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Jakob Kasper

@jakobkas.bsky.social
291 followers 521 following 31 posts

PhD candidate @ippad_eu, @UvA_Amsterdam | Formerly MSc Psychology @Uniheidelberg | jakobkasper.com

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Reposted by Jakob Kasper
Hot Politics Lab @hotpoliticslab.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This Friday (25.09), we have a Graduate Friday session at the #HotPoliticsLab! @jakobkas.bsky.social will give a talk on depolarization interventions and democratic judgement, and Gustavo Couto de Jesus on implicit approach and avoidance in politics. 📍 Location: REC-B9.22 💻 Or join online 👉
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Reposted by Jakob Kasper
Framework for Open and Reproducible Research Training @forrt.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Peer review is a gift researchers give to the field, worth >$1B globally in 2020. Imagine if more of that generosity flowed straight back into the scholar-led journals that make research free to read and free to publish. Help build that future, become a diamond reviewer forrt.org/diamond-reviewer
A hexagonal badge with a diamond and the words "diamond reviewer" below it.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Extremely impressive field experiment by @nmalhotra.bsky.social et al. had few effects on election attitudes among conservatives in TX despite being "exposed to an average of 20 online videos, 18.5 cable TV videos, 23.9 display ads, 3 text messages, and 3 postcards" www.science.org/doi/full/10....
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Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
So "cancel culture" is just, like, over... right? It seems like ppl have decided that they can just ignore the online criticism and if the institutions who actually hold power continue to back them, they can just do whatever they want.
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Larissa Knöchelmann @lknochelmann.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
What's better than starting #DGPs2026 with a theoretical comparison and validation paper on affective polarization? 🤓 Right - attending this session and then the other nine of our coupled symposium 🔥 See you tomorrow!
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/07/2026
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework

Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience samples—most notably students and, increasingly, online participants—with a tendency to either (implicitly) assume representativeness without substantive justification, or to acknowledge a lack of it only in passing. In contrast, researchers rarely engage with the actual implications for their inferences, which undermines the generalisability of psychological findings. Critically, representativeness must be defined with respect to variables relevant to the target of inference, rather than superficial demographic diversity. Here we present the Total Survey Error (TSE) framework as a methodological tool that systematically addresses the multifaceted sources of error—particularly those related to representation—that emerge throughout the research cycle. Although TSE originated in survey research, its principles are broadly applicable to any psychological study seeking inference from sample to population. We offer practical strategies for identifying, preventing, and mitigating representation errors to improve the credibility and generalisability of psychological research.

Illustration of the total survey error framework with the representation strand highlighted. It shows how coverage error, sampling error and non-response error arise during the sampling process.
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
One week left to apply for this PhD position in my project on citizens’ role in democracy ⬇️⬇️
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Isabella Rebasso @isabellareb.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Very belatedly sharing this because the last months were busy: The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions is out in Political Psychology! @gijsschumacher.bsky.social, @mrooduijn.bsky.social and I ask whether appraisal theories of emotion work the same way in politics as in everyday life.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The limits of appraisal theory for political emotions: Evidence from two U.S. surveys
Emotions, such as anger and anxiety, play a central role in political behavior and are extensively studied by political scientists. However, political science has largely adopted psychological theori...
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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 07/07/2026
‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...
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Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · 22/06/2026
Representativeness and response validity across nine opt-in online samples
dlvr.it
Representativeness and response validity across nine opt-in online samples
Nature Human Behaviour, Published online: 22 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02438-zStagnaro et al. compare nine opt-in participant samples on measures of response validity, representativeness and professionalism. They find substantial variation across samples and offer guidance for choosing samples based on the research question.
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Joe Phillips @polpsychjoe.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
doi.org
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
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Matthijs Rooduijn @mrooduijn.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Today we launch the new version of The PopuList! The PopuList provides an overview of far-left, far-right and populist parties in 31 European countries from 1989 until 1 May 2026. Explore the new website here: popu-list.org
popu-list.org
Home - The PopuList
The PopuList Interactive Version 4.0 Static Version 4.0 CSV Version 4.0 What is the PopuList? The PopuList offers researchers, journalists, […]
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Hot Politics Lab @hotpoliticslab.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
🎓 This Friday (June 26), we will wrap up the academic year! We're delighted to welcome Ili Ma in the #HotPoliticsLab, who will give a talk on social media and social connectedness among adolescents. 📍 Location: Common Room (REC-B9.22) 💻 Or join us online 👉 teams.microsoft.com/dl/launcher/...
