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Justin S. Mankin

@jsmankin.bsky.social
2.1K followers 138 following 36 posts

climate scientist || documenting and predicting climate impacts || professor @dartmouth geography.dartmouth.edu/people/just… jsmankin.github.io

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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Pricing El Niño is not the same as preventing its loss of life. Yet, many of those acting on its forecasts are using them to move money, not people, out of harm’s way." My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...
science.org
Hedging El Niño isn’t the same as adapting to it
Record-setting warm waters slosh eastward across the tropical Pacific, forming El Niño. This recurrent climate pattern reconfigures severe weather worldwide, and with it, the global economy. Scientist...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"The amendment misconstrues the design and purpose of emissions scenarios; imposes an ad hoc evaluation standard that no emissions scenario ... can meet; [and] it would create confusion and errors into an assessment that already effectively and accurately communicates scenario dependence."
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Rainfall intensity matters as much as how much rain falls. New in Nature: Corey Lesk and I show that daily-scale concentration of precipitation dries the land over the long-run, an effect as strong as total precipitation is climatological wetting. Paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature
Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Come help us document, predict, and manage our planetary insult as a PROF Postdoctoral Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group at Dartmouth! App review begins 2/15/26, here: apply.interfolio.com/178090 Reach out to me with questions and colleagues, please share this widely.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Dartmouth is hiring climate science postdocs through the prestigious Provost's Fellowship! Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090 Applications are due February 15, 2026. Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me (mankin@dartmouth.edu) with questions.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Exciting postdoc opening @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social! Work at the intersection of climate science, heat impacts, and risk management with Klaus Keller (engineering) and me. Apply here, apply.interfolio.com/176582
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
The @ametsoc.org Climate Variability & Change (CVC) Committee is recruiting new members! If you’re passionate about advancing climate science and service, I encourage you to get involved. It is incredibly rewarding. Apply here: www.ametsoc.org/ams/get-invo...
ametsoc.org
Climate Variability and Change
The CVC committee divides among its members the responsibilities, which include organization of the Climate Variability and Change Symposium at the AMS annual meeting, various awards (AMS and STAC), s...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
EPA plans to roll back GHG reporting—just as we learn US transport emissions have cost the US economy $68B: zenodo.org/records/1708... The proposal isn't deregulation, it’s a tax on Americans through unchecked pollution.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
This important work is very consilient with our attribution of extreme heat to carbon majors in @nature.com earlier this year: tinyurl.com/nhffeezv It is a great thing for science when independent groups with independent methods come to the same conclusions.
nature.com
Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability
Nature - A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
With the EPA targeting the Endangerment Finding, @ccallahan45.bsky.social, Alex Gottlieb, & I conducted an end-to-end attribution of climate damages from U.S. power sector emissions. The result: $78 billion in climate losses to the U.S. economy over 1973–2023. See here: zenodo.org/records/1687...
Left: Annual-scale direct economic damages to the U.S. economy from the U.S. electric power sector emissions over the 1973-2023 period in billions of U.S. dollars benchmarked to the 2015 dollar value ($US2015). Right: Cumulative direct economic damages from U.S. power sector emissions, equivalent to the integral under the curve at the left.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Last year, Alex Gottlieb and I showed the concerning nonlinear snow loss with warming that occurs around -8°C (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). This year, we show why: it is a simple counting exercise of days above freezing. Our latest in @agu.org Water Resources Research: doi.org/10.1029/2024...
nature.com
Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss - Nature
Snowpack reconstructions for major river basins in the Northern Hemisphere reveal that the snowpack has declined in almost half of the basins, with roughly one-third of the declines attributable to hu...
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Flavio Lehner @climateflavors.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Please consider joining our #AGU session on beautifully complex Water-Energy-Carbon interactions with a broad scope from theory to applied science. Invited talks by Julia Green @juliakgreen.bsky.social and Gabe Kooperman.
Promotional graphic for the AGU25 conference session titled "B008 - Advances in Understanding Water-Energy-Carbon Interactions." It announces a call for abstracts due July 30, 2025, at 23:59 EDT. The central question posed is: "How do water-energy-carbon interactions shape terrestrial biosphere responses to global change?" Key topics include coupling of water-energy-carbon cycles, bridging scales and processes, climate change sensitivities and impacts, and applications for climate resilience. The image features headshots and affiliations of invited speakers Julia Green (University of Arizona) and Gabe Kooperman (University of Georgia), and conveners YanLan Liu (Ohio State), Justin Mankin (Dartmouth), Dan Gianotti (MIT), Flavio Lehner (Cornell), and Xiangtao Xu (Cornell). The background shows a scenic natural landscape with trees.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Come do a postdoc with our group at Dartmouth, documenting and projecting climate impacts! Applications will be evaluated until the position is filled. Salary, benefits, and other details here: apply.interfolio.com/168708 Reach out to me (mankin@dartmouth.edu) with questions.
