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Tim Allinger

@timallinger.bsky.social
1.2K followers 636 following 4 posts

Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Zurich | Political Science | Democratic attitudes & norms, political extremism, and causal inference | He/him

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Reposted by Tim Allinger
Daphne Halikiopoulou @dafnoukos.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
In our new paper for @ejprjournal.bsky.social Tim Vlandas and I offer a mathematical statement and simulations to assess the extent of the 'atomistic' fallacy on #VotingBehaviour, and illustrate the problem empirically by focusing on the example of #FarRight voting- available below Open Access
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
📣 New publication 📣 Delighted to see my article with the brilliant Teresa Bejan and James Tilley now out in the BJPolS We develop and test the concept of 'partisan intolerance' - and find high levels of intolerance in Britain, associated with affective polarisation 👇
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
New paper out in Nature Human Behaviour. "Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources" with @seramirezruiz.bsky.social DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s415... Ungated: rdcu.be/fh0Ss
doi.org
Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources - Nature Human Behaviour
This analysis of 1.2 million policy documents from 185 countries identifies global inequalities in whose knowledge is cited in policymaking. Governments in the Global South rely more on foreign source...
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
📄 New paper with a fantastic MA student @jmschulte.bsky.social: When social democrats move right on migration, do voters actually follow? We study Olaf Scholz's radical shift on migration in Germany (October 2023).
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics. Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line? What we find surprised us: a null! url: osf.io/preprints/os...
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Daphne Halikiopoulou @dafnoukos.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Are we accurately interpreting election results? In our new paper, forthcoming in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, Tim Vlandas and I discuss the risks associated with drawing inferences about national level outcomes based on individual-level analyses- i.e. the 'atomistic fallacy'.
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Naman Rawat @namanrawat.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
📢 New in IMR. We often ask whether #refugees “integrate.” But what happens when the host society becomes hostile? I develop the concept of social marginalization and show that refugees in more #violent German counties report stronger feelings of exclusion and discrimination. doi.org/10.1177/0197...
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MJ (Maryana) Balezina @mjbalezina.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
My first dissertation paper is out in Sexuality Research and Social Policy — open access! 🎉 It's about trans inclusion in sports and what fairness concerns actually do to public support. link.springer.com/article/10.1... Short thread below 👇
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Francesco Raffaelli @fraraffaelli.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
🚨 New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF doi.org/10.31235/osf... We usually think that social identities precede preferences We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences Focus: class identity in 🇬🇧 + Christian identity in 🇮🇹
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Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
New article and special issue! Just out in Comparative Political Studies: “Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities", the intro to a special issue on countering illiberalism in liberal democracies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Thread 🧵1/7
journals.sagepub.com
Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities - Giovanni Capoccia, 2026
The article lays the foundations of a research agenda on the conditions favoring short-term success against emerging illiberal challenges—necessary for democrat...
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Tim Allinger @timallinger.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️
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Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Great to see "The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy" with @robbwiller.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com
The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy - Kristian Frederiksen, Robb Willer, Michael Bang Petersen, 2026
Abundant prior research has analyzed the mass public’s role in democratic backsliding. Comparatively little research has studied democratic restoration, the reh...
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Francesco Raffaelli @fraraffaelli.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social) ⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*? doi.org/10.1017/S147...
doi.org
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis. The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social) Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
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Mashail Malik @mamalik.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
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Denis Cohen @denis-cohen.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD
cup.org
Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment - Volume 55
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Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
How do contemporary challenges of backsliding and war interact? We show that interstate conflict boosts support for undemocratic candidates, especially among Republicans who *do not prefer democratic Rs over undemocratic Rs* during interstate conflict. Out in @bjpols.bsky.social with Lasse Laustsen
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Felix Haass @felixhaass.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
🚨 New article out! “Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social 👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000... We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany. Short summary thread below 👇
Abstract for the article: How does right-wing terrorism affect electoral support for populist radical right parties (PRRPs)? Recent research has produced contrary answers to this question. We argue that only high-intensity attacks, whose motives and targets mirror PRRPs’ nativist agenda, are likely to generate a media backlash that dampens electoral support for PRRPs. We test this argument by combining high-frequency survey and social media data with a natural and survey experimental design. We find that right-wing terror reduced support for the radical right party Alternative für Deutschland after one of the most intense nativist attacks in recent German history. An analysis of all ninety-eight fatal right-wing attacks in Germany between 1990 and 2020 supports our argument. Our findings contribute to an understanding of how political violence triggers partisan detachment and have important implications for media responsibility in the aftermath of terrorist attacks.
