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Paul Hünermund

@p-hunermund.com
30K followers 2.6K following 7.6K posts

Professor of Empirical Economics & Data Science at TU Munich | Heilbronn Data Science Center (HDSC) | Co-founder of causalscience.org www.p-hunermund.com

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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 3h
As with AI-assisted scientific writing in general, there are permissible and non-permissible uses, and people just aren't nuanced enough about the distinction.
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 4h
"A study published in 2022 by Sweden’s Defence Research Agency did find that the three Baltic countries together accounted for almost two thirds of publicly recorded espionage convictions in Europe." Putin clearly thinks in spheres of influence and he must be stopped.
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Baltic Takes (formerly badbaltictakes) @baltictakes.com · 5h
Countries usually like to keep quiet about espionage cases. Sometimes that helps gather more counter-intelligence without revealing methods. Often though, it can just be about saving face and keeping relations uncomplicated. Those days are over: www.baltictakes.com/estonia-just...
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 11h
Social science should be more open with the fact that novelty is smaller and smaller and more constructed. In like 1950, you could be like "we don't know how congressional committees work here is my book on congressional committees". Not the case now.
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Jamin Speer @jaminspeer.bsky.social · 6h
Legit surprised he didn't keep AI but make the A stand for American
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 11h
Last day to submit for #CDSM26. Don't miss!!!
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 11h
I reached 30k followers overnight. I will use my newfound influence to say this: Coding agents are able to make beautiful graphs in base R
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Ángel Saavedra @polpsychangel.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
To people on the academic job market right now: so much of this is luck. Don't forget that, and never stop doing what you think is best.
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Jeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In case anyone is interested, here is a new working paper on non-binary treatments with staggered interventions. Essentially, I show under what assumptions it is valid to estimate cohort x time dose-response functions. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
A Heterogeneous Slopes Approach to Difference-in-Differences with Non-Binary Treatments
I extend the approach of Wooldridge (2023, 2025) to allow for heterogeneous gains to treatment in the context of staggered interventions for non-binary treatmen
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J Dierkes @dierkes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We're hiring at School of Social Sciences at Univ of Mannheim Full Professorship (W-3) in Social Data Science and Social Science Methodology Apply by Oct 22 2026 www.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/en/about/job... @methodsnet.bsky.social
sowi.uni-mannheim.de
Job Vacancies
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 29/09/2026
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was actually this checkbox
Stay signed in
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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Some days I really do wish I had one of those types of science jobs where I can just say 2 things are correlated and call it a fucking day.
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The resistance:
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I’d be curious what proportion of original authors agree with the "improves" statement
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Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Whiteboard.
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 28/09/2026
Last days to submit for #CDSM26!
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Wolfgang Huber @wkhuber.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I've been trying to respond with a personal email to every request for a PhD or Master thesis placement in my group. But with the flood of AI generated applications that's now coming in every day, this has become impossible.
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 28/09/2026
When you receive a message from Kita early in the morning
static.klipy.com
Miguel Nunez Scared in Friday the 13th Movie
ALT: Miguel Nunez Scared in Friday the 13th Movie
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Emily Riederer @emilyriederer.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
CFP for @causalscience.org closes on Wed! Selfish reminder to submit so I can watch your talk 🍿 Also remember to register; always closes before conf! IMHO everything you need to know about any flavor of DS can be learned from causal thinking (One day I will finish my drafted post on this... 🤦‍♀️) 1/
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 27/09/2026
Another Bluesky joining wave?
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Steve Cicala @stevecicala.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Paging Covert and Kellogg.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/09/2026
Now published in *Behavior Research Methods*: An LLM canary in the online data coalmine. LLMs solve Bayesian reasoning problems way better than people do. That capability gap can flag LLM contamination in online samples. rdcu.be/4Fw8jpGpkVpa
rdcu.be
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 25/09/2026
Authors and reviewers only differ these days in the types of prompts they use.
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 25/09/2026
One tip to new PhDs. You probably are worried that an audience member will "catch" some fatal flaw in your research. You should be more worried that five minutes in everyone is answering emails on their laptop. If people are engaging (even critically), it is better than not paying attention.
