iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 23h

It was the correct move, Don Mattingly made a correct bullpen move. He put his closer in for the 7th and 8th because it was the best chance to see the 9th. Duran piped a 99.9 mph fastball that got hit. There is a litany of managers who lost with their closer standing in the bullpen.

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Bradford Pearson @bradfordpearson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

shoving all my work aside to report out what led to this sign

a sign that reads DO NOT OUT NOODLES IN THE WATER FOUNTAIN!!

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 29/09/2026

Padres superstar reliever Mason Miller is very good, but the Cubs were one of the rare teams to hit him this year. In 2.2 innings over 3 games, the Cubs got 5 hits, a walk, and scored 2 runs, while only striking out twice. Small sample, past results are no guarantee, etc., but interesting.

Table of Mason Miller's 2026 results by team.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 29/09/2026

In this week's Economist / YouGov Poll, Democratic candidates have a 16-point lead among likely voters. That's bigger than they ever got in 2018. My @today.yougov.com writeup, with lots of charts: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Democrats have a bigger lead among likely voters in 2026 than they had with a similar group at any point in the 2018 midterms."

The chart has the sub-headline: "In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live? (% who say the Democratic candidate minus the % who say the Republican candidate)."

The chart has the note: "Note: 2026 likely voters are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted.
The 2018 group is defined as similar to 2026 likely voters: registered voters who said they will definitely vote in that year's congressional elections. Responses of "other," "not sure," "I would not vote," and "I will not vote" are not shown."

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Ryan North @ryannorth.ca · 28/09/2026

came across this classic ASW and i gotta say: STILL GREAT www.asofterworld.com/index.php?id...

I figured out how to be happy / but I can't tell you. / You not knowing is a big part of it.

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Ed Maibach @maibached.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Happy Stanislav Petrov Day He passed in 2017. As Encyclopedia Britannica puts it, “He is survived by his two children, two grandchildren, and the entire human race.” If you don't know his story, please take 3 minutes now to learn it. @gchalliance.bsky.social @docsforclimate.bsky.social

sammatey.substack.com

Happy Stanislav Petrov Day

Take five minutes to not destroy civilization

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Marc Normandin @marcnormandin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Every few months we get people extrapolating from a sports clip to determine some guy in the stands needs to get dumped and his wife/girlfriend to upgrade, and every time there's a post-din reveal that says quite a few of you need to touch grass

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ProPublica @propublica.org · 26/09/2026

Hey, ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson here. I’m taking over the account to tell you about my new story. For months, I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company's "responsible gaming" safeguards. Spoiler alert: They made me a VIP — and I lost $10K. Here's how it all went down. 🧵

Selfie taken by ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson, a man wearing a backwards baseball cap and an orange T-shirt.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Since St. Paul insists on making me pay attention to it's mayor's office, can someone more tuned in than I to local politics refresh me on what issues the last mayoral election turned on? Was it left vs. center-left? YIMBY/NIMBY? General discontent? Personal grievances? Ethnic coalitions?

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Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I'm not falling for that quote from a New York Times focus group participant. that's clearly someone with a fetish for not following politics as closely as I do. I refuse to participate in that kind of normal behavior

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

You really do go through the full range of emotions here as 35-year-old Kevin Gausman makes a heads-up, athletic, diving play to get a crucial out, then has to spend a minute doubled over before he can stand up all the way again

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Solomon @solomonrmissouri.com · 24/09/2026

lol lol lol lol lol lol lol

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)

Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.

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Ryan North @ryannorth.ca · 23/09/2026

Pompeii is a UNESCO world heritage site not because it was remarkable in its prime, but because it survived to our era untouched: one moment, preserved for all time. But future generations won't know what OUR world was like unless we do the same. This is why we MUST bury Toronto with a volcano

Picture of the streets of Pompeii, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pompei_-_panoramio_(26).jpg. Taken by Tanya Dedyukhina, used under CC

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The Onion @theonion.com · 23/09/2026

Mr. Autumn Man Walking Down Street With Cup Of Coffee, Wearing Sweater Over Plaid Collared Shirt theonion.com/mr-autumn-man-walking-…

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Kathryn VanArendonk @kvanaren.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

this is not paywalls, fyi - this chart looks roughly the same for sites that have had paywalls since long before 2022. this is all former SEO traffic that has now vanished in exchange for ai search summaries

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Sam Bernero @sambernero.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Pic I took of Alex Bregman arriving at Wrigley Field this afternoon. He gave me a thumbs up. I thought his eye and face looked better than in the Pic he posted yesterday. Continued 🙏🙏 for a speedy recovery for Alex.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

every generation gets the Horse_ebooks it deserves

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

Last night, the fun of trying to explain to a bewildered and increasingly frustrated 19-month-old why the fact that it's 3:30 a.m. has any bearing on why Mommy and Daddy won't come play with her.

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The French History Podcast @fhp.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

#OTD 22 September 1792 The first new day of the Republican calendar begins. The day was called Primidi Vendémiaire of Year One.

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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Interesting hypotheticals here from a recent YouGov survey in @dhmontgomery.com's Surveyor newsletter. The 10 point "not sure" range for the DSA/MAGA split is I think important to keep in mind alongside the actual choice splits. yougovamerica.substack.com/p/democrats-...

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

New in this week's Economist / YouGov Poll: a 14-point lead for Democrats among likely voters. The full analysis of our latest congressional polling: yougovamerica.substack.com/p/democrats-...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "How many Americans plan to vote for Democrats and Republicans for Congress in 2026."

