Sign in

Zeke Hausfather

@zekehausfather.com
43K followers 339 following 2.9K posts

"A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes. Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC AR7 lead author. Website: zekehausfather.com Substack: www.theclimatebrink.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 7h
Awesome to see @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social get recognized with a MacArthur Foundation ‘Genius Grant’ today! www.macfound.org/fellows/clas...
macfound.org
Holly Jean Buck
Investigating the social, ethical, and political dimensions of climate and energy policies and emerging technologies.
1436
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 28/09/2026
This year's record setting El Niño will impact many different parts of the world, with some experiencing severe drought and others flooding. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I explore what impacts happened during past events and which are most likely to occur this year
theclimatebrink.com
The impacts of this year’s record-shattering El Niño
El Niño will drive severe drought from Indonesia to the Southern Africa and northern South America, with wetter winters from the US Gulf Coast to Southern South America.
513359
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.
1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.
24622
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 24/09/2026
Our monthly Berkeley Earth press briefing is happening tomorrow (Thursday) at 8 AM Pacific. Join us to hear about record-warm August temperatures as well as the latest on this year's record-setting El Niño event: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
1265
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 23/09/2026
I've updated my map of El Niño impacts this year to incorporate 13 dynamical models (NMME and C3S, Sept runs); the initial version was simply based on an assessment of the impacts literature for past very strong events. This also let me refine the impacted areas using the model fields:
111537
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#ElNino - as measured by ONI (Niño 3.4) - is now the hottest ever recorded, with months before it peaks - peak likely about 4C - prev record is 3C data via @zekehausfather.com 1/2 dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso
dashboard.theclimatebrink.com
Climate Dashboard
Daily-updated global temperature tracker: ERA5 daily data, multi-model ENSO forecasts, annual projections, and climate models vs. observations.
15737
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 22/09/2026
Communities can't wait for the next National Climate Assessment to understand their climate risk. With leadership by Melissa Kenney, @bobkopp.net & I were lucky to work with 175 climate researchers to outline assessment priorities that folks can work on now: headlines.ametsoc.org/2026/09/22/f...
headlines.ametsoc.org
First Paper Published in the U.S. Climate Collection
The U.S. Climate Collection has published its first paper, with 175 authors outlining research priorities for future U.S.-focused climate assessments.
05727
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...
5236128
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
The world has made real progress in steering away from some of the darkest climate futures where global emissions doubled (or more) this century. But as David Wallace-Wells and I note in today's NYT, we are not out of the woods yet, and climate uncertainty is not our friend: www.nytimes.com/2026...
417774
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
“Very strong El Niño events like those in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 were associated with hundreds of billions of dollars in damages globally – this event is leaving those past ones in the dust.” @zekehausfather.com www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘Jaw-dropping’ El Niño bursts through temperature record months before peak
‘Godzilla-level’ phenomenon is supercharging the climate crisis and will have a huge impact on communities across the world
5260130
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 21/09/2026
This year's El Niño event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El Niño. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
7329163
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/09/2026
Some folks are holding up the unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season as some sort of "gotcha" for climate scientists. But low Atlantic hurricane activity has long been the signature of strong El Nino events, as memorably shown back in 1997:
616449
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NEW from us: India's rapid clean power expansion has kept power sector emissions flat for two years, for the first time in over 50 years, and sharply reduced fossil fuel imports. Oil and gas consumption have also fallen for two years in a row, helping alleviate the Hormuz shock.
214568
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 16/09/2026
I've been working with the team at Google on a framework to combine cutting short-lived climate pollutants like methane with durable carbon removal. Its awesome to see this being applied in the real world in a new deal with Terradot in Brazil! www.reuters.com/busi...
44914
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 16/09/2026
All the September dynamical ENSO models (including SINTEX) are now in, and they give a 100% chance of a record event this year using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) metric:
110247
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
US Energy Data is an awesome new dashboard by @hannahritchie.bsky.social and the @ifp.bsky.social team that takes data from the inimitable DOE EIA and makes it far more accessible to the broader community: usenergydata.org
usenergydata.org
Understanding America's energy system
Track and understand the numbers behind US energy — year by year, and state by state.