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Tobias Widmann @twidmann.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
📢 I’m hiring 2 three-year postdocs at Dept of Political Science, @au.dk! Come work with me on The Politics of Shaming and Shamelessness — a new project on elite rhetoric, emotions, norms, hostility and political violence. Deadline: 31 August 2026 Start: Dec 2026–Feb 2027 Please share widely! 🙏
international.au.dk
2 three-year postdocs in political communication and political psychology at Aarhus University - Vacancy at Aarhus University
Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University
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Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
What can surveys miss when respondents choose the same answer option? In this pre-print, we argue that public opinion research needs not only to know where respondents stand, but how they think. AI Conversational Interviewing is one way to make that observable at scale
AI Conversational Interviewing: Scaling Up Semi-Structured and In-depth Interviews
Public opinion research has long faced a trade-off between depth and scale: standardized surveys enable large-scale measurement but restrict respondents to researcher-defined categories, obscuring the diversity of unexpected considerations that underlie public sentiment. More conversational interviews provide richer insights through open-ended probing, but their reliance on trained human interviewers has kept them difficult to scale. This study introduces AI Conversational Interviewing as a method for collecting open-ended public opinion data at scale, pursuing three objectives: to demonstrate the analytical value of conversational text data for questions beyond the reach of closed-ended items; to assess the method's practical viability through participants' own evaluations; and to inform implementation by experimentally comparing voice-based, chat-based, and free-choice interview modes. We conducted a study combining an AI-led interview with a standardized survey on migration policy among 571 respondents recruited via Prolific and Payback Panel. The findings establish AI Conversational Interviewing as a viable and valuable addition to the social-science toolkit. The conversational transcripts surface considerations and reasoning that a comprehensive standardized battery does not capture such as markedly different mental models of migration among subgroups with similar attitudes levels. Among respondents who completed the interview, evaluations of the AI interview were at or above those of the standardized survey across modes, although completion itself varied by condition. By releasing open data and open-source pipeline materials, the study contributes to a growing literature on harnessing artificial intelligence to expand the methods of public opinion measurement.
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Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
A lot of people are rightfully dunking on Rainn Wilson for being miscalibrated about political correctness HOWEVER, his impulses are quite common. Most people overestimate what is likely to get them canceled. Check out this new paper with @jakobkas.bsky.social : bsky.app/profile/jako...
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Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Cancel culture has taken over social media... or has it? In a new paper, Randy T. Lee, Jabin Binnendyk, @gordpennycook.bsky.social, Ovul Sezer, and I found that people overestimate support for "cancellation": doi.org/10.31234/osf...
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
All I will say is that today's results are the very predictable outcome of Labour's strategic decisions. Most of them without any pressure to do so. This is true for both the big losses to the Greens and the normalization and legitimation of Reform.
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Like many other European social democratic parties, Labour is moving right on immigration, certainly driven by the recent success of Reform. We have researched this question for years now. There is an abundance of evidence of why this isn't a good strategy. A thread summarizing some of our research
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Tobia Spampatti, PhD @tspampatti.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
The dilemma of balancing freedom of expression against limiting the spread of misinformation defines speech governance in today's information ecosystems. In our new preprint, we argue that speech governance may be a new cleavage of ideological polarization osf.io/preprints/ps... 1/
osf.io
OSF
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
ICE is everywhere. In 2022, ICE made arrests in 30% of counties. In 2025, ICE made arrests in 62% of counties. We ask: Do ICE arrests spark political action? Theory and prior evidence suggest it should. We find that ICE activity mostly does not mobilize citizens.
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
🚨 Western democracies are often described as polarized. @katharinalawall.bsky.social, @mtsakiris.bsky.social + I study how polarization actually feels. Now published in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, we asked citizens in 5 European countries to report their emotions ⬇️ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 27/04/2026
Does far-right legislative representation change the descriptive make-up of candidate lists among mainstream parties? Using a RDD with registry data from Sweden, this paper led by @grahn.bsky.social provides an answer doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
doi.org
Does far-right legislative entry affect minority candidate diversity? | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Does far-right legislative entry affect minority candidate diversity?