The chart has the sub-headline: "In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live? (%)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Likely voters are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted. The displayed question has been used since the August 14 - 17, 2026 survey. Prior surveys asked the question, "If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" Responses of "other," "not sure," "I would not vote," and "I will not vote" are not shown."

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W. David Marx @wdavidmarx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I haven't published a newsletter in nine months, but I did today. Here is a new one about the fact that we no longer live in a world where the appreciation for fine art is a sinister tool of class distinction: culture.ghost.io/good-taste-i...

culture.ghost.io

Good Taste is Not What’s Oppressing Us in 2026

In an age where Donald Trump and tech barons hold the most political and economic power, Pierre Bourdieu’s ideas based on 1960s French Old Money may no longer provide the best guidance towards the eth...

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

After posting this last year, I bought a pair of Glerups slip-ons. Which were very comfy and lovely — for about 8 months of daily use. Now they're starting to fall apart. So I'll re-up my call for recommendations of a durable and comfortable year-round men's slipper.

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The Pub-Liking Universal Friend @johnb78.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Bluesky remains unbeaten

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 21/09/2026

This viral screenshot crops off the footer specifying this is a poll of *Democrats*, not all Americans. If you share a screenshot of a poll chart of table, include the entire graphic. Cutting off credit lines in particular is pernicious and common.

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It's Craigin' Time @cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com · 21/09/2026

I didn't even know Comerica was a bank. It was that seamless.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 21/09/2026

"There is always time for another last minute" is a great life philosophy.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 21/09/2026

Importantly, in 2033 the *original* version of The Hobbit enters the public domain. The revised version we know today — where the Riddles in the Dark chapter features a menacing Gollum & a creepy Ring, instead of the more light-hearted original — didn't publish until 15 years later.

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Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 20/09/2026

This thing I made two years ago continues to hold up pretty well

AI and consciousness political 2D grid.

Authoritarian
Al is not conscious and neither am I
Authoritarian
Left
Al is conscious but l am not
Authoritarian
Right
Economic-
Left
Economic-Right
Libertarian
Left
I am conscious but Al is not
Libertarian
Right
I am conscious and so is Al
Libertarian

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John Oxley @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk · 20/09/2026

Instagram appears to be showing me headlines from 1642.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 20/09/2026

How’s the Cubs’ season going? Well, when their bullpen doesn’t give up any runs in a game, that’s headline news:

Screenshot of an article headline: “Cubs' bullpen bands together to deliver clutch scoreless showing”

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Victor Tatarskiy @greenrat.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Was listening to the amazing Beforecast by @adapalmer.bsky.social (a season all about and around Machiavelli!) and she mentioned that Wiki had to invent a new format for war sides because of the War of the League of Cambrai) , and yeah:

War of the League of Cambrai sides with Venice and Papal states changing sides four times in total and ending on the other sides of the war from which they started

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g0m @g0m.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

A world where a twist ending is repurposed as a video title. where a thing's climax has been removed, leaving an advertisment for the gap where it used to be. such things are commonplace in. the twilight zone

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Will Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

It's time. Time to write about this style of writing. Which I've done here. substack.com/home/post/p-...

substack.com

What is LinkedIn?

The rise of mindful slop

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Larissa Kelly @larissakelly.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

lmao Hugging Face is named after the 🤗 emoji, all this time I've just been assuming it was the facehuggers from ALIEN

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Ed @ed3d.net · 19/09/2026

a YouTube commenter complained that I was working from a script and I’m like I have bad news for you about literally everything you watch that is informational and not terrible

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 19/09/2026

June 3, 1944 (three days before the D-Day landings) a mistake by a 22-year-old British teletype operator accidentally announced that the Allies had landed in France. A retraction went out 2 minutes later, but the news had already been announced on live radio & in ballparks.

A screenshot of a June 4, 1944 New York Times article titled: "False Invasion Report Stirs U.S.; Associated Press Explains Error"

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 18/09/2026

"Gauging popular opinion and holding elections in autocratic nations like Russia may seem irrelevant, but political scientists have largely found the opposite to be true."

nytimes.com

Why Autocrats Care What People Think

Russia is staging an election that matters to almost no one — except President Vladimir V. Putin and his inner circle.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 18/09/2026

I'm live right now, talking about my most recent episode!

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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I feel like this needs saying: we do know how you beat the Houthis. You send a large, fairly capable ground army into Yemen and force them to ground. The 'problem' is that no one with an army (USA) wants to do that and no one who might want to do that (Saudis) has a good army.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 17/09/2026

“When a person lives far from the heart of things where great minds scintillate… one’s education grows old and one’s taste withers & stagnates like a pool of water. Without exercise, the passions grow small, and they begin to make trivial things important.” — Balzac, Illusions Perdue

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Kelly Bodwin @kellybodwin.com · 16/09/2026

This talk by @tigertang.bsky.social is my favorite of #positconf2026 so far, and is going in my "instant classics" pile: tigertang.org/posit_2026/ It's a super clear, actionable framework for how learning happens and how AI can be used to help not hinder. ✨

A slide with the text: imitate → Internalize → Transfer

A slide with the text: The Mastery Test

Can l
EXPLAIN IT? In my own words.

Can l
CHANGE IT?

When things change,
Can I use it
SOMEWHERE NEW?
On new problems.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 16/09/2026

In hindsight, we should have stopped Faine back when it was just Alf and Gandalf.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 15/09/2026

I had to configure an inbox rule this week to block iLands solicitations. The first one was kind of fun, the next 30 with rapidly diminishing returns.

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