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Cameron Patrick

@cameronpat.bsky.social
2.9K followers 1.6K following 4.4K posts

biostatistician @ University of Melbourne Statistical Consulting Centre. enjoyer of multiple imputation, RCTs, and DAGs. always graph your data. also runs, bikes, hikes, etc. he/him #BiInSci 🏳️‍🌈 cameronpatrick.com

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Reposted by Cameron Patrick
Xan López @xanlopez.net · 6h
Well, that’s not the opening paragraph I expected.
1. Introduction

In the 1988 sci -fi roleplaying game Cyberpunk , the European Currency Unit serves as the global currency (colloquially referred to as “euro dollar”, “ed" or “eddie”) . In the story, the dismantling of US
democracy, a sovereign debt crisis and geopolitical mistakes
trigger the collap se of the United States . The European Economic
Community steps in and uses its well -regulated banking system and
single currency to displace the dollar’s hegemonic role.
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Cat Hicks @grimalkina.bsky.social · 15h
Nobody past the age of twenty should be obsessed with what people majored in in college and see it as the single defining choice that entirely shapes someone, deterministically, for all time
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 11h
co-sign this, but also, I just really don't like talking human language to computers. I don't like Google Maps telling me where to drive, I don't like asking Siri for anything, and I don't like Chatting to GPT
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 12h
"I don't understand X" seems commonly used as a polite form of "you explained X terribly" or "you are wrong about X and I am giving you an opportunity to realise that and correct yourself without losing face"
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 16h
preferential voting is truly Australia's national religion well, third national religion. after football and cricket
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 16h
urgh there is an LLM called GLM and this is messing with my brain that very strongly wants to read that as Generalised Linear Model
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 26/09/2026
like I suspect many of you on This Website, I think a core reason why I find Eliezer Yudkowsky and his rationalist and effective altruist satellites so intensely annoying is because I had a VERY similar “being a super weird, pretentious, hyper-literate kid” experience - I just, you know, grew up.
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Victor CR @viktorepo.xyz · 29/09/2026
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
this is biggest anti-EV curmudgeon rant at the moment: no EV sold in Australia comes with a spare wheel, or a convenient place for one. not good enough!!!
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Jensen is probably the most Jobs-like CEO left in the industry, in that he has a completely monomaniacal focus on producing and selling more GPUs no matter what. Things which are not relevant to that goal, such as knowing where you live, are discarded to fit more GPU sales ideas in his brain.
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We scream into the void. We stare blankly into the abyss. We post into the ether
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☀️ Starshine @starshine.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
[twink sauron, pretending not to cry] : you. you don’t understand how powerful the valar are, Manwë alone cou [eastern orc, probably]: Manwë? man, wë sure got a little bitch for a king
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
[stats version] why transform your variables? Efron and Wood solved this in 2007, just use the Generalised Additive Latent Semi-Parametric Bootstrap. obviously you'll need to specify a positive semi-definite residual covariance matrix. use {galspb2} in R or just write a custom likelihood in Stan
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Bruno Dias @brunodias.dev · 28/09/2026
It really doesn't make sense to attribute those job losses to AI-the-technology, because if that were the case we'd be observing AI outputs displacing conventional entertainment products, and they're clearly not. Rather, the impact of AI is that AI-the-business is crowding out other investment.
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I think this blog post is correct: a tendency to read idfic structures into reality is very damaging to people and it would help people, a lot, to acquire the skills to better understand how fictional enjoyment of something is very distinct from real yearning. aquarusa.wordpress.com/2026/09/28/t...
aquarusa.wordpress.com
The Id Unexamined
What do romance novels, isekai stories, video games, and right-wing theories of white replacement all have in common? They are all examples to some degree of id fiction — a kind of fiction th…
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
is anyone else getting real 2008 vibes from the finance/economics news lately? (or is this a case of... *elder millennial whose only experience of a bad economy is 2008*: sure feels like 2008 around here)
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"it's wharfie time" errrm did Ben Carroll tune out at three quarter time and fail to notice which team won the premiership on Saturday?
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Jessie L @jessielilley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is a juicy story
theage.com.au
NGV’s former IT chief accused of $8 million fraud from gallery
The National Gallery of Victoria’s former head of IT is accused of issuing hundreds of fake invoices over a number of years to steal $8 million from the institution.
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
tired of hearing about LLMs going rogue. can't they go warlock or paladin or druid instead?
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
twitch streamers 🤝 ai addicts chat is this good
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 27/09/2026
My friend: "I don't know what to get my family for Christmas!" Me:
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Australian term for "author":
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
i am once again encouraging grass-touching
a koala on a hiking trail, surrounded by grass and trees (Great Ocean Walk near Blanket Bay, Victoria)
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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Imagine you spent most of the year in a small dark bag in a forgotten corner of the most unused cupboard in the house. Then one day you are taken out, not just out, but out into the country. Wind in your hair, sun on your skin, soil under your feet. Then some punk tries to put you back in the bag
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
holidays georg was not an outlier and should have been counted?
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
too much poasting about philosophy of mind, not enough poasting about the real mysteries of our age: why does a tent never want to fit back into the stuff sack that is known to have previously contained that very tent
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
lololol "in response to the new rules prohibiting surcharging for credit card payments, we will be removing credit card payments from 1 October" - a major Australian payments platform
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John Flournoy @johnflournoy.science · 24/09/2026
Happy bisexuality visibility week
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André Brett @drdrehistorian.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Australian candidates for public office and campaigning on issues that are a responsibility of a different level of government, name a more iconic duo
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
the CSIRO instagram page has weekly Wombat Wednesday posts, which implies that there must be someone whose job it is to find and post cute wombat pics for Wombat Wednesday, and that may possibly be the best job in the world?
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
IT HAS BEGUN (people typo-ing the acronym for Linear Mixed Models, LMM, as LLM. at least this shows they didn't use an LLM to write about LMMs...)
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Martin Concagh @mconcagh.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
It has been almost entirely memory-holed how homophobic public opinion was in the US and most of the west until about 15 years ago.
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tj mahr 🤘 @tjmahr.com · 21/09/2026
*tears in my eyes*
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jenny tightpants @jtp.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"i have created the machine that thinks." you fucked up a perfectly good graphics card is what you did. look at it. it's got anxiety
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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Time to bring up an @scientificdiscovery.dev classic:
Screeshot of a tweet by Saloni. There is an image of a bald man. 

