Sign in

Florian Hollenbach

@fhollenbach.org
5.3K followers 1.5K following 746 posts

Associate Prof at EGB Copenhagen Business School & Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Duke PhD. Interested in $$ in politics, state capacity, taxation, stats. Exil-Herthaner

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 17/09/2026
"Prediction markets are creating new nightmares for operational security," write @szakonyi.bsky.social, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby. They allow those with inside information to bet on national security issues, all while giving both allies and adversaries a possible heads-up.
buff.ly
Insiders are betting on war: How prediction markets are becoming a national security threat
Prediction markets allow those with insider information bet on national security issues, giving adversaries a potential heads-up.
01113
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Our new project Gambling on Democracy is now live! Follow here for tons of new research as we plunge into midterm season: acdatacollective.org/work/gamblin...
acdatacollective.org
Gambling on Democracy – ACDC
072
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 26/07/2026
🌈 🤍 by Elia Klinkenberg www.instagram.com/p/DbQDyqHjSR...
000
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/07/2026
Has a team ever finished a game over 120 minutes with 0 shots and 0.0 xG? And then maybe even won in penalties?!?
0151
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/07/2026
Statistics after 90 min, Argentina with 0.0 xG
0308
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/07/2026
If Argentina somehow pulls this off, it might be one of the most undeserved final wins
190
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Matthias @yellowled.de · 19/07/2026
Wir können ja im Gegenzug den Super Bowl ausrichten. Zwei Halbzeiten, in der Pause heute journal express, keine Werbung, dann Merte und Kramer, anschließend drei Folgen Wilsberg.
101348205
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/07/2026
If halftime show, then at least make it a great show, but whatever this is.
040
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/07/2026
Still no yellow cards for Argentina allowed apparently
3192
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/07/2026
Purposefully only turning the tv on at game time
010
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 18/07/2026
Da haben sich wirklich zwei gefunden
000
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 15/07/2026
Cape Verde is the people’s champ
071
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 15/07/2026
This is absurd
020
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 15/07/2026
I think the ref forgot his cards at home
000
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 15/07/2026
Only in Germany could you find a nice hotel and then it turns out you can’t pay with credit card.
000
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 15/07/2026
F#% idiots
030
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 14/07/2026
Well deserved win for Spain, super impressive performance. Would have been even more impressive without all the acting
020
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 13/07/2026
160
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
They sound like absolute mensches. RIP.
nytimes.com
Jayson Conner, 48, and Jeffrey Newman, 58, Die; Gave Thousands of Backpacks to Those in Need (Gift Article)
The couple, who died within a few days of each other, provided needed supplies, like socks and wet wipes, to people living on New York City’s streets.
8568135
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 11/07/2026
Obviously the turbulences were due to the captain’s bad piloting skills and the gays dancing too much on the plane
010
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Vielleicht zur Erinnerung, dass Kai Wegner nur deshalb Regierender Bürgermeister ist, weil Franziska Giffey und die SPD keine Koalition mit Grünen und Linken fortsetzen wollten. Mit kleinbürgerlicher Politik und Koalition wollte man sich neue Wählergruppen erschließen. Das läuft ausgezeichnet…
1026264
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 09/07/2026
Post the good news where you find them
071
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
🔴 New from ACDC 🔴 Lobbying for alleged criminals and corrupt politicians, and people under sanctions, is increasing in Washington. We dove into FARA filings by lobbyists working for natural persons, and found alarming attempts to undo anti-corruption enforcement by previous administrations.
acdatacollective.org
The Leniency Lobby: How the U.S. Lets Global Corruption off the Hook – ACDC
026
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
abgeordnetenwatch @abgeordnetenwatch.de · 08/07/2026
NEU: Angriff auf das #IFG: Diese Recherchen wären künftig so nicht mehr möglich (u.a. zu Spahns Maskenliste, Amthors Lobbybrief, Merkels Impfpatent-Wende, Lindners Porschegate-SMS, Schröders Lobbyaktivitäten) www.abgeordnetenwatch.de/recherchen/i....
abgeordnetenwatch.de
Diese Recherchen wären künftig nicht mehr möglich | abgeordnetenwatch
Briefe, E-Mails, Aktenvermerke: Das Informationsfreiheitsgesetz bringt immer wieder brisante Unterlagen ans Licht. Union und SPD wollen das Auskunftsrecht nun massiv einschränken. Acht Recherchen, die...
422894
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 04/07/2026
If you believe that the Quayzorg Federation can launch thousands of Omega-Class space freighters loaded with pregnant silicon-based Jubrul worms to crash into fields near Abilene, Kansas, and the wormlets they deliver nanoseconds before impact are US citizens, you don't believe in nationhood at all.
0271
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 01/07/2026
Whatever the final score, what a game by DRC!
110
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 01/07/2026
IMO, Harry Kane was flying before any contact. Good call
120
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Sanctioned North Korean vessels are now making more foreign port calls than at any point since before the pandemic. Coal produced by slave labor is smuggled abroad, with payments made to secret accounts at Chinese banks. Don't miss this important new report by NKHR & @datadesk.bsky.social.
nkhrcampaign.org
"SAILING SANCTIONS" | NKHR
131
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Georg Weizsäcker @georgweizsaecker.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
A letter from mainstream economists to the 🇩🇪 government, with a simple message: Renew and Electrify, to counter the energy crisis. www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE... 1/n
12815
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 23/06/2026
Dave was an amazing scholar and an incredibly kind man. When I first came to Duke as a slightly uninformed exchange student I had the idea to write my Diplom thesis on a comparison of Congress and the Bundestag. Dave offered his help and gave me a desk in PIPC. He will be missed.