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Teresa Völker @tevoelker.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵
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Jeyhun Alizade @jeyalizade.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left–right divide in immigration attitudes...
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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are? @simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions Thread 🧵1/10
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
NEW - How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD "we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians" - @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the dynamics of mainstream and radical political rhetoric regarding anti-immigrant policies, highlighting differences in societal responses and enforcement norms based on the source of the rhetoric.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
NEW - Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL "exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population" - @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of extensive media exposure on public perceptions and normalization. It references specific research surveys conducted on Sky News UK and Australia, analyzing changes in public attitudes and policy effects due to media strategies.
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar. We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads. What we find is disturbing: osf.io/preprints/os...
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Marta Vukovic @martav.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
🚨 My first publication, co-authored with Sylvia Kritzinger & Susanna Bastaroli, is out! In our chapter, we explore how Italians re-elaborate their country’s role in the WWII & the Holocaust. Available online & in print (EN): www.wallstein-verlag.de/978383535866... 🧵 Some key findings: 👇
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Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios. osf.io/preprints/os...
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
I am very excited to share a new working paper coauthored with @amaliaab.bsky.social. Using a field experiment, we find that, in the real world, it is more costly to express far-right preferences than other political preferences. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/8
Paper abstract: Are some political preferences more costly to express? In this study, we investigate the extent to which individuals face social exclusion for showing far-right political beliefs. We run a field experiment in Madrid where confederates initiate an interaction with random passers-by. We randomize whether the confederate wears a neutral (white) t-shirt or a t-shirt of different parties. Results show that passers-by are more likely to avoid interacting with confederates wearing the t-shirt of a far-right party (Vox). This finding holds both when we compare this condition against the neutral t-shirt one or the ones where confederates wear a t-shirt of other parties. Analyses of heterogeneity show that this effect is particularly strong in a left-wing neigbourhood. These findings contribute to theories about peer pressure and social punishment, providing evidence of how those processes can extend to the expression of different political views. They provide new insights into the micro-level mechanisms that underpin broader political trends, particularly the rapid and sometimes unexpected electoral growth of far-right parties.
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Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Does Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:
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Nicolai Berk @nicolaiberk.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Now available Open Access: 📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion? 🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The Impact of Media Framing in Complex Information Environments
To what extent do news frames influence public opinion? While a large body of experimental research suggests sizable effects, it is unclear how these findings translate to authentically complex inf...
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Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
You wonder how the CDU/CSU playing with the "Brandmauer" to AfD last week has influenced German voters? @mafaldapratas.bsky.social @jmfernandes86.bsky.social & I have you covered. We surveyed sample of 2,000 German voters. 🧵with first results 👇. Spoiler: It did not go down as well as CDU/CSU hoped.
bundestag.de
Deutscher Bundestag - Unionsgesetz zur Zustrom­begrenzung mit knapper Mehr­heit abgelehnt
Der Bundestag hat das sogenannte Zustrombegrenzungsgesetz der CDU/CSU-Fraktion (20/12804) mit knapper Mehrheit abgelehnt. Gegen die Initiative votierten am Freitag, 31. Januar 2025,...
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Edoardo Viganò @eavigano.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP 📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG... Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...
