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Erich Fischer

@erichfischer.bsky.social
6.1K followers 341 following 80 posts

Climate scientist investigating weather and climate extremes, professor at ETH Zurich (@ethzurich.bsky.social), fascinated by weather and climate, IPCC AR6 lead author

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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Children disproportionately affected by heat Our new Science Advances paper, led by @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social and @wimthiery.eu, shows that children today – and in the future – are disproportionately affected by heat stress. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat
Children are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and will face intensifying effects of climate change during their lifetimes. Here, we show that children already face disproportionate ex...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Radiation Trends Point to Higher Future Warming How sensitive is the climate to increasing CO₂ concentrations? Our new paper led by @ggyuleva.bsky.social with @retoknutti.bsky.social and @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social adds a new piece to the puzzle agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
Recent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te...
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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In terms of temperature anomaly for the last three months (MJJ 2026 period), France is the most anomalous country in the world with +2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average.
Map showing 2-m temperature anomaly for May 2026 to Jul 2026 from ERA5 reanalysis. France and the whole western Europe is dark red, indicating much warmer than normal conditions.Bar diagram showing the top 10 and bottom 10 countries in terms of temperature anomalies from normal. France ranks the first warmest.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Plausible record-shattering heat extremes Several recent forecast cycles have shown the possibility of >41°C in northern Switzerland and southern Germany during the first week of August. For many Swiss stations, this would exceed the current all-time record by 2–4°C.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Record-shattering heat and the rapid pace of warming Great article by @eroston.bsky.social @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202... The article reproduces a figure from our recent paper illustrating how heat records have changed in recent decades: rdcu.be/fskRF
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 26/06/2026
Europe's most severe #heatwave ever recorded! Well done to the @wwattribution.bsky.social team for publishing their latest #climate attribution study during the heatwave. Read full report: www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-...
he cities (EU + Switzerland + UK + Norway urban regions with a population of over 50,000) where WBGT records were broken (or forecast to be broken) during this heatwave. A record was broken in approximately 45% of urban regions.
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MetJam @metjam.co.uk · 24/06/2026
A minimum temperature of 22.3ºC at Brize Norton is a new highest minimum June record for the station by OVER 3ºC and an all-time station record by 1.3ºC (previous was 21.0ºC on 20th July 2016). An incredible margin to break the station records by; records began there in 1968.
Spaghetti chart showing Brize Norton daily minimum temperatures for every day of the year from 1968 to 2026. Faint grey lines trace 58 years of historical data, forming a seasonal cycle from around -5°C in winter to a summer peak of roughly 15°C. A dashed red horizontal line marks the previous June minimum temperature record of 19.1°C, set on 28 June 2025. A thick red line shows 2026's observed minimum temperatures, tracking within the historical range through winter and spring before climbing sharply in late June, well above the entire historical envelope at that point in the year. A large bold number, '22.3°C', sits at the top of the chart with its base resting on the 20°C gridline, connected by an arrow to the peak of the red line on 24 June 2026. A subtitle beneath states this is a new all-time minimum temperature record for the station, beaten for the second consecutive June running
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 23/06/2026
We recreated the legendary heatwave of summer 1976 in today’s climate… …and it is essentially the same as the weather forecast for this week, on the 50th anniversary. We look set to smash the June 1976 temperature record by 3°C. Written with Hayley Fowler: theconversation.com/we-recreated...
theconversation.com
We recreated the legendary heatwave summer of 1976 in today’s climate – here’s what we found
For 15 consecutive days, temperatures were over 32°C. Today, heatwaves are 3°C or 4°C hotter.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/06/2026
A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible.
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 22/06/2026
The UK temperature record that has held since 1976 of 35.6 degrees, is forecast to be 38-40 degrees in June 2026. Future heatwaves will be more intense in an even warmer world. Europeans are exposed to more heat stress than ever before due to continued burning of fossil fuels
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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave.
2 m temperature weekly mean anomaly from ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast. The colors are red in Europe, with > 10 °C above normal over France.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
An amazing workshop with plenty of novel and exciting new research. Very timely research, given the ongoing heatwave. Thank you very much @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, @gabihegerl.bsky.social and Jack Scheff for organizing it.
