iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Danielle Kurtzleben @titonka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The masculinity politics beat continues to be very necessary. goodauthority.substack.com/p/republican...

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Aaron Becker @aaronjbecker.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Lake Erie turned toward autumn in a single week. Every hour of its surface currents, 16 to 23 September 2026, colored by water temperature: the surface lost about 6°F in seven days. Data: NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (model) #LakeErie #GreatLakes #dataviz

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There's still more to show in the relationship between primary votes and the House popular vote! You can plot the data in graph below as a scatterplot. But a) it's obvious from the original graph this is a bad idea and b) it's not too helpful if you want to predict things. But...

A scatterplot of House popular vote margin versus national primary margin in midterm elections from 1918 to 2022. While there is a decent regression for the data, they fall in a wide band, such that any prediction you try to make will not be helpful. For instance, this year we would expect a House popular vote margin between about R +15 or so and D +12 based on the primary margin of D +11. Not useful at all!

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The Economist @economist.com · 24/09/2026

Deaths now outnumber births in reliably Republican counties for the first time since at least 1982. We explain how this may already be affecting voting patterns in America bit.ly/471apDL

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This is why diesel prices - which selectively affect Trump voters and rural areas in particular - matter for the election. www.kff.org/public-opini...

Chart showing that 59% of Republican rural voters who are dissatisfied with Trump on the economy are absolutely certain to vote, compared 79% of Republican rural voters who approve of Trump on the economy.

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

From the NYT/Press Herald/Siena Maine poll crosstabs: Maine likely voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate by 55-43. Including... 13% of those who are voting for Susan Collins. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)

Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

WSJ: The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in US history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge US infrastructure projects — such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.” (via Jefferies)

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Yesterday we showed how important primary turnout can be on a national level. But there's interesting things going on at the regional level, too. Most notably, in the core of the South, Democrats *outvoted Republicans* for the first time in decades in the primaries! (thread)

Total primary midterm votes in the core of the South from 1918 to 2022 showing a recent Democratic surge. States include VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, and TX.

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Yesterday we showed you how the sum of primary votes in all the states can predict midterm election outcomes surprisingly well. But that's not all! There's also some individual state primaries that appear to be bellwethers. Here is New Hampshire since 2002. Note the two different axes.

A graph showing the changes in primary margin in midterm years match the changes in House popular vote margin for New Hampshire. While the magnitude differs, the direction and relative change is nearly identical.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026

Yes. here you go. Trump’s approval is significantly below where it was in 2018

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

We were pretty surprised to find such a clear relationship between primary vote margins and the House popular vote stretching across decades with such different political environments. But there's some years where one zigs and the other zags. What happened there? We'll start with 1966.

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

When I first calculated these numbers a few weeks ago, the resulting prediction seemed awfully rosy! But the numbers say what the numbers say. Now, we've had a half dozen double-digit generic ballot D leads over the last week or so, culminating in a D +14 YouGov/Economist poll just this morning.

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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 22/09/2026

While we're all huffing hopium, here's a chart from my forthcoming @pspolisci.bsky.social article using data from @the-downballot.com. In the last three midterms, special election overperformance in swing districts closely tracked swing district overperformance in the general. Now look at 2026.

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Washington Post Data Team @wpdatateam.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

NEW: Megadonors have now pumped more than $1.7 billion into the midterms. The figure includes a newly disclosed $10M from the crypto billionaire Winklevoss twins, who gave MAGA Inc while crypto regulation was on the Hill. Meet all 50 of the top donors here: www.washingtonpost.com/elections/in...

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

US jet fuel prices have climbed back toward their post-Iran-conflict highs, keeping pressure on airline fuel costs. Markets @soberlook

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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

If you wanted to design a policy to hurt Trump voters in particular, a diesel fuel price increase would be very effective. Three states - WY, ND, AK - even use more diesel than gasoline. Details by state; not all use is paid for by residents of course: www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet...

Chart showing diesel usage per person in 2024 by state. At the top, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Alaska are at about 20 barrels per person for the year. The only blue states near the top of the chart are Maine and New Mexico. At the bottom is California, Florida, Delaware, Michigan, Maryland, and New Jersey, which all use about 2.5 barrels per person.

