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Matt Grossmann

@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
12K followers 171 following 1.8K posts

Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 1h
Bipartisan negotiated settlements remain an important path to policy change, often requiring a lot of behind-the-scenes work & working around elections & presidential involvement. Possible post-election action www.reuters.com/legal/litiga...
reuters.com
US senators hit deal on energy project permitting bill, vote seen after November
US senators from both parties said on Wednesday they have reached a deal to reform laws on the permitting of large energy and infrastructure ​projects, though a vote will not occur before the midterm ...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 1h
Vulnerable Members of Congress are LocalMaxing Facing tough re-elections, legislators spend more time at home & focus on local bills & serving constituents over national policy New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Jaclyn Kaslovsky www.niskanencenter.org/vulnerable-m...
niskanencenter.org
Vulnerable members of Congress localize - Niskanen Center
Many Members of Congress are electorally vulnerable this year. Do they have to moderate to survive?
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5h
I enjoyed Blockers, the new Michael Lewis book on DOGE. Again, the reporting at the time was mostly correct: it was haphazard & inexperienced efforts that degraded government without achieving savings. But most effects are long-term & harder to see. hookedlansing.com/book/9781324...
hookedlansing.com
Blockers: Rebels in the Deep State
An inside look at the early days of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, as told by the public servants it targeted and one of America’s best storytellers. Blockers. It wasn’t a compliment. In...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5h
DOGE contract cuts were concentrated in counties that gave Trump less support in 2024 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
The Punitive Dimension of Presidential Particularism | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
The Punitive Dimension of Presidential Particularism
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We have the book cover for Policymaking for Realists! There may be time for small changes if you have them.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ideological principle or outgroup attitudes? An experimental analysis of cross-pressures, social dominance orientation, and vote choice among white Americans www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Ideological principle or outgroup attitudes? An experimental analysis of cross-pressures, social dominance orientation, and vote choice among white Americans
How does the mass public resolve a cross-pressure when it is along the dimensions of ideological identity and outgroup attitudes? While previous literature has examined the power of these attachmen...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
when fertility has fallen low, it has tended to keep falling. there is no robust evidence for fertility rebound, or for a stable equilibrium point www.nber.org/papers/w35824
nber.org
Does Fertility Stabilize At Low Levels? Evidence from Period, Cohort, and Subnational Data
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I continue to believe the pocket rescission reform can form the basis of a successful bipartisan bill to address presidential power grabs, though probably not until a Democratic president. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Proposes $810 Million in Education and Health Cuts, Defying Congress
The attempted clawback represents the second time in as many years that the White House has sought to cancel funding approved by lawmakers.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Dems own health care & thus usually get blamed for Obamacare failures even if product of Rep decisions: www.niskanencenter.org/why-rural-ar... But telling 760,000 people they will lose coverage right before election might be closer to traceable 2016 price hike: www.niskanencenter.org/how-medicaid...
niskanencenter.org
Why rural areas vote Republican despite worse health outcomes - Niskanen Center
Rural areas disproportionately suffer from Republican policies but Republicans can blame Democrats for worse health outcomes, especially when policies can be framed as helping immigrants or racial min...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Doesn't do much but Congress just passed the American Music Tourism Act in voice & unanimous votes to promote domestic & international travel to festivals & music history sites. A sign of acceptance of the festival economy, a generation from Woodstock 99 & from the rave act
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Institute of Public Utilities at Michigan State University @ipu-msu.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
IPU partnered with the MSU Institute for Public Policy and Social Research for yesterday's policy forum The Data on Data Centers. Panelists included MSU professors @jeanhardy.bsky.social, Dong Zhao, and IPU Director @eriknordman.bsky.social. Thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social and team for hosting.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Democrats have declined in areas just outside city limits, suggesting that partisan sorting is related not only to a city’s demographic & socioeconomic characteristics but also to its taxation and expenditures www.emerald.com/jpipe/articl...
