been in the last decade! Europe, the US, and the El Niño Ocean region. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

You can see over the last few days the ENSO 3.4 region has jumped upward. No surprise here. A westerly wind burst is doing what it does. We are now 2.9C above avg and what’s crazy is the next closest year on this date is 1997 at 1.9C… a full 1C behind 2026… 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

*Big El Niño Boost in next few weeks! Our already record El Niño is about to get a spike to “Historic”. Humans have never seen such an episode, so I’d expect some unprecedented events. A major push of west winds in the Tropical Pacific will surge warming. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

🌀Record Quiet Season 🤫 Please don’t tell anyone - we don’t want to jinx it - but so far it’s the record quietest Atlantic #hurricane season in the Satellite era and beyond. See that blue line on the bottom? That’s us. Let’s keep it there! Thanks, #ElNino wind shear! #hurricaneseason

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

🌊 Florida waters heating up! As people venture to the beach this weekend, you might notice it still feels like a bathtub. It has always been warm during summer, but wasn’t always quite this hot, for so long, years ago. Here’s Sea Surface Temperature trend - showing each year since 1982 1/

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

My Zero Carbon #ClimateAction @myzerocarbon.org · 31/08/2026

🎥 We must limit #Globalwarming to 1.5 degrees to avoid the worst of the #ClimateCrisis Time for #ClimateAction! What you’re gonna do?! PL RP this🎵 #video🩷💚💙 Full 3-min video ▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHCv... #Endfossilfuels #ClimateChange #climate #Klima #ClimateDisaster

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

🌀 Record Worth Breaking! Just one more week without a hurricane, and we break a 100+ year record for the latest forming hurricane - IF we even get one this year. The Atlantic has been laced with record storm shredding wind shear (red contours) in July and August. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

A Train of Tropical Cyclones traverse the Pacific, fueled by the history making El Niño. Cat 4 #Hurricane #Lowell’s track needs to be watched closely as it could be near or just West of the western Hawaiian Island chain in 4-5 days - likely as a less intense system by then. #hawaii

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

‼️ Breaking: 1000-YR Rainfall ‼️ This time from former Tropical Storm #Edouard which has dropped nearly 30 inches in Texas and it’s still raining hard! FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for #Hardin and #Tyler Counties in #Texas. Stay off flooded roads. #flood

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Fall’s Falling Temperatures. Please send help quickly! September has begun, and cooler air is on the distant horizon, but when do Florida’s temps start to drop? Here’s an overview for #Florida & across the US. #fallvibes #autumnvibes #autumn

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

The Pacific is a #hurricane making machine right now! El Niño hot water is doing its thing. #elnino #elniño

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Thanks @pbsnews.org for having me on to discuss El Niño and Climate Change. Two of my favorite science topics! #elnino #climatechange

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Latest #Hurricane on Record? Yes it’s possible, if not probable!! Can I get a 👏 for that?? The latest hurricane formation since 1966 (Satellite record) is Sept 11th in 2002. And since 1966 only 7 years did not have a hurricane form before September. 1/

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