15122
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
With all the September runs of dynamic ENSO models now in (with the exception of SINTEX), we are even more likely to see a record-setting (or even record-shattering) event this year. Most models revised their projection upward, a few downward, and a few unchanged:
59425
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 10/09/2026
Not only was August 2026 the warmest August on record globally, but this summer as a whole (June, July, August) was also tied with 2024 as the warmest on record in the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 dataset:
17736
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 08/09/2026
After a nearly month-long plateau Nino3.4 region temperatures (ONI) are on their way back up. We've now surpassed 1982/1983 and are only behind 2015/2016 in terms of maximum daily values. And its only early September.
311749
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/09/2026
The August Niño3.4 numbers (ONI) came in at ~2.6C, a tad lower than most models predicted as temperatures largely stalled. This will likely change next week with some strong westerly wind bursts, but the trajectory may lead to a slight downward revision in September model runs.
26221
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 03/09/2026
Today we (Frontier) announced four research grants totaling $2.3 million to support help answer some of the big scientific questions needed to enable safe and scalable ocean alkalinity enhancement. Check out the details on the winning projects here: frontierclimate.com/...
15612
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The world had warmed ~1.2C in 2018 (SR15) & we now admit, 8 years later, exceeding 1.5C is unavoidable. The world is ~1.5C today, & warming ~0.3C/decade. Can we say that <1.8C is possible? I don't think we realise how close we are! 5/
213038
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 02/09/2026
August 2026 was the warmest August on record in the the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 dataset, at 1.65C above preindustrial levels. This beat the prior record set in August 2024 by a fairly wide margin (~0.14C).
417186
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
A lot of ink has been spilled on RCP-8.5, but its worth pausing and celebrating just how dramatically the high-end tail of emissions scenarios has changed over ~15 years. Genuine technological and policy progress on climate, reflected in the set of futures we can imagine
39123
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
Our Berkeley Earth high resolution dataset paper is now available for open review over at ESSD! Thanks to @rarohde.bsky.social and Bruce Calvert for all the hard work to get it released: essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
15217
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
7234115
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
Had a lot of fun chatting with the folks at Novara Media about El Nino, global warming, mitigation scenarios, carbon dioxide removal, geoengineering, technology, policy, and a whole range of other topics. Check out the whole interview here:
youtube.com
Everything You Need To Know About The MONSTER El Niño.
Featuring Michael Walker & Zeke Hausfather. Support our work: http://novara.media/support Buy Novara Media merch: https://shop.novaramedia.com/
35518
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
🇨🇦 thimbles.bsky.social 🇨🇦 @thimbles.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
@zekehausfather.com did a talk on El Nino Grande on @novaramedia.com that was quite 😬. youtu.be/TVN4rt7G9mQ 2027 is going to be a ride, from the looks of it.
youtu.be
Everything You Need To Know About The MONSTER El Niño.
YouTube video by Novara Media
0124
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 28/08/2026
It is premature to attribute the Nepal disaster to climate change: we cannot yet say how much warming temperatures and melting glaciers contributed to this specific event. But risks of glacier collapse in a warming Himalaya are clearly growing. My latest at The Climate Brink:
theclimatebrink.com
What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster
Formal attribution is premature, but the collapse happened on a rapidly warming mountain in a valley losing its ice
1715555
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 27/08/2026
My rough global temp prediction for the next few months: Warmest August on record. Second warmest September on record (after 2023). Warmest October, November, December, January, February, and March on record (and maybe beyond). Follow along over at the Climate Dashboard:
dashboard.theclimatebrink.com
Climate Dashboard
Daily-updated global temperature tracker: ERA5 daily data, multi-model ENSO forecasts, annual projections, and climate models vs. observations.
69239
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 26/08/2026
I've added a new interactive warming map to my Climate Dashboard, powered by the Berkeley Earth high-res (~25 km resolution) dataset. Click anywhere on the planet to see how temperatures have changed since 1850, and download data for that location in csv form: dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#map
815474
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 24/08/2026
August 2026 is on track to be the clear warmest August on record in the ERA5 dataset, which will be the first record setting month so far this year (but definitely not the last given the monster El Nino developing!): dashboard.theclimate...