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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 18/09/2026

If it feels like every poll you’ve seen this year came from a Democratic campaign and showed a toss-up, you’re not imagining things. Dem. internals make up an all-time high share of internals this year, and are showing better margins than 2018 in red states. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why-does-e...

blog.fiftyplusone.news

Why does every poll seem to show a tossup now?

Campaigns see internal polls as tools for fundraising

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Wesleyan Media Project @wesmediaproject.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Broadcast advertising volume remains strong, despite more and more spending on digital platforms, with House and Gubernatorial-race ad volumes reaching record highs.

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Jamie Dupree @jamiedupree.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

House GOP leaders cancel votes on Thursday - sending lawmakers home later today until after the elections. That means the House can avoid a vote on the Hegseth impeachment plan from Rep. Thomas Massie R-KY.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 16/09/2026

We do this! Charts at the bottom of the linked page. D+10 is 245 seats in the House and 52 in the Senate fiftyplusone.news

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

“.. The cost of hiring an oil tanker on the industry’s benchmark trade (Middle East to the Far East) route has topped $1 million a day for the first time -- a year ago, it was less than $100,000 a day.” - @javierblas.bsky.social

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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Great case of "land doesn't vote, people do" in Sweden

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Karim Douieb @karimdouieb.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

⚡️Just finished a data story I had a lot of fun building: 25 years of Europe’s electricity mix, country by country. The number that kicked it off: in 2025, wind + solar ☀️💨 generated more electricity in the EU than all fossil fuels combined ⛽️ stories.strata.electricity-mix.jetpack.ai

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Erwan Rivault @erwanrivault.com · 10/09/2026

New data released today by Copernicus shows western Europe has just experienced its hottest summer on record, averaging 2.5°C above normal, with parts of France recording summer temperatures up to 4.5°C above average. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Map of summer temperature anomalies across Europe, with parts of France more than 4°C above average. A chart below compares western Europe's summer temperatures since 1979, showing that 2026 was the hottest summer on record, exceeding the previous 2003 record by more than 0.5°C.

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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Change in eligible voters, by race and ethnicity, since the last midterms Hispanic voters: +5.25 million (+16%) Asian voters: +2.25 million (+20%) Black voters: +1.65 million (+6%) White voters: -2.60 million (-2%) www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...

Chart showing how the number of White, Hispanic, Black and Asian eligible voters in the United States has changed since the 2022 midterm elections. The chart is based on a September 2026 Pew Research Center analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Datawrapper @datawrapper.de · 10/09/2026

What did the U.S. liquor industry look like during Prohibition? Shaylee from our support team recreated a map from the 1930s that shows key areas, hotspots, and transportation routes. 🗺️ 📍 🍻 Read more about the movement and its consequences on our blog: www.datawrapper.de/blog/prohibi...

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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

BREAKING: according to GasBuddy data, the live U.S. national average price of diesel has set a new record: $5.820/gal, surpassing the previous daily $5.819/gal all-time high that occurred June 17, 2022. (9/3/26 3:25pm ET)

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Kathleen Weldon @kathleenweldon.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Just loving these 1939 People’s Research reports. Imagine making this sort of map manually!

POPULAR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT - 1936
Showing States as they would appear if their area were proportional to the popular vote cast in 1936
Total popular vote cast - 45,646,817

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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

BLS this morning, with revised 2Q data: "The labor share, which is the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation, was 52.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest level in the series, which begins in the first quarter of 1947."

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Daniel Moser @dmoser.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Pollution levels in London after 10 years of advancing sustainable transport.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 02/09/2026

This (from Tom Wood) suggests more than just the typical thermostatic backlash is happening right now. In sixteen months, Trump and Republicans have turned the GOP’s largest party ID advantage this century into a tie for its biggest deficit

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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The Trump administration has filed 36 emergency applications since last February, which have generated 31 conclusive rulings. In those 31 rulings, the Court has voted *for* Trump in whole or in part 27 times (87.1%), and against him four times (12.9%). Here's a chart covering all of these rulings:

A (messy) Excel spreadsheet tracking all of the Trump administration's emergency applications, when they were filed, when they were decided, what kind of ruling they produced, and how each justice voted.

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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The latest from YouGov (n ~ 17.6k): Yes, everyone hates the idea of renaming Lake Ontario. Trump barely breaks 40 percent of *Republicans* and Independents barely break into the *single digits* yougov.com/en-us/daily-...