emerald.com
City limits and partisan sorting
To what extent does variation in access to local governance explain partisan sorting in the USA? Prior research shows that voters do not sort into neighborhoods based on partisan concerns alone. Howev...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
AI is explicitly and implicitly associated with Whiteness across diverse samples psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Trump's unpopularity, rising costs, & the midterm penalty make Republican loss of one or both chambers; despite threats, turnout should be high & election administration should be good: academic.oup.com/HTTPHandlers...
academic.oup.com
Normal Politics Under Stress: The 2026 Midterm Elections and Constraints on Presidential Power
This essay presents my expectations for the 2026 midterm elections. Despite anxieties over Trump's refusal to concede in 2020, mid-cycle redistricting, and
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Most AGI predictions have historically been unfalsifiable; two early predications were wrong & most others remain open papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Do Boots and a Truck Make Candidates Republican? candidates can use cultural signals to show loyalties; voters intuit partisanship but rely more on partisan & policy information when available New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Levi Allen www.niskanencenter.org/do-boots-and...
niskanencenter.org
Do boots and a truck make candidates Republican? - Niskanen Center
Levi Allen finds that voters can intuit partisanship from symbols like cowboy boots and a truck but rely more on partisan and policy information when it is available.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
internet diffusion is associated with national declines in religiosity academic.oup.com/socrel/advan...
academic.oup.com
Internet Diffusion and Religious Decline: Evidence from 81 Countries, 1990–2022
Abstract. Using a panel of 81 countries across six World Values Survey waves (1990–2022), we examine whether growth in internet diffusion is associated wit
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
workers in hazardous occupations are more conservative & grow more conservative over time academic.oup.com/HTTPHandlers...
academic.oup.com
Occupational hazard and political segregation in the US labor market
Abstract. The tendency for liberals and conservatives to cluster in different occupations significantly impacts society, yet the factors that contribute to
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
American liberals and conservatives have different cognitive styles, but (mostly) respond the same to party cues www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Democratic House gain expectations vary widely, with seat-by-seat ratings implying much more limited gains (treating toss-ups as truly 50/50) compared to model projections
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
State governors shift voters’ partisan alignment toward their own party, concentrated among those aged 6-17 during a governor’s tenure (especially for popular, powerful governors) cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
DP21907 Hey, Governors, Leave Them Kids Alone: Political Influence During Childhood
We study the role of officeholders in the formation of political preferences during childhood. Leveraging data on 200 million registered voters and a regression discontinuity design based on U.S. gube...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
congressional rhetoric has become more partisan & negative as social media usage has increased; partisanship & negativity get more positive engagement on social media vs. credit claiming or constituency service www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Measuring Partisanship and Representation in Online Congressional Communications | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Measuring Partisanship and Representation in Online Congressional Communications
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I officially have a new side project. I am working on a book called The Raver's Guide: Inside the U.S. Electronic Dance Music Scene. It will take a while but is now under contract with Bloomsbury, Backbeat Books www.mattg.org/project-rave...
mattg.org
The Raver's Guide | Matt Grossmann — Matt Grossmann
Explore the history and culture of the US electronic dance music scene with The Raver's Guide, offering insights, practical tips, and a comprehensive overview for enthusiasts and newcomers.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Many podcasts are gender-coded & correlated with political content, even if ostensibly non-political; Trump targeted masculine podcasts; there was an association between exposure to Rogan & Trump vote (even accounting for party & prior vote): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Did Podcasts Help Trump Win Young Men? Gendered Media Spaces and Gender Gaps
In the 2024 election, the gender gap among young voters widened sharply. To examine the role of podcasts in this pattern, we combine two survey datasets with th
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Trump elections did stand out for greater focus on cultural issues relative to economic issues, especially 2024. Dem campaigns of the 90s & 00s stood out for their economic emphasis. www.proquest.com/docview/3381...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Citizens accept some ineligible access to social programs in order to provide full access for the eligible, but most weigh a trade-off. republicans accept less fraud for wider access onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Administrative Burden and the Access–Fraud Trade‐Off
Administrative burden represents political choices embedded in policy design that affect how people perceive and experience government. While policymakers frequently invoke fraud prevention to justif...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Does the ubiquity of collectively-directed motivated reasoning in AI agents suggest that these are emergent properties of language-based interaction (rather than specific to human psychology) or just that they were trained on human behavior?
