Sign in

Tristan Guerra

@tguerra.bsky.social
313 followers 401 following 6 posts

political science | polarization & populism | research fellow More In Common | made @SciencesPo38, formerly @Princeton 🇫🇷

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Was gestern etwas unterging: Die gestrige Berlin-Wahl war mit grossem Abstand das schlechteste Resultat aller Zeiten der SPD in Berlin. Für die Berliner Grünen war es das schlechteste Resultat seit 2006.
4619
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
minimaliste13 @minimaliste13.cpesr.fr · 08/09/2026
Résumé pour journaliste voulant présenter de manière correcte les choses : - La perte totale de points pour l'OCDE est de 57 point, 26 points en Italie, 16 points au RU, 76 points en Belgique, 94 points en France. - Les élèves testés ont fait toute leur scolarité sous Macron.
10217136
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Mrs Muir @hyderules.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Tribune intéressante de Bristielle sur l'équilibre des forces à gauche, avec quatre blocs : le noyau insoumis (20%), les socio-démocrates (24%), et deux autres familles : les mélenchonistes déçus (25%), et les unitaires qui veulent un candidat unique à gauche (32%). www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...
lemonde.fr
Présidentielle 2027 : « Le vote utile qu’espère mobiliser Jean-Luc Mélenchon n’aura plus le même sens qu’en 2022 »
TRIBUNE. Le candidat de La France insoumise entend s’installer en tête des sondages à gauche et, ce faisant, rallier les électeurs de son camp afin d’accéder au second tour, mais ceux-ci sont divisés ...
151
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
davidbroska.bsky.social @davidbroska.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Americans say they want less inequality. Why don’t they support policies to reduce it? New paper: across 31 nationally representative survey waves (N=384,248) and a preregistered experiment (N=1,009), Americans favor PREdistributive over REdistributive policies 🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...
87228
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 09/06/2026
🚨 🚨 🚨 new publication (with @antonialang.bsky.social) klaxon!!! Over the past decade, scholars have increasingly turned to “place” as a key factor in political behaviour — particularly on the far right, in Europe & the US. Urban-rural divides are especially intriguing. But are they true cleavages? 🤔
sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
All content on this site: Copyright © 2026 Elsevier B.V., its licensors, and contributors. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.
36424
Tristan Guerra @tguerra.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Espagne - Intentions de vote Législatives @moreincommones.bsky.social (N=2 547, terrain du 21 au 25/04) PP : 31% [28,6-33,6] PSOE : 28% [25,8-30,2] Vox : 17% [15,2-19] Régionalistes : 8,2 [6,8-9,5] Sumar : 8% [6,8-9,5] Podemos : 3% [2,1-3,8] SALF : 2% [1,1-2,4] Participation estimée 68% [66-72]
Graphique en barres intitulé « Estimación de voto » (avril 2026). Participation estimée : 68,3 % (IC 95 % : 65,8–72,1). Intentions de vote : PP 31,1 % (en tête), PSOE 28 %, Vox 17,1 %, partis régionaux 8,2 %, Sumar 7,7 %, Podemos 2,9 %, SALF 1,8 %. PP et PSOE dominent nettement, suivis de Vox, les autres forces étant sous les 10 %.
010
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Gloria Gennaro @gloriagennaro.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
New paper out in @thejop.bsky.social : "Immigration, Public Housing, and Support for the French National Front." How does expanding public housing affect far-right support? The answer depends heavily on local conditions, and specifically on local immigrant shares. Paper: doi.org/10.1086/736361
47721
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Anton Shekhovtsov @shekhovtsov.substack.com · 29/03/2026
Based on a six-month investigation, the film "The Price of a Vote" depicts impoverished rural communities where local officials allegedly control jobs, aid, and services in exchange for votes, with claims that up to 600,000 voters across dozens of districts are affected. buff.ly/ivoUCuk 2/6
1185
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Zach Dickson @zachdickson.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review! We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵
8358148
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Worth a read - parallels with the UK are fascinating.
conservativehome.com
Will Prescott: Why Australia’s centre-right is having an identity crisis | Conservative Home
With the Australian centre-right parties now divided and losing ground and under siege from both their left and right, the only winner is Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party.
