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Jochem Vanagt

@jochemvanagt.bsky.social
455 followers 265 following 30 posts

Political Scientist at KU Leuven & University of Antwerp affective polarisation, radical-right voting & democratic support jochemvanagt.github.io

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Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Martin Gross @martingross.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Wanna talk about the cordon sanitaire (the "Brandmauer"?) 🚨We (@christinajuen.bsky.social, @pluggedchris.bsky.social and I) have a new paper out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social 🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010... What do we do in the paper? A 🧵: 1/7
Abstract of the article "The Cordon Dilemma: How Voters Evaluate Cooperation With the Far-Right in Parliament" by Martin Gross, Christina-Marie Juen and Christian Stecker. Published online first in Comparative Political Studies.
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Laurits Aarslew @aarslew.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Very happy to see this out in @bjpols.bsky.social The last paper from my dissertation has found a home
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
🌀 💡 Coalition politics in the spotlight 🗳️ @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social (@ecprpovb.bsky.social) show that coalition governments bring voters of different parties closer together only if people believe those coalitions are doing a 👍 good job. ➡️ bit.ly/4k0lKs3
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Coalition governments reduce partisan animosity — but only if they perform well
Jochem Vanagt and Markus Kollberg show that coalition governments bring voters of different parties closer together only if people believe those coalitions are doing a good job. When voters think…
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Jochem Vanagt @jochemvanagt.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
📢 Call for papers on political polarization! @eelcoharteveld.bsky.social and I warmly invite you to our workshop on political polarization at the Politicologenetmaal in Ghent, Belgium on 11–12 June. Submission deadline: 15 March 2026 More information: politicologenetmaal.eu/workshops-20...
politicologenetmaal.eu
Workshops 2026 – Politicologenetmaal 2026 in Ghent
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Jochem Vanagt @jochemvanagt.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
PhD successfully defended! "Beyond the Two-Party Divide" examines how affective polarization works in Europe, and when it matters for democracy. Short answer: Europe's multiparty systems have particularly good "safeguards" to prevent polarization from spiraling out of control like in the U.S.
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
‼️ New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social with the fantastic Valentin Pautonnier, Michael Lewis-Beck and Richard Nadeau! doi.org/10.1016/j.el... A short 🧵 on what it's about and what we find
doi.org
Redirecting
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Tommaso Pavone @tommasopavone.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Can reflecting on past democratic backsliding episodes “inoculate” citizens into vigilant liberal democrats? Drawing on the Slovak case, @movadek.bsky.social & I will find out: our registered report is in-principle accepted @thejop.bsky.social & survey results forthcoming! See tinyurl.com/uv5wybhs
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Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵 We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them? Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇 doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
🇪🇺🇩🇪 Published Today in @bjpols.bsky.social 🇮🇹🇫🇷 How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments: shorturl.at/2ekBj TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14
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Andrea Vik @andreavik.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
If the articles from my PhD were my children this article now published in @bjpols.bsky.social is my favorite. Written together with truly amazing supervisors and mentors, Pieter de Wilde, Oliver Treib, and Lene Aarøe, I had the support I needed in bringing this baby into the world. Summary below 👇
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Jochem Vanagt @jochemvanagt.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Join us on 23 January in Leuven for Rune Stubager’s keynote on the enduring impact of social class on political behaviour in Western democracies! You can register below 👇
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Dylan Paltra @dpltr22.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
🚨Publication Alert! My first first-author publication with @msaeltzer.bsky.social and @pluggedchris.bsky.social is out in @polbehavior.bsky.social, which began as my bachelor's thesis. We study how party polarization shapes affective polarization—with a particularly important role of the AfD. (1/7)🧵
Cover page of the article. "Affective States: Cultural and Affective Polarization in a Multilevel-Multiparty System" by Dylan Paltra, Marius Sältzer and Christian Stecker. "Affective Polarization—the growing mutual dislike among partisan groups—has been identified as a major concern in democracies. Although both economic and cultural ideological divides contribute to ideological polarization, their affective consequences can differ. This paper argues that cultural polarization becomes especially consequential when mobilized by far-right parties. Using data from 116 elections in Germany’s 16 states (1990-2023), we combine more than 550 state-level manifestos with more than 150,000 survey responses to examine how party polarization translates into voter affect. Our analyses show that both economic and cultural polarization increase affective divides, but cultural disagreements fuel hostility only in the presence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Acting as a cultural entrepreneur, the AfD amplifies the emotional impact of cultural divisions such as immigration, employing affective rhetoric and provoking strong rejection from other parties and voters. These findings highlight the catalytic role of far-right parties in transforming ideological competition into affective polarization."
