iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Ryan Teague Beckwith @ryanbeckwith.bsky.social · 9h

One of my rules of thumb is that when a president says they just didn’t do a good job of getting the word out, it’s mostly over

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Phillip Maciak @pjmaciak.bsky.social · 14h

The most (creatively) successful shows in the "extended universe" era — ANDOR! WANDAVISION! WATCHMEN! — have been shows that get far enough away the canonical lore that they can make radical changes in tone/style/characterization, building new stuff without tearing down existing infrastructure. 2/x

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The Siècle history podcast @thesiecle.com · 10h

Well, in 2018 I thought I'd start a little history podcast to occupy my time in between jobs. 552,000 words later...

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Boo!-per Lund @cooperlund.online · 13h

Hey somebody wake up the Green Day guy

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 13h

As someone who works with this kind of data (see: yougov.com/en-us/articl...) this kind of survey chatbot is trickier than it seems like it should be! You want to be conservative in designing them, because endless "tell me more" questions are better than the chatbot saying something offensive/wrong

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Scare-ah @slwein.bsky.social · 14h

I never thought I’d be in a position to defend Craig Counsell but people thinking he’s doing a bad job with the Cubs are unserious people.

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It's Craigin' Time @cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com · 01/10/2026

between flemming, deshaies, and grant I gotta say I don't think I've heard more positive talk about baseball and how exciting it is and what makes it fun. really lovely thing to hear during a broadcast.

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 17h

I don't have the physics knowledge to estimate how far Liberty Biberty would travel if you hit him with a bat, assuming his endoskeleton is roughly the size and density of a baseball. But if I did, I'd be writing about it, and if someone qualified did write about it, I'd read it

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 01/10/2026

Reminds me of the cardboard toy “laptop” I made for myself as an 8-year-old in the mid-90s, which had a built-in printer.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

lol, this is not incorrect, but the real question, as always, is "trust it to do what" have realistic expectations for your data and you'll get more out of it!

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 30/09/2026

Reminds me of Jeremy Strandberg's experiment, distilling Dungeon World down to just "Defy Danger": drive.google.com/file/d/1DRVi...

drive.google.com

Defying Danger RPG.pdf

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It was the correct move, Don Mattingly made a correct bullpen move. He put his closer in for the 7th and 8th because it was the best chance to see the 9th. Duran piped a 99.9 mph fastball that got hit. There is a litany of managers who lost with their closer standing in the bullpen.

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Bradford Pearson @bradfordpearson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

shoving all my work aside to report out what led to this sign

a sign that reads DO NOT OUT NOODLES IN THE WATER FOUNTAIN!!

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 29/09/2026

Padres superstar reliever Mason Miller is very good, but the Cubs were one of the rare teams to hit him this year. In 2.2 innings over 3 games, the Cubs got 5 hits, a walk, and scored 2 runs, while only striking out twice. Small sample, past results are no guarantee, etc., but interesting.

Table of Mason Miller's 2026 results by team.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 29/09/2026

In this week's Economist / YouGov Poll, Democratic candidates have a 16-point lead among likely voters. That's bigger than they ever got in 2018. My @today.yougov.com writeup, with lots of charts: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Democrats have a bigger lead among likely voters in 2026 than they had with a similar group at any point in the 2018 midterms."

The chart has the sub-headline: "In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live? (% who say the Democratic candidate minus the % who say the Republican candidate)."

The chart has the note: "Note: 2026 likely voters are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted.
The 2018 group is defined as similar to 2026 likely voters: registered voters who said they will definitely vote in that year's congressional elections. Responses of "other," "not sure," "I would not vote," and "I will not vote" are not shown."

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Ryan North @ryannorth.ca · 28/09/2026

came across this classic ASW and i gotta say: STILL GREAT www.asofterworld.com/index.php?id...

I figured out how to be happy / but I can't tell you. / You not knowing is a big part of it.

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Ed Maibach @maibached.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Happy Stanislav Petrov Day He passed in 2017. As Encyclopedia Britannica puts it, “He is survived by his two children, two grandchildren, and the entire human race.” If you don't know his story, please take 3 minutes now to learn it. @gchalliance.bsky.social @docsforclimate.bsky.social

sammatey.substack.com

Happy Stanislav Petrov Day

Take five minutes to not destroy civilization

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Marc Normandin @marcnormandin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Every few months we get people extrapolating from a sports clip to determine some guy in the stands needs to get dumped and his wife/girlfriend to upgrade, and every time there's a post-din reveal that says quite a few of you need to touch grass

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ProPublica @propublica.org · 26/09/2026

Hey, ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson here. I’m taking over the account to tell you about my new story. For months, I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company's "responsible gaming" safeguards. Spoiler alert: They made me a VIP — and I lost $10K. Here's how it all went down. 🧵

Selfie taken by ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson, a man wearing a backwards baseball cap and an orange T-shirt.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

This matters more when comparing, like, urban areas vs. rural areas in statewide votes. But I can see it being important in a close urban election.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Some precincts have more voters than others. Winning 80% of the vote in a small precinct might net you fewer votes over your opponent than winning 55% of a big precinct. Percentages are important, but raw vote totals (and vote margins) are arguably more important for considering why someone won.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Percentages or raw vote margins?