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Eric Roston @eroston.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
OUT: You can’t connect extreme weather to climate change 5Mn AGO: You can’t connect extreme weather to fossil-fuel companies IN: 🎁🔗⤵️ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Scientists Tally Oil Majors’ Climate Damage With Eye to Legal Liability
New research breaks down economic losses from global warming and attributes them to individual companies. It could bolster lawsuits against big emitters.
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Abigail Swann, PhD @ecoclimatelab.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Foundation-funded postdoc funding opportunity to work in WA state! Interested in applying to work with me on climate on land or global carbon cycle dynamics? Reach out! Info sessions in May and June, due date June 26. www.wrfseattle.org/grants/wrf-p...
wrfseattle.org
Postdoctoral Fellowships - Washington Research Foundation
Fellowship Details Fellowships include three years of salary support for the postdoc at an eligible research institution in Washington state. The salary for the first year is $80,000, increasing to […...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
We are—as a nation—intentionally blinding ourselves at the precise moment we need to see our planetary insult most clearly.
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
James Dinneen @jamesdinneen.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
This could be a big deal for the hundreds of climate lawsuits underway around the world. @jsmankin.bsky.social and @ccallahan45.bsky.social link emissions from specific fossil fuel companies to trillions of dollars in damages. “I think this is going to be the future of climate litigation." 🧪🔌💡
newscientist.com
Can climate science attribute economic damage to major polluters?
Climate researchers argue their science has advanced enough to directly link emissions from particular companies to damages from specific extreme weather events
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Seth Borenstein @borenbears.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
apnews.com/article/clim... world's biggest companies have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, a new study estimates
apnews.com
The world's biggest companies have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, a new study estimates
A new study estimates that the world’s biggest corporations have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, which is a shade less than the sum of all goods and services produced in the United States last ...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Can scientists trace climate losses back to the emissions from individual fossil fuel companies? Yes, we can. The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature
A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
"The universities control the knowledge in our society (...) We have to agressivly attack the universities (...). Fundamental lies that feminism is liberating (...) There is wisdom in what Nixon said, the professors are the enemy " bryanalexander.org/politics/the... www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FR6...
youtube.com
J.D. Vance | The Universities are the Enemy | National Conservatism Conference II
YouTube video by National Conservatism
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Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
I receive numerous requests from journalists regarding the current situation with the Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change. I am not involved in the work of the IPCC for the 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7). 1/...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
This headline is an astounding (and gross) editorial sleight of hand.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Water memories are short in the American West. Just two years after the 2020–23 drought, the Southwest drifts back to its climatically preferred state: drought. This 2021 op-ed feels relevant as we approach the 2025 dry season with low snowpack and reservoirs: shorturl.at/Uvsyv
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
High CO2 is expected to boost runoff via plant responses, but our results challenge this. Conditioning plant-driven runoff changes on plant-forced precipitation changes, we find runoff declines are as common as increases, with CO2-driven runoff boosts over just 5% of land: shorturl.at/4zM7N
nature.com
Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation - Nature Water
This study shows that Earth system models disagree on the spatial distribution of plant-induced precipitation changes but indicate that plant responses are as likely to decrease runoff as they are to ...
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
Identifying climate impacts requires data. And data is reflective of the power, values, and priorities of the data collector. MLB has high-speed cameras to isolate warming's influence on a batted ball, but no data on heat stress of ballpark staff & patrons. What of the impacts we cannot track?
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Human-caused increases in extreme heat caused ~$30T in losses over 1992-2013, mostly in the low-income world least culpable for warming. $300B/yr in climate financing is 17 times less than the costs of but one climate hazard, estimated with data a decade cooler. Paper here: tinyurl.com/3psfnt4p
tinyurl.com
Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth
Human-caused increases in heat waves have reduced economic output in the world’s poorest regions.
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
A low-grade pan-continental drought has emerged across the US over the last several months, with 49 states experiencing moderate or worse drought. Global warming makes the exceptional the rule, stressing emergency management practices: shorturl.at/dhVWW
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Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
As the governments of the world commit humanity to sailing by 1.5°C, a friendly reminder that our level of societal risk aversion—not science—remains the major uncertainty in setting the carbon budget. From Mathez & Smerdon, 2018, itself adapted from Meinshausen et al., 2009.
Likelihood of exceeding a 2°C temperature target as a function of cumulative CO2 emissions. Scientific uncertainty is dwarfed by risk aversion uncertainty.
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