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Catarina Leão

@catarinaleao.bsky.social
970 followers 577 following 72 posts

Fellow in Advanced Quantitative Methods, Department of Methodology (LSE) | DPhil in Politics (Oxford) Political Economy + Causal/Quantitative Methods catarinaleao.com

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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
"Quietly" ad nauseum.
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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
These are legitimately good post-PhD jobs for junior researchers -- we have (and have had) many fantastic young scholars as Fellows (e.g. @zachdickson.bsky.social @catarinaleao.bsky.social @lanabi.bsky.social @yuanmohe.bsky.social to name a few, along with an all star cast of alumni). Please apply!
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Orbán's concession sets an important precedent on conceding after losing/end of term. Hopefully others will take the cue.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
This.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Finally a good day for democracy. 🇭🇺
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Carl Henrik Knutsen @chknutsen.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
V-Dem v.16 is now released, w. updated scores for 2025. Most countries remain stable from 2024, but some clear improvements (on diff’t democracy indices), incl. S. Korea, Sri Lanka & Mauritius. Largest declines came, by far, in the US. This figure shows 10-yr changes on the Liberal Dem. index.
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thicc husband and father @lukeisamazing.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
how’s that going, Francis?
Walter White, labeled History, telling Better Call Saul, labeled Francis Fukuyama, “we’re done when I say we’re done”
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LSE Blogs @lseblogs.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Is hype about AI justified? Cristobal Garibay-Petersen @lse-ei.bsky.social @mlorimer.bsky.social and @neuralisa.bsky.social argue AI discourse has gone too far, limiting the space for democratic engagement with and control of the technology @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Should you believe the AI hype? Probably not
Public discourse around AI has gone beyond what its technical specifications warrant, limiting the space for democratic engagement and control.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
#Presidenciais2026 #eleicoes2026 #Portugal
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 09/02/2026
Center-left António José Seguro was elected Portugal’s next president yesterday, defeating his far-right opponent by a two-to-one margin.
politico.eu
Center left beats far right to Portugal’s presidency
Former Socialist Party leader António José Seguro defeated far-right leader André Ventura to become the country’s next head of state.
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Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 03/02/2026
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs" We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Excited about chairing @bogatyrev.bsky.social in the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar at 4pm today. Konstantin will present his paper "Shifting Ground". Come along if you are in London, or join us on Zoom: www.lse.ac.uk/government/r...
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Manuel Tonneau @manueltonneau.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Demographic cues (eg, names, dialect) are widely used to study how LLM behavior may change depending on user demographics. Such cues are often assumed interchangeable. 🚨 We show they are not: different cues yield different model behavior for the same group and different conclusions on LLM bias. 🧵👇
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Daniel Mügge @dmugge.eurosky.social · 25/11/2025
Regine Paul, Vali Stan and I have analysed how deeply #AI is entangled in global politics and corporate profit-hunting. “The AI Matrix” is the result – and the digital book-version is open access: www.agendapub.com/page/detail/... (Link doesn't work? Try this one: www.regulaite.eu/images/pdf/M...)
Book cover of "The AI Matrix" by Daniel Mügge, Regine Paul and Vali Stan, showing a world map, hands grabbing Dollar bills, a robot arm and interconnected cables
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The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 22/01/2026
Rejection doesn't have to be ego-shattering—and the people most likely to push through it tend to share a specific quality, Anna Holmes writes.
bit.ly
The Upside of Professional Rejection
There’s a better way to approach no’s in your work life.  
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 21/01/2026
Y’all were laughing, but once you leave the EU you start to miss the attached bottle caps real fast.
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Better Things Are Possible @internethippo.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Mafia goon: Nice house you got here...it'd be a shame if something happened to it Media outlets: Mafia goon rules out use of force. Expresses regret at the mere thought of it
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Madman theory but you're actually mad.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Brilliant !
