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Matthew Barnfield

@mbarnfield.bsky.social
1.1K followers 776 following 179 posts

British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. matthewbarnfield.co.uk

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
My review of “Sunak at 10: The Last Conservative Prime Minister” (in this month’s Literary Review - highly recommend if you love books).
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Karl Pike @karlpike.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I have a short essay in this relaunched Progressive Review from @ippr.org, called ‘A Liberalism of Public Things’. Open access link below: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Liberalism of Public Things
The social democratic ideological tradition - including the liberalism within it - should be described more accurately and defended. Liberalism within social democracy is the liberalism of public thi...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I had fun writing the Last Word in the latest (penultimate, I believe) issue of Political Insight. Read for free here: journals.sagepub.com/share/PUST6R... tl;dr: Burnham must continue to take easy short-term wins and keep banging the drum about the long-term vision those short-term wins serve.
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Peter Allen @peterallen.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Last month, my most recent book ‘How to Think About Politics’ was released in Portuguese with the title ‘Política na vida real’ (trans. Thais Entriel). It is extremely weird but also very cool to see it on sale, a first for me: www.travessa.pt/Artigo/Detal...
A photograph of the book ‘política na vida real’ by Peter Allen.
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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
🚨 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social with @klaramueller.bsky.social! “How snap election calls shape vote intention uncertainty” We show that when a snap election is called, voters resolve their uncertainty about who to vote for almost *immediately* www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Jason very nicely summarises our @electoralstudies.bsky.social paper showing that partisan gaps in coalition expectations shrink, but do not entirely disappear, after an election result reduces uncertainty about possible coalition formation. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Jason Reifler @jasonreifler.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Alas, I have no expertise to share on Swedish coalition bargaining. But, I can share an article that focuses on a potentially related topic -- the extent to which election results affect perceptions of likely coalitions (using the 2021 German election). www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Coverage of Reform's £72m keeps raising the possibility that the donations may have to be returned under the Representation of the People Bill, without engaging with the text of the bill. A lot of "Tice said, Rayner said". These seem like the relevant sections. bills.parliament.uk/bills/4080
Text from Schedule 11 in Representation of the People Bill draftText from part 4 of Representation of the People Bill draft
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Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
IN NEW ISSUE: Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/FGqoGEO @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social #polsky #polsci
Abstract
It is well established in political science that those who favour an election outcome tend to say it has a higher chance of success than those who oppose it. This tendency towards so-called ‘wishful thinking’ is often treated as a problem for democracy because it shows that voters are, as the term suggests, irrational. In this article, I make the case that partisan electoral expectations are significant not because they demonstrate widespread irrationality, but because they show how voters make sense of their role in democracies. I provide an alternative account of partisan electoral expectations as following a principle of electoral hope. On this account, partisan electoral expectations are rational in a practical, if not necessarily theoretical, sense.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
'Burnham’s deeper ambitions cannot be delivered on a three-year electoral timescale.' The public agree with @robertshrimsley.bsky.social 's analysis (giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...) 👇 bsky.app/profile/mbar...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero: drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com
How many Britons think the public shares their view on net zero?
An environmental addendum to YouGov’s ‘Perceived Majority’ report
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'
Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Seems worth noting that the maximum PCN for fly-tipping was already raised to £5000 in July (www.gov.uk/government/n...).
paragraph reporting that maximum fines for fly-tipping have increased
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Andy Burnham is setting out to convince the public that ending rough sleeping is possible. He needs to: despite wide acceptance in commentary at the time of its announcement as being a feasible goal, voters think he is less likely to fulfil this pledge than any other – as I found in my polling 👇🏻
Politico playbook newsletter saying that Andy Burnham is attempting to flesh out his ambitious plans to end rough sleeping
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
FWIW, in a survey I ran recently, 75% of people thought the next election would take place in 2029 and not sooner. Labour voters more inclined to believe Burnham that 'there is no early election': 86%. Reform voters less inclined to believe him: 63%.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
It is claimed here (43:10) that "there are certain kinds of information that are just not going to get communicated" on TikTok, because he has "never watched a TikTok in which somebody makes a complicated economic argument" or "sophisticatedly explains history". Hm. open.spotify.com/episode/6P31...
open.spotify.com
The History of Bad Ideas: Short-Form Video
Past Present Future · Episode
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Will Andy Burnham run out of time? More detail (illustrated) on my polling covered here by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social. The survey was in the field on 31 July, at the end of Burnham's initial policy "bonanza"...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I asked the public what they made of targets mentioned by/associated with Andy Burnham. Among these targets, their priorities were in the areas he emphasised in his first couple of weeks – but they are sceptical about the time it will take to achieve them. Write-up by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Week two of the Burnham "bonanza" has been less about concrete retail measures and more about indicating the direction of travel on big priorities. I wrote recently (and roughly) about how we can understand this kind of leadership in terms of "aspiration": open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
Andy the Aspirant
Why aspiring leaders state abstract objectives light on concrete policy detail
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
And check them out in more detail here open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
Reform UK: the political home of climate scepticism in Britain
As Tony Blair challenges net zero amid a record-breaking May heatwave, new data on what British voters think about environmental policy
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Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Focusing on centrism as a purported set of ideas – a centre beyond left and right – @karlpike.bsky.social offers a new theory of centrism as a structure for political action: a politics which oscillates between left and right. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/fRxUuSv @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social #polisky