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Andy Woodruff @awoodruff.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

'tis the season* in Boston! Mind your vehicle height on Storrow Drive/Soldiers Field Road and Memorial Drive. Here's my map of some popular locations to sardine-tin the roof of your truck. (*'tis not the season. There is no season. The whole thing about students being to blame is a myth!)

A map of "Storrowing" crashes where over-height vehicles strike overpasses or signs on Storrow Drive, Soldiers Field Road, and Memorial Drive in Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts. Each overpass and sign has dots indicating the number of crashes at that location, and there is also a timeline showing crashes by date, which are spread throughout the year, with no particular concentration around university move-in dates.

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Ryan J Hollister @phaneritic.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

This is a very excellent explainer of the scientific reconstruction of the Nepal debris flow. Lots of interactive data and visuals in the report. 23 minutes between the glacial collapse/landslide before it reached the border station.⚒️

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The Siècle history podcast @thesiecle.com · 28/08/2026

This is a lovely little town in western France, capital of the Vendée department. It's called... well, in the 19th Century, the name of this little town was a contentious issue. See, succeeding governments kept renaming it in their own honor. 1/

Aerial photo of the Place Napoléon in La Roche-sur-Yon, France.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

An incredibly well-timed Landsat 9 pass captured the effects of yesterday’s catastrophic glacier collapse near the Nepal–Tibet border. The event was so massive that it was detected by seismometers around the world.

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John Carl Baker @johncarlbaker.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

This is a machine to ethnically cleanse the country - and anyone who pretends otherwise is kidding themselves

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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

How much did 2024 reflect a sustained right-ward shift in the outlooks of people of color? Not much, according to our work led by Emily Ortiz. During the election, hierarchy-sustaining orientations like social dominance became more aligned with partisanship, but this disappeared by June 2025.

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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

New article by me, @eortizospina.bsky.social, and @lcsrg.me! How elections spread, voting rights expanded, and political competition developed over the last 200 years — and billions of people won more of a say in the important decisions that affect their lives. ourworldindata.org/the-rise-of-...

ourworldindata.org

The rise of electoral democracy

How elections spread, voting rights expanded, and political competition developed around the world over the last two centuries.

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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

NEW: How much of the internet is written with AI? The overall @pewresearch.org estimate is about 10%. Of course, the internet long predates AI. If you look only at pages published in the era of popular AI chatbots, the figure rises to 35%.

pewresearch.org

How Much of the Internet Is Written With AI?

In a random sample of 10,000 webpages collected in July 2026, one-in-ten show signs of being written or substantially edited by AI.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/08/2026

Capped off by a massive flip in deep-red western PA, Democrats wrapped up the 2025-26 special election season overperforming by an average of 13 points. @donnermaps.bsky.social recaps the cycle and explains why it means Dems are in a good position to win back the House.

the-downballot.com

100+ specials since Trump’s return show Democrats in good position to reclaim the House

Democrats just closed out a formidable special election season with an astonishing flip

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

AI effects on students all in one set of figures. Makes homework super easy and fast. Make brane not think gud.

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Zach @zacharyammerman.com · 18/08/2026

Indiana’s Grand Kankakee Marsh — once one of the largest wetlands on the continent, rivalling the Everglades. It was drained starting in the 1850s and was basically entirely lost to agriculture by 1920.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

“.. Import prices for capital goods rose by 6.55% y/y in July ... the largest increase in the history of the monthly data going back to 1990.” - Schwab

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

* Why Big Tech’s AI Spending Is $3 Trillion Higher Than It Seems @wsj.com www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-...

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kim yi dionne (she/her) @dadakim.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

ICYMI earlier this week, check out this very cool reporting from the road connecting Lagos and Abidjan by @npr.org. You might think it's about a road, but it's really about democracy and development: apps.npr.org/west-africa-...

apps.npr.org

In West Africa, one road could change a continent — and the world

A 600-mile journey along the shores of Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Ivory Coast reveals one of the world's most consequential transformations.

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RJ Andrews @infowetrust.com · 15/08/2026

Comes with a nifty companion foldout.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026

So what the hell is going on with primary polling?? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-12...

gelliottmorris.com

Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average

And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time

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