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Glen Peters

@glenpeters.bsky.social
26K followers 305 following 2.6K posts

Energy, emissions, & climate CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-pe…

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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Current [El Nino] forecasts suggest that the 2026 event could push global mean surface temperatures in 2027 to almost 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels" 😱 Good rundown of El Nino impacts via @zekehausfather.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The US EIA is currently forecasting US fossil-fuel emissions to drop by 1.7% in 2026. robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
Graph showing: Changing EIA forecasts for US CO2 emissions in 2026 (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/USA/)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
When I think of the Strait of Hormuz & the discussions on whether it leads to a change in emissions trajectory as people get off oil-based products, I think of this graph... It took 4-5 years for aviation to fully rebound after COVID! Figure from here: robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Many countries now report GHG emissions to the UNFCCC. There is a wealth of data, and many stories to tell. Check out the processed data here, via @wflamb.bsky.social lambwf.github.io/Tidy-GHG-Inv...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Is it now that we start to see the real consequences of the combined conflicts in the Middle East and Russia? It seems that capacity outside of the Middle East and Russia is being reached, with prices rising accordingly. But for how long and how far?
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
What might global fossil CO2 emissions do in 2026? Based on IEA estimates, fossil CO2 emissions could decline 0.5% in 2026. A big 2.4% drop in oil & small 0.5% drop in gas, is partially offset by a 1.2% increase in coal. All very uncertain! www.energiogklima.no/nyhet/hormuz...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
India's power generation this year is sitting well ahead of last year's. The general trend is ever up, but 2025 was an exception with its high rainfall. This year the El Niño has reduced rainfall, and temperatures are higher, as well as agricultural irrigation pumping. robbieandrew.github.io/india/
Graph showing: India's total daily power generation (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/india/)
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Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 12/09/2026
just updating this graphic to show the latest CCS numbers
a red line at almost zero amongst the various ccs scenarios that go up wildly even in the 2030s
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
An update on Norway's Greenhouse Gas emissions, and its climate targets. The targets look like a fun slippery dip (slide), so hoping Norway meets them! (and I hope I got the targets right!)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Who would have thought that a report by a bunch of scientists is so concerning to some of the worlds most powerful countries. (...or is this a proxy battle about other issues)
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
A second update this year of the dataset "Global CO₂ emissions from cement production" was published a few days ago. A lot of changes under the hood. In 2025, cement production stood for 6.0% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, down from the peak in 2021 of 7.1%. zenodo.org/records/2217...
Graph showing: Global CO2 emissions from cement production
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
An update on Norway's Greenhouse Gas emissions, and its climate targets. The targets look like a fun slippery dip (slide), so hoping Norway meets them! (and I hope I got the targets right!)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
US fossil CO2 emissions are on track to decline 1.8% in 2026, after rising 2.7% in 2025. Though, it is expected emissions will rise 0.5% in 2027. US emissions are really levelling out, after declining for more than a decade! More figures here: robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Half way through the year, Indian CO2 emissions have grown 2.7% (Jan-Jun). Get more figures and information on India here robbieandrew.github.io/india/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
To minimise peak warming levels, net CO2 emissions need to reach net zero as soon as possible AND methane emissions need to decline rapidly. It is not a trade-off between CO2 & CH4, both need to be reduced as much as feasible, as fast as possible! www.nature.com/articles/s43...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I don't really disagree with anything @globalecoguy.bsky.social wrote, but I do want to highlight that it is way too simple to more or less say "CDR hard, CH4 easy". Let's have a look. This figure shows what CH4 looks like in 1.5C scenarios (with overshoot). Meanwhile, methane is growing... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
"Overshoot" scenarios have existed for 20+ years. This paper in 2009 was one of the first to systematically explore the issue. You will see the emission scenarios look very similar to the emission scenarios we see today. What have we learnt in 20 years? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 1/
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Very strong policy support is sustaining strong growth in sales of battery-electric cars in France, reaching 38% in August, and 30% so far this year. Subsidies are higher for lower-income households, and there are also subsidised leasing schemes for this group. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?la...
Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: France (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?lang=en&freq=monthly&type=relative&sort=bev-share&country=France)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
One may say we "need" this level of Carbon Dioxide Removal to meet certain climate targets, but whether it is feasible / realistic is entirely another question. www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
If you want 1.5C, 1.8C, 2C, overshoot, no-overshoot, etc, then they all require the same thing: rapid short-term emission reductions reaching net zero CO2 emissions as soon as possible. This has been clear from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5C, which depicts "overshoot" on its cover! 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This will be the quote of the century: "It turns out artificial intelligence is everywhere, except in the productivity data. We might all be using it, forcing it into our workflows, but it has contributed diddly squat to nationwide productivity." www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09...
abc.net.au
Australian economy grows faster than expected, raising rate hike risk
Australia's economy grew 0.4 per cent in the June quarter, slightly beating most economist forecasts and further raising the prospect of an interest rate hike as soon as this month.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I was a bit surprised by this figure. The media coverage in the last months gave me the impression Q2 EV sales would be through the roof, but it is only marginally higher than Q1 2025. And that was quite the drop in Q1... (I suspect old news to everyone but me) www.iea.org/reports/elec...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
"A rapidly warming climate and retreating glaciers are increasing risks of these sorts of events in the region, whether or not we can ultimately attribute this particular event." www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-we-ca... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I have lots of thoughts and emotions, but I really wonder what the "climate is not that important" crowd think when they watch what is unfolding in Nepal. They will surely deny any climate link. If they admit any climate link, would that mean they need to change their world view too?
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Direct Air Capture (DAC) is often argued as a small footprint form of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) & this is seen as an advantage. For Nuremberg (Germany) to take up its current per capita emissions using DAC, would require city walls 68m high, nearly as high as the church towers (75m). 1/
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Integrated assessment models make contact w physics, hilarity ensues: It's one thing to say "IAM negative emissions are unrealistic" - but needing to produce largest global carbon capture facility every ~36hrs from today through 2050 to hit lower end of net zero goals does put some mustard on it.
From https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2753-3751/ae987b

Achieving gigaton rates of sequestration in 2050 as most energy system models suggest would require building 250 Gorgon-scale sequestration projects every year between now and 2050, based on realized injection rates of about 0.4 Mt y−1. Compounded over a 25 year buildout to 2050, this yields ∼2.5 Gt CO2 y−1 of cumulative operating capacity, consistent with the lower end of net-zero sequestration targets. Realistic planning across diverse geologies must assume modest injectivities of 0.2–0.5 Mt y−1, consistent with a majority of on-going projects (Ringrose and Meckel 2019). At this rate, achieving even the lower end of projected sequestration—1 Gt y−1 by 2050—would require drilling thousands of wells each year until 2050. For comparison, the total number of active drilling rigs (onshore plus offshore) in the US at the end of June 2026 was 581 (Hughes 2025). The drilling activity alone needed to achieve projected levels of sequestration—2–5 Gt CO2 y−1—would be larger than the entire existing oil and gas industry.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Agree very much with this commentary. Ok for National Forest Inventories to be the foundation of GHG inventories, but a plurality of methods makes for more robust estimates. The article misses a few things though, which I think are worth emphasizing. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The Norwegian oil & gas adventure is coming to an end. Even with aggressive exploration in new areas, big finds, & technology development, the most ambitious scenario from the Offshore Directorate has declining production. This is before considering climate! www.sodir.no/en/whats-new... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Road biking is now popular in Norway. Let me just put it on the record, that my bike is older than these people, I wear the same bike pants & yellow shirt for 25 years (so the peloton can see me), I don't pull my socks up, but my black helmet & black shoes do match! www.nrk.no/sport/fleire...
nrk.no
Fleire unge kvinner har begynt med landevegssykling. Mote kan vere grunnen.
Menn i tights og neongul trøye pleidde å dominere sykkelvegane. No har dei fått selskap av motebevisste unge kvinner.