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
The Democratic Party has moved away from predistributive (but not redistributive) policy since the 1980s in response to educated individual donors & corporate PACs, helping to fuel the education divide among voters: nicolaslonguetmarx.github.io/qjag019.pdf
nicolaslonguetmarx.github.io
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
I was truly honored by this august author-meets-critics APSA panel for "Elephants in the Room." I met my critics and they were pretty cool. Thank you so much @dandrezner.bsky.social @mattgrossmann.bsky.social, Kate Krimmel, Jasmine Smith, and @juliaazari.bsky.social!
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Why neither party is fiscally responsible Despite huge U.S. debt, both parties still introduce bills that increase spending & vote to expand the deficit. Republicans just cast more show votes New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Derek Epp www.niskanencenter.org/why-neither-...
niskanencenter.org
Why neither party is fiscally responsible - Niskanen Center
Headlines showed U.S. debt passing the $40 trillion mark and bond market jitters. But addressing the debt’s quick rise is not a top priority for either party. Were they ever fiscally responsible or we...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Our new Michigan survey has 55% of likely voters saying a Trump endorsement makes them less likely to support a candidate (vs. 27% more likely). That is hard for Republicans to overcome. ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-pol...
ippsr.msu.edu
MSU Poll Shows Democrats Lead, Republicans Coalesce Behind Rogers | Institute for Public Policy and Social Research
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I hope to see many in Boston for the American Political Science Association meeting. You can see our paper, "How Global is Midterm Loss?" Th at 11:30, me as a 'critic' of "The Elephants in the Room" Fr at 4, or my chapter "Policymaking: More Salient but Less Successful" Sat at 4
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Across countries, in-party discussions consistently increase both partisan affinity & out-party animosity, which leads to even less out-party discussion. Out-party discussions rarely reduce out-party animosity. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Democratic backsliding is associated with deterioration in public administration by reducing the external costs of poor performance & eroding meritocratic recruitment & bureaucratic impartiality onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
<em>Public Administration Review</em> | ASPA Journal | Wiley Online Library
Democratic backsliding has emerged as a defining political challenge of the contemporary era, yet systematic cross-national evidence linking it to governance outcomes remains scarce. This article arg...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
In the early 2000s, modest weekday social interaction built toward big peaks on Friday & Saturday nights. Friday night now looks like a typical weeknight & Saturday is less elevated than before. Overall, time with friends has fallen by more than half. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
The End of Friday Nights with Friends - Neal Caren, 2026
This study examines how Americans’ time with friends has changed over the week, focusing not on how much social interaction has declined but on when it has. Usi...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Trump took more in executive actions in his 1st 100 days in the 2nd term than the 1st across all issue areas & in both salient & non-salient actions: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
How to Upend America in 100 Days: Unilateral Power at the Outset of Trump’s Second Term | PS: Political Science &amp; Politics | Cambridge Core
How to Upend America in 100 Days: Unilateral Power at the Outset of Trump’s Second Term
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
cues like driving a Prius or eating at Chick-fil-A help voters infer candidates' partisanship, but only when they don't have direct political & policy issue information academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Nonpolitical Identity Signals as Information Shortcuts: Evidence from Three Experiments
Abstract. A rich literature has documented how voters navigate the complex information landscape by using heuristics, or “information shortcuts,” to help t
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Republicans, Democrats, & Independents all hear about the direction & extent of policy change & respond thermostatically, moving opinions (across parties) against the direction of policy change, despite partisan differences in media outlet consumption: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Parallel Partisan Public Responsiveness to Policy and the News
Abstract. Thermostatic public responsiveness to policy is mediated by news coverage of government actions. The literature on partisan polarization and asso
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
NSF is substantially reducing grants, zeroing out many SBE subdivisions, & withholding the funds to spend next year on central initiatives: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Exclusive: NSF set to issue lowest number of new grants in four decades