buff.ly
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Saw the Burnham bounce bat signal in the sky so here I am talking about how momentum in the polls affects electoral expectations (original paper linked below): youtube.com/shorts/RAbvG...
youtube.com
How and why momentum matters
YouTube video by Dr Matthew Barnfield
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
A "continuation of decarbonising Miliband era" in the context of declining public support for net zero and climate change mitigation measures? How puzzling. I wish someone would write a Substack about how political science can make sense of this. open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Why do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
The Global Warming Thermostat
Why the public has stopped turning up the heat on climate policy action
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Why do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
The Global Warming Thermostat
Why the public has stopped turning up the heat on climate policy action
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
The general point here is obviously right, but I'm really not sure it makes sense to make this about voters' attention spans. Strikes me as just vibes and, even if it is a factor, as one that is dwarfed by the many others that the rest of the piece recounts so well.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This point is coming up a lot today. Last year, I argued that failure to recognise this would be the downfall of Starmer's "decade of national renewal": theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
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Duncan Robinson @duncanrobinson.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
in retrospect, just quite a weird politician www.economist.com/britain/2026...
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Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I had a go at exploring what Burnham could actually do, realistically, in the short term. (Always a dangerous choice for a historian...). Despite the structural challenges, on which I'm liable to focus, my answer is not 'nothing'. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp... @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
blogs.lse.ac.uk
What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics
Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?
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LSE British Politics and Policy @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
What can Andy Burnham actually do? More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics
Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?
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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I’m sorry, but what is ‘radical’ about the policies pursued by Miliband?
Miliband's promotion of radical net zero policies has earned him enemies among some trade unions, with Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, saying his appointment to the Treasury would be a "noose around job creation"
in Britain.
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
This is simply a free to air party political broadcast. There's a case for the BBC cutting away unless/until he actually says something newsworthy.
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Cath Haddon @cathhaddon.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Ok seen a few of these stories now. It's weird, given how many mid-term changes of PM we have had lately, that people don't remember they don't have shadow cabinets and there are many reasons they literally can't 'appoint' their picks before actually becoming PM. www.ft.com/content/66ad...
ft.com
Andy Burnham warned over lack of cabinet as Number 10 transition talks step up
Prospective Labour prime minister could take office as soon as July 20
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
The thing about all these projections is they all assume voters will ignore the local tactical stakes. Yet we have seen repeatedly that this just ain’t so.
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Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Remember all those articles about how young men are becoming much more right wing and pro-Reform than older men? Well it turns out the opposite is actually true
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Alarmed to realise that my attempt to offer a fresh perspective on the partisan "bias" in electoral expectations, and what it means for democracy, was accepted for publication almost a year ago. tl;dr: voters hope their vote isn't futile, and that's OK.
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Latest piece for the @financialtimes.com, on who gets to vote for a new Labour Prime Minister www.ft.com/content/d2d9...
ft.com
The strange case of who chooses the next Labour prime minister
Around three-quarters of those who can vote in any contest on who succeeds Starmer are not Labour Party members
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Grateful for the chance to discuss private members' bills (usage, reform, etc) today at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - alongside @kimleadbeatermp.bsky.social, @paulbrand.bsky.social, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social & Luke Norbury. Recording here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/assist...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Are private members' bills a good way for MPs to decide on difficult policy issues? | Institute for Government
An expert panel drew on lessons from the recent assisted dying bill and other PMBs to consider how backbench MPs should approach complex issues.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
tl;dr: a two-minute video summary to whet the appetite. youtube.com/shorts/xOP8t...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Karl here gives an excellent and nuanced overview of some of what our research (w/ @philipjcowley.bsky.social suggests about short-(and long-)termism in British politics. 1/4
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Karl Pike @karlpike.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Discussed ongoing research with @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social on the BBC’s Moral Maze yesterday evening - about what the ‘short term’ and the ‘long term’ mean in politics and policymaking. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
Moral Maze - Who is morally responsible for Britain's political short-termism? - BBC Sounds
Live debate examining the moral issues behind one of the week's news stories.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
So reformers should "get real: step up efforts to set up a truly independent commission, agree to back the system it recommends, insert a commitment into as many party manifestos as possible & begin working out how best to win support in what is bound to be a hard-fought public vote."
ft.com
Electoral reform for the UK? Don’t bet on it
Fractured party politics and enthusiasm from Labour’s hopefuls are not a sign of imminent proportional voting
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 03/06/2026
Last year, we shared a paper showing that Labour's accommodation of the radical right did not work. We now have a new version of the paper online: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
If you want to read this but don't have time to catch up on the first two articles in the exchange, why not watch my two-minute video summary instead: youtube.com/shorts/O-1Jn... (Hopefully sufficient to pique your interest so you go on to read them anyway.)
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Latest piece for @thehousemag.bsky.social, in which I reveal an unknown letter from Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, find another letter from Churchill, discover when Sir John Rodgers went to the dentist, and praise the kindness of two former Streatham MPs: www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
The Professor Will See You Now: Luck
Lessons in political science. This week: luck
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