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Mischiefs of Faction

@misofact.bsky.social
459 followers 525 following 38 posts

A political science community blog, started in 2012, now in its Substack era. Subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/misofact

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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
America has a primary problem. In a new guest post on @misofact.bsky.social Rob Boatright, Caroline Tolbert, and Nathan Micahka describe the takeaway of their new book on the challenges and solutions to nominating candidates. misofact.substack.com/p/the-proble...
misofact.substack.com
The Problem with Primary Voters
We studied three million primary voters and have learned that primary voters are not representative of....anything. We have ideas about how to make candidate selection more democratic.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Primary voters do not look like general election voters, and the implications for democracy are profound. In a guest post about their new book, Rob Boatright, Caroline Tolbert, and Nathan Micatka explain how parties can improve their nominating process. misofact.substack.com/p/the-proble...
misofact.substack.com
The Problem with Primary Voters
We studied three million primary voters and have learned that primary voters are not representative of....anything. We have ideas about how to make candidate selection more democratic.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Election forecasts ask what share of the electorate will vote in November. They rarely ask who is still in the pool by Election Day. A new guest post at Mischiefs of Faction from Jiyue Wang. misofact.substack.com/p/the-2026-m...
misofact.substack.com
The 2026 midterms have a missing-electorate problem
Before asking who will show up in November, ask who is still in the pool
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
@mattngreen.bsky.social reviews John Leganski's recent book about Kevin McCarthy, "Glory, Grief, and the Gavel." misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-hag...
misofact.substack.com
How to Haggle your Way to the Speakership
John Leganski’s account of his time working for Congressman Kevin McCarthy sheds some light on why the House GOP has become so difficult to lead.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Bicameralism has long frustrated lawmakers. House Republicans who torpedoed their party's agenda this week are just the latest. A new post from @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/bicamerali...
misofact.substack.com
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
@mattngreen.bsky.social writes about the rules of political power that Trump did, and did not, follow last week. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
How to (Not) Maintain Political Power
The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
There's been lots of proposals offered lately to restore some balance between the branches. For those trying to keep track, @mattngreen.bsky.social has a running list. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Restoring Balance to our Constitutional System
A running list of reforms.
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Reflections from a political science conference--I expected a lot of chatter about US democratic failures, but there was a lot more consternation about A.I. in the academy. misofact.substack.com/p/the-most-t...
misofact.substack.com
The most-talked-about topic at a national political science conference was not what I expected
Amidst an overwhelming decline in democratic institutions over the past year, political science professors are talking more about AI than the state of affairs in the US.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
This year's MPSA chatter was not about the topic @jenvictor.bsky.social most expected. misofact.substack.com/p/the-most-t...
misofact.substack.com
The most-talked-about topic at a national political science conference was not what I expected
Amidst an overwhelming decline in democratic institutions over the past year, political science professors are talking more about AI than the state of affairs in the US.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
ICYMI: @mattngreen.bsky.social writes about how the close House vote on the special rule to consider a government funding bill went down: misofact.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
misofact.substack.com
Anatomy of a vote
Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social writes about the rise of majority party defections on discharge petitions and the weakening authority of House GOP leaders. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Discharge petitions and the fragile authority of Republican leaders
Speaker Johnson is trying to lead a House whose members increasingly reject strong party leadership.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
How much trouble is Speaker Mike Johnson in? The latest post from @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/how-much-t...
misofact.substack.com
How much trouble is Speaker Johnson in?
Johnson is likely to survive this Congress, but the speakership is not the secure position it once was.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social discusses what he got wrong -- and perhaps got right -- about the shutdown. The latest from Mischiefs of Faction. misofact.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...
misofact.substack.com
Lessons from the longest shutdown ever
What I got wrong and (arguably) got right
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Matthew Green's latest on Mischiefs of Faction: what data tell us about the types of Republicans in Congress who resist Trump -- and why do so. misofact.substack.com/p/are-member...
misofact.substack.com
Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump? Part III
Explaining GOP Resistance
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Should Senate Democrats deliberately shut down the government to stop Trump? In his latest post at Mischiefs, Matt Green argues no. misofact.substack.com/p/not-the-hi...
misofact.substack.com
Not the hill to die on
A government shutdown would not stop Trump or restore legislative democracy.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Dr. Smith helps to put Gavin Newsom's recent political surge and strategy into historical perspective at this latest MoF post. The Founders designed the system to leverage politicians' ambitions to serve as a check on power.