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Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
🚨 Out now in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social : "Citizens' Preferences for Multidimensional Representation". Jack Blumenau, Fabio Wolkenstein & I investigate citizens' preferences regarding 6 dimensions of representation using surveys conducted in 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇩🇪. Short 🧵(1/10) doi.org/10.1017/S15375
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Elena Leuschner @elenaleuschner.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
New working paper! How do protesters' demographics and policy preferences affect politicians' responsiveness to their demands? I find no effects of shared demographics btw. protesters and politicians, but asymmetric responsiveness to left-right policy preferences: gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/...
gupea.ub.gu.se
Asymmetric Responsiveness: The Effects of Protesters’ Demographics and Policy Preferences on the Political Agenda
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Gemma Dipoppa @gemmadipoppa.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
🚨 New @apsrjournal.bsky.social Paper! 🚨 In “When Migrants Mobilize against Labor Exploitation: Evidence from the Italian Farmlands,” I study how empowering undocumented migrants can reduce labor exploitation and even weaken organized crime. Thread : 🧵
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
The super election year is ending, with many winners and losers. Our new @thejop.bsky.social paper, (@henrikseeberg.bsky.social, @martinbaekgaard.bsky.social ) asks: How do winning and losing candidates see elections? Spoiler: Losers are more concerned about fairness. Link: doi.org/10.1086/734240
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Jonathan S Doucette @jdoucette.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Thrilled that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! 🎉 The article argues that low statistical power is a major impediment to acquiring cumulative knowledge on questions concerning cross-national differences: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
What Can We Learn about the Effects of Democracy Using Cross-National Data? | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
What Can We Learn about the Effects of Democracy Using Cross-National Data?
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Valentin Daur @valentindaur.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
🚨 PUBLICATION ALERT 🚨 Excited to share that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! It examines voter responses to mainstream party legitimization of (former) pariah parties. A thread 👇1/n... doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org
Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond
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Morgan Le Corre Juratic @morganlcj.bsky.social · 12/01/2024
We now have a preprint!🥳 If you’re interested in understanding why radical voters’ satisfaction with democracy decreases even when they make an electoral breakthrough, we have a mixed-method paper for you with @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social Here is our draft: osf.io/7bfka 👀
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 11/01/2024
It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations. Some thoughts, if you are interested:
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Kristina Bakkær Simonsen @kristinabsimonsen.bsky.social · 20/12/2023
To all polisky and migcitsky peeps working on migration and/or ethnicity in one form or another, and who are located in or passing through Aarhus this coming spring (Feb-June): Let me know if you'd like to present or participate in the Migration & Ethnicity Workshop at Aarhus University 1/2
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Diane Bolet @dianebolet.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
Is it possible to phase out coal and still win an election? Yes! Excited that my paper w @fergusgreen.bsky.social & Mikel González-Eguino on the electoral success of JustTransition policies in coalmining communities is now available OpenAccess at the APSR doi.org/10.1017/S000... Polisky
doi.org
How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a “Just Transition Agreement” ...
How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a “Just Transition Agreement” on Spanish Election Results
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 27/11/2023
Very happy to share that “The Enforcement of Political Norms” (w/ the great @amaliaab.bsky.social) has been accepted for publication at the BJPolS @bjpols.bsky.social. The accepted version can be found at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... polisky behaviorsky
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 14/11/2023
"Does Right-Wing Violence Affect Public Support for Radical Right Parties? Evidence from Germany" Now out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with page numbers! Blog Post: theloop.ecpr.eu/right-wing-v... Full Article (Open Access): journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 25/10/2023
Happy to share that our paper on why peripheral regions vote for the radical right is now out with the APSR: tinyurl.com/4zvv67d4 A quick thread on how this idea came along and developed within the last 5 years:
tinyurl.com
Wealth of Tongues: Why Peripheral Regions Vote for the Radical Right in Germany | American Political...
Wealth of Tongues: Why Peripheral Regions Vote for the Radical Right in Germany
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Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 24/10/2023
Delighted that my paper Young People Punish Undemocratic Behavior Less Than Older People is now conditionally accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social. I show what the title suggests using a large amount of survey experimental evidence. Thread below.
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Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
The Polish elections coming up this Sunday are the most important in Europe this year - perhaps even in a decade - for anyone interested in democratic stability. This thread is about the elections and the results of a survey of N5,500 Poles fielded this week up until now.
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Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 10/10/2023
Accepted now at AJPS "Voted In, Standing Out: Public Response to Immigrants' Political Accession" with the incredible Stephanie Zonszein. Ungated draft at osf.io/xd4wk/ Polisky
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