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12
"Three stacked panels sharing a time axis. Top: global temperature rises past 1.5°C, peaks, then declines (the overshoot pathway), with a flat permanent-exceedance line at the peak for comparison. Middle: biophysical responses to the same trajectory diverge; some track temperature down, some recover with a lag, one keeps intensifying. Bottom: socioeconomic impacts of the same biophysical change diverge by adaptive capacity; high-capacity systems recover, while one crosses a dashed adaptive-capacity threshold and never recovers: the permanent overshoot legacy.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
For a presentation I needed scenarios on oil & gas demand in Europe under its climate legislation. I went to the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change report. How do models get such high LULUCF removals? Who believes this? climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/reports-and-... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"Can we sequester carbon fast enough? Growing disconnect between models and reality" The achieved sequestration rate is nearly always lower than the announced rate. At what stage should models include this and adjust costs accordingly? iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Figure showing the actual rate measured in reality is much lower than what the project announced as the rate at project start.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Does wood harvest & regrowth lead to net emissions? An age old question... In the Global Carbon Budget, the net flux over time is positive, even if harvest & regrowth is technically "carbon neutral". Why? Because wood harvest continues to grow! essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Maintaining net zero GHG emissions (in SSP1-1.9) leads to 0.8°C of cooling, with 0.5°C from the loss of short-lived warming, 0.2 °C from net-negative CO2 emissions, & 0.1 °C from decay in the climate system (ZEC). Yes, non-CO2 emissions at net zero emissions is a key factor... rdcu.be/fyZo4
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
"[A]cross the conterminous USA, carbon accumulation in mature forests, covering ~72% of forest area, is systematically underrepresented by current satellite-derived biomass estimates relative to lidar, forest inventories and ecosystem models" Oops... rdcu.be/fyXiB
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The DIAMOND project has just released a new series of Technical Briefs showcasing the open & fully accessible modelling suite: GCAM-Europe, OMNIA, CLEWS-EU, GEMINI-E3 EU, NEMESIS-World, & OPEN-PROM. climate-diamond.eu/communicatio...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
"The upper limit of iron fertilization ... correspond[s] to a net annual drawdown rate of 0.14–0.70 Gt CO2/yr" (we emit around 40GtCO2/yr). Plus, significant uncertainty, trade-offs, and difficult to verify. Perhaps we could just reduce CO2 emissions by an extra 1-2%?
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Reading this article by @mliebreich.bsky.social, & listening to the podcast, there are a few things left unsaid which I think is worth making explicit... A little thread on my pet peeves... mliebreich.substack.com/p/to-drill-o... 1/
mliebreich.substack.com
To drill or not to drill? Lessons from Norway
In the UK, debate is raging about opening up the North Sea to oil and gas drilling. The latest episode of Cleaning Up with Anders Opedal, CEO of Norway's Equinor, contains important lessons.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Which model to use? Different model, different results! "We identify some important differences in the scope, data, and assumptions in the two model types that lead to noticeably diverging results." www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Comparing the model traditions of energy economics and energy technology: the case of Norwegian energy-efficiency policies
When considering the introduction of energy and climate policies, numerical model analyses are useful tools. Bottom-up energy-system models and top-down general equilibrium models originate from di...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Sometimes spelling checkers can be useful...
Word suggested I replace "pests,floods" with "pussyfoots"...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
It looks like 2026-2027 will have a pretty impressive El Niño, which would imply a pretty impressive atmospheric increase in carbon dioxide and temperature. www.nature.com/articles/d41... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The low share of households with air conditioning in Europe is really quite something. Not sure this is just explained by summer temperatures alone? (which seems to be a few degrees lower in Europe). www.iea.org/commentaries...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
I agree with Ketan.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Spotted @eroston.bsky.social in the wild...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
🔥More natural gas was flared globally in 2025 than was exported through the Strait of Hormuz. Flaring means the gas is combusted just to get rid of it.
argusmedia.com
Global gas flaring rises again in 2025: World Bank | Latest Market News
Hydrocarbon producers flared more gas than a year earlier for the third consecutive year, despite pledges from countries representing the majority of flared gas to eliminate routine flaring by 2030.
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Imagine if hundreds of people died in hurricane or floods smashing through Europe Heatwaves have already killed that many ppl. They are a silent killer in that they dont generate outrage or fear. Hope this by @economist.com helps save lives as Europeans wake up to danger bsky.app/profile/eate...
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 28/06/2026
On average, global ocean temperatures right now are the hottest in our historical records for this time of year! Follow along at zacklabe.com/climate-chan... 🌊
Graph showing daily global mean sea surface temperatures for 2026. This is also compared to the daily data from the 1981-2010 average and 1991-2020 average. Annotations are also shown to the current year with the other years from 1940 to 2026. There is a seasonal cycle. There is a long-term warming trend. 2023 and 2024 are also indicated, which were the warmest years on record. Data is from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and updated through 15 June 2026.
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Recent French national average temperatures: - impossible in a pre-industrial world, - about 1 year in 40 years in a 1.5C world - 1 in 10 years in a +2 °C world - 3 degree world - happens every other year interactive/method/maps here (également en français): benmsanderson.github.io/futureevent/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
It is not looking good for the costs of nuclear fusion, particularly in comparison to solar with batteries. Oh, wait, we still need to get one to work yet... (though, interesting discussion on whether it is worth government investment) www.nature.com/articles/s41... (reposting, wrong link)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Nice explainer, though article is behind a paywall. 'Tipping Point' is a very ambiguous term. It is hard to define mathematically (concepts like stability or multiple equilibria are used). Though, 'Tipping Point' is an easy & catchy term, therefore used & abused!
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