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Mike Byrne @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Excited to host the Land-Climate Workshop @uniofstandrews.bsky.social this week! Looking forward to ~40 talks + posters on cutting-edge research questions spanning wildfires, drought, freshwater availability, monsoons, extreme weather and much more! @earthscista.bsky.social @gabihegerl.bsky.social
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Lisa Thalheimer, DPhil @lisathalheimer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Lead by Sabine Undorf, this review synthesizes the latest opportunities and guard rails of impact attribution.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Yet another example of record-shattering heat with both day- and nighttime records being broken by large margins. A distinct signal of the high warming rate.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 14/05/2026
To keep track of the rapidly growing field of attribution research, Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has influenced extreme weather. Explore the interactive map here ⬇️ interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
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World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
NEW: Players and fans face increased heat danger at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, since USA '94. Our results show that from Miami to Kansas City, climate change is increasing the risk of playing the World Cup in much of the northern hemisphere during summer. (1/2)
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
We show that for this particular event the rainfall is incredible sensitive to the dynamics, and future dynamical changes may outweigh thermodynamics in a warmer world, reducing the rainfall. 🌧️🌧️🌧️ rdcu.be/fh2YW
rdcu.be
The role of subtle dynamical changes in the European extreme rainfall of July 2021
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Extreme rainfall will become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, however not every event follows the general trend In our new study we show the Ahr floods of 2021 may have been the perfect storm: rdcu.be/fh2YW @erichfischer.bsky.social @knmi.nl @ivm-vu-amsterdam.bsky.social
Altenahr's main square after the flooding in July 2021 (from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/10/german-valley-swept-away-cemeteries-gave-up-their-dead)
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation New @nature.com paper led by Lei Gu with Dominik Schumacher, @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social, Istvan Dunkl, @robinnoyelle.bsky.social, Jitendra Singh, Lorenzo Pierini, @retoknutti.bsky.social and @erichfischer.bsky.social @ethz.ch
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Honored and excited to contribute to the important work of @carbonbrief.org as a contributing editor
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Pedram Hassanzadeh @pedramh.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
doi.org
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNAS
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA). There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..
Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from NOAA OISST v2.1Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from ERA5.
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Paulo Ceppi @pauloceppi.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Cloudiness has been declining globally for the last two decades. Why is this and how does it matter for global warming? Read our new article to find out! 👇 doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026 And see the @carbonbrief.org post summarising the key findings buff.ly/oLxKacO
doi.org
Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations
Abstract. From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Excellent summary on our study in @nature.com by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org (@carbonbrief.org) with comments from Rowan Sutton, Karen McKinnon and @robertvautard.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/limiting-glo...
carbonbrief.org
Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts - Carbon Brief
Limiting warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures may not be enough to prevent “extreme global climate outcomes”.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
The current heatwave in the US Southwest is utterly destroying many records for this time of year. Phoenix, Arizona has ~90 years of daily temperature data, and yet recent temperatures beat the previous March record by 5 °F (2.8 °C), and would actually tie the record for April.
Plot wrapping daily maximum temperature history for Phoenix, Arizona for every year since 1933, and showing the anomalously high temperatures in 2026.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 21/03/2026
Honestly, this historic heat dome across the West is really hard to put into words for me. Temperatures over 110°F (43°C) in March, shattering all-time monthly records on multiple consecutive days, and not just by a little. ➡️ I can confirm this is human-caused climate change. polarwx.com/models/
Map of the lower 48 United States showing 0.25° GFS run from 18z on 20 March 2026. The variable is the 500 hPa geopotential height percentile rank considering ERA5. There is a record-breaking ridge across the Western U.S.
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Peter Thorne @peterthorne.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
essd.copernicus.org
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
Multi-dataset comparison of global temperatures from 1850-2025, with 2025 values highlighted in a separate panel for each individual dataset. Baseline is a combination of 1850-1900 means.
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 14/01/2026
2025 global climate highlights are out: 🌡️ 2025 was 3rd warmest year on record, 1.47ºC above the preindustrial level 📈 2023-2025 is the first three year period above 1.5ºC (according to ERA5) 🌍 The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record See: climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima... ⚒️🧪🌊
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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Hot off the press in the journal Science Advances: A new era of bioclimatic extremes in the terrestrial Arctic www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... Our new paper was published today!
science.org
A new era of bioclimatic extremes in the terrestrial Arctic
Long-term climate data suggest that the Arctic is entering a new era of bioclimatic extremes threatening cold ecosystems.
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AGU (American Geophysical Union) @agu.org · 17/12/2025
The Trump Administration's plan to dismantle the @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is senseless & dangerous. It would weaken weather forecasting, climate research, & the science that keeps people safe. We urge that this plan be abandoned. Call Congress to #SaveNCAR today. buff.ly/7ka1BQA
buff.ly
Save NCAR from being dismantled today!