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Sumita Pahwa @sumitapahwa.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
One of these days I want to explain to them what character traits lead people to spend 5-7 years obsessively studying narrow topics 🤣
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The old line that analytic philosophy is answering questions that come naturally to toddlers via methods that come naturally to lawyers remains undefeated.
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 24/09/2026
I have just eaten my first Spaghettieis. It felt very unnatural to eat it with a spoon.
Spaghetti shaped ice cream
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Todd Pugatch @toddpugatch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Senior faculty member explaining why they haven't published anything in 12 years
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 24/09/2026
Great times to finance a mortgage 😣
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 24/09/2026
"Gen Z, not millenials" 🫠
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Manasvini Singh @vinisingh.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
New WP, just in time for #ASHEcon26! What started off as a project to learn LLM use for text analysis turned accidentally into a paper about stigma. [1/n]
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 24/09/2026
Is that a mug shot? 😄
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 24/09/2026
This quote by haunts me. From Wilcox's "Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing" #stats
To begin, distributions are never normal. For some this seems obvious, hardly worth mentioning, but an aphorism given by Cram´er (1946) and attributed to the mathematician Poincar´e remains relevant: “Everyone believes in the [normal] law of errors, the experimenters because they think it is a mathematical theorem, the mathematicians because they think it is an experimental fact.”
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Heather Urry @heatherurry.io · 24/09/2026
holy fucking shit - see Claude Code (Opus 5.5) rip through a survey eligility test I was really proud of... It requires tracing a route through designated points on a map with server-side Javascript applying eligibility criteria. (1.5 min video)
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 24/09/2026
Why are journal submissions so dreadful? This should be an act of celebration.
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Gautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 23/09/2026
NYU Courant professor Tristan Buckmaster, of Navier-Stokes drama fame, gave a talk at the new NYU Mathematics in the Age of AI seminar series. It was... popular.
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 24/09/2026
That's why I loathe conference dinners
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Rafael Mentges @mentges.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
European space start-ups are taking off! I guess the German space defence budget plays a role here but also the possibility of a huge increase in the EU's space budget (maybe three times the current budget). The numbers are from dealroom: dealroom.co/resources/eu...
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 23/09/2026
How corny
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Like a true interdisciplinary scholar, I've been told "you should send this to a more appropriate journal" by several disciplines
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Richard Corbett CBE @richardcorbett.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New Swedish Prime Minister, asked whether Britain should rejoin the EU: “Yes. Please. Tomorrow.” www.politico.eu/article/magd...
politico.eu
‘Sweden is back’: Magdalena Andersson has big plans for Europe
In an interview with POLITICO, Sweden’s election winner reveals her unfinished business with Russia, Trump — and the far right.
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John Mullahy @johnmullahy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Me on my first day of grad school. www.thefarside.com/2026/09/23/0
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European Space Agency @esa.int · 23/09/2026
We’re strengthening our cooperation with Mistral on artificial intelligence. Together, we’ll explore secure and trusted European AI solutions for Earth observation, engineering and the next generation of space activities.
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 23/09/2026
Just played a fun game with a client - it's called: Do I Have Real Clusters In My Data, Or Am I Conditioning On a Collider? #stats
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 23/09/2026
Amazing to consider that he started with punchcards and now uses Codex.
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Rafael Mentges @mentges.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
ZDF has seen the F-35 contracts and I am seriously shocked! In a Letter from the German Federal Ministry of Defence to the Bundestag’s Budget Committee it says “The contractual terms are dictated by the US side and are non-negotiable.”
zdfheute.de
US-Rüstungsdeals: Teure Knebelverträge für die Bundeswehr
Deutschland kauft Kampfjets in den USA. Die vertraulichen Kaufverträge zeigen: Deutschland liefert sich noch mehr der Trump-Administration aus.
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
if anyone tells you to cite my papers that is also paul
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 23/09/2026
Why do we love dogs, yet use them as an insult?
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 23/09/2026
Always referring people to @dingdingpeng.the100.ci's paper (on which I am a coauthor), so that people think she was the reviewer. 😈
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 23/09/2026
Deadline approaching: Just ine more week to submit to #CDSM26!
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