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Pavlos Vasilopoulos @pavlosvas1.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
This is a great postdoc opportunity on a very interesting project on the association between discrimination and social inequality @cris-sciencespo.bsky.social www.sciencespo.fr/cris/en/news...
sciencespo.fr
CRIS is recruiting a postdoctoral researcher for the DISEQUAL project
The Discrimination-Inequality Cycle: Bridging Unequal Treatment and Unequal Outcomes across Countries, Regions and Workplaces
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
Portugal is having a presidential election tomorrow (Sunday). It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country. Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest: 1/9
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
#tugasky: não deixem de votar hoje. Todas as eleições importam e estas, num momento em que o país está a definir o panorama político no pos-bipartidarismo, não o são menos.
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Eleanor Power @eapower.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
🚨Job alert! The ENDOW project is hiring a Research Officer in Research Database Management, to be based at @lsemethodology.bsky.social. Oversee & expand our database & contribute to research on social & economic inequality. Deadline 15 February. Share & reach out! jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
The ENDOW project is seeking a Research Officer in Research Data Management to be based at the London School of Economics. 
- Oversee and extend our database covering geospatial, demographic, economic & social network data from 50+ communities in 30+ countries!
- Contribute to research on the dynamics of social and economic inequality!
- Join a stellar interdisciplinary team!
- funded by the ESRC and the NSF
[world map showing location of ENDOW communities; photos of some of the team members and some of the ENDOW communities showing their diversityResearch Officer in Research Data Management
Salary from £43,277 to £48,220 pa inclusive of London allowance
Fixed-term appointment for 18 months
This research officer position is to work with Eleanor Power as part of the ongoing "ENDOW" project (Economic Networks and the Dynamics of Wealth Inequality), funded by the UKRI and US National Science Foundation. The research officer will be based in the Department of Methodology, a leading centre for research and education in social science research methods. While we expect this to be a full-time appointment, we are open to considering the possibility of a part-time appointment.
The post entails overseeing and extending the database of the "ENDOW" project, which includes data from over fifty communities around the world, comprising economic, demographic, and social network data characterising each community, its resident households, and the individuals within them. The research officer will be responsible for the expansion of this database to include longitudinal data from each community site, implementing a robust data infrastructure to manage and curate this information. The research officer will work closely with Dr Power and data contributors to ensure data quality, standardisation, and appropriate governance. They will contribute to core analyses of the ENDOW project and develop tools and resources that will be of wide utility for the collection, curation, and analysis of cross-cultural data. This role is central to building the data infrastructure that will enable meaningful, productive comparisons across these diverse field sites and will ultimately serve as a resource for the broader scientific community.
The successful candidate will:
Have a completed PhD, be close to completing a PhD, or have other research experience that demonstrates the capability to produce independent original research
Have experience with database design, data management and data governance
Have experience with programming in R or Python
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Calling it “a regime-change war” fully obscures what’s actually happening right now. I doubt Trump is concerned with democratization as much as he is with waging a war to distract from problems at home, with oil extraction as a perk.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Very important work imo. We know surprisingly little about what “good” description actually looks like.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Repeat after me: replication papers are not the academic equivalent of diss tracks.
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ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
went to bed with a mass shooting, waking up with a different mass shooting
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Francesc Amat @cescamat.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
📢 📢 Call for Papers IV Yale–UB Historical Political Economy Workshop Organized by @Didacqueralt.bsky.social & @Cescamat.bsky.social 🎤 Keynote: Lisa Blaydes (Stanford) 📍 University of Barcelona 🗓 June 29–30, 2026 Submit your papers by Jan 21, 2026: shorturl.at/oZTNy #pleaseRT
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Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Applications are open for the best Postdoctoral position I’ve had the pleasure of holding. Two years of full-time research in the amazing AxPo community. I couldn’t recommend it more!