The US science-funding agency is withholding $1 billion of its budget so that the money can go to a special White House project.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
firms gain supply chain stability by choosing co-partisan (Democratic or Republican) suppliers but pay a price in higher markups and foregone innovation papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Partisan Alignment in Supply Chains
We document a novel trade-off from political polarization in supply chains: firms gain supply chain stability by choosing co-partisan suppliers but pay a price
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
🚨New Bright Line Watch report🚨 brightlinewatch.org/a-partial-de... Key findings: -Expert ratings of US democracy up to 60, highest of 2nd term -But 41% say US has unfair, tilted elections & weak checks -Public mostly confident in 2026 election; Ds higher but party gap smaller than past 🧵 below
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Michael Shepherd @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
💥 My book Rural Pain, Republican Gain is officially released today!! 💥 The book is an outgrowth of my dissertation work that I started in 2016. Indescribable feeling to be able to hold it in book form just under a decade later. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...
press.uchicago.edu
Rural Pain, Republican Gain
An eye-opening look at how Republican policies have affected health outcomes in rural communities and why poor, rural white voters are turning to the Republican Party—not despite this harm, but becaus...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Can housing policy overcome folk economic errors? Housing advocates have won policy change. But the public doesn't believe that more supply lowers prices & instead wants supplier crackdowns New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Chris Elmendorf www.niskanencenter.org/can-housing-...
niskanencenter.org
Can housing policy overcome lousy folk economic thinking? - Niskanen Center
Christopher Elmendorf finds that housing opinions aren’t just a problem of people wanting fewer renters in their backyard.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
My new book, Policymaking for Realists, will be out next June 1st: press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo... It doesn't yet have a cover but it has a price aimed for trade ($24) & a new subtitle: A Playbook for Policy Progress Despite Political Decay. You can pre-order.
press.uchicago.edu
Policymaking for Realists
The book Policymaking for Realists: A Playbook for Policy Progress Despite Political Decay, Matt Grossmann is published by University of Chicago Press.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
before strong party cues emerged, worldview structured Americans' reactions to COVID‐19 and constrained the positions parties could take onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
More than a partisan pandemic: Worldview and <fc>COVID</fc>‐19 response in the United States
As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, public responses increasingly divided along political lines: Democrats tended to support policies and behaviors recommended by public health experts and Republicans...
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026
So what the hell is going on with primary polling?? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-12...
gelliottmorris.com
Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average
And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
After 3 failed efforts at shutdown brinkmanship that won nothing, Senators are trying to avoid it this time (but the House still has to agree). Interesting given Dem primary campaign emphasis on fighting. Perhaps it will start back up after midterm www.nytimes.com/2026/08/08/u...
nytimes.com
Senate Passes Stopgap Bill to Avert Shutdown, Avoiding Skirmish Before Midterms
The move came more than a month before the spending deadline, reflecting an eagerness in both parties to avoid a messy fight before the midterm elections.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Congratulations to Michigan Political Leadership Program graduates who won their primaries last night, including Jocelyn Benson, Christina Hines, Jeremy Moss, Sean McCann, & up to 8 in the State Senate & 13 in the House. Apply to join us next year at mplp.msu.edu
mplp.msu.edu
About MPLP | Institute for Public Policy and Social Research
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Multi-candidate dynamics matter a lot in factional battles. Just compare MI-7 to MI-11 to MI-13. & the available candidates matter. Benson dominated governor primary by pushing one opponent to another race & another to a failed Indy bid. Thus a normy Dem won Abdul & Haley voters.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Mike Rogers will now get lots of national Republican support. They will think he can win & not believe any polls showing large Dem leads. Like McCormick in PA 24, but this time they will assume they have much better messages.
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