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Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Excited to share a new preprint with @bnbakker.bsky.social, @ylelkes.bsky.social & @gijsschumacher.bsky.social! doi.org/10.31234/osf... Affective polarization research focuses almost exclusively on valence, despite affect having at least two core dimensions. We show that emotional arousal matters!
doi.org
OSF
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Violeta Haas @haasvioleta.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
journals.uchicago.edu
The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Sean Westwood @seanjwestwood.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
‼️ Onze onderzoeksgroep @vd-researchgroup.bsky.social verwelkomt dit academiejaar @bramwauters.bsky.social als Francqui leerstoelhouder! 📆 Het openingscollege gaat door op 2 dec om 17u30 Voor meer info en om in te schrijven voor dit *niet te missen* college, zie hier soc.kuleuven.be/afdeling-pol...
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Laura Jacobs @lcjacobs89.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Now out in Party Politics 🎉 Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing. 👉 A legitimisation effect. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Emma Turkenburg @turkenburgemma.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
💡 Edwin Jans, @rensvliegenthart.bsky.social, @skruikemeier.bsky.social en ik schreven een opiniestuk over polarisatie in Nederland, vandaag in @parool.nl 👇📰
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
🆕 Deservingness perceptions & candidate support 👥 #GroupAppeals help connect #VoterIdentity 🧩 to voting choices 🗳️ – @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Rune Stubager & Mads Thau want to know if this appeals to other social groups 📣 📖 #OA
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How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal... A 🧵 on our findings...
cambridge.org
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions
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Bart Maes @bart-maes.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Politicians don’t just care how many people hold an opinion — they care how good that opinion is. In our new (open-access) article in West European Politics, based on survey data from 900+ politicians across 11 countries, we show: quality > quantity. Read more: doi.org/10.1080/0140...
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Jochem Vanagt @jochemvanagt.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
🚨 New publication out @jeppjournal.bsky.social w/ Katrin Praprotnik @luanarusso.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions. Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
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Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Happy to see that my paper w\ @jochemvanagt.bsky.social now has issue- and page-numbers. Also check-out our post @ecprtheloop.bsky.social to learn more about why unsuccessful coalitions - like those that we see across the EU right now - do not mitigate polarization! theloop.ecpr.eu/coalition-go...
theloop.ecpr.eu
Coalition governments reduce partisan animosity — but only if they perform well
Jochem Vanagt and Markus Kollberg show that coalition governments bring voters of different parties closer together only if people believe those coalitions are doing a good job. When voters think coal...
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
📘 64.4 ✅ Coalition governments reduce affective #polarization when perceived as successful; ❌ when seen as failing, they increase polarization says @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social #OA #PoliSky 🔗
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
United in success, fragmented in failure: The moderating effect of perceived government performance on affective polarization between coalition partners
JOCHEM VANAGT, MARKUS KOLLBERG
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Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨 Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️ In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
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Eelco Harteveld @eelcoharteveld.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
What do citizens imagine their political opponents to be like? Polarization is real, but it also lives in our heads, fueled by stereotypes. We asked people in 🇧🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇵🇱 to describe opponents in their own words. With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇
doi.org
OSF
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 05/09/2025
Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered! In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
We have a new paper out in @jepsjournal.bsky.social, with @laiabalcells.bsky.social, @sergisme.bsky.social and Ethan vanderWilden. We test a number of experimental treatments aimed at strengthening social norms against radical-right support, but find mostly null results. 1/3
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West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Online first: "Defending democracy: investigating the efficacy of elite democratic defence in a competitive information environment" by @jmvanlit.bsky.social & @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0140... #Academicsky #Polisky
Abstract of the article "Defending democracy: investigating the efficacy of elite democratic defence in a competitive information environment" by Joep van Lit and Maurits Meijers. Published online first in West European Politics.Figure 1, displaying the experimental block in the survey.Figure 3, displaying the point estimates and 95% confidence intervals from OLS regressions on three different models.Figure 4, displaying the marginal means with 95% confidence intervals of the effects of different types of democratic defence.