5287
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Joël Gombin @joelgombin.fr · 04/02/2026
J'ai créé un agent de sociologie électorale, ça peut peut être intéresser quelques personnes ici : andre.vote. (inscription obligatoire mais c'est gratuit)
andre.vote
André - Analyseur Neuronal de Données Référentielles Électorales
Interface conversationnelle pour l'analyse des élections françaises depuis 1999
9218
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
More in Common US @moreincommonus.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
JUST RELEASED: #BeyondMAGA, our new study of 12,000+ Trump voters, reveals Trump built a coalition, not a cult. Only 38% of his 77 million voters say being 'MAGA' is important to them. BeyondMAGA.us #BeyondMAGA
beyondmaga.us
Beyond MAGA: A Profile of the Trump Coalition
#BeyondMAGA studies 2024 Trump voters and reveals Trump's support is a coalition, not a cult. Meet the 4 types of Trump voters: MAGA Hardliners, Anti-Woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans, and the ...
172
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Theodore Tallent @theodoretallent.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
🎉 NEW PUBLICATION🎉 Our paper on "the effect of symbolic policies on climate policy support" has just been published in the APSR ! @apsrjournal.bsky.social (open access) The end of a long and rewarding journey with the best co-authors @malojan.bsky.social @luissattelmayer.bsky.social (1/6)
49735
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Francesco Raffaelli @fraraffaelli.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social) ⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*? doi.org/10.1017/S147...
doi.org
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization
17439
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
‼️ New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social with the fantastic Valentin Pautonnier, Michael Lewis-Beck and Richard Nadeau! doi.org/10.1016/j.el... A short 🧵 on what it's about and what we find
doi.org
Redirecting
15014
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Dimiter Toshkov @dtoshkov.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
It is almost 10 years since Hanspeter Kriesi published his seminal article on the politicization of European Integration @jcms-eu.bsky.social. A short thread on how things stand as of 2024, with @chesdata.bsky.social, looking at salience, clarity, and unity of party positions towards the EU 🧵:
14726
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵 We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them? Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇 doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
18134
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Josh McCrain @joshmccrain.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
new paper by Sean Westwood: With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
38770390
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
310229
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Lukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12
13288112
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
🆕💼 Today marks a new chapter: I'm starting as a Researcher at @moreincommonuk.bsky.social in Spain! After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.
5483
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are? @simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions Thread 🧵1/10
216765
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨 Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️ In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
1526988
Tristan Guerra @tguerra.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
La radicalisation du mécontentement à l'égard d'Emmanuel Macron s'est encore accentuée depuis la dissolution de 2024, et atteint désormais des niveaux records
010
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists? In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections: journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.... 1/3
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
34517
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
14668252
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Frederik Hjorth @fghjorth.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
🚨 New publication 🚨 : Happy to share that my paper, "Losing Touch: The Rhetorical Cost of Governing" is now forthcoming at @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Short 🧵 about the paper here 👇 1/10
512736
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries. 1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration
11344212
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Joe Phillips @polpsychjoe.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
What do Americans associate with 'wokeness'? Find out now in our new open access article that @respol.bsky.social released just in time to ring in my 30th birthday! (with @benji9253.bsky.social, Kal Munis, and Spencer Goidel) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 🧵
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
33610
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
My article with @robjohns75.bsky.social, "Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future", is now out open access at @polbehavior.bsky.social. It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future - Political Behavior
Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psycholog...
44624
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
New paper out at @cpsjournal.bsky.social! With Ian McAllister, we examine how party competition and party positions condition the presence and size of an age gap in voting for the left. A short 🧵 below! journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
Is there a ‘Youthquake’? The Structure of Party Competition and Age Differences in Voting - Ruth Dassonneville, Ian McAllister, 2025
Why do age differences matter for voting in some countries and not in others? Despite the prevailing narrative that a ‘youthquake’ in voting is occurring across...
