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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona

@tarekjaziri.bsky.social
1.3K followers 803 following 105 posts

Researcher at More In Common | PhD candidate at EUI | Political Science & Sociology #FirstGen tarekjaziriarjona.com

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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
🆕Nuevo pulso electoral: El titular de hoy es que la inmigración se convierte en el principal problema para los españoles y que el PP ganaría unas elecciones con el 28,7%. Van tres lecturas que no caben en un titular. 🧵
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
While a lot of commentary focuses on candidates, they miss that extreme right voting runs deep in Saxony Anhalt. Its predecessor state Anhalt during the Weimar Republic was the first state governed by the NSDAP following the 1932 state election (41% of votes, in coalition with nationalist DNVP!).
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LSE Blogs @lseblogs.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Should immigrants be given the right to vote in elections? And what political implications would this have? On @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social, @simonhix.bsky.social @tarekjaziri.bsky.social show that granting voting rights to immigrants in Spain has had little impact on party vote or seat shares.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Why not give immigrants the right to vote? - LSE European Politics
Granting voting rights to immigrants in Spain has had little impact on party vote or seat shares, removing one of the main objections to the policy.
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Ingvild Zinober @ingvildzinober.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Super excited to see the second article from my dissertation published in @politicsgenderj.bsky.social Drawing on unique Norwegian data, I find the green gender gap already exists in early adolescence. Boys are less climate-concerned, less supportive of green policies and less likely to vote green.
cambridge.org
The Green Gender Gap in Adolescence: A Case Study of Norway | Politics & Gender | Cambridge Core
The Green Gender Gap in Adolescence: A Case Study of Norway
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Cada ampliación del electorado trae consigo el mismo miedo: que los nuevos votantes lo decidan todo. Pasó con la clase trabajadora, con las mujeres, ¿y con los inmigrantes? Artículo en @piedrasdepapel.bsky.social en @eldiario.es www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepap...
eldiario.es
¿Quién gana cuando los inmigrantes pueden votar? Nadie en particular
El miedo a que ampliar el electorado decida las elecciones vuelve a dominar el debate español. Lo pusimos a prueba con dos experimentos naturales y el resultado es un cero claro y repetido
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Dr JJ González Alemán @glezjuanje.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
El verano que se salió de la campana de Gauss. Es una locura lo que estamos viendo este año comparado con años anteriores… Ya no hablamos de un año más cálido de lo normal. El clima se ha movido a un rango que la vieja estadística decía que no debía ocurrir.
El verano que se salió de la campana de Gauss: la estadística del clima antiguo decía que era imposible.

Es una locura lo que estamos viendo este año comparado con años anteriores… 

Anomalías de temperatura (en 850 hPa; 1500 m.) estandarizadas en Europa Occidental (15 may – 15 jul), en desviaciones típicas (σ):

🟢 1951–1980: la vieja normalidad, centrada en 0 🟡 1991–2020: ya desplazada a la derecha 🔴 2026: la distribución ENTERA se ha marchado a +3sigmas, con cola más allá de +6sigmas.

Y lo más fuerte: el panel inferior mide cuánto de cada año supera los +4sigmas, un umbral que en un clima estable tiene una probabilidad de 0,0032% (≈1 entre 30.000, solo por el lado cálido).