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Gustavo Couto de Jesus @gustavocjesus.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
1/7 When does our disagreement with politicians start? 🤨 In our new preprint with @bnbakker.bsky.social, @gijsschumacher.bsky.social & Joe Bathelt, we find that incongruence may be rooted in preconscious perception, emerging at 150ms, well before conscious evaluation: osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Kirstan Brodie @kirstanbrodie.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Can reasoned arguments shift moral behavior? In a new preprint, @eschwitz.bsky.social, Jason Nemirow, @fierycushman.bsky.social and I explore this question in the context of charitable donation. (1/10)
Title: Philosophical Arguments Can Boost Charitable Giving
Authors: Kirstan Brodie, Eric Schwitzgebel, Jason Nemirow, and Fiery Cushman
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Hot Politics Lab @hotpoliticslab.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
This Friday (10.04), there's another Graduate Friday at the #HotPoliticsLab! @jakobkas.bsky.social will give a talk on attitudes towards voting age, and Gustavo Couto de Jesus on brain responses to political messaging. 📍 Location: REC-B9.22 💻 Or online 👉 teams.microsoft.com/dl/launcher/...
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In-Mind: Psychology for You! @in-mindmagazine.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
🔔 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁: 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘆 🔔 How important is our political view for how we define ourselves? In his blog post, @jakobkas.bsky.social presents that politics is a minor factor in shaping our identity, and demonstrates how this knowledge could help bridge political divides.
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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social): Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.
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Aaron Lob @aaronlob.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Check out this research lead by Olivia Fischer and @renatofrey.mstdn.science.ap.brid.gy with cool insights into risky choices people face in real life!
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
“Not all polarization is equivalent nor undesirable” New preprint by Felipe Vilanova and @flavioazevedo.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/ps...
Abstract: This piece critiques the dominant assumption in social and political psychology, as well as in political science and other disciplines, that polarization is inherently undesirable and should therefore be reduced under all circumstances. We argue that this premise reflects a neutrality bias (or depoliticizing bias) that obscures the asymmetrical nature of contemporary political conflict. We distinguish democratic polarization—agonistic contestation among actors who accept multicultural pluralism, democratic institutions and election outcomes, civil and human rights, and epistemic accountability—from anti-democratic polarization, in which conflict is strategically mobilized to delegitimize opponents, erode institutional constraints, and normalize dehumanization, scapegoating, misinformation, anti-scientific, and conspiratorial narratives as a route to political power. In a global context marked by the growing...
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Robb Willer @robbwiller.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
🚨New WP: Can an AI voter guide (grounded in information from a nonpartisan, fact-checked source) help voters’ decision making? 🚨 We built and evaluated an LLM-based chatbot that provided voting info in CA & TX (N=2,474) right before the 2024 election. 🧵👇
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Fabio Votta📊🐧 @favstats.eu · 05/02/2026
🚀 dashboardr is out! An #rstats package for building interactive dashboards with tidyverse-style syntax. Launched with a fun hackathon at @ascor.bsky.social (🍕 included). 📦: favstats.github.io/dashboardr/ Big thanks to the dashboardr team, Digicomlab, and @vivifabrien.bsky.social for the logo 🎨
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Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Politics Doesn’t Define How Most People See Themselves I’ve written a blog post just published by The Inquisitive Mind. Link: www.in-mind.org/blog/post/po... Very brief summary in the thread.