112137
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/08/2026
Whether 2026 is the warmest or second warmest year on record is now a coin flip in ERA5! dashboard.theclimate...
25816
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 17/08/2026
On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com and I break down the extent with which the coming El Nino event is a "time machine" of future warming. There is a bit of nuance to this, b/c long-term warming is fundamentally different from El Nino warming. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/is-this-el...
theclimatebrink.com
Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth?
There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming
39939
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/08/2026
Pretty neat exploration of storylines of possible climate futures by Dagomar Degroot and colleagues: after2c.com
after2c.com
After 2C - Histories of the Future of Global Warming
An interactive exploration of five plausible, research-grounded climate futures, written as history papers looking back from the year 2100.
211656
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
NEW SHIFT KEY: I spoke to the great @zekehausfather.com about why the current El Niño is breaking records (and poised to break more), what that will mean for global weather patterns, and whether we can now definitively say global warming is accelerating heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
heatmap.news
Why This El Niño Looks Like a Monster
Rob checks in on this season’s supercharged ocean temperatures with climate researcher Zeke Hausfather.
24115
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/08/2026
I had a great chat with Rob Meyer over at The Shift Key podcast about this year's likely-record-shattering "monster" El Niño event, and what it means for both local impacts and global temperatures. Take a listen here:
podcasts.apple.com
Why This El Niño Looks Like a Monster
Podcast Episode · Shift Key with Robinson Meyer · August 12 · 47m
1418
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
My entry into the warmest year discourse... Over the years, I've used a couple of methods to estimate annual mean anomalies before they happen - using projected ENSO signals at the end of the previous year, or just from the relationship between the YTD data and the final annual average.
19525
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 12/08/2026
We will be having our Berkeley Earth monthly press briefing tomorrow at 8 AM Pacific, covering July global temperatures, the rapidly developing El Nino event, and what to expect for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027. Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
03011
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Global warming is one thing, but the Earth is now poised to add in the strongest El Niño event since human measurements began. The next 12 months could be a real stress test: record heat, extreme weather, crop losses, and cascading impacts. In part, a preview of our future.
19946
Reposted by Zeke Hausfather
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I found @zekehausfather.com
3562
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 11/08/2026
Non-hydro renewables (primarily wind and solar) are on track to pass gas this year as the second largest source of electricity generation globally. The rapid over the past 10 years is pretty remarkable! Hat tip to Michael Liebreich for the plot idea.
1018554
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 10/08/2026
With all August model runs now in (except for SINTEX-F), we now expect this year's El Niño event to peak sometime between October and December at a stunning 4C in the Niño3.4 region. To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
512765
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 09/08/2026
The August NMME runs are now in (though CFSv2 and CanSIPS have already been updated), and continue the trend of each month showing yet-higher model forecasts of an unprecedented El Nino by the end of the year:
23714
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/08/2026
The rise in Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperatures over the past few weeks has been nothing short of astonishing. We are now hotter than any days during the 1997/1998 super El Niño event, and we are still many months from the peak.
23473302
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/08/2026
Published estimates of AI energy use per prompt (~0.3 watt-hours) appear reassuring small. But they are increasingly disconnected from how we actually use AI. Modern agentic tools use around 600 times more energy per prompt, as I discuss in my latest over at The Climate Brink www.theclimatebrink....
823095
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 04/08/2026
I've previously done 2026 and 2027 global temperature estimates for the Earth's surface, but a lot of people also seem interested in what will happen in the lower troposphere (TLT). Historically TLT has had a much bigger response to El Niño and La Niña than we see on the surface:
4417
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 02/08/2026
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
9035131734
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 31/07/2026
2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO). For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.
49732
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 30/07/2026
Jim Hansen and I have had a friendly debate about whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record or not. In a new piece, I explain how we both might end up being right: 2026 is increasingly likely to be the warmest in GISTEMP but second across all six records: www.theclimatebrink....
37320