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Turns out it's not really true that Democrats want to fall in love (with their candidates) while Republicans fall in line. Great post at @misofact.bsky.social by @bcburden.bsky.social using cool data he, et al collected by talking to party convention delegates. misofact.substack.com/p/democrats-...
misofact.substack.com
Democrats and Republicans Disagree about What Makes a Winner
Democrats tend to think Republicans win when they moderate their position; Republicans tend to think they win when they turn out the base. Both are driving forces.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Do parties do better when they moderate to appeal to the median voter, or stick to principles? @bcburden.bsky.social shows that Republicans believe they do better sticking to principles but think Dems do better by moderating. Dems have an entirely different POV. misofact.substack.com/p/democrats-...
misofact.substack.com
Democrats and Republicans Disagree about What Makes a Winner
Democrats tend to think Republicans win when they moderate their position; Republicans tend to think they win when they turn out the base. Both are driving forces.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Matthew Green took a two-week break from the news. His thoughts on what happened in U.S. politics during that period: misofact.substack.com/p/two-weeks-...
misofact.substack.com
Two weeks in August
Some impressions of domestic politics after taking a hiatus from the news.
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Scandals and Wedge Issues: Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit. (@mattngreen.bsky.social @misofact.bsky.social) misofact.substack.com/p/scandals-a...
misofact.substack.com
Scandals and Wedge Issues
Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
To document and make sense of the executive overreach at her university, @jenvictor.bsky.social provides a timeline of key events. Transparency is the best disinfectant. misofact.substack.com/p/authoritar...
misofact.substack.com
Authoritarians are attacking universities. Here's how it's going at one public school.
I'm publicly documenting an event timeline to help bring order to the chaotic nature of events and help other schools plan the responses they are likely going to need.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Wedge issue + scandal = a politically fruitful topic for the minority party. An analysis of the Epstein papers affair by @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/scandals-a...
misofact.substack.com
Scandals and Wedge Issues
Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
What happens when societies polarize by partisanship? First the norm of mutual tolerance erodes, then institutional forbearance. The US case is textbook under Trump 2.0, explains @jenvictor.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Partisan polarization destroys democracies. Here's how.
As polarization grows, partisans struggle to respect one another, then fail to show self-restraint. Loss of these norms erodes the institutions that create free societies.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social reviews what political science literature, and his own recent research, suggests will be the electoral consequences -- if any -- of voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill. misofact.substack.com/p/will-the-o...
misofact.substack.com
Will the “One, Big Beautiful Bill” hurt Republicans in 2026?
What political science tells us.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social argues that Trump didn't bully Congress into passing last week's reconciliation bill, nor was he the only person who helped get it enacted. misofact.substack.com/p/the-big-go...
misofact.substack.com
The big GOP reconciliation bill is now law. Did Trump browbeat Congress into passing it?
The president helped get the bill across the finish line, but so did others – and Trump used tactics with lawmakers that are typical for presidents.
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
In my latest at @misofact.bsky.social I draw on political science findings to explain why Trump’s populist government passed a deeply unpopular and regressive set of policies. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Why do populist governments pass unpopular policies?
Populists don't stay in power by being popular—they stay in power by keeping people mad.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
New at Mischiefs of Faction, @jenvictor.bsky.social explains why populist governments sometimes pass very unpopular policies. Read. Share. Subscribe. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Why do populist governments pass unpopular policies?
Populists don't stay in power by being popular—they stay in power by keeping people mad.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social asks, do voters support the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill"? And if not, does it matter? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Do Voters Support the “One Big Beautiful Bill”? And Does it Matter?
Lawmakers respond to many inputs. The public’s preferences are just one of them.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social notes some early signs of resistance to Trump from congressional Republicans. misofact.substack.com/p/are-member...
misofact.substack.com
Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump? Part II
Some (Small) Signs of GOP Resistance
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
My latest at @misofact.bsky.social breaks down the audacity of the "Big Beautiful Bill" -- spending more to do less, putting the US on weak financial footing. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
What the giant House spending bill tells us about Republicans’ vision for America
Why it’s a bad idea to let the guy who bankrupted casinos run your fiscal house, in four charts.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Can the US afford the "Big Beautiful Bill?" @jenvictor.bsky.social breaks it down. [Spoiler: No.] open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
What the giant House spending bill tells us about Republicans’ vision for America
Why it’s a bad idea to let the guy who bankrupted casinos run your fiscal house, in four charts.