Durante 70 años: prácticamente 0. En 2026: ~15%. 🤯

Ya no hablamos de un año más cálido de lo normal. El clima se ha movido a un rango que la vieja estadística decía que no debía ocurrir.
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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Should immigrants be allowed to vote? This is a highly politically charged question. In a new research paper and substack piece, me and @tarekjaziri.bsky.social test the biggest objection to letting foreign residents vote locally, and find it doesn't hold up. 🧵 simonhix.substack.com/p/why-not-gi...
simonhix.substack.com
Why Not Give Immigrants the Right to Vote?
The fear that allowing foreign residents to vote in local elections would benefit left-wing parties turns out to be wrong.
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I never thought I'd write a paper with null results, yet here we are. With @simonhix.bsky.social, we studied whether giving immigrants the right to vote moves election results. He summarizes the paper very well below, so let me dig further into the methods and results. 🧵
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
🆕 Hemos publicado nuestra segunda estimación electoral. 📉La estimación confirma la caída del PSOE desde mayo al 25,7% (-2 p.p.) y la estabilidad del bloque de la derecha, ya que Vox ha dejado de crecer y permanece en un 17%, mientras que el PP sigue en primera posición en torno al 31%.
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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Manchester's map looks a bit like Berlin's and Vienna's - green core with social democratic red ring around it, radical right in the poor suburbs, traditional right in the rich ones..
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Jaime Coulbois @jaimecoulbois.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Esto es sin duda la mayor aportación a la transparencia de las predicciones electorales en España que he visto desde el trabajo de Jordi Muñoz en el CEO
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María Ramírez @mariaramirez.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Una encuestadora que hay que seguir. También autora de un gran trabajo cualitativo
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More in Common España @moreincommones.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
A partir de hoy hay un nuevo modelo de estimación electoral en España: el nuestro. Esto es lo que muestra 👇
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
🆕 Hoy, después de meses de trabajo, publicamos nuestro modelo de estimación electoral. 🔍 Incluyendo el informe metodológico completo y los microdatos. Todo abierto. Va hilo explicando brevemente el modelo 👇
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it. In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world: doi.org/10.1177/0010...
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Zach Dickson @zachdickson.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review! We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵
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Lucy Barnes @lucy-barnes.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Do we understand the politics of this kind of cost-shock inflation (and the policies that might help address it)? I think not so much: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
The Politics of Inflation
Inflation returned to the foreground of political economies worldwide after 2019, after 30 years of relative quiescence. Inflation remains unpopular—including among those who are hurt by the policies ...
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📊⛏️ Picanúmeros @picanumeros.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Sé que esto es hablar con la pared, pero a la hora de evaluar las encuestas electorales creo que no se debería usar el "acierto" prediciendo el resultado. No es su objetivo. Las encuestas muestran una foto fija de un momento determinado. Y esa foto fija puede cambiar en cuestión de pocos días.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 12/03/2026
National Science Foundation: $9 billion total in FY2026
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Emil Kamalov @emilkamalov.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
🚨 Our paper with @vetasergeeva.bsky.social on how Russian wartime emigrants decide whom to help flee the country is finally out in Perspectives on Politics! Open access 👇
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The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 28/01/2026
Spain’s decision to give legal residency to potentially half a million undocumented immigrants shows the country is an outlier among Western democracies in treating them as an asset.
on.wsj.com
Spain Moves to Legalize Migrants, Defying Europe’s Anti-Immigration Trend
Spaniards mostly view immigration as beneficial, although far-right opposition is rising.
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
👀Ojo a este trabajo de nuestros compañeros. Con 18’000 entrevistas han logrado identificar cuatro tipos de votantes de Trump 🇺🇸
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
The Abundance movement often points to environmental groups as the obstacles to building. But who actually files the lawsuits blocking projects? It’s not environmental groups. It’s been lawyered-up HOAs protecting property values all along. Regulation by litigation is the problem.
Bar chart titled “Who’s Really Blocking California Development?” showing the share of CEQA lawsuits by plaintiff type. HOAs and NIMBY groups account for the majority at 54%. Business and commercial plaintiffs file 20% of cases, government entities 13%, environmental groups 8%, tribal or cultural groups 4%, and labor unions 2%. The chart notes the analysis is based on 1,234 CEQA court opinions from 1973–2025 using CourtListener data, with HOAs/NIMBYs defined as homeowner associations, neighborhood groups, and ad hoc project-opposition groups.
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Andrea Arnal @andreaarnal.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
El otro día la gente de More in Common sacó un estudio sobre la polarización en España. Me llamó la atención una diapositiva en concreto:
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Un clima político crispado, tensión en redes, miedo a opinar, discusiones con amigos. Todos sentimos la polarización. Pero ¿están las costuras de la sociedad española por romperse o aún aguantan? Hoy publicamos el Atlas de la Polarización para dar respuesta a esta pregunta. 🧵👇
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Quiero enfocarme en un dato que suele pasar desapercibido en las encuestas: el tamaño y el perfil de los votantes indecisos. Normalmente hay un porcentaje de indecisos, la cuestión más interesante es saber quienes son los indecisos. 👀SPOILER: Los indecisos son actualmente más de izquierdas. 🧵👇
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More in Common España @moreincommones.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Nuestro investigador @tarekjaziri.bsky.social es uno de los entrevistados en esta pieza de @elpais.com sobre voto joven y redes sociales 👇
linkedin.com
El PSOE y el PP se afanan en romper el fortín juvenil de Abascal | More in Common España
Nuestro investigador Tarek Jaziri Arjona es uno de los entrevistados hoy en Diario EL PAÍS para hablar sobre voto joven, redes sociales y movilización electoral. Puedes leer el reportaje completo a...
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María Ramírez @mariaramirez.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Qué interesante siempre todo el trabajo de More in Common 👇
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Luis Aguado @luisaguado.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