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Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Do negative encounters with immigrants activate personality effects in PRR support? @cvalebeek.bsky.social, Daniel Komáromy, @delaneypeterson.bsky.social & @mrooduijn.bsky.social find it's not generally the case but initial exposure & out-group framing may matter: buff.ly/D5C50zO (OPEN ACCESS)
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Kristian Steensen Nielsen @kristiansn89.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
🌍 New megastudy on what motivates people to engage in climate advocacy 🥳 We tested 17 theory-driven behavior change interventions to increase public, political, and financial #climate advocacy in the United States (N = 31,324). academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
academic.oup.com
A megastudy of behavioral interventions to catalyze public, political, and financial climate advocacy
Abstract. Addressing climate change depends on large-scale system changes, which require public advocacy. Here, we identified and tested 17 expert-crowdsou
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Peder M Isager @isager.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New blog post introducing Causion - a web app for causal inference teaching and learning: pedermisager.org/blog/causion....
pedermisager.org
Introducing Causion: A web app for playing with DAGs | Peder M. Isager
Personal website of Dr. Peder M. Isager
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Stop Formatting Before the Desk Reject Proposal from @bnbakker.bsky.social and @jakobkas.bsky.social for a staged submission process when submitting manuscripts to academic journals. #AcademicSky #PhDSky #AcWri
blog.trialanderror.org
Stop Formatting Before the Desk Reject: A Proposal for Staged Submissions
Many flagship journals reject most manuscripts at the desk-review stage, with rates of 40–80% being common
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Daniel Heck @danielheck.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New preprint by @semihaktepe.bsky.social 🎉 We compare ANOVA/SDT/GLMM for binary judgments in 20 datasets of the truth effect. #lme4 Main conclusion: "GLMMs are a theoretically sound and practically robust method and thus superior for analyzing binary judgments in social and cognitive psychology.”
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Cailin O’Connor @cailinmeister.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Who is the Big Tobacco of today? In new work, we find 50% of high profile social media papers are connected to big tech through funding, collaboration and employment. Most connections aren't disclosed. @jbakcoleman.bsky.social @jevinwest.bsky.social @carlbergstrom.com 1 arxiv.org/abs/2601.11507
arxiv.org
Industry Influence in High-Profile Social Media Research
To what extent is social media research independent from industry influence? Leveraging openly available data, we show that half of the research published in top journals has disclosable ties to indus...
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Ever wonder what proportion of high profile social media research is tied to the tech industry? New from me, @cailinmeister.bsky.social, @jevinwest.bsky.social and @carlbergstrom.com. Thread tomorrow. arxiv.org/abs/2601.11507
arxiv.org
Industry Influence in High-Profile Social Media Research
To what extent is social media research independent from industry influence? Leveraging openly available data, we show that half of the research published in top journals has disclosable ties to indus...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 15/01/2026
I started reading up on the whole "loneliness pandemic" narrative because this seems like a literature where the age-period-cohort problem may be relevant (or maybe it isn't?). Here's data from Australia (HILDA), average agreement with the statement "I often feel very lonely" (SD of ca. 1.8).>
Average agreement with the statement "I often feel very lonely" plotted over time
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
So the US administration considers hate speech and disinformation “American viewpoints“? 🙄 HateAid is an organization that also helps climate scientists to defend themselves against online abuse and threats. Its founder was awarded the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany 🇩🇪 this year.
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Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵 We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them? Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇 doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
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Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨 We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...
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Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ @poqjournal.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Partisanship has positive and negative contributions to representative democracies. In POQ, Kasper & Bakker review Bankert's book, which explores how we can amplify the positive impacts while mitigating the negative ones. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
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Jamie Cummins @jamiecummins.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Just published in Behavior Research Methods: The individual-level precision of implicit measures w/ @ianhussey.mmmdata.io 🧵👇 link.springer.com/article/10.3...
link.springer.com
The individual-level precision of implicit measures - Behavior Research Methods
Implicit measures are used extensively in psychological science. One fundamental goal of these measures is to provide information diagnostic of an individual’s attitudes or beliefs. After 25 years of ...
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David Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨 AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp 🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK 🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks) 🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy 🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
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Carolina Torreblanca @carotorreblanca.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf... 🧵
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Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Excited to share a new preprint with @bnbakker.bsky.social, @ylelkes.bsky.social & @gijsschumacher.bsky.social! doi.org/10.31234/osf... Affective polarization research focuses almost exclusively on valence, despite affect having at least two core dimensions. We show that emotional arousal matters!
doi.org
OSF
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Cas Mudde spells out what has become largely the consensus among researchers: moving right on immigration will not weaken the far right nor strengthen social democracy. If your reaction is "but in Denmark" please at least familiarize yourself with Danish politics www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
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