060
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 21/06/2026
Immerhin eine #Hertha Mannschaft erreicht seine Ziele: die Hertha Frauen steigen auf. Glückwunsch! #hahohe
040
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Kathleen Bachynski @bachynski.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
“Norway is imposing a near ban on the use of generative AI tools by elementary school pupils while also restricting their use in the education of older children to prevent a ‌negative impact on learning, the country's prime minister said on Friday." @jackiantonovich.bsky.social
reuters.com
Norway imposes near ban on AI in elementary school
Norway is imposing a near ban on the use of generative AI tools by elementary school pupils while also restricting their ​use in the education of older children to prevent a ‌negative impact on learni...
41255338
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Jeff Sharlet @jeffsharlet.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
At the end of the term I asked my college creative wriing students to submit anonymous thoughts on AI. No real surprises: Mood ranges from resignation to despair, capitulation from embittered erosion of standards to total, feelings of betrayal from deep to furious. 1/
7455261988
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 13/06/2026
Talk about a return on investment
0274
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Schooley @schooley.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
It's not often that a living man gets such a vivid preview of how he will be mourned.
8357891009
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
With election markets proliferating on Polymarket, the upcoming U.S. midterms will test how platforms and the CFTC police insider trading by campaign insiders. We're pleased to have contributed analysis to this @reuters.com article by @dgillison.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/legal/govern...
reuters.com
Focus: US election betting boom to test prediction markets' insider trading controls
Prediction market watchdogs may struggle to police betting on the U.S. midterm elections, with thousands of races offering ever more ways for insiders to make a quick buck on a rising number of platfo...
021
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Rasmus Corlin Christensen @phdskat.org · 08/06/2026
𝐃𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐦 position, this! At Copenhagen Business School, we are hiring an associate professor (tenured position) in economic sociology/political economy. Great environment, great colleagues. I’m happy to talk to anyone interested.
cbs.dk
Associate Professorship in Economic Sociology and Market Governance
01311
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 08/06/2026
cc: new danish government #dkpol
011
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Tore Wig @torewig.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
We're hiring 2 postdocs at @uio.no on my ERC-Cog project on how authoritarian regimes shape scientific knowledge. 3–4 years, U. of Oslo. Deadline: 10 Sept 2026. Great dept., terms, well funded, bustling & green Scandi capital. Apply! 👉 jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/303060/postdoctoral-fello
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060) | University of Oslo
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow  (303060), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Thursday, September 10, 2026
07061
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
We helped @investigacecz.bsky.social reveal that a Russian war criminal and a far-right politician have a company together in Czechia. Experts say the company's financials look similar to those used in money laundering schemes. www.investigace.cz/valecny-zloc...
investigace.cz
Válečný zločinec v Česku spoluvlastní firmu s ruským politikem - investigace.cz
Alexey Moldavantsev podle Služby bezpečnosti Ukrajiny (SBU) vedl okupační policii v Nové Kachovce v Chersonské oblasti na jihu země, která unášela a mučila civilisty. Redakce...
064
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Peggy Stuart @peggystuart.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Here is Elon Mush bragging about how he "accidentally" canceled all Ebola prevention efforts.
951281497
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/05/2026
More opportunities for insider trading sold as innovation
0167
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
ACDC sat down with @60minutes.bsky.social for last night's episode, explaining that military insiders accused of illegal profiteering on Polymarket are not isolated cases but part of a systemic problem. www.cbsnews.com/news/predict...
cbsnews.com
Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations
Prediction market users are profiting from bets on war. Analysts say suspiciously timed bets, and the high win rates of wagers on military outcomes , are likely signs of insider trading.
133
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
daaaamn london
116176674691
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 16/05/2026
Young Falco was great #eurovision
010
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 16/05/2026
Btw, if you drive an EV, not only do you not need gasoline, you also don’t need oil changes
030
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Great to see insider trading on military event prediction markets getting the primetime treatment from @60minutes.bsky.social. Last month we revealed that 52% of long shot bets on military outcomes on Polymarket are successful, way over the platform average. acdatacollective.org/work/insider...
acdatacollective.org
Insider Risks in Polymarket Political Markets – ACDC
143
Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 13/05/2026
Very happy to have had @mollyeroberts.bsky.social present this paper on release day at EGB at CBS today. A massive study, super important and interesting work.
190
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Stephen Abbott Pugh @stephenabbottpugh.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Great to hear this @acdatacollective.bsky.social research into insider trading on prediction markets being mentioned by @kevinroose.com and @caseynewton.bsky.social on the Hard Fork podcast from @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/p...
nytimes.com
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School
065
Reposted by Florian Hollenbach
Frederik Obermaier @frederikobermaier.com · 30/04/2026
More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report @acdatacollective.bsky.social that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognised to the security of sensitive information.
ft.com
Half of ‘long shot’ Polymarket bets on military action are successful
High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets
0179