España ya no comparte una visión común de la justicia (aunque hubo un tiempo en que sí fue así). Un análisis de @tarekjaziri.bsky.social a partir de datos del CIS y de nuestras propias encuestas recientes 👇
moreincommones.substack.com
España ya no comparte una visión común de la justicia
La reciente decisión del Tribunal Supremo sobre el fiscal general del Estado ha confirmado algo que ya venía asomando en el debate público: la justicia ya no significa lo mismo para todos.
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
@luismmiller.bsky.social explicaba esta semana en El Mundo que la justicia es una de las instituciones mejor valoradas en España, muy por encima de la política. ¿Esa confianza es realmente transversal? 📊 Con datos del CIS (1987–2025) y una encuesta propia, analizamos la evolución por ideología.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
We have a new tenure-track job in @lsegovernment.bsky.social at AP level (empirical political science, open subfield): jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Please apply and share with colleagues who might be interested!
jobs.lse.ac.uk
Assistant Professor in Political Science
Assistant Professor in Political Science, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></em></p> <p style="text-ali...
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Ence Morse @ence.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
We spent a year investigating billionaires for @washingtonpost.com. We found: the wealthiest 100 Americans gave $1.1 billion to influence the 2024 elections — 140x more than they did in 2000. And almost all of that giving boosted Republicans. washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
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More in Common España @moreincommones.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Casi la mitad de los españoles (45 %) conoce a alguien con un discurso antivacunas, y un 59 % ha estado expuesto en el último año a mensajes antivacunas. ¿Significa eso que el escepticismo está muy extendido? ¿O que hay espacio político para crecer apoyándose en esos discursos? 🧵👇
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Lorenzo Piccoli @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Mamdami’s program fits the tradition of municipal socialism first seen in London in 1889, later in Milwaukee’s so-called “sewer socialism,” and reaching its peak in Vienna from 1919 to 1934. Read more on the excellent Substack of Adam Przeworski. open.substack.com/pub/adamprze...
open.substack.com
Musings 3
Municipal Socialism
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Thread: part of an ongoing project to erase people of color from military history:
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Kristina Bakkær Simonsen @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Time to reshare this piece on the pitfalls of following the road Denmark has taken on immigration: ukandeu.ac.uk/denmarks-mig...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Denmark’s migration policy – an example to follow? - UK in a changing Europe
Kristina Bakkær Simonsen explains why countries feel they have something to learn from Denmark's strict migration policy, but argues that there are many key pitfalls.
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
💼 For anyone into surveys, public opinion & data: @moreincommonuk.bsky.social is hiring! I joined recently as a researcher for their team in Spain & it’s been great. It is a good chance to bridge academia & civil society research. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions!
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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
We are recruiting a few different new roles @Moreincommon_ UK, if you're interested in any of them and think you'd enjoy our work do take a look. www.moreincommon.org.uk/about-us/jobs/
moreincommon.org.uk
Current Opportunities
Check here for current job opportunities.
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
¿Ha aumentado la preocupación por el cambio climático tras la sequía, la DANA o los incendios? SPOILER: sí, pero brevemente… y depende de quién. Primera pieza que escribo para nuestro estreno en Substack: un mix de literatura académica, datos y gráficos curiosos 🌡️📊 Echadle un ojo 👇
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Sport & Rights Alliance (SRA) @sportrightsall.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
After 4 years calling on #FIFA for the right to play, since fleeing the Taliban takeover in 2021, the Afghan footballers have just competed in their first international tournament. 👏 🔗 Learn more: sportandrightsalliance.org/fifa-recogni... #AfghanWomenUnited
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Proton @proton.me · 31/10/2025
Last chance to turn it off. On Monday, November 3rd, Microsoft will start using your LinkedIn data for AI training. And remember, you're opted in by default. To toggle it off 👉 Account - Settings & Privacy > Data privacy > Data for Generative AI Improvement.
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Lauren Leek @laurenleek.eu · 27/10/2025
It's Monday morning, so time to share my new Substack: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle... (caution: I'm very far from being a sociologist so pls do provide feedback)
open.substack.com
“We All Ended Up in Islington”: The Hidden Multi-Dimensionality of UK Segregation
This post introduces a new Composite Segregation Index combining ethnicity, class, and education to capture spatial sorting - and shows why UK's census architecture hides the social dynamic beneath.
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Elias Dinas @eliasdinas.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Here I am again to witness my academic funeral.As I did some years ago with my job at Oxford, here I come to advertise my EUI chair. It has been a great job and I am happy to answer Q's. Also, fyi, I am not (yet) leaving the EUI. I do need, however a new name for my chair:suggestions very welcome.
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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions. www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
eui.eu
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Great write-up of an important study by @tevoelker.bsky.social and @dasalgon.bsky.social. Far-right actors have been very successful in setting the political agenda. Many in politics and media still ignore this. They argue "immigration is important to people, hence we need to talk about immigration"
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António Valentim @antvalentim.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
🚨 New paper out! Very happy to see our (Tom Arend, @fabioellger.bsky.social and mine) paper out at the @bjpols.bsky.social. We explore how voters react to new, disruptive political actors. 1/3
doi.org
Green Party Entry and Conservative Backlash: Evidence from Germany | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Green Party Entry and Conservative Backlash: Evidence from Germany - Volume 55
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Tarek Jaziri-Arjona @tarekjaziri.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
🆕💼 Today marks a new chapter: I'm starting as a Researcher at @moreincommonuk.bsky.social in Spain! After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.
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Tom Nuttall @tomnuttall.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
The AfD qualified for three mayoral run-offs in cities in North Rhine-Westphalia today, and lost all by big margins. The lesson is not that we have overdone the AfD's rise, but that we do perhaps sometimes underestimate the counter-mobilisation effects - including in east Germany, incidentally.
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