111142
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Anja Neundorf @anjaneundorf.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
The most striking result from yesterday’s German election #btw2025 🇩🇪: 🔹 35 years after reunification: The GDR is redrawn on this map. 🔹 The AfD won 45 out of 48 electoral districts in the East. 🔹 In some parts of Saxony, they came close to 50%! Why is this happening? Here’s my take 👇
65912375
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.
11239118
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively. FDP might still make it, BSW less likely. Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins... #BTW25 #GermanElection
23484163
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Alessandro Nai @alessandronai.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
🚨 New article out at EJPR with the dream team @fredericofs.bsky.social Loes Aaldering @kgattermann.bsky.social Diego Garzia TLDR: dark personality traits (esp. Machiav.) in in-party candidates are associated with higher #AffectivePolarization Article: tinyurl.com/4wnuhcad Open data: osf.io/2c7w4/
35116
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Curd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
Graph that shows the sum of tweets and their impressions by members of the German Bundestag (Parliament), clustered by party. The blue AfD is a clear outlier with around 400 tweets and just under 40 million impressions.
18611367
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Vincent Lemire @vincent-lemire.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Les massacres à Gaza doivent cesser. Les otages doivent être libérés. MAINTENANT. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous⬇️ #CeaseFireNOW #BringThemHomeNOW. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous 🔽 #FIN www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture–recapture analysis
Our findings show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied. These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war.
45724
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Zuckerberg exposes a big problem with our ideas about authoritarian populism as backlash. Backlash as counterfactual means “if we had not had progressive thing X, we would not see that much support for this ideology“. It should have become clear that authoritarianism is nothing reactive 1/
17320
Tristan Guerra @tguerra.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
This article brilliantly captures the deadlock and absurdity of presidentialism within the French political system www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/...
000
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Over the past 80 years, academic writing has become substantially harder to read 📉🧪 www.economist.com/science-and-... I analysed 350k PhD thesis abstracts and found that they've become more complex in every discipline, especially the humanities and social sciences
5133288
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹 Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state? We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
https://shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
26820384
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
[Entretien 🎞️] L’écologie semble être sortie des préoccupations. Elle serait même l'objet d'un backlash. Mais n'est-ce pas pas un peu plus compliqué ? @theodoretallent.bsky.social, doctorant au CEE, était invité de Paloma Moritz sur @blast-info.fr pour en parler. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc87...
youtube.com
COMMENT GAGNER LA BATAILLE POLITIQUE SUR L'ÉCOLOGIE ?
YouTube video by BLAST, Le souffle de l'info
0266
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
sarah jeong @sarahjeong.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
6 hours under martial law: a drunk scene report from Seoul www.theverge.com/24312920/mar...
theverge.com
6 hours under martial law in Seoul
On the ground from the protests outside the National Assembly building
25177072233
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
The French Parliament has just brought down Michel Barnier’s government via a vote of no confidence – a first since 1962. A 🧵 on what is happening, what to expect next - and how the far right is capitalizing on the crisis.
13521
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
mathieu gallard @mathieugallard.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
🇫🇷📊 La dernière vague de l'enquête Fractures Françaises réalisée auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de 3000 personnes par Ipsos pour @lemonde.fr, le CEVIPOF, l'institut Montagne et la Fondation Jean Jaurès est sortie 👇🏼 www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...
lemonde.fr
La France, un pays inquiet et mécontent frappé par la crise politique
La douzième vague de l’enquête annuelle « Fractures françaises », réalisée par Ipsos pour « Le Monde », la Fondation Jean Jaurès, le Cevipof et l’Institut Montaigne dresse le portrait d’une France déc...
22110
Reposted by Tristan Guerra
Emiliano Grossman @egrossman.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Some papers are a long time in the making. This one, written with the excellent @iguinaudeau.bsky.social, took long and I am incredibly grad to see it published. 1/8 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
511237