Text: Me, reading the headline: "Haha, I bet they didn't control for the effects of age."
*clicks link to read the paper*
"Holy..., they actually didn't control for age."
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
apropos of the yanks on here doing New York discourse: one of the greatest things about Melbourne is that it's Australia's second biggest city but also one of the cheapest, making it attractive to Cool Weirdos. (perhaps less true recently than it used to be, but also becoming more true again?)
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James Elder @jameselder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Innit.
Nearly 60 years ago, the artist Mierle Laderman Ukeles wrote an essay
 titled "Manifesto for Maintenance Art 1969!". She argued that the work of
 maintenance is often unappreciated and devalued - "a drag; it takes all the
 fucking time" - next to the more celebrated work of creation. "After the
 revolution, who's going to pick up the garbage on Monday morning?" asked
 Ukeles, who has served as the artist in residence for the New York City
 Department of Sanitation since 1977. She argued that society "confers lousy
 status" on those who do maintenance.
 This is perhaps truer than ever in the era of the "creator economy" and tech
 industrialists who burn and build and move fast and break things. To the
 "creators" go wealth and prestige while the maintainers work in the
 background, scraping rust and justifying their existence to a society that takes
 them for granted.
 Add to this a generation of generative Al tools designed and marketed as
 instruments of creation. These tools have made it trivial to make images, write
 novels, build software and pollute the internet with slop. Rarely has a tech CEO
 touted an AI tool that will "supercharge maintenance".
 ". Maintenance is careful
 work and not easily shortcut.
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Matthew Noe @noethematt.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
"Do you want a login code emailed or to use your password?" I want to use my password "Okay enter your password" <enters it> "Thanks, now go check your email for a code we sent you" WHY ASK ME THEN WHY CAN'T I JUST USE PASSWORDS FOR LITERALLY ANYTHING ANYMORE
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Dan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
New preprint! 🎉 I analysed 1660 papers from 4 psychology journals and found materials sharing went from 9% of papers in 2015 to 82% in 2025, and these materials *do* get downloaded — a median of 135 times each. BUT shared code is often hard to run. doi.org/10.31234/osf... Let's walk through it 🧵
Two-panel figure. Panel a is a flow diagram tracking 1,611 empirical psychology articles from publication year (545 in 2015, 552 in 2020, 514 in 2025) to repository-link type: 785 link an OSF project, 85 link another platform, and 741 link no repository. Of those with an OSF link, download counts were retrieved for 670 and not retrieved for 115. Panel b is a line chart of the share of empirical papers linking OSF across 2015, 2020 and 2025. The overall rate, shown as a dashed black line, rises from 9% to 57% to 82%. All four journals rise steeply and end close together: Psychological Science 92%, JESP 89%, JML 83%, Cognition 76%, with Psychological Science highest throughout.Three-panel figure. Panel a: ridgeline plot of downloads per file by material type on a log scale, with the percentage never downloaded labelled for each — archive 16% of 545 files, documents 20% of 2,970, code 12% of 3,471, other 17% of 1,646, data 21% of 10,051, media 35% of 2,120, images 35% of 4,102. Most files cluster between 1 and 10 downloads, with long right tails past 100. Panel b: ridgeline plot of downloads per paper by journal, log scale, with dashed median lines; Psychological Science is highest, then JESP, JML and Cognition. Panel c: stacked bars showing, for documents, data and code separately, the share of papers by download band (0, 1–10, 11–100, more than 100) in 2015, 2020 and 2025. The share exceeding 100 downloads falls sharply over time in all three types, from roughly two-thirds in 2015 to a quarter or less in 2025, as the 1–10 band grows.Four-panel figure. Panel a: statistical languages detected among 333 papers with retrievable code — R 88%, SPSS 12%, Stata 4%, SAS 1%. Panel b: code red flags among those 333 papers — 34% hard-code an absolute path, 40% reference a missing file — above documentation among 672 OSF-linked papers — 21% have a README, 30% are documented by README, description or wiki. Panel c: among 562 Elsevier papers with no repository link, 44% (245) host at least one journal supplementary file but only 14% (77) host data, code or an archive. Panel d: composition of those 448 hosted files — documents 52%, data 21%, media 9%, other 7%, archive 6%, code 3%, images 1%. The code panels are green, the journal-supplement panels blue.Coefficient plot (download predictors)