The Trump Administration has vowed to dissolve the center that provides critical extreme weather and climate data for our nation.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
It appears that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has, within the past week, scrubbed a large amount of climate change content from its official website, as well as *removed human-caused warming* from the discussion on its "causes of climate change" page.
Snapshot of US EPA's "causes of climate change" webpage as of 12/8/2025. Human causes are no longer mentioned anywhere on the page.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Starting the first lead author meeting of the @Ipcc #AR7 report in Paris! For the first time, WG1, WG2 and WG3 meet together in a lead author meeting. Great to see so much expertise and enthusiasm to kick off the next report.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Many thanks to the fantastic team of PhD and MSc students, postdocs, IT and administrative staff and colleagues at @ethz.ch and across the world who helped to make this possible. I am very honored to be listed again. Special thanks to the @usyseth.bsky.social for the excellent research environment.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 08/09/2025
Climate skeptics have long been obsessed with corrections to temperature records for changes in measurement techniques and instruments over time. But it turns out that if we just used the raw data we'd see more warming. My latest at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
A bit farther ahead, it's increasingly looking like a rather extreme late-season ridge & heatwave event may develop over Pacific NW & British Columbia in about a week--with some degree of anomalous warmth extending across most of the West (including California). #CAwx #ORwx #WAwx
Snapshot from ECMWF ensemble depicting an extreme and record-breaking ridge near British Columbia in ~6 days.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes Preprint arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724 with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke
arxiv.org
Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes
Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to ...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Wetterextreme und Sommer 2025 Ich war gestern Gast im SRF Tagesgespräch bei Karoline Arn. Ich habe die Wetterereignisse des Sommers 2025 eingeordnet und über unsere laufende Forschung am @usyseth.bsky.social der @ethz.ch gesprochen. www.srf.ch/audio/tagesg...
srf.ch
Erich Fischer: «Hitzewellen von fünf Wochen sind möglich»
Wie heiss kann es in der Schweiz maximal werden? Der Klimatologe Erich Fischer forscht zu Klima- und Wetterextremen an der ETH Zürich, auch zu Maximaltemperaturen in der Schweiz. Nun liegen belastbare...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Honoured to be appointed Lead Author of IPCC #AR7 for the chapter 7 on "Projections of regional climate and extremes". I am looking forward to contribute together with my @usyseth.bsky.social colleague @lukasgudmundsson.bsky.social and IPCC WG1 vice-chair @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
📣 New paper: 💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared? doi.org/10.1038/s432...
Showing the rainfall of 14th July 2021 (upper left) and 5 alternative scenarios derived from a climate model, conditioned to the atmospheric circulation patterns of the observed event.
Similar to fig.6 of https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02386-y
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Communications Earth & Environment @commsearth.nature.com · 08/07/2025
🌧️The July 2021 extreme rainfall in Western Europe was near the upper bound of plausibility in the current climate, though alternative storylines reveal more severe potential outcomes. @vikkithompson.bsky.social @hancloke.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting - Communications Earth & Environment
The July 2021 extreme rainfall event in Western Europe appears near the upper bound of plausibility in the current climate, though alternative storylines revealing the potential for even more severe o...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Schon 34.5°C um 13:40 in Basel! Ohne Gewitter dürfte es ein sehr warmes Eröffnungsspiel der Schweiz an der #WEURO2025 werden.
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Matthias Huss @matthias-huss.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
In about 4 days from now, we are going to hit the #Glacier Loss Day in Switzerland! All melting from this point onwards till next winter is unsustainable, i.e. is long-term mass loss. This is extremely early in the season! And just a bit behind the record-shattering year 2022...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Viermal mehr Hitzerekorde als ohne Klimawandel Eigentlich gilt: Je länger die Messreihen, desto seltener neue Rekorde. Doch das Gegenteil ist der Fall – wie wir in unserem Reviewartikel in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment zeigen. Blog: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h... Paper: rdcu.be/et273
carbonbrief.org
Guest post: How climate change is fuelling record-breaking extreme weather - Carbon Brief
Recent years have seen a rapid succession of climate-related records broken.
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BAFU | OFEV | UFAM | FOEN @bafu.admin.ch · 19/06/2025
🔥 Hitzewellen werden häufiger & intensiver – und belasten die Gesundheit, Landwirtschaft & Infrastruktur. Besonders gefährdet: ältere & verletzliche Menschen. 💧 Auch Trockenheit & Wassermangel nehmen zu. Die CH muss sich anpassen. 👉https://dieumwelt.ch/artikel/klimarisiken-in-der-schweiz
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