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Linde Stals @lindestals.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
📢 New publication: we draw on unique data from 16- and 17-year-old Belgian adolescents who were eligible to vote in the 2024 European elections, and show that low trust in order and representative institutions is linked to protest and radical voting. @dieterstiers.bsky.social @annakern.bsky.social
academic.oup.com
Political Trust and Electoral Behavior Among 16- and 17-Year-Old First-Time-Voters in Belgium
Abstract. Citizens’ electoral behaviors tend to persist over time and are driven by long-standing political attitudes acquired during the formative years o
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
🚨Preprint alert🚨 How does affective polarization change democracy? Lots of pubs study how AP affects trust, democratic norms, inter-partisan attitudes, and participation. We (w/ @polpsychjoe.bsky.social, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social) examine a vital assumption this research seems to rely on: 1/6🧵
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Maurits Meijers @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
🧵 Hiring 2 PhDs in political science! Join my ERC project DEMO-LIES @uantwerpen.be 🇧🇪 We study how politicians accuse each other of lying/disinfo — and how citizens react: Does it erode trust? Polarize? Mobilize? 🧠🗳️ 💥 4-yr fully funded 📅 Start: Oct/Nov 2025 🗓️ Deadline: 21 Aug Details + apply 👇
uantwerpen.be
Doctoral scholarship holders in political science | University of Antwerp
YUFE vacancies
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices! Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
kuleuven.be
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior
2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices
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Tadeas Cely @celytadeas.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
📢 The final piece of my dissertation is out in @polbehavior.bsky.social! Does being an ideologue matter for political disagreement—beyond how many issues are involved? It does, shaping both animosity and how people engage. 🧵https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-025-10049-z
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Lisa Janssen @lisajanssen.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
What a pleasure to direct this amazing @ecpr.bsky.social Joint sessions workshop on citizens democratic commitment with Hannah Werner - thanks to all participants for the exciting papers and stimulating discussions!
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 19/05/2025
A Tinder Test of Democratic Norms💋 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸 doi.org/10.1086/736698
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Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios. osf.io/preprints/os...
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Joe Phillips @polpsychjoe.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Out now and open access at @ispp-pops.bsky.social (with @florianstoeckel.bsky.social)! How deep does animosity between Leavers and Remainers go, and years out from the Brexit referendum, does it remain? 🧵 doi.org/10.1111/pops...
doi.org
The limits of Brexit prejudice
Since the Brexit referendum, two novel political identities, Leaver and Remainer, have gained political salience in the United Kingdom. Some work contends that Leavers and Remainers display great ani...
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
🚨 “We just need to recognize that we’re all citizens of this country.” –– Politicians + citizens often stress a shared national identity when trying to bridge racial, partisan, or other group divides. @stysyropoulos.bsky.social & I show why such “shared” identities are doomed to fail. 🧵1/9
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Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
1/7 First paper of my dissertation now out in EJPR with @bnbakker.bsky.social & @gijsschumacher.bsky.social Can we measure affective polarization in systems with 6, 10, or even more parties without overburdening respondents or compromising validity? We show how. Paper: doi.org/10.1111/1475...
doi.org
Establishing the construct and predictive validity of brief measures of affective polarization
Measuring affective polarization, defined as the liking for one's political ingroup and the dislike for political outgroups, poses methodological challenges in multiparty systems: evaluations of seve...
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Jochem Vanagt @jochemvanagt.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
New blog piece out in @ecprtheloop.bsky.social with @markuskollberg.bsky.social! We discuss the findings of our recent EJPR publication where we show that coalitions do not automatically result in less affective polarization. You can also read the full article here: doi.org/10.1111/1475...
doi.org
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Jin Woo Kim @jinwookim.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Partisans often seem unwavering in their support for a politician/policy, even when faced with opposing evidence. But recent studies show that partisans can be persuaded. So how can both be true? My new @bjpols.bsky.social ky.social paper explores this Q: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Politics of the Low Countries @plc-journal.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
"Appraising Measurements of Affective Polarisation in Multiparty Systems" by @jochemvanagt.bsky.social @m2p-antwerp.bsky.social available in #OpenAccess at plc-journal.eu/article/view...
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Jochem Vanagt @jochemvanagt.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
🚨 New open-access publication out in the European Journal of Political Research! @markuskollberg.bsky.social and I examine how coalition government performance shapes affective polarization between coalition partners—and find that it matters. 🧵 1/6 ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Incredibly happy to share that I received funding through the FWO Odysseus program for the SOCIOVOTE project! Over the next five years, I’ll be examining how social groups think politically, and study the processes through which groups and group identities become politicized.
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Noam Gidron @noamgidron.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨 A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization. doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
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Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Does Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:
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Emma Turkenburg @turkenburgemma.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
How do complexity and simplicity in political communication shape citizens' reasoning and attitudes toward politicians? 💭 Read more about it in this new study, out now in Human Communication Research ⬇️🤩 academic.oup.com/hcr/advance-...
https://academic.oup.com/hcr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/hcr/hqaf002/8078028
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 19/03/2025
Who does Spiderman vote for? Who you vote for. In a new paper w/ @markuswagner.bsky.social we show that people engage in motivated projection of political identities. In the absence of explicit info on politics, individuals rely on valence to infer the politics of others doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
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