Dot-and-whisker plot of three standardised predictors of OSF download volume, each with a 95% confidence interval. Repository size (number of files) has the largest effect at about 0.76, citations about 0.38, and altmetric attention about 0.12. All three intervals sit entirely above zero, so each predicts more downloads, with repository size roughly twice the effect of citations and six times that of attention. X-axis: standardised effect, −0.2 to 1.0.
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
There is too much Discourse occuring on this site for a weekend. Wishing everyone a very touch grass.
Melbourne, from Bourke's Lookout (Mount Dandenong)Mountain ash trees
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Alan Allport @alanallport.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
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First Wordle Problems @fwordleproblems.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A pizza is a very wide noodle with stuff on it
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Instead of the Kinsey scale we need the Lindley scale for statistical orientation: 0 - exclusively frequentist 1 - occasionally tempted by a posterior 2 - frequentist in practice but relaxed about it ... 5 - Bayesian in practice but not subjectivist 6 - Savage Bayesian X - data scientist
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
look by Australian standards this is a low-crocodile river
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
amused that segyges has more followers on here than aella
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André Brett @drdrehistorian.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Also, let me be very clear here: we do not need to just push back at policy proposals like this that chase ON voters who will always choose the full-throated racists over half-arsed attempts to win them back. We need to reject the premise that migration *should* be lower
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André Brett @drdrehistorian.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Higher education is already one of Australia's most important exports, and right now the US is torpedoing its until-now highly lucrative higher ed sector. With global talent now looking elsewhere, we should make ourselves *more* appealing to prospective international students rather than less
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Stats For Bios @statsforbios.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Reminder that "wiggly" is absolutely a technical statistical term. No discussion needed.
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SE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm back, I missed you all. Since this is an important subject I know too much about, here's a 🧵 explaining that AI Safety Is Mostly A Sex Cult. I don't think these people should make policy. (1/?) (alternative title: Time For Some Cult Theory)
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
whenever people talk about METR (the AI evaluator people) my mind mentally substitutes Metyr (the creepy finger boss from Elden Ring)
Metyr, Mother of Fingers from the Elden Ring DLC
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