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Trump’s dramatic, unauthorized cuts to federal government are an executive power grab, I argue at @misofact.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
How shrinking the government adds power to the presidency
Asserting authority to cut government is DOGE's most profound accomplishment to date
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
“Trump math”—how federal cuts are an expansion of the executive power. @jenvictor.bsky.social explains. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
How shrinking the government adds power to the presidency
Asserting authority to cut government is DOGE's most profound accomplishment to date
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
Can confirm.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Playing board games is a fun hobby for many -- one that will be harmed by Trump's protectionist tariffs, as @mattngreen.bsky.social explains. misofact.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
misofact.substack.com
Tariffs and Board Games
One example of how Trump’s tariffs affect niche industries that Americans value.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
@mattngreen.bsky.social discusses some of the ways that congressional Democrats have been pushing back against Trump and the GOP - despite being in the deep minority. misofact.substack.com/p/are-member...
misofact.substack.com
Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump?
Part I: What Congressional Democrats are doing
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Heath Brown @heathbrown.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Must read this morning from @jenvictor.bsky.social @misofact.bsky.social “US Constitution is imperfect, but it has clear instructions for resolving the current crisis.” misofact.substack.com/p/the-us-cri...
misofact.substack.com
The US crisis is political, not constitutional
The Constitution provides instructions for how to resolve the crises generated by executive overreach, but partisanship thwarts the remedy.
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Can we call it a "constitutional crisis" if the Constitution clearly indicates how to resolve it? Today at @misofact.bsky.social I argue that the US is in a political crisis, not a constitutional one. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
The US crisis is political, not constitutional
The Constitution provides instructions for how to resolve the crises generated by executive overreach, but partisanship thwarts the remedy.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
New from @jenvictor.bsky.social: The governance challenges in the US are not a constitutional crisis--the Constitution is clear about how to resolve executive overreach. The problem is political. Partisans tolerate the status quo. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
The US crisis is political, not constitutional
The Constitution provides instructions for how to resolve the crises generated by executive overreach, but partisanship thwarts the remedy.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Nice! ☺️ Here's that link referenced in @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social's excellent piece: misofact.substack.com/p/when-a-dem...
misofact.substack.com
When a democracy falls, do the people know?
A simple four-category test applied to acts over the first 90 days of Trump-II shows autocracy rising in the US due primarily to violations of the rule of law, which many people don't perceive.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Putting Trump’s second term first 100 days into historical, institutional, and visual perspective, our @mattngreen.bsky.social brings the juice. Read. SUBSCRIBE. Submit. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Evaluating Trump II’s First 100 Days
Documenting a presidency unlike any other.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
Thanks for the boost, JB! The first substantive post of our ‘Substack Era’ lands #1 on the coveted Bernstein weekly links recs. ☺️
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Ian Shapiro @ianshapiro.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Rule of Law is most under threat. But, flip the graph upside down and you will see that this is because the Rule of law forms the foundation of the other categories. It shields them from more brazen, direct assaults. Great post by @jenvictor.bsky.social at the newly revived @misofact.bsky.social .
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
My first post at the newly revived @misofact.bsky.social is a nerdy take on why it seems like experts are decrying rising autocracy in thd US, but for most folks, life goes on as usual. How much authoritarianism has the US actually seen so far in Trump-II? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
When a democracy falls, do the people know?
A simple four-category test applied to acts over the first 90 days of Trump-II shows autocracy rising in the US due primarily to violations of the rule of law, which many people don't perceive.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
New @jenvictor.bsky.social asks how much authoritarian action the US has seen under Trump, and what type, using events from @olgalautman.bsky.social ‘s Trump Tyranny Tracker. Answer: quite a bit, but not necessarily the type of autocracy that’s widely felt. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
When a democracy falls, do the people know?
A simple four-category test applied to acts over the first 90 days of Trump-II shows autocracy rising in the US due primarily to violations of the rule of law, which many people don't perceive.
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Reposted by Mischiefs of Faction
Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Excellent news. Read, share, subscribe.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 22/04/2025
I'm not a regular writer there anymore. But @misofact.bsky.social is going strong, and you should subscribe to it on Substack. The new iteration is going to be awesome! misofact.substack.com
misofact.substack.com
Mischiefs of Faction | Substack
A political science blog focused on analysis of current events, managed by professors Jennifer N. Victor (George Mason U.) and Matthew N. Green (Catholic U.), editors-in-chief. Our staff list is dynam...
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
We are pleased to announce the revival of the Mischiefs of Faction, now on Substack. What started in 2012, now in it's fourth evolution, is reformed as a "community blog" for political science and related fields. Read more about our vision and subscribe. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Mischiefs of Faction, now on Substack
Now in its fourth evolutionary form, we reintroduce Mischiefs of Faction -- a political scientist's "community blog."
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
!!!!!
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