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Best I can do is campaign on building a bike path through the Black Hart's patio.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Can't be fairly blamed, perhaps! But we're talking about justifications people might have had for voting, which aren't always fair or rational.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Didn't your business publicly have a lot of frustrations dealing with Carter's administration? (Not saying that was his fault or anything, just trying to piece things together as a distant observer.)

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

That explains why nothing sank in for me despite reading some coverage and discussion of the campaign.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

I know that spurred a lot of noise and opposition, but it really swayed a significant number of votes?

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 26/09/2026

Since St. Paul insists on making me pay attention to it's mayor's office, can someone more tuned in than I to local politics refresh me on what issues the last mayoral election turned on? Was it left vs. center-left? YIMBY/NIMBY? General discontent? Personal grievances? Ethnic coalitions?

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Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I'm not falling for that quote from a New York Times focus group participant. that's clearly someone with a fetish for not following politics as closely as I do. I refuse to participate in that kind of normal behavior

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

You really do go through the full range of emotions here as 35-year-old Kevin Gausman makes a heads-up, athletic, diving play to get a crucial out, then has to spend a minute doubled over before he can stand up all the way again

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Solomon @solomonrmissouri.com · 24/09/2026

lol lol lol lol lol lol lol

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)

Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.

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Ryan North @ryannorth.ca · 23/09/2026

Pompeii is a UNESCO world heritage site not because it was remarkable in its prime, but because it survived to our era untouched: one moment, preserved for all time. But future generations won't know what OUR world was like unless we do the same. This is why we MUST bury Toronto with a volcano

Picture of the streets of Pompeii, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pompei_-_panoramio_(26).jpg. Taken by Tanya Dedyukhina, used under CC

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The Onion @theonion.com · 23/09/2026

Mr. Autumn Man Walking Down Street With Cup Of Coffee, Wearing Sweater Over Plaid Collared Shirt theonion.com/mr-autumn-man-walking-…

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Kathryn VanArendonk @kvanaren.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

this is not paywalls, fyi - this chart looks roughly the same for sites that have had paywalls since long before 2022. this is all former SEO traffic that has now vanished in exchange for ai search summaries

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Sam Bernero @sambernero.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Pic I took of Alex Bregman arriving at Wrigley Field this afternoon. He gave me a thumbs up. I thought his eye and face looked better than in the Pic he posted yesterday. Continued 🙏🙏 for a speedy recovery for Alex.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

every generation gets the Horse_ebooks it deserves

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

Last night, the fun of trying to explain to a bewildered and increasingly frustrated 19-month-old why the fact that it's 3:30 a.m. has any bearing on why Mommy and Daddy won't come play with her.

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The French History Podcast @fhp.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

#OTD 22 September 1792 The first new day of the Republican calendar begins. The day was called Primidi Vendémiaire of Year One.

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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Interesting hypotheticals here from a recent YouGov survey in @dhmontgomery.com's Surveyor newsletter. The 10 point "not sure" range for the DSA/MAGA split is I think important to keep in mind alongside the actual choice splits. yougovamerica.substack.com/p/democrats-...

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

New in this week's Economist / YouGov Poll: a 14-point lead for Democrats among likely voters. The full analysis of our latest congressional polling: yougovamerica.substack.com/p/democrats-...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "How many Americans plan to vote for Democrats and Republicans for Congress in 2026."

The chart has the sub-headline: "In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live? (%)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Likely voters are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted. The displayed question has been used since the August 14 - 17, 2026 survey. Prior surveys asked the question, "If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" Responses of "other," "not sure," "I would not vote," and "I will not vote" are not shown."

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

Is this significant difference from a developer who gets promoted to a managerial role and finds themselves increasingly reviewing other people's code instead of writing their own? That's maybe the more interesting question.

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David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery.com · 22/09/2026

I've found Claude Code is very powerful and reliable for cases where I've written packages of code, and ask it to examine that code, fix my mistakes, and expand my methods. My concern is that over time, the share of my codebase written by me and not AI is steadily shrinking.

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