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY! Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩‍🏫🥳 epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
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Lanabi @lanabi.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
New paper 🚨 “Vicarious denial: war crimes & online deliberation in Serbia” 🇷🇸 with @denisakost.bsky.social We scrape 4 news sites + reader comments and blend text-as-data (keywords; neg. binomial/logistic; BERTopic/SBERT) with critical discourse analysis to track on-topic debate & denial.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
Today marks the end of my fellowship at AxPo @sciencespo.bsky.social. Grateful for the freedom to pursue my research and for the brilliant colleagues who made this journey so rewarding. In particular @oliviergodechot.bsky.social, Allison Rovny, Noam Titelman, Ulysse Lojkine, Meryem Bezzaz.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Fellow academics, I need to replace my old Mac laptop. Do you think a MacBook Air can handle R, Stata, QGIS, etc., or do I need a MacBook Pro? Many thanks for the tips!
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Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
3rd IAST-OXPO Conference in Political Economy Tomorrow, @catarinaleao.bsky.social will present her work "Past Benefits Today Keep Extremism Away. Authoritarian Privileges Withdrawal and the Emergence of Contemporary Extremism: Evidence from Post-WWII Italy". ⤵️ www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Excerpt of the programme
Friday 4 July 2025
9:00-11:00 - Session 4: Political Economy History I
9:00-10:00 Catarina Leão (Sciences Po), "Past Benefits Today Keep Extremism Away. Authoritarian Privileges Withdrawal and the Emergence of Contemporary Extremism: Evidence from Post-WWII Italy"
Discussant: Karine Van Der Straeten (IAST)
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community. 🔗 epssnet.org Here’s a thread with everything you need to know. 🧵
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Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
#EPSA2025 starts tomorrow! A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire... 👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
EPSA 2025 - Madrid
26 - 28 June 
espanet.org
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
I look forward to meeting many of you soon in Madrid for EPSA 2025. In case that’s helpful to anyone, here are some of my personal Madrid favorites:
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Looking for a last-minute #EPSA2025 Reception ticket. Happy to buy if anyone can’t make it.
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Tore Wig @torewig.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
According to «objective» democracy measures, we have learned nothing about the trajectory and state of democracy in the US since January. That strikes me as pretty damn absurd..
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
If you read just one opinion piece about the latest Portuguese election, make it this one.
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Grigore Pop-Eleches @grigopop.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
I've been running online surveys in #Romania about the presidential elections. Lots of crazy stuff but the graph below took me by surprise (and I'm someone who studies communist legacies). This is the share of the second-round vote for Simion as a function of what respondents think of Ceaușescu.
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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/05/2025
You've (probably) got mail! ✉️ Heading to #EPSA2025 in Madrid? Consider signing up to our buddy/mentor scheme that the diversity committee has set up to help first-time attendees navigate Europe's biggest political science conference Questions? Send them over to @alonadolinsky.com or me 🙂
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Overleaf is down. Use Word, or preserve your dignity by doing nothing.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Boa escolha de nome.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
It’s so funny how MAGA thinks the Pope is ‘woke’ for his views on migration and helping the poor—when that’s literally one of the most basic tenets of Christianity. The level of dissociation is off the charts.
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Catarina Leão @catarinaleao.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Amen to that
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Even established authoritarian regimes consider arresting defiant judges an extreme tactic—a serious escalation usually reserved for after one-party rule is firmly entrenched. Seeing a judge arrested in the US today should alarm everyone who values democratic governance. This cannot be allowed. 🧵
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
My first post at the newly revived @misofact.bsky.social is a nerdy take on why it seems like experts are decrying rising autocracy in thd US, but for most folks, life goes on as usual. How much authoritarianism has the US actually seen so far in Trump-II? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
When a democracy falls, do the people know?
A simple four-category test applied to acts over the first 90 days of Trump-II shows autocracy rising in the US due primarily to violations of the rule of law, which many people don't perceive.
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Clément de Chaisemartin @cdechaisemartin.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments
This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen
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